Jul 12: E-Stories
Day 503: Kyiv Kherson Tavriia Berkhivka Moscow CAR Belarus ShadowFleet Rzhytsky Tsokov NATODay1 Turkey Matviichuk Pushkin ZelenksyVilnius A&P UKDef Budanov DWSanctions SpyinLondon
Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
Stories we’re following…
War update: 17 combat engagements recorded in five areas in eastern Ukraine within last day. Heavy fighting continues in the Kupiansk, Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka and Marinka sectors, with 17 combat engagements recorded there within the last day.
Suspilne reported Russia attacked Ukraine with 28 “Shahed” drones from the south-eastern direction overnight, of which 26 were shot down. “Two kamikaze drones hit the administration building of a port facility in Odesa: two port terminals, including a grain one, caught fire. The fire was extinguished, there were no critical damages or injuries,” Suspilne reports. This attack comes on Day One of the NATO Summit in Vilnius.
Russian troops have attacked a humanitarian aid headquarters in the city of Kherson and used Grad multiple rocket launchers to shell Stanislav hromada [a hromada is an administrative unit designating a town, village or several villages and their adjacent territories – ed.]. A civilian woman has been killed in the village of Sofiivka.
Russian attacks kill 1, injure 3 in Kherson Oblast. Russian forces have launched strikes against Kherson Oblast, killing one person and injuring at least three, Governor Oleksandr Prokudin reported on July 11.
Russians move units to Zaporizhzhia to hold land corridor to Crimea - Fedorov Russia is increasing the number of its troops in the occupied territory of Zaporizhzhia region in order to hold the land corridor to Crimea.
The Armed Forces of Ukraine have recorded an increase in the number of Russian soldiers who surrendered on the Tavriia front during the past 24 hours, reports Valerii Shershen, spokesman for the Joint Press Centre of the Tavriia Defence Forces, on the national 24/7 newscast.
Commander of the Land Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Oleksandr Syrskyi showed how the soldiers of the 225th separate assault battalion of the Armed Forces of Ukraine repelled a Russian counterattack near the village of Berkhivka, Bakhmut community, Donetsk region.
Zaporozhzhia regional official Rogov reports series of explosions in Berdyansk and Tokmak and Skadovsk, in southern Ukraine. According to preliminary information, the enemy hit the city with Storm Shadow missiles, the air defense system went off - Rogov.
There has been a fire at the Khrunichev Space Research And Production Center in Moscow on July 9. The fire occurred in the 18th workshop (casting units, warehouses with toxic substances) and was extinguished by a special fire department based directly at the Center.
The Russian federal budget will lose $28 billion in tax revenues in 2023, calculated analysts at Vygon Consulting, RIA Novosti reports. Gazprom will lose about $90 billion in revenue compared to last year.
The Kremlin will allow Russia’s Wagner mercenary outfit to keep its Central African Republic (CAR) businesses after mounting a failed mutiny at home, Bloomberg reported Monday, citing two anonymous sources with knowledge of the discussions. Wagner-linked companies have been widely reported to run gold, timber and beer brewing operations in CAR for helping the former French colony fight off a rebel insurgency in recent years. Wagner fighters were at the same time accused of torturing and executing civilians in the CAR.
Russia’s Wagner mercenaries will train the army of neighboring Belarus where they were exiled following a failed mutiny, the Belarusian Defense Ministry said Tuesday. “They’ll tell us about weapons: which ones worked well, which ones did not,” Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko said in a statement issued by his ministry. He said Wagner would also share its expertise on “tactics, armaments, how to attack, how to defend.”
The "shadow fleet" of tankers, which was created to ensure the transportation of Russian oil, has shrunk tenfold, reports Bloomberg. According to Equasis, a global maritime database created to encourage safe shipping, Mumbai-based Gatik Ship Management now manages a fleet of only four oil tankers, when in April it had 42, having acquired the majority of those carriers in less than a year. A Group of Seven (G7) pricing cap pertaining to the transportation of Russian oil caused some of Gatik's fleet to lose access to industry-standard insurance. Soon after, a number of the company's ships also lost their classification with Lloyd's Register, another important organisation that certifies fundamental technical requirements for ships.
