Jan 4: E-Stories
Day679 UAPows Alrosa Kharkiv Mykolaiv Odesa CombatSit F16s BehindLines Kuleba InRussia Allies POL EU Norway A&P Newsweek Zelensky Avdeeva ISW UKDef NATO NoelReport CDS Amanpour Gic Melikishvili Kenyon
Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
Almost 230 Ukrainian soldiers and civilians were returned from Russian captivity. Soldiers, sergeants, officers. Soldiers of the Armed Forces, National Guard, Navy, Border Guards. A part of them defended Mariupol and Azovstal. A joyful moment for the loved ones of the Mariupol fighters and their families amidst so much suffering.
The Russian Ministry of Defense released footage of Russian POW's that were released as part of the deal between Ukraine and Russia. Allegedly 248 Russian servicemen were released.
President Zelensky's evening speech:
Today, despite all the challenges, there is good news for a long time. There was a long pause in the exchanges, but there was no pause in the negotiations regarding the exchanges. We use every opportunity, we try all mediation options. At every international meeting that can be of help, we raise the topic of the return of our captives. And we will continue to work to bring back all our people.
Stories we’re following…
The European Union on Wednesday imposed sanctions on Russia’s state-run diamond giant Alrosa and its CEO as part of a ban on imports of the precious stones over the Ukraine war.
The EU in December agreed to prohibit diamonds exported from Russia as it tightens sanctions to further sap the Kremlin’s coffers.
The 27-nation bloc added Alrosa, the world’s largest diamond mining company, and its chief executive Pavel Marinychev to a blacklist subject to a visa ban and asset freeze in the EU.
The EU said the company - which accounts for 90 percent of RussiRussia’s diamond production - “constitutes an important part of an economic sector that is providing substantial revenue to the government.”
Russia’s diamond exports totalled around $4 billion in 2022.
Russia launched Shahed attack drones on Odesa on Dec 3 the Air Force of the Ukrainian Armed Forces reported on Telegram. "Attention! Threat of attack UAVs from the south! Several groups of Shahed drones spotted in the south of Mykolaiv Oblast, heading northwest". At 20:46, a threat of attack UAVs in Odesa Oblast was reported. At 21:18, it was clarified that a group of Shahed drones from Mykolaiv Oblast is moving towards Kirovohrad Oblast.
Preliminary strikes on the centre of Kharkiv. All relevant services are working at the arrival sites." Mayor Terekhov reports. Russia has launched two strikes on Kharkiv, preliminary with S-300 missiles. There are no wounded at the moment, but damage to civilian non-residential infrastructure in the city centre. Russian attacks were reported on Sumy Oblast as well.
Ukrainians giving a hand in clearing rubble and cleaning up in Kyiv in areas bombarded by the Russians in the past 6 days.
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has stated on 3 January that its experts had been recently banned from inspecting the reactor halls of three power units at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) for the first time as per the agency’s statement.
Oleksandr Kubrakov, Ukraine’s deputy prime minister for restoration, said today that the first family concluded a property purchase agreement using compensation for destroyed housing, and plans to move to a new home in Bucha. The deputy prime minister added:
We want those Ukrainians who need it to feel confident applying for governmental support toward repairing houses or buying new property. Especially if this will let them come back to Ukraine from abroad as did this first family.
Almost all Ukrainians who left country in 2023 already back - research. More than 32 million border crossings were recorded in Ukraine in 11 months of 2023. At the same time, the difference between those who left and those who crossed back in is below 1%.
Combat Situation Update
Within the past 24 hours, 47 combat encounters occurred on the front. The Russians launched six missile attacks, 42 airstrikes and 18 attacks from multiple-launch rocket systems the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported on Facebook.
Shakhtarsk, Kupiansk and Lyman fronts, the Russians did not conduct offensive (assault) actions.
Bakhmut front: the Defence Forces repelled four attacks near the settlements of Bohdanivka and Andriivka in Donetsk Oblast, where the Russians were trying to improve their tactical positions, but to no avail.
Avdiivka front: the Defence Forces repelled nine Russian attacks near the settlements of Novobakhmutivka, Avdiivka, and 19 more near Sieverne, Pervomaiske and Nevelske in Donetsk Oblast. There, the Russians, supported by aircraft, were trying to improve their tactical positions, but to no avail.
Marinka front: the Defence Forces continue deterring the Russians near the settlements of Heorhiivka and Novomykhailivka in Donetsk Oblast, where the Russians, supported by aircraft, were trying to improve their tactical positions 11 times, but to no avail.
