Jan 6: E-Stories
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Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
Some good news via Mariana Betsa: Halyna Fedyshyn, a combat medic released from captivity, got engaged to her boyfriend, Mykola Hrytsenyak, also a defender of Ukraine. They went through the battles for Mariupol together and were separated by the war.
Stories we’re following…
"At night, Russia attacked Kurakhove in the Donetsk region with five S-300 missiles," the Ministry of Internal Affairs said. 4 apartment buildings, a kindergarten, a school, a cafe, a preventive clinic and administrative buildings were damaged. Luckily there are no victims.
Authorities: Russian attacks on Kherson Oblast kill 1, injure 3. Russian forces struck Novotiahynka and Stanislav in Kherson Oblast, killing a person and injuring another three, regional authorities reported on Jan. 4.
Russian shelling of Nikopol in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast injures 2 civilians. Both of the victims suffered leg injuries. One of them is in serious condition, the Governor Serhii Lysak noted.
French Foreign Ministry on Belgorod strike: Russia 'bears full responsibility' for human casualties. France's Foreign Ministry commented on a Dec. 30 strike on the Russian city of Belgorod, saying at a press briefing on Jan. 3 that Russia, as the aggressor in the war, bears responsibility for civilian casualties on its own soil.
Vehicle traffic on the Crimean Bridge is blocked. Russian channels are reporting probable launches for Ukrainian aviation towards occupied Crimea.
Combat Situation Update
ISW: The Kremlin explicitly intends to reconstitute its large-scale warfighting capability — an effort that disproportionally depends on whether Russia keeps or loses its gains in Ukraine.
Commander: Russia doubles attacks in southeastern sector. Over the past day, Tarnavskyi said that Russian forces in the sector had launched almost 900 artillery barrages, 25 airstrikes, and dozens of assaults on Ukrainian positions. As a result of the clashes, Russia suffered heavy losses, including 423 personnel and 72 pieces of military equipment.
Ukraine attacked a Russian military unit near Yevpatoria in Russian-occupied Crimea on Thursday, Ukrainian air force commander Mykola Oleshchuk said. On Telegram, he said: “Thanks to the air force pilots and everyone who planned the operation for perfect combat work.”
Explosions were reported in Dzhankoi, Saky and other locations in Crimea. As I’ve stated in previous editions of E-Stories, strikes against Dzankoi are important because it is a hub for the Russians. Noel Report comments on the Russian channels which claim 50 air targets have already been shot down. Also a missile alert has been declared in Crimea. Ukrainian UAV's are reportedly moving towards the Crimean bridge. Explosions also reported in Berdyansk, occupied Zaporizhzia region, Bilgorod, and Novorossyisk, Russia. This means that the Ukrainians are attacking all the sensitive military bases. Most of the Russian navy was moved to Novorossyisk.
"Air defense systems on duty destroyed and intercepted 36 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles over the territory of the Republic of Crimea and one UAV over the territory of the Krasnodar Territory," the Russian Defense Ministry claims.
While Ukraine is attacking Crimea, Russia responds with UAV groups moving south from Kherson towards the Dnipropetrovsk region, air defense is active. Also, missile launches are reported towards Kharkiv/Chuhuiv. Russia additionally moved 2 Kalibr-carriers into the Black Sea.
On the night of January 4, a Russian Su-34 aircraft burned down at the Shagol airfield in Chelyabinsk, Russia. Initial reports by UP state that the GUR is responsible for an operation involving the destruction of this bomber.
Russia’s defence ministry said its forces had destroyed 10 Ukrainian missiles over the peninsula which were headed to their headquarters in Crimea.
Military intelligence: Russian Su-34 jet set on fire at Chelyabinsk airbase. Ukraine's military intelligence agency (HUR) shared a video of a fighter jet being set on fire at the Shagol airbase, confirming the incident, but did not explicitly take responsibility for the torching.
