Jan 6 Buonasera Mag
Day 316: Bakhmut Donetsk NoCeasefire Balkans Priogzhin UAgdp Patriots SeaSparrow Balaklia Turkey JP/G7 Lukashenko-A&Ps-Avdeeva UKDef Patrikarakos Cohen Eckel Sumlenny Roy Lucas Ben-Ghiat
Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
Stories we’re following…
Satellite images show Bakhmut before and after Russian invasion. New satellite imagery published by U.S. satellite imagery company Maxar shows before and after images of the besieged city of Bakhmut in Ukraine's Donetsk Oblast.
Ukrainian General Staff: Russian troops focus efforts on capturing Donetsk Oblast, conducting offensive operations toward Bakhmut and Lyman. According to the Ukrainian military, Moscow's forces attacked Bakhmut, 12 settlements nearby, and four settlements near Lyman.
Ukrainian presidential adviser Mykhailo Podolyak dismissed the call for a cease-fire as “a cynical trap and an element of propaganda.” President Volodymyr Zelenskyy had proposed a Russian troop withdrawal earlier, before Dec. 25, but Russia rejected it.
Biden: Putin is trying to 'find some oxygen’ and possibly regroup by offering Ukraine a ceasefire. "He was ready to bomb hospitals and nurseries, and churches on the 25th (of December) and New Year's. I mean, I think he is trying to find some oxygen," Biden told reporters.
The EU’s top diplomat, Josep Borrell, has described an announcement by Vladimir Putin of a 36-hour ceasefire to mark Orthodox Christmas as “not credible”, adding that the Russian president’s order appeared to be an attempt by Moscow to “buy time to regroup its troops”. He added:
It was Russia that launched this illegitimate aggression. When the aggressor talks of a ceasefire, I think the response that comes to us all is scepticism in the face of such hypocrisy.
AFP journalists report hearing both outgoing and incoming shelling in the frontline at Bakhmut in eastern Ukraine on Friday after the Russian ceasefire was supposed to have come into effect.
Russia reportedly hiring mercenaries in the Balkans. The Balkans are the main source of mercenary fighters for Russia, according to the National Resistance Center, an organization operated by Ukraine's Special Forces. According to the center, a key figure in the recruitment process is veteran Serbian mercenary sniper, Deyan Berich, who fought for Russia against Ukraine in 2014. Another important Serb mercenary was identified as Zika Radoic, who is currently fighting for Russia.
Belarusian Defense Ministry: Russian troops continue to arrive in the country. In addition to coordinating combat activities, joint flight and tactical training would also be held to increase the combat readiness of aviation units from both countries, the ministry added.
Reuters: US believes Prigozhin wants control of salt, gypsum mines in Bakhmut. The United States believes that Russian dictator Vladimir Putin's close ally Yevgeny Prigozhin has invested his troops in the fight for Bakhmut because of an interest in the salt and gypsum from mines near the city, Reuters reported, citing a White House official.
Ukraine’s GDP fell by 30.4% in 2022. “This is objectively the worst result since independence (in 1991), but better than most experts predicted at the beginning of (Russia’s) full-scale invasion, when estimates ranged from 40-50% and more,” the ministry said.
Pentagon considers training Ukrainian soldiers on Patriot in US. The U.S. Defense Department said on Jan. 5 that the country is considering bringing Ukrainians to the U.S. to train on the Patriot missile system and training overseas “or a combination of both.”
U.S. hands over Sea Sparrow anti-aircraft missiles to Ukraine for the first time, - Politico These ground-based missiles are radar-guided and are used to intercept aircraft or cruise missiles.
Anti-drone tools, logistics equipment among new batch of German military aid to Ukraine. The aid package includes rocket launchers mounted on pickup trucks, drone detection systems, reconnaissance drones, tracked and remote controlled infantry vehicles for support tasks, anti-drone sensors and jammers, and other assorted support vehicles and equipment.
Erdogan urges Putin to implement unilateral ceasefire, 'vision for a fair solution' in Ukraine war. "President Erdogan said calls for peace and negotiations should be supported by a unilateral ceasefire and a vision for a fair solution," the conversation readout said.
The eurozone annual inflation rate fell for a second month in a row to 9.2 percent in December, the first drop into single digits since September, the EU statistics agency said Friday.
As chair of the G7 in 2023, Japan intends to significantly increase support for Ukraine and sanctions against Russia, -Japanese Prime Minister Hirokazu Matsuno. He also signalled the possibility of a visit by Prime Minister Fumio Kishida to Ukraine in the future.
Demonstrators in several European Union capitals and other nations around the world have held rallies in front of Georgian diplomatic missions to demand the immediate release of former Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili from prison due to the deteriorating state of his health.
Mike Eckel nails it…
Raphael S Cohen, Gian Gentile, The Myth of America’s Ukraine Fatigue- Foreign Policy
No, the U.S. public isn’t giving up on Ukraine.
As the Ukraine war grinds into its second year, one of the big strategic questions is whether or not Americans and their allies are growing tired of the war. Indeed, there are media accounts of unnamed senior U.S. officials warning Kyiv about this concern—and Ukrainians, understandably, also worry that their Western backers might grow tired of the war. The question of whether Western support for Ukraine is waning has kept the pollsters busy and dominated the opinion pages. In all likelihood, this was a major reason why Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky traveled to Washington earlier this month, leaving his country for the first time since the war began.
But just how real is Americans’ war fatigue? Less than it seems, most likely.
Much of the concern about the United States suffering from war fatigue stems from a series of polls of the American electorate that found popular support for Ukraine slipping. Separate surveys from the Wall Street Journal, the Chicago Council on Global Affairs, and the Ronald Reagan Presidential Foundation and Institute found that, while an overwhelming majority of Americans still backed Ukraine and believed Russia was the aggressor, a growing minority—particularly among Republicans—believed the United States was providing too much aid and that the war was costing the United States too much.
Sergej Sumlenny: Ukrainski Rubezhi and Maryna
With your donations, not only this powerful 3600W station has been funded, but also music instruments, as Maryna‘s husband teaches teenagers in a local band to play music and to compose. They were totally happy to get new equipment: to replace what the Russians have destroyed.
The schools and churches have been destroyed. In the yards one can see memorials forschte victims of the Russian aggression.
Denny Roy, What Explains Chinese Aggression?- The National Interest
The consensus among outside analysts that China’s foreign policy has recently (since about 2010) become more “assertive” has fueled a new round of discussion on the possible causal relationship between China’s domestic politics and its external behavior. The issue is whether tensions between the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and other states stem from China simply being a great power, or from China’s unique internal characteristics—an authoritarian state, ruled by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), with a particular historical background. Both explanations are partially correct.
The two most recent U.S. presidential administrations have embraced the idea that China’s domestic political characteristics generate external conflict. Under the Trump administration, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo argued that the United States and other free countries could not be safe in a world where the CCP controls China. President Joe Biden has attributed the crisis in U.S.-China relations to the PRC’s authoritarian political system.
Programming Note with Scott Lucas…
Scott fills us in on what is happening at the State Capitol.
More on the GOP…
I'm with you as a Canadian-Italian!