“Shameful and unethical”: Yale University points to large companies that still remain in Russia. Over a thousand large companies left Russia after the outbreak of its full-scale war against Ukraine but some well-known brands did not, despite promises to leave the Russian market. Yale University professor Jeffrey A. Sonnenfeld and his team investigated this issue, naming such well-known companies as the Dutch beer giant Heineken, the British company Unilever (Dove soap, Ben & Jerry's ice cream, Lipton tea, Cornetto ice cream), the American biscuit and chocolate manufacturer Mondelez (Oreo, Triscuit crackers, Nabisco snacks), Nestle (Kit Kat, Nescafe coffee, Purina), coworking giant WeWork, the American tobacco company Philip Morris, the American pizza chain Sbarro, and the American fast food chains Carl's Jr. and TGI Friday's.
Russian company Roboavia has announced the construction of a second UAV manufacturing plant, which is to be built in Rostov Oblast, while the first one is already allegedly operating in occupied Crimea, in Simferopol.
Ukrainian military intelligence (HUR) special forces assassinated war criminal Stanislav Rzhytsky in Krasnodar on Jul 10. He behind attacks on civilian targets in Ukraine. His jogging routine was found on the Strava workout app where HUR head Budanov posted a like. Rzhytsky, deputy head of the department for mobilisation, was involved in missile attacks on Ukraine. Kyrylo Budanov previously:
“Any perpetrator that committed any war crimes or crimes against humanity in Ukraine or even just very egregious crimes, like the group rape or killing of civilians and children, will be found and eliminated in any part of the world."
Piotr Andriushchenko, advisor to the mayor of Mariupol, reports that Lieutenant General Oleg Yuriyovich Tsokov was killed in occupied Berdiansk.
Kadyrov’s soldiers from the Akhmat regiment, who rushed to the aid of Russian units that were retreating little by little, were defeated at the entrance to Bakhmut," ATESH partisan movement reports. Dozens were killed and wounded, and those who remained alive left.
According to Svoboda's calculations, about 450 Belarusian volunteers are currently fighting in Ukraine. In October 2022, Svaboda conducted a detailed review of Belarusian military formations that arose in Ukraine during the war. A lot has changed since that moment: the Belarusian Volunteer Corps was formed, "Pagonia" actually ceased to exist, Belarusians joined the II International Legion, and Belarusian attack aircraft appeared in the 79th Separate Airborne Assault Brigade. That is why we are making a new review of who is who among Belarusians in Ukraine.
At least 14 Russian generals support Wagner commander Yevgeny Prigozhin and do not want to follow Russian president Putin, Oleksii Danilov, Secretary of the National Security and Defence Council (NSDC) of Ukraine, has said an interview with Reuters. The media outlet notes that it could not verify his account about the generals independently. At the same time, Reuters journalists spoke with Russians who witnessed the mutiny of the Wagner fighters, and the publication writes that people support Prigozhin. In particular, residents of Boguchar, a garrison town located along the M-4 motorway where a Russian unit is stationed said that the military there did nothing to resist, and that a significant number of people in the town, including people serving in the military, felt sympathy with the Wagner force.
Ukraine’s head of military intelligence, Kyrylo Budanov, told Reuters that Wagner fighters reached a Russian nuclear base called Voronezh-45 during their mutiny with the intention of acquiring small Soviet-era nuclear devices in order to raise the stakes.
Mark Galeotti presents a series of well-argued comments on why this is simply not possible: “If there were any backpack nukes there, a holdover from the 60s and 70s, it is highly dubious whether or not they would still be operable, as they need constant maintenance as the radiation scrambles the electronics. Russian nuclear arsenals are also well-protected by the specialist troops of 12th GUMO. While they lack heavy weapons, they are trained to guard their fortified facilities against a range of threats – including armed attack.” It is to be expected that Budanov would be disseminating information to throw off the Russians or influence Western audiences because that is his job. Finally, Galeotti points out that this is not a ‘Bond movie’.
Minister: Ukrainian Delta system ready to integrate Western equipment, including F-16 jets. The Ukrainian Delta system is ready to integrate Western equipment, including F-16 fighter jets, after successfully passing NATO tests, Digital Transformation Minister Mykhailo Fedorov said on July 11.
