Jul 13: E-Stories
Day 504: Kyiv UASitRep Bakhmut Dnipro RUdomestic ZNPP NATODay2 UABilaterals ASEAN NorthKorea Kundera Czechia Pszczel A&P Soldatov Kurmanaev Maza Rosenberg Gvaramia Biden
Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
Michael Bociurkiw: “Overnight we had the 4th air raid siren in Kyiv in the last 24 hours, w/Russia launching kamikaze drones towards the capital & other cities. As NATO leaders debate the future of Ukraine in the alliance here’s what actually happens on the ground NATO Summit.”
Stories we’re following…
Update: Russian strike against Zaporizhzhia injures 18, including 6 children. At least 18 people, including six children, were injured in a Russian attack against Zaporizhzhia, Governor Yurii Malashko reported on July 12.
In total, during the day, the Russian forces launched 59 air strikes on the positions of the Defense Forces of Ukraine and populated areas, as well as MLRS 40 attacks. The invaders also attacked Ukraine with Shahed-type drones. As a result of the enemy attacks, there are dead and wounded among the civilian population, including children. Residential buildings and other civilian infrastructure sustained damage.
Russia’s drone strikes on port infrastructure also coincide with the first day of the Nato summit in Vilnius and are likely intended to discourage Nato members from providing more military aid to Ukraine. -ISW
ISW: Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces have abandoned their positions in the dacha area on the east (left) bank of the Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast.
There have been fierce battles in the Kupiansk, Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka and Marinka directions, 22 combat engagements have been recorded, reports General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on Facebook, information as of 18:00 on 12 July.
Ukraine’s armed forces have this morning claimed some progress near Bakhmut in the fighting in the Donetsk region, and also claim to have shot down 11 drones overnight. "In the directions Bila Hora-Andriivka and Bila Hora-Kurdiumivka (the Defense Forces - ed.) have achieved certain success, they are entrenching themselves on the achieved lines," the spokesman said.
As of the morning of 12 July, the water level in the cooling pond of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) remains stable, despite the Russians’ blowing up of the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant, reports press service of State Enterprise National Nuclear Energy Generating Company Energoatom. Energoatom added that recently the water level in the canal has not fallen significantly, and its indicators no longer depend on the Kakhovka reservoir.
On the temporarily occupied territory of the Luhansk region, Russians have begun to confiscate driver's licenses from men who do not have a mark on their military ID card.
"The invaders in the temporarily occupied territories are finding new ways of forced mobilization. Since yesterday, employees of the so-called "traffic police" have begun to confiscate driver's licenses from men who do not have a mark on their military ID card," the statement reads.
Russian forces ramped up counterintelligence measures in the temporarily occupied city of Mariupol (Donetsk Oblast). Russian occupation forces are raiding residential buildings and people’s apartments, where they inspect local residents’ documents and mobile devices in an effort to intimidate them and uncover those who might be helping Ukraine’s Defence Forces.
According to official Russian sources, Wagner PMC is transferring the following weapons back to the Russian MOD: "More than 2,000 pieces, including hundreds of heavy weapons such as T-90, T-80, T-72B3 tanks, Grad and Uragan MLRS, Pantsir anti-aircraft systems, 2S1 Gvozdika self-propelled artillery, 2S3 "Acacia" 152-mm, 2S5 "Hyacinth" 152-mm and 2S4 "Tulip" 240-mm artillery, howitzers and anti-tank guns, mortar systems, multi-purpose armored tractors, APCs, as well as vehicles and 20K small arms.
Destroyed Western armored vehicles may be exhibited at the embassies of countries that supply them to Ukraine. Such a proposal was asked to work out by Russian Chairman of the State Duma, Vyacheslav Volodin.
Steve Rosenberg: “One Russian paper today concludes that Putin has “rehabilitated” Wagner. So why is the state media here still trying to discredit Prigozhin? The article suggests “this could be a sign of conflict within the elite, a battle between different Kremlin towers...”
