Jul 1: Saturday Stories
Day 492: Zapo Berdyansk cyber Pope rouble Baikova MoDKids Wagner EU HUN BUL EUNeutral NATO flies RUelite A&P UAWorld Mongelli Vogel Davis TheEconomist
Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
A special evening in Rome on Thursday.
Stories we’re following…
Russia is scaling back its presence at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plower plant, Ukraine’s military intelligence directorate (GUR) warned on Friday, with staff told to relocate to Crimea and military patrols scaled back. According to the GUR, several representatives of Russia’s state nuclear energy agency, Rosatom, have already left. Ukrainian employees who stayed at the plant and signed contracts with Rosatom have been told to evacuate by Monday, preferably to Crimea, it said.
“There have been 11 explosions in Berdiansk. The airport area is on fire and detonating. Ambulances are heading in that direction,” reports Berdiansk City Military Administration; Vladimir Rogov, Kremlin-appointed proxy head of Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Defense forces struck the headquarters and warehouse of fuel and lubricant materials of the Russian troops in the suburbs of temporarily occupied Berdyansk.
Overnight, the Russian army reportedly attacked military infrastructure facilities in the Zaporizhzhia region. Ukraine’s air force claimed four S-300 missiles and 13 “Shahed” drones were fired, and that air defence forces shot down 10 drones.
On 30 June, Russian troops hit the village of Serhiivka, Pokrovske district, Donetsk Oblast; two people were killed, six more were wounded, and the school was destroyed, Donetsk Oblast Prosecutor's Office reports. According to the investigation, on 30 June at about 11:20, the occupying forces of the Russian Federation targeted the village of Serhiivka, Pokrovske district, most likely from a multiple-launch missile system; the territory of a local school was hit. There were 12 people in it at the time of the shelling: representatives of the administration, teachers and technical staff.
WaPo: A satellite communications system serving the Russian military was knocked offline by a cyberattack late Wednesday and remained mostly down on Thursday, in an incident reminiscent of an attack on a similar system used by Ukraine at the start of the war between the countries. At least two groups claimed responsibility for the attack, one describing itself as a hacktivist organization and the other as part of the Wagner Group, the mercenaries who mutinied last week and marched most of the way to Moscow. The hackers claimed to have sent malicious software to the satellite terminals, setting off a scramble among security experts to obtain a terminal for testing. A connection to Wagner could be faked to promote more division in Russia. A real one would be more interesting, showing that the mutinous actions may continue in cyberspace even if they have stopped on Earth.
Hanna Maliar, spokeswoman for the AFU: Under the pretext of allegedly carrying out counter-intelligence measures, citizens are arrested by Russian forces in the temporarily occupied territories, (mainly entrepreneurs and other wealthy local residents), and accused of possible cooperation with the Defense Forces of Ukraine. For the release of detainees, the Russian forces demand significant sums of money from their relatives or loved ones. As of the beginning of this week, in the settlement of Nizhny Sirogozy in the temporarily occupied territory of the Kherson region, the occupiers detained about a hundred such persons in order to obtain a ransom.
The Russian rouble tumbled past 89 against the dollar for the first time in more than 15 months on Friday, Reuters reports. Bank of Russia deputy governor Alexei Zabotkin said reduced export revenues and the balance of payments were determining the rouble’s weakening, which he said carried no risks to financial stability.
Pope Francis reportedly said on Friday there was no apparent end in sight to the war in Ukraine. This comes as a follow up to Cardinal Zuppi’s visit to the Kremlin and Maria Lvova Belova, who is wanted for arrest by the ICC for war crimes. Criticism of the Cardinal’s visit comes from various quarters, but it is now clear that Pope Francis and Vatican leadership have no influence over Russian leadership.
The tragic reality of this war that seems to have no end demands of everyone a common creative effort to imagine and forge paths of peace,” the pope told a religious delegation from the Patriarch of Constantinople.
