Jan : E-Stories
Day706 Kherson CombatSit BehindLines InRussia Allies UAGovt A&P Avdeeva Mongelli Gontar Zelensky Shcherbinka UKDef ISW Kenyon Panyi Lautman Weiss Kokcharov Christie Mamedov Khara DossierCentre DW
Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
Margot Gontar: Sharing fun fact with you guys: when posting about “20 days in Mariupol” - you heard air raid siren in the beginning ? And that when you post to Instagram it repeats again and again? got triggered, every time. might seem I’m okay but I’m not. It’s hard to share these stories.
Stories we’re following…
Official: Russian attack in Sumy Oblast kills 3, injures 1. Russian troops struck the Znob-Novhorodske community in Sumy Oblast on Jan. 29, killing three people and injuring one more, the community’s head Petro Honcharov told Suspilne news outlet.
On the morning of January 30, the Russian military dropped an explosive device from a drone near the humanitarian headquarters building in Beryslav, Kherson Oblast. A 50-year-old man was injured.
In Kharkiv Oblast, mandatory evacuation is ongoing from 27 villages in the Kupyansk district, with more than 300 residents having left over the past two weeks.
Today: We’ll be waiting for the Court’s judgement…
Zelensky's evening speech:
Our cities, our communities, which are being hit by Russia. Kharkiv Oblast, Donetsk Oblast, Kherson Oblast, Zaporizhia Oblast. Nikopol, Manganets. The situation in many border communities is very difficult. But every time we do not forget: rescuers of the State Emergency Service of Ukraine, policemen, our doctors, volunteers work in every community, in every city. There are those who save lives everywhere. And I thank each and every one who works just like that - for the sake of life.
Russia attacked with 35 shahed drones overnight of which 15 were shot down. Most of them were aimed at front line infrastructure and military facilities.
The Ukrainian Armed Forces hit the radar station of a Russian air defense system in occupied Crimea. StratCom confirms. Head of the Ukrainian Military Intelligence Directorate Kyrylo Budanov hopes to destroy the Crimean bridge this year. "We should end its existence," he added.
An explosion at an electric substation in Shcherbinka near Moscow on Jan 30.
Combat Situation Update
Ukrainian forces made slight advances on the western outskirts of Horlivka.
ISW: Russia may be retooling aspects of its air defense umbrella in deep rear areas amid continued Ukrainian drone strikes within Russia.
Russia reportedly deployed more Rosgvardia troops to occupied Ukraine ahead of the March 2024 Russian presidential election.
Russian forces recently advanced near Kreminna and Avdiivka and in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area.
CDS on Avdiivka: After failing to encircle Avdiivka, Russian forces are preparing to break through the city. This indicates that the enemy command is gradually returning to a strategy reminiscent of the Bakhmut operation.
Twenty-one Ukrainian drones reached Crimea and several Russian regions, Russian media have said this morning. Sevastopol in illegally Russian-held Crimea was targeted, along with the Bryansk, Kaluga and Tula regions, according to Russian officials, who as usual claimed all drones were intercepted and/or destroyed.
Via Michael Weiss
The General staff confirms it has shot down a Russian Su-34 in the Luhansk region. Spokesman of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Andriy Kovalev said.
Ukraine is expected to receive the first batch of GLSDB bombs from the United States tomorrow. Politico reports based on sources. Washington promised Kyiv to supply GLSDB in late 2023.
More than 100 Kuwaiti M-84AB tanks might go to Ukraine via Croatia where they would be sent first for overhaul and modernization. The M-84AB is a Yugoslavian tank based on the Soviet T-72A. In addition, Croatian M-84A4 tanks might also end up in Ukraine.
Behind the Lines
Human rights activists have documented 432 cases of torture committed by Russian forces in the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine between February 24, 2022, and August 31, 2023. Among them, 128 cases occurred in Kherson Oblast, 119 in Kyiv Oblast, 76 in Kharkiv Oblast, 34 in Zaporizhzhya Oblast, 28 in Chernihiv Oblast, 15 in Sumy Oblast, 12 in Mykolaiv Oblast, 10 in Donetsk Oblast, 6 in Luhansk Oblast, and 4 in the Autonomous Republic of Crimea, as reported by Anastasiya Malynka, a manager at the human rights association Freerights.
During the Russian occupation, the population of temporarily occupied Melitopol in Zaporizhzhya Oblast increased compared to the pre-full-scale invasion period. Before February 24, 2022, the city had 150,000 residents, but more than half of them had left. Approximately 100,000 Russian citizens were brought in to replace them, as reported by the legally elected Mayor of Melitopol, Ivan Fedorov.
Zelensky: Surpassing Russia in drone operations 'one of the main tasks’ in 2024. President Zelensky said in his nightly address on Jan. 29 that one of the main tasks in the ongoing year is to keep ahead of Russia in the quality of drone operations, the production of which Ukraine aims to increase significantly.
