Jul 1: E-Stories
RUattacksUA CombatSit BehindLines InRussia Allies A&P ISW CDS Noel UKDef Zelensky OSCE KyivIndie Tokariuk Kokcharov Heikkenen Panyi Jay Moutet Dolce Biden SCOTUS FinancialTimes CNN Lucas
Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
President Zelensky announced the return of ten Ukrainians from Russian captivity, including notable figures like Nariman Dzhelal, Deputy Chairman of the Mejlis of the Crimean Tatar people, and two Ukrainian Greek Catholic Church priests. The released individuals had been held captive since 2017-2018 in various locations, including occupied Crimea and Belarus.
Ombudsman: More than 14,000 Ukrainian civilians in Russian captivity. More than 14,000 Ukrainian civilians are being held in Russian captivity, Ukraine's Chief Ombudsman Dmytro Lubinets said on June 29.
To all my fellow peeps…Happy Canada Day!!!
Stories we’re following…
Zelensky: Russia used over 800 guided aerial bombs against Ukraine this week. Russia has used more than 800 guided aerial bombs against Ukraine this week alone, President Volodymyr Zelensky said on June 30.
Russian missile attack on Zaporizhzhia Oblast kills 7, including 3 children. Russian troops attacked the town of Vilniansk in Zaporizhzhia Oblast on June 29, killing seven people, including three children, and injuring 36, local officials have said.
Noel Report: Consequences of a Russian attack on the Nova Poshta terminal in Kharkiv. The number of victims increased to nine people. There is also a lot of damage.
OSCE: `It is deeply shameful that Russia, a country which has been waging a war of genocide and territorial conquest against Ukraine since 2014, including a large-scale war since 2022, is allowed to hold this post.
1 killed, 9 injured in Russian strike on Kharkiv postal depot. Russia targeted a postal depot in Kharkiv with a guided aerial bomb on June 30, killing one person and injuring nine others, among them an 8-month-old child, Kharkiv Oblast Governor Oleh Syniehubov reported at 6 p.m. local time.
OSCE Parliamentary Assembly adopts resolution recognizing Russian genocide of Ukrainian people. In a post on Telegram, Ukrainian delegate Pavlo Frolov said the document also "defines the decolonization of the Russian Federation as a necessary prerequisite for establishing a lasting peace."
DTEK: 90% of company's energy generating capacity lost due to Russian strikes. Russia has struck DTEK thermal power plants over 180 times, causing losses worth at least $350 million.
30,000 square kilometers of Ukraine's land cleared of mine threats, operations expanding further. Ukrainian Colonel Ruslan Berehulia, head of the Ministry of Defense's Environmental Safety and Mine Action Department, reported that Defense Ministry specialists have cleared 30,000 square kilometers of Ukraine over the past two years - an area comparable to the size of Belgium or Moldova.
Ukraine Says It Foiled Another Russian Plot to Topple the Government
Ukraine’s security service said on Monday that it had foiled yet another Russian plot to stir public unrest and then use the ensuing turmoil to topple the government, outlining a familiar tactic that Kyiv claims has been employed in string of coup attempts in recent years.
The Ukrainian domestic intelligence agency, the S.B.U., said that it had discovered a “group” of conspirators it accused of planning to spark a riot, seize the Parliament building and replace the nation’s military and civilian leadership. Four people have been arrested and charged, according to the authorities. [continue]
Olga Tokariuk: It's been a year since Russians killed Victoria Amelina. A Ukrainian writer, poet, my friend and role model. The book she was writing, a collection of testimonies about Russian war crimes in Ukraine, will be published early next year. Please read it, remember Vika, demand justice.
Combat Situation Update
ISW: Russian President Vladimir Putin's theory of victory that Russia will be able to make creeping advances in Ukraine indefinitely will incentivize Putin to protract the war and harden Putin's commitment to destroying Ukrainian statehood.
The West must hasten to provide Ukraine the support it needs to conduct counteroffensive operations to invalidate Putin's theory of victory and avoid protracting the war more than necessary to secure a peace acceptable to Ukraine and its partners.
Document reveals why Russia keeps accidentally bombing itself, WP reports. A document obtained by the Washington Post (WP) suggests Russia dropped glide bombs on its own territory nearly 40 times in one year, most likely due to malfunctioning guidance systems, the outlet reported on July 1.
The Novolipetsk Metallurgical Plant in Lipetsk:
Ukraine hits Russian space communications center in occupied Crimea, military says. A series of explosions was reported in several settlements in Crimea overnight on June 23, including the town of Yevpatoria and the village of Vityne. Neither Ukrainian nor Russian officials commented on the attack. The 40th Separate Command and Measurement Complex is reportedly located there.
