Jan 16: E-Stories
Day690 Kherson Kharkiv NewYork CombatSit RUplanes BehindLines InRussia Allies CH IranHamas A&P Mamedov Zabrisky UKDef ISW NoelReport Rosenberg Syrskyi ATESH Davis EUComm Iceland Ukrinform EuroMaidan
Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
Stories we’re following…
The Russian army dropped two bombs on the village of New-York (Donetsk Oblast) and targeted a residential building with a missile; 3 people were injured, five more remain under the rubble, Vadym Filashkin, Head of Donetsk Oblast Military Administration, reports on Facebook.
Governor: Russian missile downed over Kryvyi Rih. Air alarms rang out in Kherson, Mykolaiv, Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts shortly before 5 p.m. local time. Ukraine's Air Force warned residents of Kryvyi Rih to take shelter at 5:13 p.m.
Police: Russia destroys granary in Kharkiv Oblast. Two air-dropped gliding bombs were launched over the previous night, hitting grain storage facilities and a processing building. According to Bolvinov, the security guards on duty were not injured and no casualties were reported.
Russian strike against Donetsk Oblast kills 1 civilian, injures 1. Russian forces launched a massive barrage from multiple-launch rocket systems against Krasnohorivka, Governor Vadym Filashkin said.
CDS Report: Naftogaz reported that gas reserves in Ukrainian storage facilities are ample to successfully conclude the heating season. The company emphasized that this marks the second winter during a full-scale invasion and is the first time in Ukraine's entire history of independence that the country is weathering the season with domestically produced gas. (Maybe they can sell some to Russia.)
Combat Situation Update
Zaluzhnyi confirms Ukraine downed Russian A-50 plane and IL-22 command aircraft. The Ukrainian Air Force destroyed a Russian A-50 military aircraft and Il-22 airborne control center, Commander-in-Chief Valerii Zaluzhnyi said on Jan. 15. Video: Valerii Zaluzhnyi/Telegram.
Video of the A-50 going down.
Oleksandr Syrskyi, Commander of the Ground Forces of Ukraine, has said that the Ukrainian army's goals remain to hold its positions and to exhaust the Russians, Syrskyi said in an interview with Reuters.
Syrskyi said that the Russians are advancing on different fronts along the eastern front in order to establish full control over the industrial region of Donbas, despite significant losses in manpower and material and technical units of equipment. Russia also hopes to regain the positions it lost in the south of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.
Ukrainian troops, for their part, are conducting small counterattacks, which Syrskyi called "active defence": they are keeping the Russians on their toes, looking for opportunities to strike while they are trying to seize the initiative.
Syrskyi also noted that combat operations on both sides are being conducted on a smaller scale to conserve ammunition and manpower, suggesting that Russia has also learned to react and prevent losses.
Russia is mobilising about 1,000-1,100 recruits to its armed forces every day, Vadym Skibitsky, deputy head of Ukraine’s military intelligence agency (HUR), said in an interview with RBC-Ukraine published on Monday. The Kyiv Independent reports:
The main factor motivating men to join the military is the pay, according to Skibitsky. He said that while the salary level may vary, those fighting in Ukraine make about 220,000-250,000 rubles ($1,700-1,900) a month.
“Russian prisoners of war frankly admit that they joined the army because they are paid, citing mortgages, families and so on. And this motive is currently the main one for those people who voluntarily go for mobilisation, sign contracts and fight,” Skibitsky said.
Skibitsky said that those driven to join the army for financial reasons are primarily from Russia’s regions where salaries are low and there are higher levels of unemployment.
Russia may be forming air assault brigades for landings in Ukrainian rear - ISW. The Russian army may be forming air assault brigades that will act as specialized units that can conduct landings and reconnaissance behind Ukrainian lines.
The UK’s Ministry of Defence (MoD) said that Russia had probably “substantially inflated” the number of people whom it says have joined the country’s armed forces, with new recruits being disproportionately drawn from some of Russia’s most impoverished and rural communities.
Defense Minister proposes international working group to withdraw Russian troops from Ukraine. Umerov presented the plan at the fourth meeting of national security advisors regarding the Peace Formula in Davos, Switzerland. He suggested creating a group at the level of Ministers of Defense and National Security Advisors to “jointly work out a mechanism for the withdrawal of (Russian) troops.”
Explosions were heard in the Rostov Region at one of the largest chemical enterprises in the south of the Russian Federation. A fire started at the state-owned Kamensky Combine in the city of Kamensk-Shakhtinsky. Local residents reported explosions before the fire started. Workers were evacuated.
Estonia has military strategy plan for West to help Ukraine win war - media.
The plan for Ukraine's victory in the war, prepared by the Ministry of Defense of Estonia, is intended for all member countries of the Ramstein working group. The plan states that, in particular, the GDP of all member countries of the working group is EUR 47 trillion, of which only 0.2 percent was directed to help Ukraine. At the same time, Russia's GDP is estimated to be worth EUR 2 trillion.
