Jul 10: E-Stories
Day 501: Luhansk Kharkiv Donetsk Crimea Bakhmut ZNPP Caesar RULand Prokopenko UA-POL 55Bln EUComm OMV NATO Latvia China Twitter Soldin A&P UKDef ISW PrigozhinFT FTWeekend BBCVerify Warrell
Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
The National Resistance Centre: The occupiers are trying to informationally isolate the temporarily occupied territories and forbid the locals from communicating with the residents of free Ukraine. In particular, in the Luhansk region, in order to combat the leakage of information about the location of the enemy’s troops, the occupation administration threatens with consequences all those who talk to persons who are in the territory under the control of Ukraine.
Stories we’re following…
Update: 9 killed in Russian attack on Lyman, Donetsk Oblast. The death toll of a Russian attack on the city of Lyman in Donetsk Oblast has risen to nine, with 12 people injured, Governor Pavlo Kyrylenko reported on the morning of July 9.
On Sunday in Kharkiv region, the Russians carried out airstrikes on the outskirts of the border villages of Mylove, Kislivka of the Kupyan district and Veterinarne of the Kharkiv district, - the head of Kharkiv Regional Military Administration Oleh Syniehubov.
General Staff: Russian forces attempt advances in Donetsk, Luhansk oblasts. Russian forces attempted offensives in five directions in Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, the General Staff of Ukraine’s Armed Forces reported in its evening update on July 8.
General Staff: Ukrainian forces advance in two directions in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Ukrainian forces have continued their counteroffensive and advanced in the Melitopol and Berdyansk directions in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, the General Staff reported on July 9.
Defense Ministry: Russian forces prepare for possible hostilities in Crimea. Russia is fortifying its defenses in occupied Crimea to prepare for a potential Ukrainian advance, the Defense Ministry’s Military Media Center reported on July 8.
Oleksandr Syrskyi, Commander of the Ukrainian Ground Forces, has reported on Telegram that the Ukrainian military is advancing on the Bakhmut front and posted a video of the soldiers' work. He said the the Russian forces were trapped in some areas.
Mayor: Explosion reported near Russian-occupied Melitopol. A loud explosion has been heard in the village of Zarichne near the Russian-occupied city of Melitopol in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, exiled Melitopol Mayor Ivan Fedorov reported on July 9. The Ukrainian forces are also advancing on the Berdyansk front.
Russia sent the Russian Guard to the Zaporozhye NPP, according to the Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine. Thus, Moscow reacted to the publication of a map by Ukrainian intelligence, which shows schemes for mining the territory of a nuclear power plant by the Russian military, said Andrey Yusov, a spokesman for the department.
Traffic on the Crimean bridge was stopped in both directions, according to Russian state media, citing representatives of the "authorities" of the annexed territories. According to preliminary data, the stoppage of traffic is connected with an attempt to attack the crossing. The head of the annexed Crimea, Sergei Aksyonov, said that air defense forces shot down a cruise missile in the Kerch region. Traffic on the bridge resumed in the early afternoon.
The occupation administration of the temporarily occupied territories promises teenagers money for obtaining passports of the Russian Federation, the National Resistance Center reports.
The head of the Legion "Freedom of Russia" announced new raids on Russian territory after the rebellion of Prigozhin. Maximilian Andronnikov, known under the call sign Caesar, stated this in an interview with the British magazine The Observer. “There will be another surprise next month or so. This will be our third operation,” he said.
Deputies of the State Duma from the Liberal Democratic Party, headed by faction leader Leonid Slutsky, are preparing a bill to provide free land plots to families who have been married for more than 10 years and have children, as reported by TASS. According to Leonid Slutsky, such an initiative is aimed at the transition from urbanization to the development of low-rise buildings outside large cities. (Monique: such a law, if passed, could also apply to the occupied territories in Ukraine.)
Military allege Russia prepares to export stolen grain from occupied Ukraine to China. Russia is implementing measures in occupied Ukrainian regions that will allow it to export stolen agricultural products, including grain, to China, Ukraine's National Resistance Center reported on July 8.
Peskov claims Ukraine, Turkey ‘violated’ prisoner exchange agreements on return of Azov commanders. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov claimed Ukraine and Turkey "violated” prisoner exchange agreements amid the return of Ukrainian commanding officers who defended the Azovstal steel plant from Turkey.
Commander of the Azov Regiment Denis Prokopenko said he intends to return to the front. “For this we returned to Ukraine. This is our main goal,” Prokopenko said in Lviv upon his return from Turkey on July 8.
“I am deeply convinced that the army is a team effort. And today we are with you, we will continue the fight. We will definitely say our word in battle. The main thing today is that the Ukrainian army has seized the strategic initiative on the front line. And every day we are moving forward, ”Interfax-Ukraine quotes him as saying.
Polish-Ukrainian reconciliation: President Zelensky and Polish President Andrzej Duda have today jointly honoured the victims of the WWII Volyn Massacre, which has long a source of tension between the two countries.
Poland recently handed over to Ukraine about 10 Soviet-designed Mi-24 helicopters, writes WSJ. This has not been publicly reported. The air fleet of Ukraine remains small compared to the Russian one, the material says. Also, Ukrainian aircraft have less advanced guidance and protection systems.
Minister: Russia's war inflicts $55 billion in environmental damage. Ukraine’s State Environmental Inspectorate reported that Russia's full-scale invasion has caused $55.9 billion (Hr 2 trillion) in environmental damage, Minister of Environmental Protection and Natural Resources Ruslan Strilets said on July 8.