Explosions rock occupied Crimea, smoke over Balaklava reported. Explosions were heard in Balaklava, a settlement in the city of Sevastopol, in occupied Crimea after an air raid alert went off on July 1, the Telegram channel Crimean Wind reported. Russian proxy Mikhail Razvozhayev claimed that four air targets were destroyed, "but the wreckage fell in the coastal zone."
Alex Kokcharov: Ukraine claims heavy Russian personnel casualties in June 2024, second highest after May 2024. If these estimates are remotely accurate in relation to each other, May-June 2024 were the deadliest for the Russian forces since the start of the war in February 2022.
Behind the Lines
Ukrainian border guards attacked near Romanian border. Border guards in western Ukraine were forced to defend themselves against an attack by two armed men, killing one of the assailants and injuring the other, State Border Guard Service spokesperson Andrii Demchenko told Ukrainska Pravda on June 30.
Bloomberg: Turkey, Bulgaria and Romania have started demining operations in the Black Sea. They seek to increase the safety of shipping, in particular, for Ukrainian grain exports.
The Washington Post obtained internal documents from the Bilhorod region authorities, revealing that Russian glide bombs into Ukraine frequently landed on Russian territory. Between April 2023 and April 2024, at least 38 bombs fell in the Bilhorod region, with most failing to explode.
'Tension rises' at border with Belarus, Minsk accuses Kyiv of deploying troops. The Ukrainian Security and Defense Council's Center for Countering Disinformation said in May that Russia may opt to conduct a new psychological operation aimed at "stirring up mass panic" in Ukraine. The plan was to force Kyiv to believe that Belarusian troops would join Russia's war against Ukraine, according to the center.
Ukrainian partisans claim they located air defense system protecting Putin's dacha in Sochi. Ukrainian partisans claimed on June 27 that they had located an air defense system covering the skies above Russian President Vladimir Putin's luxury dacha in Sochi.
SBU releases new headcam footage of Snake Island liberation. The Security Service of Ukraine has released new footage of the liberation of Snake Island on June 30 to mark two years since Russian troops were forced to retreat from the strategic Black Sea outpost.
Foreign Ministry hails Google Translate's addition of Crimean Tatar language. "Thank you to Google for this crucial initiative, which demonstrates that the rich linguistic & cultural heritage of Ukraine's indigenous people is valuable to the global community," Ukraine's Foreign Ministry said on X.
U.S. Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken and Romania’s Minister of Foreign Affairs Luminița Odobescu signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) to strengthen cooperation between the United States and Romania on countering foreign state information manipulation.
Foreign state information manipulation, which includes disinformation and propaganda, is a transnational security threat that can create or exploit divisions within and among countries, imperil election integrity, and undermine public trust in government. In shared recognition of the threat faced, the United States and Romania intend to expand our bilateral cooperation and align government policies along the five key action areas established in the U.S. Department of State’s Framework to Counter Foreign State Information Manipulation. This expanded cooperation enables greater information sharing about foreign disinformation operations, capacity building to strengthen social resilience, and multilateral coordination on this issue.
The car of the commander of a military base blew up in Rostov Oblast.
Moldova: The Central Bank of Moldova is studying measures to prevent Russian banks from allocating funds to the country to buy the consent of the population as was done in Gagauzia.
The BNM added that use of Russian MIR card payment system is illegal in Moldova. It told BIRN that “financial intermediation platforms that are developing extremely quickly at the international level can, however, facilitate cross-border transfers, including some made by certain internationally sanctioned persons or entities from the Russian Federation to… Moldova”.
Kuleba meets Armenian minister as Yerevan drifts away from Moscow. Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba and his Armenian counterpart Ararat Mirzoyan discussed the security situation in Europe and the South Caucasus. The two also focused on ways to deepen bilateral ties and international cooperation between nations, "particularly in light of Ukraine’s future EU membership."
Vienna has become 'Russia's new espionage hub,' intelligence officials tell WSJ. "We are now becoming a liability for our neighbors because Russia is using us as an operational base," an Austrian intelligence official told the Wall Street Journal.
Inside a stately art nouveau building in central Vienna, special-forces officers armed with submachine guns guard the home of Christo Grozev, an investigative journalist whose Academy Award-winning documentary exposed the Kremlin’s attempt to kill opposition leader Alexei Navalny.
Two years ago, Austrian intelligence and U.S. law enforcement warned Grozev that Russian President Vladimir Putin’s spies were plotting to kill him. After living with his family for two decades in Austria, the Bulgaria-born Grozev fled to the U.S. in 2023. Now, when he returns to visit his family, who remained behind in Vienna, he receives a degree of state protection that rivals that of Austria’s chancellor, officials say.
The failed murder plot is one of a series of incidents that show how Vienna has emerged as Russia’s new espionage hub in Europe after capitals there expelled 600 spies posing as diplomats in the wake of the invasion of Ukraine.