Zaporizhzhia front: the Defence Forces repelled a Russian attack near the settlement of Robotyne in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, where the Russians were unsuccessfully trying to take back the positions they had lost.
The Russians do not abandon their efforts to push the Ukrainian forces out of their footholds on the left bank of the Dnipro River. During the day, the Russians carried out 8 unsuccessful assault actions, but the Ukrainian soldiers kept holding their positions and inflicting heavy losses on the Russians.
ISW Assessment: Putin identified the West as Russia’s “enemy” and implied that Russia is fighting in Ukraine in order to defeat the West.
Putin responded to a Russian serviceman’s question about Western aid to Ukraine during a meeting at a military hospital in Moscow Oblast on January 1, stating that Russia’s issue is not necessarily that the West is aiding Ukraine, but rather that the West is Russia's "enemy."
Putin added that “Ukraine by itself is not an enemy for [Russia],” but that Western-based actors “who want to destroy Russian statehood” and achieve the “strategic defeat of Russia on the battlefield” are Russia’s enemies.
Putin said that the problem is not in Western aid deliveries to Ukraine and noted that Ukraine has already been “completely destroyed,” that there is “nothing left” of the country, and that it “exists only on handouts.”
Putin implied that Russia is fighting an existential war against the West in Ukraine and noted that Western rhetoric has recently refocused on how to “quickly end the conflict.”
This phrasing implies that Putin sees a conflict and potential negotiations between Russia and the West – not a conflict and potential negotiations between Russia and Ukraine.
Putin’s framing of his war in Ukraine as a Russian struggle against the West – and not Ukraine – indicates that he does not intend to negotiate in good faith with Ukraine and is setting information conditions aimed at convincing the West to betray Ukraine through negotiations.
Putin may be expanding his war aims in Ukraine to include confrontation with the West in an effort to set conditions for permanent Russian military buildup and to justify high battlefield sacrifices.
Me: please note that Russia hasn’t changed an iota since 1917 when it declared ‘capitalism’ as the evil force in the world that had to be eradicated. The Russian leadership has changed over time, but the forma mentis remains the same: Russia defines itself in opposition to the West. Now our leaders need to decide if we’re going to fight back or allow Russia to gobble us up. I don’t say this lightly.
The SBU conducted two succesful attacks on the Crimean bridge: October 2022 with a truck full of explosives and July 2023 with Sea Baby naval drones. Russian occupiers install additional barriers along Kerch Bridge – OSINT analyst.
"There will be many surprises to come. And not only the Crimean bridge. The bridge is doomed," SBU Head Vasyl Malyuk emphasized in a 30 min video.
Poland scrambles F-16s to defend airspace during Russian attacks on Ukraine. Poland, a NATO member, made the decision to mobilize fighter jets on the morning of Jan. 2, as Russian forces launched another large-scale aerial attack on Ukraine.
Christiane Amanpour: “There are sufficient resources to provide Ukraine with the help we’re requesting. All the west has to do is to start believing in itself, in its capacity to prevail.” Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba describes Russia’s latest assaults on Kyiv and what Ukraine needs to win.”
Behind the Lines
The Government of Ukraine plans to increase the production of Ukrainian defense production in 2024 sixfold. In 2024, Ukraine plans to spend more than UAH 265 billion (~$7 billion) on the purchase, production and repair of weapons, Prime Minister Shmyhal announced.
Putin’s speeches will be shown to schoolchildren in the temporarily occupied Mariupol, according to the Mariupol City Council.
The occupiers systematically continue to impose their ideology on Mariupol's children. They hold 'Important talks' at schools, calling killers 'heroes,' and supply Russian textbooks to school libraries," the statement reads.
Reportedly, the so-called Ministry of Education and Science of the Donetsk People's Republic has already released a plan for educational activities for 2024. They plan to educate children by showing video recordings of meetings between the Russian dictator and international criminal Putin with students.
ISW: Putin hopes to convince West to betray Ukraine. The Russian leader sees the war against Ukraine as a war between Russia and the West, rather than a direct attack on Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) wrote on Jan. 2.
Latvian court orders asylum for Russian who fought for Ukraine. An administrative district court in Latvia ordered to grant asylum to a Russian citizen who fought for Ukraine in 2014, the Delfi news outlet reported on Jan. 2.
BBC: Suspected of high treason, former SBU general Andriy Naumov, who was sentenced to 1 year in prison for money laundering in Serbia, was released. Ukraine asked Serbia to extradite him, but Serbia refused, considering the case to be political persecution.