A Ukrainian military spy official said on Tuesday that Russia was showing no willingness to return the bodies of dozens of Ukrainian prisoners of war Moscow says died in a military plane crash in Belgorod region last week. “It’s a statement from Russia that our prisoners were there, and so far we can analyse only their words. Now there is no readiness to transfer the bodies from the other side,” Andriy Yusov, the spokesperson, was quoted as saying by Suspilne broadcaster.
Watch for it: Top UN court to rule on Russia's objections to Ukraine genocide case. Russia submitted objections to Ukraine's suit during hearings in September, arguing that the Hague-based court does not have the jurisdicion to hear the case. The ICJ will rule on those objections on Feb. 2.
Fun fact: As a result of the war against Ukraine, there has been a decrease in supplies of Russian gas to Europe by 115 billion cubic meters, of which China took only 13 billion (11 %), as reported by the Central Bank and Bruegel.
Meanwhile in Russia
Russia's largest silver deposits, located in Siberia and the Far East, now controlled by the Omani government.
The ICT group of billionaire Alexander Nesis sold 23.9% of Polymetal International, Russia’s second gold producer and largest silver producer, to a consortium of Omani investors.
As reported by Reuters , the buyer of the largest stake in the company, which owns enterprises in the Magadan and Sverdlovsk regions, as well as in the Khabarovsk Territory, Yakutia and Chukotka, was the investment fund Mercury Investments International, which belongs to the government of Oman.
Noel Report: Ukrainian intelligence specialists put down a special communications server of the Russian Ministry of Defense on Jan 30. As a result, the exchange of information between units of the Russian Ministry of Defense that used the specified server located in Moscow was stopped.
Maria Avdeeva: Widespread internet disruption in Russia. Russia built its isolated internet (.ru) for years. Now, a massive outage shows shutting it down is all too easy.
Having begun to introduce restrictions, the authorities do not find the strength to abandon them. The requirement for mandatory repatriation and sale of foreign currency earnings by the largest exporters, introduced until the end of April, will most likely not only be extended, but will become indefinite. Bloomberg reports this with reference to officials and top managers of exporting companies. Putin issued a decree on the mandatory sale of most of the export proceeds by 43 groups of companies in mid-October - otherwise it would not have been possible to stop the dollar from rising above 100 rubles.
The Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov held a meeting with the Chinese deputy foreign minister Ma Zhaoxu on Tuesday to discuss the conflict in Ukraine, the situation in the Asia-Pacific region, the Middle East and the Korean peninsula, his ministry said in a statement, without immediately releasing further details.
The Presidents of Russia and Belarus Vladimir Putin and Alexander Lukashenko signed a decree on the creation of the Union State media holding. According to RIA Novosti, the decision was made at a meeting of the Supreme State Council of Russia and Belarus, held in St. Petersburg. He proposed not to “spread the money allocated for state propaganda across existing newspapers, magazines, telegram channels” and other media, but to “gather it into a fist” within the framework of a single media holding.
Media: Putin plans to visit Turkey in February to discuss Ukraine. Russian President Vladimir Putin's international visits have been curtailed since the International Criminal Court (ICC) issued an arrest warrant in March 2023 for his role in the deportations of Ukrainian children. Turkey is not party to the ICC's Rome Statute, meaning it is under no obligation to detain Putin.
Ruling Georgian Dream party chair Kobakhidze to take over as Georgian PM. The news, which is expected to be formally announced later this week, came a month after Georgian Dream party founder and former Prime Minister Bidzina Ivanishvili said he was returning to politics as the party's "honorary chair."
Borrell says Central Asia must strengthen cooperation on Russian sanctions circumvention. "In order for these sanctions to be effective, we need full cooperation from our partners," said the EU's top diplomat, Josep Borrell. (Me: Good luck!)
Allied Support
The US secretary of state, Antony Blinken, warned on Monday that Ukraine’s gains over two years of fighting were in doubt without new US funding, as Nato’s chief visited to lobby Congress.
Zelensky: Europe cannot support Ukraine alone without US. President Volodymyr Zelensky's fears have been echoed by other Ukrainian leaders, such as Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba, who said earlier in January that there is no "plan B" if U.S. aid ends.
NATO chief: Support for Ukraine 'not charity.' Stoltenberg is visiting Washington, D.C. to persuade U.S. legislators to approve a $61 billion aid package for Ukraine that has been stalled by congressional Republicans since October 2023.
Josep Borrell, EU foreign policy chief, has said Europe’s safety is at stake if Vladimir Putin wins the war in Ukraine. In a piece written in the French publication L’Obs, Borell said: “We hear again that Ukraine cannot win and that western support will not hold. And once again, the temptations of conciliation resurface. These ideas were wrong in 2022, and they remain wrong today. We must not let them shape our policy towards Ukraine.”