"The volume of the West's economy is ten times larger than that of the Russian economy. Here the difference is huge. The problem is that Russia has already moved to the path of a military economy, that is, half of their economy is already working directly for this, and this is not the case in the West, they have not yet woken up, so to speak," said Grigore-Kalev Stoicescu, the head of the Riigikogu's national defense committee.
Behind the Lines
Guerrillas enter territory of military unit in Feodosia. Ukrainian partisans have entered the territory of a military unit of the Russian Armed Forces in Feodosia (temporarily occupied Crimea). This was reported by the ATESH guerrilla movement on Telegram, Ukrinform reported.
"Our agents successfully conducted reconnaissance operations on the territory of the 18th Guards Anti-Aircraft Missile Regiment of Sevastopol and Feodosia. While the guard was busy with important things on their phones, we were able to reconnoiter and record everything quickly," the statement said. It is noted that the mobilized soldiers of this military unit suggested when and where it was better to take photos and videos.
CDS Report: Ukrainian law enforcement officers have officially charged 477 Russian servicemen with war crimes. 77 of them have already been sentenced, Prosecutor General Andriy Kostin said.
In occupied Melitopol, Ukrainian partisans blew up a car with 4 Russians inside.
Companies with a Russian background operating in Finland have exported high technology and products needed by the war machine to Russia. The companies' customers have connections to the Russian intelligence service and the defense industry. Yle found out.
According to journalists, we are talking about small logistics and forwarding companies owned by immigrants from Russia. The names of the companies are not being disclosed “because they do not have significant economic power and their owners have not been convicted of crimes,” writes the Russian service Yle.
Thus, a company located near Lappeenranta sent sensors, diesel engines, fuel pumps and transmission equipment to Russia. Similar goods, journalists point out, were found in destroyed Russian weapons and vehicles in Ukraine.
According to the authors of the investigation, at least two Russian companies - clients of this company are connected with the FSB - letters of gratitude from the Russian intelligence service were published on the website of one of them.
The EU’s eastern states are demanding that the bloc impose import duties on Ukrainian grains, citing unfair competition, Hungary’s agricultural ministry has said. Reuters reports:
The ministry said the farm ministers from Bulgaria, Poland, Hungary, Romania and Slovakia had sent a letter to the European Commission requesting the measures, saying cheaper agricultural products from Ukraine were eating into their export markets.
The five signatories are among six EU member states that produce significantly more wheat and maize than they need, which is key for European food safety and the EU’s strategic sovereignty, the ministers said.
Me: This is why I’ve always said that Hungary doesn’t act alone. If Hungary can oppose EU measures in favour of Ukraine, it is because it has the backing of other states.
The Ministry of Defense of Belarus reports that the Belarusian military was sent to Russia for so-called military exercises - to "take over the experience" of the occupiers in the war against Ukraine. I’ll follow up on this development to verify if there have been other Belarusian soldiers sent to Russia before this time.
Meanwhile in Russia
Russia’s foreign and defence ministers Sergei Lavrov and Sergei Shoigu held telephone calls with their Iranian counterparts yesterday, Russian state news agency RIA reports.
Russia and Iran have drawn close in recent months, and Iran has provided Russia with weaponry to be used in Ukraine. The two sides have also criticised Israeli actions in the Gaza Strip.
Military intelligence: North Korea supplying 122 mm, 152 mm shells to Russia. North Korea has supplied Russia with around one million rounds of ammunition, mainly made up of 122 mm and 152 mm artillery shells, Vadym Skibitskyi, a representative of Ukraine's Military Intelligence (HUR), said in an interview with RBC Ukraine on Jan. 15.
Russia said it had given more than 200 Ukrainian prisoners of war lengthy prison sentences, with some getting a life sentence, AFP reported. The state-run outlet RT quoted an Investigative Committee source as saying that 242 soldiers were sentenced in occupied Ukraine.
The Kremlin said Russia was developing relations with “our partner” North Korea in all areas and would build on the agreements reached between the countries’ leaders when they met at a Russian space launch centre last year.
The bankruptcy petition for St. Petersburg Exchange, submitted to the court in November, spoke of “overdue debt” to Sberbank and VTB in the amount of 435 million rubles, reports RBC, which has reviewed the document. In addition, according to the publication, the statement stated that due to the sanctions, the exchange would not be able to fulfill its obligations.
SPB Exchange is the largest platform in Russia for trading foreign securities. At the beginning of November 2023, the US Treasury imposed sanctions on the exchange. After this, trading in foreign securities on the St. Petersburg Exchange was suspended, and the platform announced a change in the general director.
On November 27, Russian state news agencies RIA Novosti and TASS reported that St. Petersburg Exchange had filed for bankruptcy. The exchange denied this, but its shares managed to fall in price by more than a third.