Ukrinform National News Agency of Ukraine and the Center for Countering Disinformation are launching a new joint project, About the War, which will cover the issues related to the front, fake news stories, influencers’ posts, and the urgent war-related problems. The project presenters will be Lieutenant of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Andrii Kovalenko and Control Officer of the 12th Brigade ‘Azov’ of the National Guard of Ukraine Dmytro ‘Diplomat’.
Meanwhile in Russia
Intelligence: Putin's party recruits people for its own mercenary company. The Russian ruling party, United Russia, is recruiting members for its own "private army," the mercenary company Hispaniola, the HUR said on Jan. 3.
Russia intends to create and finance shell enterprises in Uzbekistan for the assembly of drones using foreign electronic components. This move is seen as an attempt by Moscow to use Tashkent to circumvent international sanctions imposed due to its large-scale war against Ukraine, reports the National Resistance Center (NRC).
In particular, this was discussed during a meeting between the leaders of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) on December 26, 2023, Russian dictator Vladimir Putin and Uzbekistan's President, Shavkat Mirziyoyev.
"Preliminary agreements have been reached regarding the creation of a number of shell companies on the territory of Uzbekistan, which will be financed by the Russian government," the article states.
On New Year's Eve, the St. Petersburg police detained over 3000 migrants from Central Asia. It is part of a plan called Operation Azamat developed three months ago: to replenish the Russian army in Ukraine.
Me: I had seen a series of videos posted on Russian TG channels on New Years Eve and that was my first thought. Please remember that the Russian armed forces are used to driving into a village and rounding up men to bring to the front.
Allied Support
Countries in the West are likely to initiate the confiscation of Russian assets for the benefit of Ukraine as early as 2024. To achieve this, they are expected to establish unified rules, says the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine, Dmytro Kuleba, during a telethon broadcast.
The Minister shared that there are specific developments regarding the confiscation of assets in the United States and the European Union. Additionally, Belgium has already redirected taxes on income from Russian assets to support Ukraine.
"Now we are in the second phase, where all efforts need to be consolidated into a unified legal framework. That is, unified rules for EU countries and G7 need to be established," clarified Kuleba.
Polish Foreign Minister, Radoslaw Sikorski, called for the transfer of long-range missiles to Ukraine for strikes against Russia. He advised:
“We should respond to the latest onslaught on Ukraine in language that Putin understands: by tightening sanctions so that he cannot make new weapons with smuggled components and by giving Kyiv long range missiles that will enable it to take out launch sites and command centers.”
Me: Some analysts have been saying this for quite some time and marvel at that fact that the Ukrainians are still bound to one of the five principles, undersigned at the onset of Russia’s full-scale invasion, which prohibit the Ukrainian forces to strike military targets inside Russia. Sikorski is the first to say the quiet part outloud.
The NATO Support and Procurement Agency said today that it will support a group of countries with a contract for up to 1,000 Patriot Guidance Enhanced Missiles. In a statement, the agency said:
The NATO Support and Procurement Agency (NSPA) will support a coalition of nations, including Germany, the Netherlands, Romania and Spain, with a contract for a combined quantity of up to 1,000 Patriot™ Guidance Enhanced Missiles (GEM-T), if all options are exercised.
The contract includes qualification of updated components, addition of new suppliers, test equipment, and spares to support future sustainment. Other user nations are expected to benefit from the conditions of the contract.
German government now not planning to supply Taurus missiles to Ukraine. Germany condemns another war crime committed by Russia against Ukraine – massive missile attacks on December 29 and January 2, but it does not plan to deliver Taurus cruise missiles to the country at this time.
Shaping Perceptions: Now the Trump talking heads are seeding the idea that the U.S. Supreme Court will not want to look like it’s siding with Trump, and so they won’t rule in his favour. The SC will look political. So the Trump info machine is trying to shape perception. Trump’s MAGA base will be able to rally around this call. It’s also a direct threat to the Supreme Court Justices:
Newsweek: The U.S. has sent around 20 ATACMS so far, The New York Times reported, citing two Western officials. These missiles were used "immediately and with great effect" by Ukraine, Lieutenant General (Retired) Ben Hodges, former commander of U.S. Army Europe, told Newsweek. With the war showing no signs of coming to an end anytime soon, questions are emerging over the future use of the long-range missiles, with attention focusing on U.S. stockpiles of expired ATACMS.