The vice-president of Loko-Bank, Kristina Baikova, died after falling out of the window of her Moscow apartment, reports Baza. As the channel notes, she was there with a friend. Last year, Lukoil vice president Ravil Maganov died as a result of a fall from a Moscow hospital window. Seems like there’s a redistribution of wealth going on.
The Ministry of Defense, together with the Ministry of Education, has developed a 5-day course for high school students, in which they will be prepared to participate in hostilities as soldiers of motorized rifle troops. Mikhail Borodin, expert of the Main Military-Political Directorate of the Ministry of Defense, announced this. According to him, the emphasis will be on practical exercises, including the active use of military tactical and military sports games. At the same time, the curriculum was drawn up taking into account the war in Ukraine, he stressed.
Reuters has more on what was discussed during the telephone call with Putin and Indian prime minister Narendra Modi. The Indian government said Putin, who will also join Modi on Tuesday for a virtual summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, informed the prime minister about the recent developments in Russia during their conversation.
Ukrainian prosecutors charged a Russian politician and two suspected Ukrainian collaborators with war crimes over the alleged deportation of dozens of orphans from the formerly occupied southern city of Kherson.
“We want to live near the sea”: Russians are buying real estate in occupied Mariupol, where invading forces destroyed nearly everything last year. The Russian social media site VKontakte has about 100 groups containing advertisements for buying, selling, and renting real estate in occupied Mariupol. In one of the largest, “Real Estate in Mariupol and Pryazovia,” messages from people seeking to buy houses or apartments began appearing in early May 2022, when heavy combat was still going on in the city. [continue]
Russian communications watchdog Roskomnadzor has blocked media outlets linked to Prigozhin, Russian newspaper Kommersant reported on Friday. Director Evgeny Zubarev says the infamous troll farm had existed since 2009 and confirms the many investigations into it were correct: "It was important to discredit opposition journalists. They were trying to destroy the country!"
BBC: Wagner continues to recruit in Russia. The Wagner Group continues to recruit new members in Russian cities despite the recent uprising, the BBC reported on June 29.
Wagner fighters will no longer fight in Ukraine after the mercenary group’s chief, Yevgeny Prigozhin, refused to sign any contracts with the Kremlin, according to the head of the Duma defence committee, Andrei Kartapolov. Kartapolov said that a few days before the attempted rebellion, Russia’s Ministry of Defence announced that “all [groups] that perform combat missions must sign a contract” with the ministry, Tass news agency reported.
Russian general Surovikin interrogated over Wagner rebellion, not in prison. Russian General Sergei Surovikin was interrogated by military prosecutors over his links to the Wagner Group's founder Yevgeny Prigozhin, Bloomberg reported on June 29, citing an unnamed source familiar with the matter.
Kazakhstan has announced it has uncovered online efforts to recruit its citizens to fight alongside Russian forces in Ukraine, AFP reports. The warning from regional officials in the Kremlin-friendly country late on Thursday follows reports in local media that Kazakhstan citizens have been killed in Ukraine. Both the Russian military and the Wagner mercenary group have targeted citizens of the ex-Soviet country in central Asia to join their ranks.
Monique: Bulgaria is infamous for its Russian capture on so many levels. I’m glad this is being talked about.
Reuters reports that EU countries with a neutral stance object to giving Ukraine outright security assurances, Austrian chancellor Karl Nehammer said on Thursday.
“For us as neutral states it is clear we can’t give security guarantees like that. Austria, Ireland, Malta and Cyprus have made it clear they have objections,” Nehammer said before a meeting with other EU government leaders in Brussels.
“The role of the neutral states needs to be explicitly taken into account. We will certainly discuss this and we will find formulations that will be acceptable for us as well.”
IMF to release $890 million tranche for Ukraine. The International Monetary Fund completed the first review of the extended arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility for Ukraine, allowing the release of $890 million, the IMF informed on June 29.