Reuters reports that Russia sees no grounds for peace talks with Ukraine, the Interfax news agency cited Russian upper house speaker Valentina Matviyenko as saying on Tuesday during a visit to China.
Nobel Laureate Matviichuk asks South Africa for clear position on Putin's arrest warrant. Oleksandra Matviichuk, a human rights lawyer and a Nobel Prize laureate, asked South African President Cyril Ramaphosa for a clear position on Russian dictator Vladimir Putin's arrest warrant on July 10.
Minister: Factory to produce Bayraktar drones under construction in Ukraine. The Turkish company Baykar has already started constructing a factory in Ukraine to produce Bayraktar drones, Minister for Strategic Industries Oleksandr Kamyshin said on July 10, as cited by Hromadske news outlet.
Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya has commented on Ales Pushkin’s death
Belarus has lost one of its most talented & fearless sons. Ales Pushkin was the embodiment of the indomitable spirit of the Belarusian people. He died as a political prisoner of the regime & the responsibility lies with his jailor, Lukashenka & his cronies.
Ales used his art to fight for freedom & build a new Belarus without tyranny. He dreamed of a free & democratic Belarus. Now we must continue his work & make his dream come true.
Dictators fear artists. Why? Because they have the power to express thoughts & ideas that challenge the regime's lies. They hold a mirror to the world, one that tyrants dread to look into.
I hope that this tragedy will be a wake-up call to the world. How many more people must die behind bars? I call for a strong international reaction to this death & the ongoing inhuman treatment of political prisoners.
NATO Summit Vilnius Day 1
Communiqué: 'Ukraine’s future is in Nato'
“We fully support Ukraine’s right to choose its own security arrangements. Ukraine’s future is in Nato. We reaffirm the commitment we made at the 2008 Summit in Bucharest that Ukraine will become a member of Nato, and today we recognise that Ukraine’s path to full Euro-Atlantic integration has moved beyond the need for the Membership Action Plan.
Ukraine has become increasingly interoperable and politically integrated with the Alliance, and has made substantial progress on its reform path. In line with the 1997 Charter on a Distinctive Partnership between Nato and Ukraine and the 2009 Complement, allies will continue to support and review Ukraine’s progress on interoperability as well as additional democratic and security sector reforms that are required.
Nato Foreign Ministers will regularly assess progress through the adapted Annual National Programme. The Alliance will support Ukraine in making these reforms on its path towards future membership. We will be in a position to extend an invitation to Ukraine to join the Alliance when allies agree and conditions are met.”
Ukrainian president Zelenskyy said it will be “absurd” if Ukraine is not invited to become a Nato member and that uncertaintly over its membership is motivation for Russia to “continue its terror”.
“We value our allies. We value our shared security. And we always appreciate an open conversation. Ukraine will be represented at the Nato summit in Vilnius. Because it is about respect. But Ukraine also deserves respect. Now, on the way to Vilnius, we received signals that certain wording is being discussed without Ukraine.
And I would like to emphasise that this wording is about the invitation to become Nato member, not about Ukraine’s membership. It’s unprecedented and absurd when the time frame is not set neither for the invitation nor for Ukraine’s membership. While at the same time vague wording about “conditions” is added even for inviting Ukraine.
It seems there is no readiness neither to invite Ukraine to Nato nor to make it a member of the Alliance. This means that a window of opportunity is being left to bargain Ukraine’s membership in Nato in negotiations with Russia. And for Russia, this means motivation to continue its terror.
Uncertainty is weakness. And I will openly discuss this at the summit.”
Nato secretary general, Jens Stoltenberg has confirmed the alliance will issue an invitation for Ukraine to join the alliance “when allies agree and conditions are met”, and that the process to the country’s membership would move from a two-step to a one-step pathway.
This includes assistance in transferring the army to NATO standards, the creation of the Ukraine-NATO format, in which Ukraine will have a voice on an equal footing with the members of the Alliance, as well as the abolition of the standard plan for joining NATO.