Times Radio: Tom Ball says Russian intelligence services have resorted to hiring operatives via social media. An extension of its history of working with organised crime.
British eurosceptic Nigel Farage was trolled with a poster of Putin during one of his election rallies, referencing his controversial claims that the West instigated Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Farage, leader of Reform UK, recently suggested that Ukraine should consider peace talks with Russia. British citizens are called to vote on July 4.
Ruslan Trad: Important news from Bulgaria. Russia got its man at the head of the Bulgarian church, one of the oldest in the Orthodox world, although the new patriarch will have a hard time. He will have to call a Church Council, which has not been called for years; there will also be resistance because he received half the votes for his election. But the most important aspect - and the one that is most important for Moscow - is the effect on the ground, among the laity and ordinary people. Through the church and domestic culture, the Kremlin has influenced the Bulgarians for many years, even though historically Russia has often been an enemy of Bulgaria.
Decode39: Italy’s Finance Corps intercepted over 6 tons of ecstasy precursors at Malpensa Airport, preventing the production of 63 million pills. The shipment from China was destined for the Netherlands. This operation highlights Italy’s commitment to combating drug trafficking, with international cooperation playing a crucial role.
U.S. Sanctions China-based members of a money laundering organization with criminal links to the Sinaloa Cartel as part of ongoing efforts to disrupt the flow of illicit narcotics into the U.S. Also sanctioned a Mexico-based money launderer.
Meanwhile in Russia
Kremlin claims 'provocations' from US drones over Black Sea, prepares potential response. The Russian Defense Ministry said U.S. drones were being used to conduct reconnaissance and find targets for "high-precision weapons supplied to the Armed Forces of Ukraine by Western states.
US, Russia set for UN Security Council clash over North Korea arms embargo. A meeting of the U.N. Security Council on June 28 will see the U.S. confront Russia over violating a North Korea arms embargo, Deputy U.S. Ambassador to UN Robert Wood told Reuters.
Jacopo Iacoboni: Russia has decreed an 11-year record increase in gas tariffs to bolster Gazprom's balance sheet: from July 1st prices + 11.2%, From July 2025 they will increase by another 8.2% Therefore, in 2 years gas prices in Russia will have risen by 34% since the beginning of the war.
Russia's largest private airline is decommissioning its planes due to sanctions
S7 Airlines, Russia's largest private air carrier, plans to decommission its fleet of Airbus A320neo aircraft, Rosaviatsia head Dmitry Yadrov said Monday.
According to him, the airliners in question are those with engines made by the US company Pratt and Whitney, which have become impossible to repair and maintain due to sanctions against Russia.
S7's problems with Airbus aircraft first became known in October last year, when the company was forced to cut its fall-winter schedule by 15% because 20% of its fleet was not flying.
Belarus says it is reinforcing security at Ukrainian border after claims of 'security incidents.' The Belarusian border service claimed earlier in the day that border police had intercepted a drone that had crossed into the country from Ukraine in order to obtain information about Belarusian border infrastructure. (Me: a justification to place more artillery and other equipment along the Ukrainian border.)
Russia to send children to North Korean summer camp. According to Gurov, the trip to the North Korean camp is scheduled for late July. Russia will send groups of children who will be accompanied by counselors, he added.
Forbes: China tightening the noose around Russia’s energy neck
Beijing is taking a very aggressive stance on what is to be known as the “Power of Siberia 2” pipeline, which was planned to transport a maximum annual capacity of 50,000,000 m³ of natural gas from Russia to China.
China now is demanding that it pay only Russia's heavily subsidized domestic price for the natural gas, and China will not commit to buying a substantial quantity of such gas every year.
Meanwhile, Russia's state-owned oil company, Gazprom, is hemorrhaging cash. Last year, it reported a loss of $6.9 billion, its first annual loss in 20 years. Perhaps in a sign of the difficulties regarding the negotiations, Gazprom's CEO, Alexei Miller, who had been a fixture in previous Sino-Russian talks, did not accompany Russian President Vladimir Putin on a trip to Beijing in May.
The fact that China is taking such an aggressive stance in the negotiations with Russia highlights the changing power dynamics between the two countries following Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Numerous western European countries have reduced or terminated their gas and oil dependency on Russia, the Nordstream II Pipeline has been destroyed, and much of the economic relationship between Russia and the west has dissolved altogether. Without that western economic outlet, China assumed greater significance to Russia’s economic interests. [continue]
This is a leaked footage of a Chinese bot farm that is going viral. Bot farms are where multiple devices connected to the internet with different social media profiles engage in a targeted post to boost its engagement. So the next time you’re arguing with someone on a social media platform, this is who you’re arguing with.