Behind the Lines
Russian hackers inside Ukraine's biggest telecoms company since at least May – Kyiv spy chief, a cyber-attack that should serve as a “big warning” to the west, Ukraine’s cyber spy chief told Reuters.
The hack, one of the most dramatic since Russia’s full-scale invasion nearly two years ago, knocked out services provided by Ukraine’s biggest telecoms operator for about 24 million users for days from 12 December.
In an interview, Illia Vitiuk, head of the Security Service of Ukraine’s (SBU) cybersecurity department, disclosed exclusive details about the hack, which he said caused “disastrous” destruction and aimed to land a psychological blow and gather intelligence.
The attack wiped “almost everything”, including thousands of virtual servers and PCs, he said, describing it as probably the first example of a destructive cyber-attack that “completely destroyed the core of a telecoms operator.”
Over 220 Russian soldiers surrender through 'I want to live' hotline. More than 220 Russian soldiers have surrendered to Ukraine via the "I want to live" hotline as of December, HUR spokesperson Vitalli Matviienko said, and another 1,000 cases are pending.
Minister of Digital Transformation Mykhailo Fedorov informed that Ukraine and Romania signed an agreement on cooperation in the field of 5G networks, restoration of telecom networks and increasing their stability.
Ukraine designates Lithuanian food company as 'international sponsor of war'. Lithuanian food company Viciunai Group has been added to Ukraine's list of "international sponsors of war" for its continued activities in the Russian market, the National Agency on Corruption Prevention (NACP) announced on Jan. 4.
Foreign Ministry condemns event on Russia's 'rebirth' of Mariupol to be held in Italy. Ukraine's Foreign Ministry condemned an event on the "rebirth" of Mariupol after Russia's brutal siege, planned by an Italian pro-Russian association, as propaganda and a provocation, Ukrainska Pravda reported on Jan. 4, citing Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Oleh Nikolenko.
Germany updated the list of lethal and non-lethal aid to Ukraine. Please note that while American aid is blocked at the U.S. Congress, Germany has kept a steady stream of aid to Ukraine. Many analysts and some German politicians have asked Chancellor Scholz to provide Tauruses to Ukraine, but he’s holding back for the time being. List provided by Noel Reports.
Meanwhile in Russia
Putin signs decree on giving Russian citizenship to foreign fighters. Foreign nationals who join the Russian Armed Forces will be able to apply for Russian citizenship, according to a decree signed by Russian President Vladimir Putin on Jan. 4.
Me: Pretty soon you’ll be able to buy the Russian passport and citizenship at a Walmart near you. The Russians are giving them away like hotcakes.
Russia is planning to buy short-range ballistic missiles from Iran, a step that would enhance Moscow’s ability to target Ukraine’s infrastructure, the Wall Street Journal reported on Thursday, citing US officials.
Last year, the White House said it was seeing more indications that Russia and Iran were expanding an unprecedented defence partnership that would help Moscow prolong its war in Ukraine as well as pose a threat to Iran’s neighbours, Reuters reports.
“The rockets that fired at Kyiv were made no earlier than September 2023, that is, literally under fire.
In my hands is the valve from the expansion tank of the Kh-101 rocket. It is marked 09.2023. The question of where and how the Russians, despite the sanctions, take American and Taiwanese trace elements for missiles remains unanswered. Because once that question is answered, concrete actions must be put in place to stop this criminal supply.”
Allied Support
Belgium will send two F-16Bs to Denmark and around fifty people between March and September to participate in the training of Ukrainian pilots. It will involve training not only pilots, but also Ukrainian technicians and mission planners.
Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni believes that further assistance to Ukraine with weapons is necessary in order to ensure parity on the battlefield with Russia, otherwise the war threatens to spread closer to her country.
The Nato chief, Jens Stoltenberg, will convene a meeting between Nato diplomats and officials from Ukraine on 10 January, after a recent wave of heavy Russian airstrikes on the country, the transatlantic defence alliance said on Thursday. The meeting, taking the format of the newly established Nato-Ukraine Council, was being convened at Kyiv’s request after missile and drone attacks on Ukrainian civilians, cities and towns, a Nato spokesperson said.
Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba:
To those who doubt Ukraine’s ability to defeat Russian aggression or Ukraine's partners' ability to provide adequate support, consider this:
At the height of the Cold War, the so-called "West" consisted of only 19–20 countries. Nonetheless, it ultimately outcompeted the Soviet Union and its Socialist Bloc, both of which comprised 20 currently sovereign states.
Today, only the countries providing military aid to Ukraine through the Ukraine Defense Contact Group, "Ramstein," number more than 50.
Modern Russia is far weaker than the USSR, with only three outcast allies providing it with weapons: Belarus, the DPRK, and Iran.
Cold War: 20-20.
Today: 50-4.
The combined GDP of the current Western coalition providing military aid to Ukraine is 21 times greater than the combined GDP of Russia and its allies.
The West: $57 trillion.
Russia and allies: $2,7 trillion.
According to the Estonian Ministry of Defense, if NATO countries invested merely 0.25% of their GDP in military aid to Ukraine, it would generate €120 billion in defense support each year. A sum large enough to assure Ukraine’s victory and just peace.
Of course, no one wants another Cold War. But it is also naive to believe that Russia would not dare to attack a NATO country if it had succeeded in Ukraine. Therefore, Ukraine’s victory and the restoration of a just peace in Europe are existential strategic goals for the Euro-Atlantic community.
We do not ask anyone to fight for us. All we need is assistance that is timely and appropriate for the challenge we are facing. Figures show that it is not a matter of resources but of the West believing in itself and defining a clear goal of victory over the enemy that threatens us all.
Christiane Amanpour: “This is a year in which probably democracy as we understand it will either continue and improve, or it will tip over into something which is no longer recognizable.” With so many crucial elections, historian Timothy D Snyder says 2024 is going to be a true test for democracy.”
Jack Watling: The War in Ukraine Is Not a Stalemate
Since the failure of offensives in 2023 by both Ukraine and Russia, a narrative is coalescing that the war in Ukraine has reached a stalemate. The perception of an indefinite but static conflict is causing a sense of fatigue in the capitals of Ukraine’s partners: if neither side is likely to make substantial progress, the status quo appears stable, demanding little urgent policy attention.
This perception of stalemate, however, is deeply flawed. Both Moscow and Kyiv are in a race to rebuild offensive combat power. In a conflict of this scale, that process will take time. While the first half of 2024 may bring few changes in control of Ukrainian territory, the materiel, personnel training, and casualties that each side accrues in the next few months will determine the long-term trajectory of the conflict. The West in fact faces a crucial choice right now: support Ukraine so that its leaders can defend their territory and prepare for a 2025 offensive or cede an irrecoverable advantage to Russia.
Uncertainty about the long-term provision of aid to Ukraine risks not only giving Russia advantages on the battlefield but also emboldening Moscow further. It has already undermined the goal to push Russia to the negotiating table because the Kremlin now believes it can outlast the West’s will. Unless clear commitments are made in early 2024, the Kremlin’s resolve will only harden.
What the United States and Europe do over the next six months will determine one of two futures. In one, Ukraine can build up its forces to renew offensive operations and degrade Russian military strength to the degree that Kyiv can enter negotiations with the leverage to impose a lasting peace. In the other, a shortage of supplies and trained personnel will mire Ukraine in an attritional struggle that will leave it exhausted and facing eventual subjugation.
Ukraine’s international partners must remember that the first outcome is desirable not only to Ukrainians. It is necessary to protect the international norm that states do not change their borders by force. A mobilized and emboldened Russia would pose a sustained threat to NATO, requiring the United States to indefinitely underwrite deterrence in Europe. That would constrain the United States’ capacity to project force in the Indo-Pacific and substantially increase the danger of conflict over Taiwan. The West can choose which direction history takes. But first it must acknowledge the gravity of the decision it currently faces.