Hungary’s ratification of Sweden’s Nato membership is “only a technical issue” now and the government backs Sweden’s bid, Reuters reports foreign minister Péter Szijjártó said in a statement on Tuesday as he was heading to the Nato summit in Vilnius.
Stoltenberg welcomes Finnish president Sauli Niinistö to the summit where Finland attends for the first time “as a full fledged member”. He also gives a “warm welcome” to Swedish prime minister Ulf Kristersson and says he we will be welcoming Sweden as a full-fledged member after Turkey dropped its veto and supported the country’s Nato application.
French president Emmanuel Macron said France would start supplying long-range SCALP missiles to Ukraine at the Nato summit in Lithuania on Tuesday.
Germany has finalised a €700m military aid package for Ukraine, according to two government sources who told Reuters on Tuesday. The package reportedly includes 2 patriot launcher missile systems, 40 Marder armoured vehicles and 25 leopard tanks.
Oleksandra Matviichuk, human rights lawyer and 2022 Nobel peace prize winner, has issued a statement about Ukraine’s potential membership of Nato. She says:
The beginning of the actual accession of Ukraine to Nato is a way to end the war, not to expand it. Because “strategic uncertainty” will always serve as a reason for Russia to continue attacking Ukraine.
Therefore, people in Ukraine expect concrete results from the summit in Vilnius. The time for assurances that the door to Nato is open has passed. They should be transformed into decisions that allow starting the process of accession of Ukraine to Nato.
Russia has always used wars and occupation of foreign territories as a fait accompli, thereby creating a new reality and forcing the international community to reckon with it. The democratic countries that participate in Nato should finally take the initiative to start managing this process. We have taken security for granted for too long. It is necessary to take responsibility for our common future.
President Zelenskyy has told crowds at the #UkraineNATO33 rally, being held on the sidelines of the Nato summit in Vilnius, that “Nato will make Ukraine safer and Ukraine will make Nato stronger”.
“Today I embarked on a trip here [Vilnius] with faith in decisions, with faith in partners, with faith in a strong Nato. In a Nato that does not hesitate, does not waste time and does not look back at any aggressor … And I would like this faith to become confidence – confidence in the decisions that we deserve – all of us deserve, and every warrior, every citizen, every mother, every child expects. And is that too much to expect?
Monique: a personal note. I believe it was a mistake not to bring Ukraine into NATO in some format. I perfectly understand the reasoning: Ukraine is at war. However, this decision will only increase Russian cruelty and attacks on civilians. Russian Telegram is celebrating.
Alleged Russian intelligence asset living in London with family under Homes for Ukraine scheme—i-News
The Ukrainian businessman is suspected by the FBI of being a foreign agent for Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB), according to a secret cache of intelligence documents, seen by i.
He was able to travel to London after fleeing Ukraine at the start of the war, and his family then joined him through the official UK refugee scheme.
According to conversations with Government officials, ministers repeatedly clashed over the need for deep security checks for the Homes For Ukraine scheme.
The Ukrainian tycoon, who made his fortune through various Russia-based businesses, is sanctioned by the National Security and Defence Council of Ukraine and is suspected of large-scale financial crimes by Ukraine’s security service (the SBU).
A former FBI officer on the agency’s kleptocrat team said the alleged FSB agent’s arrival in London “rubbed salt in the wound”. The officer spent years investigating the businessman and was stunned to learn he was living a comfortable life in the UK.
“He shouldn’t be a free man, frankly,” they told i. “He definitely has Russian intelligence service connections.”
Programming note—DW video
There is evidence that dual-use items that can also be used for military purposes are reaching Russia – from microelectronics, to replacement parts for related industries, to cars and weapons. How can this be happening in spite of sanctions? Where are the loopholes? To find out, DW reporter Miodrag Soric went to Georgia, a Western-oriented country that officially supports the imposed sanctions. Georgia is also a close neighbor of Russia, with all the economic ties and geopolitical dependencies that that implies. Allegedly, large amounts of exports continue to go to Russia via countries such as Georgia, Kyrgyzstan, and Armenia. How do they get there? How can this be stopped? Miodrag Soric searches for clues.
We’ll also be tackling the issue of sanctions evasions on Kremlin File in an up-coming episode. There are two main routes…but stay tuned to find out.