Steve Rosenberg for the BBC, Moscow: Crazy scenes outside a Moscow hotel where a crowd was waiting for a glimpse of controversial US rapper Kanye West. Russian state media reported his arrival in the Russian capital. (Me: Kanye ran for president in 2020.)
Allied Support
IMF approves $2.2 billion in funding for Ukraine through Extended Fund Facility. "Ukraine’s performance remains strong under the EFF despite challenging conditions," a news release from the IMF read. "All quantitative performance criteria for end-March were met, and all structural benchmarks through end-June were implemented on time or with a short delay."
The Dutch government will soon deliver 24 F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine. This decision marks the final significant act of the outgoing cabinet. Defense Minister Kajsa Ollongren announced the approval of the export license for these jets.
EU imposes new sanctions against Belarus, implementing anti-circumvention measures. The EU Council also prohibited the direct or indirect imports, purchasing, or transferring of gold and diamonds from Belarus, as well as helium, coal, and mineral products, including crude oil.
Polish foreign minister proposes seizing $321 billion in frozen Russian assets. "We need to re-learn how to champion the escalation game," Sikorsky said during a lecture at the Ditchley Foundation in the U.K. "(Russian dictator Vladimir) Putin has already written them (the frozen assets) off, he does not expect to get them back. But he also doesn’t think we have the fortitude to take hold of them either. So far, we have proven him right."
Financial Times: In the first round of the French parliamentary elections, the far-right Rassemblement National has been the top choice for France’s most ‘disadvantaged’ voters, garnering 33.2% of the vote.
The leftwing Nouveau Front Populaire alliance has come in second with 28.1 per cent, while President Emmanuel Macron’s Ensemble alliance has secured 21 per cent of the vote.
Speaking from Hénin-Beaumont, her constituency in northern France where she easily won re-election, Le Pen on Sunday hailed a result that she said had “practically erased” Macron’s centrist bloc.
Hungary takes over the EU presidency today: it single handedly blocked about 40% of EU's aid packages to Ukraine so far.
In Georgia: The state has intensified its repressive measures since reintroducing the Russian foreign agents bill. The ruling party and government have fueled hatred against opponents, either directly or indirectly orchestrating/endorsing many incidents.
SCOTUS Decision: Trump vs the United States
CNN: Supreme Court rules Trump has limited immunity in January 6 case, jeopardizing trial before election
The Supreme Court ruled Monday that Donald Trump may claim immunity from criminal prosecution for some of the actions he took in the waning days of his presidency in a decision that will likely further delay a trial on the federal election subversion charges pending against him.
In the most closely watched case before the Supreme Court this year, the ruling rejects a decision from a federal appeals court in February that found Trump enjoyed no immunity for alleged crimes he committed during his presidency to reverse the 2020 election results.
“We conclude that under our constitutional structure of separated powers, the nature of presidential power requires that a former president have some immunity from criminal prosecution for official acts during his tenure in office,” Chief Justice John Roberts wrote in Monday’s opinion. “At least with respect to the president’s exercise of his core constitutional powers, this immunity must be absolute.”
“The President enjoys no immunity for his unofficial acts, and not everything the President does is official. The President is not above the law,” Roberts also wrote.
The justices said there was a crucial distinction between official and private conduct and returned the case to the lower courts for additional analysis.
Justice Sotomayor says president 'is now a king above the law' in dissent
Three justices, Sonia Sotomayor, Elena Kagan and Ketanji Brown Jackson, all dissented from the majority opinion.
Writing in her dissent, Sotomayor said:
The relationship between the President and the people he serves has shifted irrevocably. In every use of official power, the President is now a king above the law.
She warned of the “stark” long-term consequences of today’s decision, noting that the court had effectively created a “law free zone” around the president.
This new official-acts immunity now ‘lies about like a loaded weapon’ for any President that wishes to place his own interests, his own political survival, or his own financial gain, above the interests of the Nation.
Sotomayor continued:
The President of the United States is the most powerful person in the country, and possibly the world. When he uses his official powers in any way, under the majority’s reasoning, he now will be insulated from criminal prosecution. Orders the Navy’s Seal Team 6 to assassinate a political rival? Immune. Organizes a military coup to hold onto power? Immune. Takes a bribe in exchange for a pardon? Immune. Immune, immune, immune.
Official Statement from the Biden-Harris Campaign
Steve Bannon, an ally to Donald Trump, held a rally before surrendering to serve a four-month sentence for defying Congress. Bannon reported to federal lockup in Danbury, Conn. — a low-security facility about 60 miles north of Manhattan — surrounded by supporters waving flags and ringing cowbells. His inmate number: 05635-509.
Times Radio—Scott Lucas, “If Donald Trump wins the next election, America is "going to be in a serious crisis which I'm not sure it can get back from" says professor of American studies Scott Lucas.