Jan 28: E-Stories
Day706 RUattacks CombatSit Dnipro BehindLines InRussia Allies Zelensky LatviaRuSpies A&P Sipher Avdeeva ISW UKDef Ivakhiv Lautman Naryshkin Stoltenberg Kenyon Kurylo Trump MiddleEast Razom
Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
Stories we’re following…
Explosions reported in Poltava Oblast, Air Force reports ballistic missile threat. Explosions were heard in the cities of Kremenchuk and Poltava in Poltava Oblast on the evening of Jan. 28, Suspilne Poltava reported, citing local civilians and correspondents.
Russian attacks in Kherson Oblast injure 2, including 89-year-old woman. The Jan. 28 attacks came after Russian forces killed one person and injured two more over the previous day.
Air defense downs Russian Kh-59 missile in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. The Suspilne news outlet reported earlier at 3:00 p.m. local time that explosions were heard in the area.
The rumour mill: There are ongoing rumors of the dismissal of Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces Valerii Zaluzhny as well as the resignation of Minister of Defense Rustem Umerov. The rumour started about 2 weeks ago, and I don’t know the original source of the rumour itself.
"Dear journalists, we immediately answer everyone: No, this is not true," the Ukrainian MoD reports. Likely referring to the rumor about Umerov.
This is how the outskirts of Avdiivka look like nowadays. There are so many small villages now destroyed and turned into rubble in east Ukraine. It will take generations to rebuild this area once the Russians have been defeated.
The situation at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant is getting worse every day.
"There have already been eight power plant blackouts. the russians are hiding the actual state of affairs at the station, and IAEA experts see the degradation of the equipment at the station. The question is that the security of the continent depends on how quickly they will leave the station", - emphasized the Minister of Energy of Ukraine Herman Galushchenko.
The occupiers continue to exert intense pressure on the station staff, there were kidnappings and torture of employees, as well as physical violence against individual employees in front of colleagues. The minister added that Ukraine knows the names of all Rosatom employees who arrive and work at the #ZNPP on a rotating basis.
Zelensky’s evening address: Prime Minister Shmyhal and I held a strategic meeting today to discuss the first half of the year and our work with EU neighbours.
Combat Situation Update
The Ukrainian Armed Forces have repelled 21 hostile attacks on the Avdiivka front and 18 on the Marinka front on Sunday, the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported on Facebook, information as of 18:00 on 28 January.
A total of 61 combat clashes took place during the day. The Russians also launched six missile strikes and two airstrikes, and fired 51 times from multiple launch rocket systems at the positions of Ukrainian troops and populated areas.
Russian forces continued to try to push Ukrainian forces out from their foothold on Dnipro’s left (eastern) bank, making seven unsuccessful attempts to do so over the course of 28 January alone.
Over the course of the day, Ukrainian aircraft carried out airstrikes on six clusters of Russian military personnel, weapons and equipment. Ukrainian air defence forces also destroyed one Kh-59 guided missile.
The UAF have advanced on the left bank of the Kherson region, Operational Command South spokeswoman Nataliya Humenyuk reports. "Our work has results with the expansion of the bridgeheads, but we must realize that the front remains flexible. There are many more enemies on the left bank," she adds.
Sky News: Ukrainian Navy Commander signals Kyiv would win faster if there's permission to fire Western weapons deep inside Russia. Ukrainian Navy Commander Oleksii Neizhpapa told Sky News that the state of the war would have been very different if allies had not given restrictions to Kyiv on the use of Western weapons.
Ukraine World: On February 23, 2022, conductor Bohdan Ivakhiv and the orchestra were working late to record music for the regional theater. A few hours later, the city was attacked and his life changed. He now serves in the 3rd Separate Assault Brigade. Ukrainian soldiers come from all walks of life.
The West will need 2 years to make enough ammunition for Ukraine to get them on the same level as the Russians. Western countries are forced to increase supplies to Ukraine at the same time as building up their own defense arsenals, FT writes.
Behind the Lines
Astra: A drone attacked an oil refinery in Yaroslavl in Russia this morning, Russian media reports. The site that was attacked is cordoned off and a demining team was called.
Strange flashes are noticed in Chelyabinsk, Russia. That’s 427 km east of Ufa.
Reviewing Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil industry since Januray 2024: Jan 18 Drone attack on an oil terminal (St. Petersburg). 19.01 The oil depot in Klintsy is on fire. 21.01. The oil and coal terminal of the UstLuga seaport near St. Petersburg is on fire. 25.01. The Tuapse oil terminal near Novorossiysk is on fire. 26.01. Explosion in Vyborg.
Meanwhile in Russia
FT: Russia's proposed gas pipeline to China hindered by construction delays. Mongolian Prime Minister Luvsannamsrain Oyun-Erdene said that China and Russia have not yet agreed on some of the crucial details of the planned 3,550-kilometer pipeline.
The Council of the European Union decided to extend economic sanctions against the Russian Federation for six months.
These sanctions, first introduced in 2014 in response to Russia's actions destabilising the situation in Ukraine, were significantly expanded since February 2022 in response to Russia’s unprovoked, unjustified and illegal military aggression against Ukraine.
