Jul 16: Sunday Stories
Day 507: Zaporizhzhia Kramatorsk Donetsk Luhansk BEL SLB CH grain Ramaphosa EE POWs ROC aluminum US EU Yoon Bulgaria Popov Ecocide A&P ISW UKDef McKew Halushka Pew/Gallup Hodges Lévy
Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
Something to smile about: A Ukrainian Azovstal soldier who survived 86 days of battle in Mariupol, followed by 351 days of captivity in Russia, has finally returned back home. This first thing he did? Marry his girlfriend.
Stories we’re following…
Russia unleashes drones, bombards southern Ukraine overnight. Russian forces have launched drone attacks and shelled front-line towns and villages in southern Ukraine over the past day, leaving at least one civilian injured, local authorities reported on July 15.
Ukraine says it destroyed Russian S-400 missile system used in deadly strike on Kramatorsk. According to the military, a U.S.-provided HIMARS was used to strike the Russian target.
Russian attack on Zaporizhzhia Oblast injures 3 people. Russian troops attacked the town of Stepnohirsk in Zaporizhzhia Oblast with Grad multiple-launch rocket systems, injuring three people on July 15, President's Office Head Andrii Yermak wrote on Telegram.
The armed forces of Ukraine continued to try to advance in the Donetsk, Krasnoliman and Yuzhno-Donetsk directions. In the Donetsk direction, 17 attacks by the Armed Forces of Ukraine were repelled and Belogorovka of the Lugansk region.
The activities of five Ukrainian sabotage and reconnaissance groups were stopped: in the area of Kurdyumivka, Staromayorsky and Rivnopol, Donetsk region, Chervona Dibrova, Luhansk region, and Zherebyanka, Zaporozhye region.
Tavria troops destroy 9 ammunition depots, demolish Russian military equipment. Ukrainian forces in the Tavria Group made gains on the southern front line, destroying nine ammunition depots and wrecking military equipment in Russian-occupied territory on July 14, Brigadier General Oleksandr Tarnavskyi reported on Telegram.
Kyiv's troops forcing Russians out of southern positions, says Ukraine. A top Ukrainian general has reported new progress on the war’s southern front, saying his troops are “systematically moving the enemy out of their positions”. Reuters reports that Gen Oleksander Tarnavskyi, commander of Ukrainian forces in the south, said on Telegram on Saturday that enemy losses over the previous 24 hours were equivalent to at least 200.
Border Guard Service: Russia pulls almost all its troops from Belarus. As part of the latest military rotation, Russia has withdrawn almost all its troops from Belarus, the State Border Guard Service's spokesperson Andrii Demchenko said on July 14.
A large convoy carrying fighters from the Wagner private army was spotted entering Belarus from Russia early Saturday, the Belarusian Hajun Project reported after the country’s defense ministry said it planned for the mercenaries and Minsk’s own armed forces to conduct joint military drills. The Belarusian Hajun counted 60 trucks, buses and other large vehicles, which crossed into the eastern European country accompanied by Belarusian police.
The convoy headed toward a military base outside Osipovichi, a town 230 kilometers (142 miles) north of the Ukrainian border. (photo: Belarusian Hajun Project)
Belarusian Defense Ministry announces 'roadmap' with Wagner Group. The armed forces of Belarus and leaders of the Wagner mercenary company have agreed on a "roadmap" for future cooperation, the press service of the Belarusian Defense Ministry announced via Telegram on July 14.
SLB halts all shipments of products and technology into Russia. Oilfield services company SLB announced on July 14 that it will immediately stop all shipments of its products and technology from its facilities worldwide.
Chinese parts found in Russian missiles.
Moscow denies agreeing to extend Black Sea grain deal. The Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that Russia didn't make any statements about agreeing to prolong the Black Sea Grain Initiative, Russian state-owned news agency Interfax reported on July 14.
Russia rejected President Ramaphosa’s request for Lavrov to attend the BRICS Summit instead Putin, reports South Africa’s Deputy President Paul Mashatile. “We understand we are bound by the Rome Statute, but we can’t invite someone, and then arrest him. We would be happy if he [Putin] doesn’t come,” said Mashatile, according to RBK media group. The outlet wrote that South Africa had offered three possible solutions: either the Russian Foreign Ministry could lead the Russian delegation, Putin could participate in the summit online, or China, a BRICS member, could host the event.
Russia’s disapproval rate: Gallup and Pew
Counter to some impressions, the U.S. and its allies aren’t the only ones who care about Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Gallup surveys in 137 countries show Russia’s image has suffered worldwide since it began its war in Ukraine. For the first time in Gallup’s history of tracking ratings of world leaders, the majority of the world disapproves of Russia’s leadership.
the 137 countries and territories that Gallup surveyed in 2022, a median of 57% said they disapprove of Russia’s leadership -- a dramatic increase from 38% in 2021 and by far the highest point in Gallup’s trend dating back to 2007.
Out of 137 countries surveyed in 2022, majorities in 81 disapproved of Russian leadership. High-income, Western-aligned democracies tended to give the highest disapproval ratings, with figures exceeding 90% in the U.S. (93%), Canada (91%) and 10 European countries -- including Poland, one of Ukraine’s staunchest allies in Europe, where 95% disapproved. In Ukraine itself, 96% disapproved.
Pew Report
Vadim Konoschenok was detained by Estonian authorities in October 2022 while trying to cross into Russia carrying 35 types of semiconductors and electronic components, some of which were subject to U.S. export controls, prosecutors said. He’s now been extradicted to the U.S. Vadim Konoschenok is expected to make an initial appearance in federal court in Brooklyn on July 14. Prosecutors are requesting that he be detained pending trial, calling him a flight risk.