Hackers suspected of working for Russia's foreign intelligence agency targeted dozens of diplomats at embassies in Ukraine with a fake used car advert in a bid to break into their computers, according to a cybersecurity firm report. The wide-reaching espionage activity targeted people working in at least 22 of the roughly 80 foreign missions in Kyiv.
Mansour Omari: Russia's just vetoed the lifeline for millions of Syrians.
The Assad regime exterminated 10s of thousands of Syrians in its prisons. Not only by TORTURE but also by starvation and deprivation of medicine and any lifelines. Assad regime with the help of Putin’s complicit hand blocked lifesaving aid, using the same tactics of crimes against humanity of starvation and deprivation of medical care in its prisons.
Assad regime is trying to lock Syrians up in an open prison, under the notorious motto of Assad soldiers: starve or kneel! The world should not allow Assad & Putin to block the only lifeline for millions of Syrians, & shouldn't ignore their lives & fail them again & again. The international community can and must deliver cross-border aid regardless of UNSC approval.
Oleg Morozov, the general director of the enterprise that develops small arms and combat equipment for the military TsNIItochmash, will be fired on Friday, July 14, a RIA Novosti source said. “His entire team — three deputy CEOs, three advisers and others — have already retired,” he added. Morozov’s directorship has been the focus of intense scrutiny by Russian authorities for not providing the equipment and uniforms necessary for the Russian armed forces.
The Russian economy is faced with a massive drop in foreign currency inflows, follows from the quarterly statistics of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation. In April-June, Russia received only $5.4 billion in a balance of payments surplus. Compared to the same period last year, the conditional foreign exchange profit of the economy has collapsed by 14 times, or by 93%, and if compared with the first quarter of this year, it is almost three times.
The war with Ukraine, sending 300 thousand people to the front and the emigration of about a million more Russians against this background left the Russian industry without workers. Manufacturing enterprises, which, as planned by the authorities, should replace imports from Western countries, lack about 660,000 specialists, said Vasily Osmakov, First Deputy Minister of Industry and Trade of the Russian Federation.
Russia’s Central Bank: Russians withdrew 100 billion rubles ($1.1 billion) during Prigozhin’s rebellion. Andrey Belousov, Russia’s First Deputy Prime Minister, said that cash withdrawals rose by 70-80% in southern Russia, including in Rostov, Voronezh, and Lipetsk, during Prigozhin’s rebellion, and stabilized again by June 26.
Norway to send 1,000 reconnaissance drones to Ukraine. Norway will send Ukraine 1,000 Black Hornet drones, Norwegian Defense Minister Bjørn Arild Gram said on July 12. The small drone, which weighs 32 grams and is used for reconnaissance and target identification, falls into the "nano drones" category. The Norwegians will also provide Ukraine with a Norwegian Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile System (NASAMS) air defense support package, containing two launch units, two fire control centers, and spare parts.
The EU's foreign policy body, the European External Action Service (EEAS), has developed a draft plan to provide Ukraine with "security obligations" that provide for constant military support and cooperation, reports Politico. Proposals of the EU foreign ministry on "security guarantees" for Ukraine, which currently have the status of recommendations, cover options ranging from "sustainable" arms supplies, continuing military exercises, sharing intelligence, to helping establish ties between Ukrainian and European defence companies. A key element of such commitments is the creation of a "special" fund for long-term military support for Ukraine, which will be valid until 2027.
New Technology Sees Through Russian Attempt To Hide Ships From Ukraine. Russia is attempting to hide important warships in the Black Sea by painting them in a new deceptive camouflage scheme. The ruse makes it difficult to judge their length and shape, and so identify them in satellite imagery. This could make it more difficult for Ukrainian planners and, potentially, even thwart an attack. Defense analysts have been exploring how effective it is. Initial checks in some satellite images confirmed the viability of the camouflage.
Please check out Day 2 NATO Summit in Vilnius on EuroFile
President Zelensky on negotiations at Vilnius: «We will never exchange any status with any of our territories, even if it is a village where a grandfather lives. We will not give up our territories and we will never exchange them for any frozen conflict, this will never happen."
