EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
Putin: "There will be a response from Russia to the terrorist attack on the Crimean bridge. The Ministry of Defense is preparing relevant proposals. What happened was another terrorist attack by the Kyiv regime, which had no logic from a military point of view,"
Stories we’re following…
Russia said it has halted the wartime deal that allows grain to flow from Ukraine to countries in Africa, the Middle East and Asia where hunger is a growing threat and high food prices have pushed more people into poverty.
"The grain deal is terminated. Russia will immediately return to the"grain deal as soon as the agreements concerning it are fulfilled," Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said.
EU President Ursula von der Leyen said that she strongly condemns “Russia’s cynical move to terminate the Black Sea Grain initiative, despite UN and Turkey’s efforts. The EU is working to ensure food security for the world’s vulnerable. The EU Solidarity Lanes wil continue bringing agrifood products out of Ukraine and to global markets.”
Kyiv, which accuses Moscow of sabotaging the deal, is readying alternative routes to export its grain and oilseed crops.
“Russia is exporting record amounts of grain,” Ambassador Jim O’Brien, head of the State Department’s Office of Sanctions Coordination, told POLITICOahead in an interview ahead of Monday’s announcement in Moscow. “There's no evidence that Russia is impeded in its exports,” he said, adding that the EU, the U.S., the U.K and U.N. have worked very closely with specific companies said to be facing difficulties to address their concerns.
Russia’s withdrawal from the initiative “would make it solely responsible for a devastating blow to global grain security,” said O’Brien. “President Putin is well aware that if he chooses to impede or end this arrangement, that he'll be causing a great deal of trouble for the Global South.”
US aid chief Samantha Power on Monday announced more than $500m (£380m) in humanitarian assistance during a visit to Ukraine, expressing “grave dismay” with Russia’s decision to suspend its participation in a pact that has allowed the Black Sea grain deal.
China’s UN ambassador, Zhang Jun, expressed hope that all parties involved could find a way forward, specifically mentioning that Russia had concerns:
We still hope that, you know, by accommodating the concerns of all parties … then we can find a package solution.
Ukrainian defenders liberated nearly 18 square km of territory over past week – Deputy Defence Minister. They advanced over 1 kilometer in Berdiansk direction. Ukrainian forces have advanced more than one kilometer in the Berdiansk direction, military spokesperson Valerii Shershen reported on July 16.
General Staff: Russia attacks dozens of settlements in 6 oblasts. Russian forces have conducted six missile strikes and 38 airstrikes and shelled around 30 locations over the past day, the General Staff of Ukraine’s Armed Forces reported in its evening update on July 16.
Russian occupying troops have gone on the offensive on the Kupiansk front, said the Commander of the Ground Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi, quoted by theMilitary Media Center. The operational situation on the Eastern front remains difficult.
Russia has "more than 100,000 personnel, more than 900 tanks, more than 555 artillery systems, 370 MLRS" in the Lyman-Kupiansk direction, according to the Eastern Military Command's spokesperson.
The last few days have seen a significant increase in the work of Russian propagandists, producing videos and photos featuring captured Ukrainian soldiers, reports Coordination Headquarters on the Treatment of Prisoners of War. More than 4,800 such messages have been documented over the past week. On some days the Russians have produced over 870 messages via more than 1,300 sources. This increase in Russian propaganda may indicate that attempts are being made by the country's military and political leadership to "dilute" opinions within Russian society about the failures of their army at the front.
A Russian Su-25 fighter-bomber crashed into the Sea of Azov near the town of Yeysk on Monday but the pilot ejected successfully, local officials said in a statement on social media. Unverified videos shared on social media appeared to show a parachute descending over the sea near a beach, and a large splash in the water. Yeysk lies across the Sea of Azov from the Russian-controlled part of Ukraine’s Donetsk region.
Russia continued its assault on Kharkiv last night and air raid sirens sounded through the night. Loud explosions were heard in the central district on, just hours after one person was killed and four wounded in an earlier attack.
Fire reported at military hospital in Russia. Russian media on July 16 reported a fire at a non-functional military hospital in the Russian city of Bryansk.