Military intelligence comments on next reported transfer of Ukrainian POWs to Hungary. The Russian Orthodox Church (ROC) is planning another transfer of Ukrainian prisoners of war to Hungary, the Main Directorate of Intelligence (HUR) spokesperson Andrii Yusov told Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty on July 14.
Moscow-backed Orthodox Church metropolitan taken into custody. Kyiv's court changed the measure of restraint for Russian-led Orthodox Metropolitan Pavlo (Petro Lebid) from 24-hour house arrest to detention, Suspilne news outlet reported on July 14. He is accused of inciting hatred and justifying Russia's war against Ukraine.
Reuters: European trade group considers sanctions on Russian aluminum. A document circulated among members of the trade group European Aluminum said the group has discussed pushing for sanctions on Russian aluminum, Reuters reports.
During the full-scale invasion, Russian committed ecocide in Ukraine, while unlawfully occupying the territory of Ukraine, resulting in environmental damage, poaching, and capturing of wild animals, leaving them on the verge of extinction..
Pentagon: Ukraine battlefield situation currently 'not ideal' for F-16 deployment. The battlefield conditions in Ukraine are currently "not ideal" for the employment of F-16 fighter jets, said Lieutenant General Douglas Sims, the director of operations of the Joint Staff, on July 13.
US to repurchase Taiwan's Hawk missiles for Ukraine aid. Washington will repurchase decommissioned HAWK air defense missiles it sold to Taiwan and deliver them to Ukraine as part of a military aid package, the China Times reported on July 14, citing its sources.
Bloomberg: EU, European Central Bank argue over plan to tax sanctioned Russian assets. Officials from the EU's executive branch have opposed ECB President Christine Lagarde's warnings that measures against sanctioned holdings could endanger the eurozone's financial stability and the liquidity of the common currency, people familiar with the matter told Bloomberg.
Scholz: Germany to provide Ukraine with over $19 billion in weapons over 5 years. In a July 14 press conference, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said that Germany expects to provide Ukraine with $19 billion, or 17 billion euros, in arms deliveries until 2027.
Yoon travelled to Ukraine with his wife, Kim Keon-hee, after trips to Lithuania for a Nato summit and to Poland, his office said. It is his first visit since Russia invaded Ukraine almost 17 months ago. Yoon toured Bucha and Irpin, a pair of small cities near Kyiv where bodies of civilians were found in the streets and mass graves discovered after Russian troops retreated from the capital region last year. He laid flowers at a monument to the country’s war dead.
Ukraine criticised Bulgaria’s pro-Russian president, Rumen Radev, over his remarks that Kyiv is to blame for Russia’s ongoing war and that supplying arms to Ukraine only prolongs the conflict. Radev had told reporters on Friday, during a news conference in which he spoke about the recent Nato summit, that he wanted “to make it clear that Ukraine insists on fighting this war.” “But it should also be clear that the bill is paid by the whole of Europe,” he added. Blaming the war on Ukraine, which “was treacherously attacked by its northern neighbour, is one of the most common supporting theses of Russian propaganda and hybrid warfare in Europe,” the Ukrainian embassy in Sofia said.
Russia will send troops from its air force and navy to take part in a China-led joint military exercise in the Sea of Japan, or East Sea, the Chinese defence ministry announced on Saturday. Without giving the date of the “Northern/Interaction-2023” exercise, organised by the People’s Liberation Army’s Northern Theatre Command, the ministry said the drills would focus on “maintaining the security of strategic maritime corridors”.
“This joint exercise aims at enhancing the level of strategic cooperation between the Chinese and Russian militaries, as well as strengthening both sides’ ability to jointly safeguard regional peace and stability when dealing with various security challenges,” it said in a statement.
Ben Wallace clarifies his remarks at Nato Summit
UK Defence Secretary Ben Wallace said that his words about "supporting Ukraine" caused a lot of interest but were partially distorted; he also assured that he would support Ukraine as long as necessary. Earlier, UK Defence Secretary Ben Wallace urged Ukraine to express more gratitude to its partners for their military aid instead of constantly making demands for new types of weapons to be unblocked.
"For the record, as someone who has been at the forefront of galvanising support for Ukraine, I was discussing the challenges that can occur as we work towards the shared aim of helping Ukraine procure what they need to triumph against this illegal invasion.
I talked about the need for Ukraine to sometimes recognise that in many countries and in some Parliaments, there is not the strong support that there is in the UK. This was not a comment about governments, but more about citizens and MPs across the international community."
Ben Wallace to resign as UK Defense Minister, not contest MP seat. U.K. Defense Minister Ben Wallace has said in an interview published by the Times on July 15 that he plans to resign from his post at the next reshuffle of Cabinet and would not run for parliament in the next general election.
Olena Halushka: “Parents know the value of a good children's book. These two are perfect for bedtime reading. One is poetry, the other stories about a funny excavator. However, these talented authors won't publish new books ever again. russians tortured Volodymyr Vakulenko in Izyum, & killed our brilliant Viktoria Amelina in Kramatorsk. But their legacy will live w our kids.”
Molly McKew: They can never leave
The real story of the “young” far-right M*G* “manhood”-heads is that none of them finished college — actually many never even went — because they were hand picked & cultivated via a right wing radicalization pipeline that has been deliberately built over the past 3 decades.
The whole point of grabbing enthusiastic high school kids is that by giving them a vague position with pay and connection to authority, they are totally dependent on you and more likely to become unquestioning zealots of whatever ideology — also they can never leave.
They have no education, no real experience, they can’t alienate whoever chose them or elevated them to edgelord because they have no skills and can easily be blacklisted from the gravy train.
Leaving is hard.
A handful of people from the pipeline have done it. It’s not simple.
But the deliberate structuring of this is deeply troubling.