The UK will pass a law barring the country's lawyers from advising Russian companies on a range of business deals, the UK government has announced.
The new document is intended to further restrict wealthy individuals and big businesses associated with the regime of Russian President Vladimir Putin from accessing British legal expertise to conclude deals that could be used to finance the war with Ukraine.
“The UK legal system is at the heart of many international contracts and business, and we will no longer allow Russia to benefit from our knowledge and experience,” said Attorney General Alex Chalk.
An oligarch who made a fortune in Russia and is under Ukrainian sanctions has UK residency after being granted a special visa for the rich. Pavel Fuks, a Ukrainian national who had sanctions imposed in 2021, is also under criminal investigation for fraud and tax evasion in his home country. But the Guardian has established that Fuks, known as a regular at an exclusive Mayfair restaurant, was granted a so-called golden visa in 2012, followed by indefinite leave to remain in the UK in 2017. “It’s effective as of today,” his spokesperson said.
Hungarian PM Orbán has opposed the EU Commission’s plan to provide more financial aid for Ukraine during his speech on the Hungarian state radio on 30 June. Orban added that Hungary has still not gained access to the money in the fund, which is being financed from the joint loan by the European countries.
One thing is clear, we Hungarians ... will not give more money to Ukraine until they say where the previous around 70 billion euros worth of funds had gone," he stated.
Former US vice-president Mike Pence met with Ukrainian president Zelensky in a surprise trip to Ukraine, NBC news reports.
“I believe America’s the leader of the free world,” Pence told NBC News.
“But coming here just as a private citizen – being able to really see first-hand the heroism of the Ukrainian soldiers holding the line in those woods, see the heroism of the people here in Irpin that held back the Russian army, to see families whose homes were literally shelled in the midst of an unconscionable and unprovoked Russian invasion – just steels my resolve to do my part, to continue to call for strong American support for our Ukrainian friends and allies.”
The leaders of the EU member states at the European Council meeting on 29-30 June reached an agreement concerning the relations with China, in which they first and foremost called upon China to influence Russia in the context of the full-scale war in Ukraine. As a permanent member of the UN Security Council, China "bears special responsibility" for maintaining international order based on the rules, the UN Statute and the international law.
"Hence, the European Council calls on China to press Russia to stop its war of aggression, and immediately, completely and unconditionally withdraw its troops from Ukraine," the document reads.
Luke Harding, More insight into the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant
Since seizing the plant last year, the Russian army has turned it into a full-blown military base. It moved hardware into the turbine halls including armoured vehicles and ammunition. Soldiers used the territory to bombard Ukrainian towns across the Dnipro reservoir.
This has mostly dried up after the Kakhovka dam downstream was blown up earlier this month. Western governments and Kyiv say Russia deliberately sabotaged the dam in order to impede Ukraine’s counteroffensive.
Former plant workers said it would be difficult to damage the reactors, which were protected by thick steel and concrete. But they said the small cooling pond – which the Russians have allegedly mined – was more vulnerable, as was a dry storage area used for spent nuclear fuel.
An explosion in the cooling pond could lead to a partial nuclear meltdown similar to the 1979 Three Mile Island accident in the US state of Pennsylvania, said Oleksiy Kovynyev, a former senior engineer. In this scenario, most radiation would be contained.
But he added: “Of course, if you are an absolute maniac and open the ventilation channels this would throw out radiation.” Kovynyev said the dry storage area at the plant contained 24 spent “fuel assemblies”, sealed in 120 “hermetic” thick steel casks.
“In a normal situation they are absolutely safe. [But] if you wanted, you could destroy them. You could shell several times. This could cause a nuclear accident with radiation release.” He said he remained “optimistic” that no disaster would take place.
The GUR said on Friday that personnel remaining at the station had been instructed to “blame Ukraine in case of any emergencies”. Russia has claimed that Kyiv has endangered the station by shelling it.