Former NATO envoy to Moscow, Pszczel spoke with the Kyiv Independent: ‘Potential escalation with Russia is a myth’
Russia’s war against Ukraine is “a direct attack on international law. ...Russia has, with this invasion, destroyed the international security architecture,” former NATO envoy to Moscow from 2010-2015, Robert Pszczel said.
Czech president: Any success on the battlefield will form basis for future negotiations. Any achievements on the battlefield by the end of the year will form the basis of future negotiations between Ukraine and Russia, Czech President Petr Pavel said on the sidelines of the NATO summit in Vilnius on July 11, European Pravda reports.
North Korea fired a suspected intercontinental ballistic missile off its east coast, as leaders of South Korea and Japan were set to meet on the sidelines of a NATO summit to discuss threats. The suspected ICBM flew for 74 minutes to an altitude of 6,000 km and range of 1,000 km, Japan's chief cabinet secretary said.
ASEAN chair Indonesia stressed the importance of the regional bloc's unity in remaining credible, as its foreign ministers started talks expected to touch on the thorny issue of engaging Myanmar's ostracized ruling generals. The meeting in Jakarta comes as doubts grow over ASEAN's effectiveness.
Czech-born writer Milan Kundera, author of the novel "The Unbearable Lightness of Being" has died aged 94. He won accolades for his style depicting themes and characters that floated between the mundane reality of everyday life and the lofty world of ideas.
Aleksandar Vulin, current Director of the Serbian Security Information Agency and former Minister of Interior and Defense, has been implicated in transnational organized crime, illegal narcotics operations, and misuse of public office.
Borogan & Soldatov, Putin’s Real Security Crisis
Among the many lingering questions about the Wagner leader Yevgeny Prigozhin’s rebellion is why Russia’s vast security apparatus was so poorly prepared for it. The FSB, the Kremlin’s main internal security service, has long placed a heavy emphasis on “prevention” and taking aggressive steps to preempt any threats to the state before they occur. The security agency even had informants within the Wagner organization. Yet it seems to have taken no action to stop the mutiny before it started or to warn the Kremlin about Prigozhin’s plans.
Then, as Wagner forces made their move, both the FSB and Russia’s National Guard, the main body assigned to maintain internal security and suppress unrest in Russia, failed as rapid response forces. The National Guard made every effort to avoid a direct confrontation with Wagner; for its part, the FSB—which also has several elite special forces groups—did not appear to take any action at all. Instead, the most powerful security agency in the country issued a press release calling on Wagner’s rank and file to stay out of the uprising and to go arrest Prigozhin—on their own.
Equally startling was the reaction of Russia’s military intelligence, GRU, to the Wagner escapade. Consider that moment when Wagner forces marched into Rostov-on-Don, Russia’s main command center for the war in Ukraine. As Prigozhin sat together with Yunus-Bek Yevkurov, deputy minister of defense, and Vladimir Alekseyev, first deputy head of the GRU, Alekseyev seemed to agree with Prigozhin that there was a problem with Russia’s military leadership. When Prigozhin said he wanted to get Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and General Valery Gerasimov, the head of Russian forces in Ukraine, apparently to make them answer for their mistakes, Alekseyev laughed and replied, “You can have them!” Shortly after these comments were aired, a member of Russian special forces told us, “Alekseyev is right.” [continue]
Biden’s speech at NATO
This was the last bit I had not put into the main post about Day 2 NATO Summit
NATO is "stronger and more united" than at any time in its history;
Vladimir Putin apparently assumed that NATO would "fall apart" when he launched his invasion of Ukraine;
“He [Putin] thought democratic leaders would be weak…he was wrong”;
"The people of Ukraine remain unbroken."
The idea that the US can "thrive" without a secure Europe is "unfounded."
“We must unite to protect rights and freedoms”.
"The choices we make now will determine the direction of our world for decades to come."
“Will we repulse undisguised aggression today in order to deter potential aggressors tomorrow? Can we stop the climate crisis before it's too late? Will we use new technologies to expand freedom, or will we reduce it? How we answer these important questions will literally determine the future of our children and grandchildren”.
Watch Biden’s speech from 22: 35