Donald Trump’s businesses received at least $7.8 million from foreign governments during his presidency, a new report by House Democrats found. The transactions offer concrete evidence that former President Trump engaged in the kind of conduct that the G.O.P. is seeking to pin on President Biden.
“Drawing from actual receipts and records and using the most conservative possible accounting methodologies, White House for Sale: How Princes, Prime Ministers, and Premiers Paid Off President Trump documents how, as President, Donald Trump accepted more than $7.8 million in payments from foreign states and their leaders, including some of the world’s most unsavory regimes. By elevating his personal financial interests and the policy priorities of corrupt foreign powers over the American public interest, former President Trump violated both the clear commands of the Constitution and the careful precedent set and observed by every previous Commander-in-Chief.”
From the main conclusions:
President Trump’s businesses received, at a minimum, $7.8 million in foreign payments from at least 20 countries during his presidency. These included payments from foreign governments and foreign government-owned or -controlled entities to properties owned by Donald Trump, including Trump International Hotel in Washington, D.C.; Trump International Hotel in Las Vegas; Trump Tower on Fifth Avenue in New York; and Trump World Tower at 845 United Nations Plaza in New York.
“The foreign nations making payments to President Trump spanned the globe and included several of the most corrupt and authoritarian governments on Earth. They ranged from the People’s Republic of China to Saudi Arabia to the Democratic Republic of the Congo to Malaysia to Albania to Kosovo. These countries spent—often lavishly— on apartments and hotel stays at Donald Trump’s properties—personally enriching President Trump while he made foreign policy decisions connected to their policy agendas with far-reaching ramifications for the United States.”
Information available to the Committee shows that among countries patronizing Trump properties, China made the largest total payment to President Trump’s private business interests. According to the subset of documents obtained from Mazars and an additional document from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), these payments collectively included millions of dollars from China’s Embassy in the United States; the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC), a Chinese state-owned enterprise; and Hainan Airlines Holding Company, a subsidiary of Chinese company HNA Group, owned by the Hainan provincial government.
Read the Report here:
By pocketing foreign states’ payments, President Trump repeatedly placed his personal financial interest and the interests of foreign wealth and power above the public interest, resulting in precisely the split loyalty between foreign power and the American people that the Framers sought to avoid by writing the Foreign Emoluments Clause into the Constitution. Examples include the following: o In 2017, President Trump did not impose sanctions on ICBC—his well-paying tenant in Trump Tower in New York—even though the DOJ in 2016 filed a complaint alleging that the bank had been among Chinese financial institutions that had provided accounts to a company that had allegedly conspired with a North Korean bank to evade U.S. sanctions.
He did not sanction ICBC even after former Republican Chairman Ed Royce of the House Foreign Affairs Committee called on President Trump to “apply maximum financial and diplomatic pressure” by “targeting more Chinese banks that do business with North Korea.”11 President Trump expressed his own personal sympathies and constitutional indifference on the matter in the 2016 campaign when he stated: “I love China! The biggest bank in the world is from China. You know where their United States headquarters is located? In this building, in Trump Tower.”
The documents provided to the Committee reveal that Saudi Arabia and its royal family spent at least $615,422 at Trump properties during the Trump Administration, and the total amount of the country’s expenditures is likely much higher than that. In May 2017, while Saudi Arabia was spending lavishly at properties he owned, President Trump signed an arms deal with the Saudi government worth more than $100 billion, despite reports that the country repeatedly used weapons to cause mass civilian casualties during its ongoing military intervention in Yemen.13 President Trump also cast doubt on U.S. intelligence assessments concluding that Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman had ordered the murder and dismemberment of Washington Post contributing journalist and Saudi regime critic Jamal Khashoggi.14 At a campaign rally in 2015, then-candidate Trump articulated what would matter most to him in any conflict between his personal financial incentives related to the Saudis and American values and policy goals: “Saudi Arabia, I get along great with all of them. They buy apartments from me. They spend $40 million, $50 million.” He continued, “Am I supposed to dislike them? I like them very much!”1