Ukraine has urged the international community to pay attention to the alarming situation at the plant and to put pressure on Moscow to step back from the brink. Officials point out that Zelenskiy warned last year that the Kremlin was preparing to blow up the Kakhovka dam – something that happened seven months later.
Chief of GUR Budanov said, “Russia is fully prepared for a terrorist attack on the Zaporizhia NPP, which will lead to a man-made disaster. From the technical side, everything is prepared, - the head of the GUR of the MO Budanov.
"The part of the station that, in the event of a decision, will most likely be blown up, is an artificial reservoir on the station's territory, which provides cooling. So what they're going to do is break a link in the system that will eventually cause this technological disaster that no one can stop or mitigate. Because search and rescue operations in the combat zone are impossible."
The aim of the terrorist attack on the ZNPP, according to the Russian forces, will frighten the Western world, show that Russia will not stop before using nuclear weapons, and force the allies to try to bring us to the negotiating table.
The Washington Post speaks with General Zaluzhny, the Commander-in-Chief of Ukraine’s Armed Forces
Main takeaways from the interview:
▶️ Fighting without planes is like going against weapons with bows and arrows: "It's like if we went on the offensive now with bows and arrows, and everyone would say: 'Are you crazy?' But to this question (they answer) no, no."
▶️ "The number of (allied) aircraft patrolling our western borders is twice the number of Russian aircraft destroying our positions. Why can't we take at least a third from there and transfer it here?"
▶️ What Zaluzhny talks about with Mark Milley: "We have an agreement: 24/7, we are in touch. So sometimes I can call (Millie) and say if I don't get 100,000 shells in a week, 1,000 people will die. Take my place."
▶️ Several Leopard tanks have already been destroyed: “We got the Leopard not to be used in parades or to be photographed by politicians or celebrities. They came here for war. And "Leopard" on the battlefield is not "Leopard", but a target."
Recycling old conspiracy theories
The woman in the video said that the next threat will be bio-engineered flies that will carry disease, created by the Americans. Who else, of course. Some months ago, the Russian MoD also did a ‘serious’ presentation on this new bio-weapon. I’ll have fun tracking this conspiracy theory through all the channels. RFK Jr may even chime in since he is always ready to trash the US.
“Everyone in the elite understood that Putin had lost control.” How Russian officials comment on Prigozhin's rebellion—The Moscow Times
The main feeling on Saturday morning and afternoon among those who occupy high and middle positions in the Russian ruling class is a lack of understanding of what is happening and how this is possible. “Everyone is in a** and doomscrolling,” answered the question “how are you?” high-ranking interlocutor close to the government. “Even inside information is not brought to us. No one understands what is happening and what needs to be done, ”the federal official was perplexed.
Since Friday evening, some civil officials, state managers and members of their families began to book tickets from Moscow, recalls a close acquaintance of one of the Russian oligarchs. According to him, "everyone was feverishly looking for tickets, at least to St. Petersburg," since it is not easy to fly out of Russia due to sanctions and available flight tickets quickly ran out. Three days later, State Duma speaker Vyacheslav Volodin will de facto confirm that frightened officials were leaving the country.
Two federal officials say that Finance Minister Anton Siluanov, apparently fearing accusations of disloyalty to subordinates, on Saturday afternoon demanded that employees return from vacations and business trips and be ready to go to work on Monday.
The Important Stories publication reported , citing data from tracking services, that the business jets of the oligarchs Arkady Rotenberg and Vladimir Potanin, as well as Industry Minister Denis Manturov, left Russia on June 24. And the plane of the son of Putin's close friend Yuri Kovalchuk flew from Moscow to St. Petersburg. An acquaintance of Manturov confirms that the minister flew to Turkey, as he "had been planning this weekend for a long time."
While some were flying or leaving Moscow, others were arming themselves. Either out of a heightened sense of patriotism, or out of fear that the security forces would not be able to resist the rebels, the leadership of one of the state-owned companies issued weapons to some employees. [continue]