The US president, Joe Biden, is on the way to Europe to attend a Nato summit in Lithuania, where the expansion of the alliance and the US approval of cluster munitions are likely to be key talking points. The president will meet King Charles for the first time since the coronation in a fleeting visit that will be used by Rishi Sunak and the US president as a “pre-meeting” ahead of joint efforts at this week’s Nato summit.
The Telegraph: Germany prepares to block Ukrainian NATO bid. Germany plans to postpone Ukraine's accession to the North Atlantic Alliance during the upcoming NATO summit in Vilnius on July 11-12 for fear that Ukrainian membership will lead to a war between the bloc and Russia, according to a NATO official who spoke with British news source The Telegraph.
Kuleba: Ukraine's path toward NATO to become shorter after summit. Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said on July 8 that Ukraine's path toward NATO is expected to become shorter after the Alliance's upcoming summit. According to him, "several important decisions for Ukraine and NATO have already been agreed on."
France's military support to Ukraine will be strengthened, and new supplies of military aid are being prepared, reports Catherine Colonna, the French Foreign Minister, in an interview with RFI, writes European Pravda.
The return of the commanders of the Azov battalion from Turkey and Ukraine is a violation of the terms of the existing agreements, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told RIA Novosti. According to him, both the Turkish side and Kyiv violated the conditions.
“Under the terms of the agreements, the leaders of Azov were supposed to stay in Turkey until the end of the conflict. Nobody informed Russia about the transfer of the leaders of the Azov terrorist group from Turkey to Ukraine," Peskov said.
Latvia’s long-serving foreign minister, known for his tough line on neighbouring Russia and strong support for Ukraine, was sworn in on Saturday as the Baltic nation’s president for a four-year term. Edgars Rinkevics, who had served as Latvia’s top diplomat since 2011, took the oath of office in the capital, Riga.
Austrian energy company OMV to continue importing Russian gas. The Austrian OMV energy company's CEO, Alfred Stern, told the Financial Times his company didn't plan to exit its long-term supply contract with Russia's Gazprom, signed in 2018 and going until 2040.
BBC News: Twitter Blue accounts fuel Ukraine War misinformation
Some of the most widely shared examples can be found on Twitter, posted by subscribers with a blue tick, who pay for their content to be promoted to other users.
Have a look at the article by BBC Verify for the latest disinformation that is being disseminated by accounts on Twitter, and are most likely making their way onto other platforms as well.
Topics covered: weapons for Ukraine not used in France, no evidence of ‘baby factories’ in Ukraine, Kramatorsk missile not Ukrainian.
Why is this important: As I’ve noted before, the Russian info warfare effort was going to be significant before the NATO Summit in Vilnius on July 11 and 12. We’ve been mapping Russia’s disinfo campaigns which always increase in terms of volume of posts and intensity when Ukraine is liberating territory, or is the centre of focus for its allies (i.e. G7 Japan). It’s aim is to discredit Ukraine in the eyes of Western domestic audiences, and sow chaos. The ultimate goal is always to erode the concept of shared truth so target audiences don’t know what to believe anymore.
Zelensky has not cancelled elections
Posts claiming Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has "cancelled" elections in Ukraine have recently gone viral on Twitter.
As evidence, users cited remarks made by Mr Zelensky in an interview with the BBC in late June.
Asked whether there will be elections in Ukraine next year, Mr Zelensky responded: "If we win [the war], there will be. It means there will be no martial law, no war. Elections must be held in peacetime, when there is no war, according to the law."
Commenting on the statement, former Fox News host Tucker Carlson, who's been critical of US aid for Ukraine, said in his recently launched Twitter show that Mr Zelensky's comments proved he'd ended democracy in Ukraine.
Twitter Blue accounts on a similar theme have been shared hundreds of thousands of times.
The Ukrainian constitution prohibits the dissolution of parliament and national elections during martial law, meaning the current president and parliament will remain in charge until the period of martial law comes to an end.
Oleksii Danilov, secretary of Ukraine's national security and defence council, recently confirmed that based on the Ukrainian constitution, "no elections can take place" while martial law is in effect in the country.
Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin’s tangled links to Vladimir Putin leave Kremlin in a bind—Financial Times
Guns, drugs, gold bars, unconvincing wigs and a framed photo of severed heads — Russian state media this week deluged audiences with images they said were taken during a raid on the St Petersburg home of Wagner warlord Yevgeny Prigozhin.
The relatively lenient approach to Prigozhin, whose relationship with Putin dates back to the lawless St Petersburg of the 1990s, reflects the Kremlin’s weakness after his attempted insurrection and its deep entanglement with Wagner’s business empire, said observers and members of Russia’s elite.
A person who has known the warlord since the 1990s suggested the leeway to tie up loose ends at his businesses was probably part of a peace deal hashed out as Wagner’s tanks rumbled towards Moscow in June.
“It’s not like he’s just running around. It’s more like his empire is being taken apart and they’re making preparations for his departure . . . When things calm down, I think he’ll have problems, but who thinks about the future more than a week ahead?” the person said.
Parts of Prigozhin’s business empire also appear to be continuing operations, with the Wagner Group, for example, still recruiting new fighters.
Prigozhin was even able to reclaim some Rbs10bn ($110mn) that authorities had seized from him in cash on the day of the insurrection, according to the St Petersburg outlet Fontanka. [continue]
Programming Note: FT Weekend podcast
This week, we return to one of our favourite episodes, to hear about the secret lives of women spies. Our colleague Helen Warrell got exclusive access to the women at the top ranks of Britain’s MI6 agency. For the first time, they reveal what it’s like to be a woman in espionage, and how pop culture – from James Bond to John le Carré novels – has made it harder for MI6 to recruit a diverse team of spies. Then, we’re joined by behavioural economist and friend of the podcast Tim Harford, who makes a compelling case for learning when it’s time to quit.