Ukraine and Belgium intend to begin joint production of unspecified types of weapons. A corresponding memorandum was signed. This was announced by the Deputy Minister of Defense of Ukraine Ivan Havryliuk on behalf of the Ministry of Defense.
Netherlands allocates $132 million in new military aid funding package for Ukraine. The Netherlands has allocated €122 million ($132 million) to support Ukraine's ammunition supply, equipment, and cybersecurity, Dutch Defense Minister Kajsa Ollongren announced on Jan. 29.
FT: EU agrees to set aside billions in profits from frozen Russian assets. The European Union has agreed to set aside billions of euros of profits from frozen Russian Central Bank assets, paving the way to allow the profits to be transferred to Ukraine, the Financial Times reported on Jan. 29, citing a draft text.
Sweden-NATO news: The Parliament of Hungary has been called by the opposition to hold an extraordinary session, suggested on the 5th of February, to consider Sweden's accession to NATO. Speaker of National Assembly Kövér earlier said they have no rush to consider the ratification.
Mamedov: Estonia plans to return to Ukraine a collection of Scythian gold and Greek coins stolen from museums in occupied Crimea and Kherson. Some of these coins are more than 2000 years old, and some date back to 500 BC. Estonian border guards confiscated them from a Latvian who came from Russia. This is an important historical and cultural initiative as preservation of Cultural Heritage becomes a priority, especially in connection with the losses due to the actions of the Russian army.
European Union nations have decided to approve an outline deal that would keep in reserve the profits from hundreds of billions of dollars in Russian central bank assets that have been frozen in retaliation for Moscow’s war in Ukraine, an EU official told the Associated Press.
The tentative agreement, reached late Monday, still needs formal approval but is seen as a first step toward using some of the €200bn (£171bn/$216bn) in Russian central bank assets in the EU to help Ukraine rebuild from Russian destruction.
The official, who asked not to be identified since the agreement was not yet legally ratified, said the bloc “would allow to start collecting the extraordinary revenues generated from the frozen assets ... to support the reconstruction of Ukraine.”
Masha Gessen has published an article in The New Yorker which deals with the issue of Ukraine’s work to root out corruption in its institutions. This is the intro blurb:
“With elections postponed and no end to the war with Russia in sight, Volodymyr Zelensky and his political allies are becoming like the officials they once promised to root out: entrenched.”
There’s a few things to be said about this in order to understand why Ukrainians and Ukraine watchers are raising their voices in dissent.
The first is the intimation that the government in Kyiv is on the road to dictatorship due to a “never-ending” war. This is ridiculous, and it’s a narrative that has been circulating in the press in West (whose audiences know very little about Ukraine) aiming to demoralise efforts of support for Ukraine. This plays right into the hands of the fringe elements of representatives of pro-Kremlin parties in our own democracies that have been focusing on the “corrupt Ukrainians” theme. A glance at the Ukrainian press and it is clear that Ukrainians are enacting reforms necessary for their accession to the EU and NATO, and conducting investigations into those pockets of illegal activity that still exist, as any democratic state should do to protect these institutions.
I follow the news in a few Ukrainian publications that cover domestic political debates, and talk with people who are either working closely with the government or with NGOs. They are ALL using their energy and material, emotional and intellectual resources on the liberation of Ukrainian territory, which is currently occupied by the Russians, and in the daily running of services that are essential for all Ukrainians. Their focus is on the war and surviving and victory.
Secondly, I agree with Alexander’s comment about having a Russian-American write about the government in Kyiv when there are more than enough qualified Ukrainian journalists and NGOs around to be able to give a clear picture of the inner machinations of government, and what they are actually doing. Gessen is a Russia watcher: they have written extensively about the totalitarian leadership in Moscow. Why didn’t The New Yorker enlist a Ukrainian journalist to comment on their views about the current government, and what they want from it?
What is most important is that the article comes at a time when there are claims that General Zaluzhnyi may be “fired” from the command of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. These rumours are not true. They attribute the results of the Ukrainian counteroffensive to him. Wars can never be attributed to one person or the results from one campaign. I could point out that the West did not provide the armaments necessary to bring that offensive to victory.
It seems there are forces that would like to paint a portrait of Ukraine in chaos, which it isn’t, at a very delicate moment. It’s fighting a war and trying to get its children back from Russians who have kidnapped them, and they’re trying to save their cultural sites, and their citizens from continuous Russian missiles. What we are seeing is a demoralisation campaign.
Putin has reportedly built a luxury residence on an estate twice the size of Monaco, on the shore of Lake Ladoga just 31 km (19 miles) from the Finnish border. The Dossier Centre has published some remarkable drone images of the complex.
Embattled Chinese development company, Evergrande, has been ordered to liquidate by a Hong Kong court after an 18-month long hearing.
Evergrande, which holds the ignominious title of the world’s most indebted property developer with about $300bn in liabilities, failed to convince the court that it had a viable restructuring plan, after having been given seven extensions since court proceedings were first brought in June 2022. However it can still appeal.