They currently consist of a broad spectrum of sectoral measures, including restrictions on trade, finance, technology and dual-use goods, industry, transport and luxury goods. They also cover: a ban on the import or transfer of seaborne crude oil and certain petroleum products from Russia to the EU, a de-SWIFTing of several Russian banks and the suspension of the broadcasting activities and licenses of several Kremlin-backed disinformation outlets. Additionally, specific measures were introduced to strengthen the ability of the EU to counter sanctions circumvention.
The head of the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service Naryshkin, answering the question of what fate awaits Ukraine: 'It seems to me that the fate of Ukraine, as it exists now, and its regime, will be very sad. Russia does not stop halfway.' “Happy Negotiation”!
Julia Davis: Historians on Russian TV are bashing Lenin and blaming him for Russia's problems with its former colonies, since Putin is striving to restore the Russian Empire — not the USSR. Angry pundits demonstrated their imperial mindset in full bloom.
Hungarian far-right leader calls for seizure of Ukraine's Zakarpattia Oblast if Russia wins war. The Our Homeland party, which currently holds six seats out of a total of 199 in Hungary's parliament, has been criticized for its nativist views and rhetoric. Party leader Laszlo Toroczkai has made a number of controversial statements, including some deemed to be antisemitic, anti-Roma, and anti-immigrant.
EU plans to target Hungary's economy if it blocks aid to Ukraine. Brussels may damage Hungary's currency and investor confidence, aiming to pressure Orban. If Hungary persists, EU leaders could threaten to cut all funding to provoke market reactions.
Allied Support
Stoltenberg called to support Ukraine and at a certain stage to invite it to full membership in NATO.
"It is very important that Putin does not achieve what he wants in Ukraine, because it will be an incentive for other authoritarian regimes," he said.
Stoltenberg: China is watching allies' resolve on Ukraine. NATO General Secretary Jens Stoltenberg visited Washington to persuade the U.S. Congress to pass a new $61 billion aid package for Ukraine. Republican lawmakers have opposed the bill.In an interview with Fox News, Stoltenberg said that supporting Ukraine and eventually adding it to the alliance would be a “good deal” for the U.S. and NATO, as Beijing is watching and taking note of the allies’ resolve.
Zelensky has spoken about the risk of the Ukraine conflict escalating into a third world war, as he pressed his case for foreign aid in an interview with the German state broadcaster ARD on Sunday. Zelensky said that if Russia attacked a Nato country, it would be “the beginning of the third world war”.
In the US, Zelensky said Ukraine had support from across the political divide. “There are individual Republicans who do not support Ukraine, but the vast majority of Democrats and Republicans support Ukraine,” he said. On whether a second term of Donald Trump would affect support for his country, he said US policy did not depend on a single person. (subtitles on)
FDP leader Christian Lindner is calling on European partners to provide more support for Ukraine. "Germany is making its contribution and, if necessary, will mobilize even more," said Lindner at the European Liberal Party Conference in Berlin.
The ruling coalition in Latvia agreed to stop importing Russian and Belarusian grain. Minister of Agriculture Krause noted that in the future, enhanced control of grain transit will be introduced, assessing the quality, safety and origin of products
"Rheinmetall is building a new factory in Germany in record time for the production of ammunition to create strategic security of supply to both the Bundeswehr and Ukraine," Rheinmetall CEO Armin Papperger said.
Head of the Presidential office Andriy Yermak and Minister of Foreign Affairs Kuleba met with Hungarian Minister of Foreign Affairs Péter Szijjártó and his team in Uzhhorod. "We are working to establish relations, we need a frank and constructive dialogue. We are ready," they add.
The German drone manufacturer Quantum-Systems has started supplying Ukraine with 100 Trinity drones in various configurations. The transfer of the drones will take place within the framework of the contract signed in September 2023.
Representatives of the EU member states met on Monday evening to discuss funding for Ukraine as pressure mounted on Orbán to cave in and agree to a €50bn four-year package on the table. Aides to Orbán said on Monday they were now open to the idea of the €50bn being taken out of the overall EU budget, something they blocked in December, if certain “caveats” were added.
Finland presidential election to go to runoff, former PM ahead. Finland's presidential election is set to go to a runoff next month, as no candidate gained a majority of the votes on Jan. 28, in a race that has heavily focused Nordic nation’s new role as a neighboring NATO country with Russia.
A bipartisan group of lawmakers in the US Congress is close to reaching a deal with President Joe Biden's administration that would introduce sweeping new border controls, including the power to pause asylum claims during a surge in migrant numbers.
Who’s running the show for the GOP? Trump’s statements in this clip are not new. With the exception of Russia’s illegal war in Ukraine, Trump has been calling for the U.S. to stop NATO collaboration and calling out NATO members that don’t pay since 1987, when he expressed the same sentiments to Larry King.
In 1987, he was known as a shady businessman, publishing his own books, and losing millions on his properties. These same statements in today’s volatile context have much more impact.
That someone like this would get to the most powerful position on Earth is scary, quite frankly, and worse still, that the GOP would even reconsider his nomination after everything that has happened in the past few years.
This is the hopak. I wish I could do this: actually I wish I could touch my toes. Let’s start with that.
DefenceOne: Three US service members killed by Iran-backed forces in Jordan. Three U.S. service members were killed and up to 25 injured last night when Iran-backed forces in Iraq fired one-way attack drones at targets in Syria and Iraq, US Central Command said in a statement Sunday.