Putin is still waiting for a ‘breakthrough’. The Russian leadership is unconcerned with the living conditions of ordinary Russians. Many are freezing in diverse regions as temperatures drop significantly and the infrastructure needed to heat Russian homes has mostly broken down due to their inability to fix it. Please note that Russians had problems with heating every year, but never this bad.
Since none of this ‘suffering’ will have any sort of impact on the Kremlin’s thinking, I would suggest we should take General Pershing’s advice from way back in time, and make sure Ukraine gets whatever it needs to soundly defeat Russia. There mustn’t be any equivocation or room for Russia to raise its head. There can be no half measures as this would only feul Russian revanchism in the future even more, as it did Germany after the First World War.
The Finnish government is preparing to completely ban real estate transactions for Russian citizens this spring, said the country's Defense Minister Antti Häkkänen. Tightening of regulations for owners of real estate with Russian roots began last summer. Then the Finnish authorities tightened restrictions on entry for Russian real estate owners, and in September banned entry into the country on cars registered in Russia.
The Government Commission on Legislative Activities supported a bill providing for the confiscation of property of those convicted of “fakes” about the army. This was reported by RBC and RTVI with reference to sources.
The bill was introduced by United Russia members Irina Yarovaya, Vasily Piskarev and Elena Yampolskaya. The document proposes to expand Article 104.1 of the Criminal Code of the Russian Federation on confiscation of property.
Swiss diplomat: China needs to help end war in Ukraine. China needs to be involved in efforts to end Russia's war in Ukraine, Swiss Federal Councillor Ignazio Cassis told a news conference in Davos on Jan. 14, Reuters reported. (Good luck with that.)
This is the Kremlin’s new disinformation campaign that seeks to blame the Biden administration for the sorry state of Russian infrastructure. It is the West that is to blame for everything: victims till the end.
Allied Support
Pritzker: Confiscation of Russian assets needs collective action. The decision to confiscate frozen Russian assets must be taken on a collective level and is unlikely to happen quickly, U.S. Special Representative for Economic Recovery in Ukraine Penny Pritzker said during the World Economic Forum on Jan. 15, Ukrinform reported.
The UN and its partners appealed for $4.2bn (£3.3bn) from donors to support communities in Ukraine devastated by the war, as well as Ukrainian refugees, in 2024. The UN aid chief, Martin Griffiths, urged diplomats in Geneva: “Please do not forget Ukraine while there are many other places in the world that grab our attention.”
Reuters: US Treasury deputy secretary to coordinate new Russia sanctions authority in Europe and Japan. U.S. Treasury Deputy Secretary Wally Adeyemo will hold meetings in Europe and Japan this month to coordinate a new Russia sanctions authority that focuses on financial institutions, Reuters reported on Jan. 15, citing a Treasury spokesperson.
President Zelensky was in Switzerland yesterday. He was welcomed by Federal Councillor for Foreign Affairs of Switzerland, Ignazio Cassis. Zelensky met with the President of the Swiss Confederation, Viola Amherd.
Switzerland will provide 1.5 billion Francs (€1.6 billion) in aid to Ukraine from 2025 to 2028, President of the Swiss Confederation Viola Amgerd reports. Switzerland sees a special focus on the reconstruction of Ukraine. Switzerland will also host the Global Peace Summit.
Zelensky to meet von der Leyen in Davos. Zelensky arrived in Davos, Switzerland, earlier on Jan. 15 to attend the World Economic Forum (WEF). Following his visit to the forum, he is expected to meet top Swiss government officials in Bern.
"I think that what we should think and talk about, is a Ukrainian-Polish alliance within the EU. Because we will be two very strong players. We will make Poland stronger, and Poland will make us stronger," Minister of Foreign Affairs Dmytro Kuleba said.
Canada shares draft plan for security assurances for Ukraine. Natalka Cmoc, Canada’s ambassador to Ukraine, said the document contained Canada's plan for "security assurances," not "guarantees."
Ukraine's efforts to gain security guarantees from its Western allies have picked up speed since the beginning of the full-scale invasion. The Group of Seven (G7) members presented their long-term security commitments for Ukraine at the NATO summit in Vilnius last July, which entailed explicit and long-lasting obligations, as well as bolstering Ukraine's ability to resist Russian aggression.
Canada has already pledged long-term assistance to Ukraine, she said, adding that the document finalizes such a commitment on paper.
The US deputy treasury secretary, Wally Adeyemo, will travel to Europe and Japan this month, where he will coordinate with allies on the use of a new Russia sanctions authority that takes aim at financial institutions, a treasury spokesperson told Reuters. Adeyemo will travel to Rome, Berlin, Frankfurt and Tokyo from 16-23 January. He is scheduled to meet G7 partners as well as key private sector representatives, including financial institutions and academics, to discuss the executive order, the spokesperson said.
AP: Hamas uses arms made in Russia, Iran, China, North Korea. Despite speculations about links between Moscow and the Palestinian militant group, the AP said it is unclear whether this weaponry comes directly from governments or the black market.