There are various types of ATACMS with different ranges and warheads.Hundreds of Lockheed Martin-made M39 and M39A1 missiles that are "excellent legal, precision-guided cluster weapons" are scheduled for destruction at "significant" expense to American taxpayers, said Daniel Rice, a former special adviser to Ukraine's lead commander, General Valery Zaluzhny.
They could be shipped off to Ukraine and used "very effectively" against Moscow's forces, he told Newsweek.
There are no concerns about the expiry date of this type of missile, he insisted.
"They work," he added. "All weapons are eventually replaced by better, more lethal, more cost-effective weapons," he said, but they could make all the difference for Ukraine's war effort. Not sending ATACMS based on shelf life is a political decision, rather than one concerned with safety, Hodges added.
Longer-range MGM-140 ATACMS are still used by the U.S., presenting a different and more difficult political and military challenge, Rice said. But there are "tens of thousands" of outdated rockets of various types that Ukraine could fire from HIMARS waiting to be destroyed, said Fabian Hinz, a research fellow specializing in Middle East defense and military analysis at the International Institute for Strategic Studies think tank, and the U.S. is also looking towards its new Precision Strike Missile to take the ATACMS' place.
With enough M39s, Ukraine could disrupt Russian supplies from Crimea to its forces in southern Ukraine, also known as the land bridge, Rice said. From where the front lines are currently located in the south and the east of the country, Ukraine's M39 ATACMS can reach the Sea of Azov and target key assets in Russian-occupied territory, he added. With more ATACMS, Ukraine can make "prime targets" out of Russian bases, infrastructure and troop formations across tens of thousands of square miles of territory, he said.
Ariana Gic: Summary of Interview with Ogrysko, ex FM Ukraine
Insightful interview with former Ukrainian Foreign Minister Ogrysko.
He says THE fatal mistake the West made from the 90's which allowed Putin grow into a monster threatening the world, was the refusal to see Russia as an aggressive, criminal regime.
Ohryzko made many direct and honest comments about his term as Ukraine's Former Minister in Yulia Tymoshenko's government in 2007-2009. Ohryzko said that Tymoshenko and then president Yushchenko had completely opposite views on Ukraine's future.
Ohryzko says that among many principled differences between Tymoshenko and Yushchenko, the most important was regarding Russia.
Because of her "economic" interests, Tymoshenko wanted to pivot Ukraine towards Russia. Yushchenko was resolutely opposed to that.
President Yushchenko wanted to reform Ukraine as a European country. Tymoshenko was interested in Russian gas in order to benefit from it politically and otherwise.
Ohryzko believes Tymoshenko made the 2009 Moscow gas deals with Putin to get his support for her presidential bid in 2010 elections. He shared that Yushchenko learned about Tymoshenko's deal with Putin not from Tymoshenko's government but from Ukrainian intelligence sources in Russia. Tymoshenko's own ministers didn't know the terms of her agreement with Putin.
Ohryzko says that Russia used gas supplies as a corruption bate for political establishment in Kyiv.
Russia created fake "debts" for gas supplies to avoid paying for the lease of their Black Sea Fleet base in Crimea. "Gas princess" Tymoshenko contributed to that as she pursued interests to make Ukraine more dependent on Russian gas.
Ohryzko says Tymoshenko didn't care about [Ukraine's strategic pro-western course], like when the Charter of the Security Partnership with the U.S. was signed, because there was no material gain for her.
Ohryzko stressed that during his presidency, Yushchenko issued decrees which made it impossible for Russian Black Sea fleet to freely operate in Crimea. Russians felt so much pressure to leave Ukraine that they were urging their command to move the fleet to a base in Russia.
Ohryzko believes that if Yushchenko remained in power for a second term, the Russian Black Sea fleet would have been forced out of Crimea and the Russian invasion of Ukraine may have been averted.
In 2008, Ukraine supported Georgia against Russia's aggression. Yushchenko was afraid that Ukraine would be next, and wanted to sign a bilateral security agreement with the United States.
When Ohryzko told Condoleezza Rice that Ukraine would be Russia's next target she laughed and said Ukraine is not a small country like Georgia, and that Putin wouldn't dare attack Ukraine - the biggest country in Europe. The US government consequently declined to sign a security agreement.
It's also important to note that Ohryzko said that he is "absolutely convinced that allegations of corruption of Yushchenko were totally unfounded."
This is an important point:
This corroborates what many have argued: that the "corrupt Yushchenko" narrative was a Russian disinformation campaign aided by Moscow's affiliates in Ukraine to assassinate pro-Ukrainian and pro-Western Yushchenko's political image and thereby subvert his future political career.