President Erdoğan believes that Putin actually wants the extension of the so-called "grain deal" and intends to discuss it with him. "Despite the statement today, I believe that President Putin wants this humanitarian bridge to continue" Erdoğan said at a news conference in Istanbul before heading to Saudi Arabia for an official visit. He added that he might "take steps via a phone call with Putin without waiting for August," when the Russian leader is expected to make a personal visit to Türkiye.
The Kremlin has announced it may give legal status to some of Russia’s private military companies (PMCs), notably the Wagner Group but also lesser-known militias like Convoy, Patriot, the Moran Security Group and Shchit (Shield). Legally, these shadow paramilitary groups do not exist – which allows them to operate parallel to Russia's armed forces, at times doing high-risk "dirty" jobs for the army while giving Moscow a measure of deniability.
Russian forces in occupied Zaporizhzhia Oblast withhold medicine to residents who refuse Russian passports. Russian forces are denying Ukrainian residents under occupation in Zaporizhzhia Oblast access to discounted medications if they do not obtain Russian passports, the Ukrainian military's National Resistance Center reported on July 16.
The Belarusian Hajun Project: PMC Wagner is arriving at the camp in Tsel village. The New York Times received fresh satellite images of the tent camp in Tsel village near Asipovichy, taken by Maxar on July 14 and July 16.
The image of July 14 (Friday) shows almost no changes, but the journalists write that the first truck appeared on the image of July 13, which indicates some activity in the camp even before a large column of the Wagner group arrived on July 15 (Saturday).
They also publish the image of July 16 (Sunday), and it shows a clear burst of activity: at least 5 trucks, buses, containers, pickups and UAZ vehicles right next to the tents. The journalists also noticed a small group of people and a van (Bukhanka) in the fresh images.
We note that trucks and buses were present in the large column of PMC Wagner, which entered Belarus at around 03:00 on July 15 and was moving along the R43 and M5 highways towards Asipovichy.
Ukraine expects to kick out Russians who illegally moved to Crimea after annexation. Tamila Tasheva, President Zelensky's permanent representative for Crimea, told Newsweek on July 16 that Ukraine will have to deal with an estimated 500,000 to 800,000 Russian citizens who came illegally to Crimea after annexation.
Nataliya Vasilyeva reporting on the camps in Belarus where Ukrainian children are illegally deported:
Belarus implicated in forced deportation of thousands of Ukrainian children. Est to hit 3,000 kids by this fall.
Three “camps” are in the Minsk region, including the Ostroshitsky Gorodok Sanatorium, the Zubrenok national children’s educational and health centre, and Dubrava children’s camp, owned by the Belarusian state fertiliser company Belaruskali.
One video submitted to the ICC as evidence shows the Gruzdev sisters, Belarusian pop singers, speaking to Ukrainian children at what is believed to be the Dubrava camp: "So that we live in peace, so that Biden dies, God forgive me, so that Zelensky dies too."
More is coming up this week, looking at Russian efforts to brainwash Ukrainian kids and some of the Russian officials behind it
US national security adviser Jake Sullivan believes that the supply of cluster munitions to Ukraine will not affect the moral authority of the United States, he said in an interview with NBC News.
“Our moral authority and the moral authority of Ukraine in this conflict lies in the fact that we support a country that has been brutally attacked by a neighbor, rockets and bombs are falling on its cities, killing civilians, destroying its schools, churches and hospitals. It seems dubious to me that giving Ukraine weapons so that they can defend their home, protect their civilians, is some kind of challenge to our moral authority, ”Sullivan said.
Teledyne FLIR Defense will supply an additional 1,000 Black Hornet micro drones to Ukraine as part of an order from Norway’s ministry of defense, the company said on Monday. The pocket-sized drones are suitable for operations in global positioning system-denied environments and are useful in transmitting live visible and thermal videos, Reuters reports.
The British government said on Monday it had introduced further Russian sanctions, including against Russian education ministerSergey Kravtsov, related to what it describes as Moscow’s forced deportation of Ukrainian children. Britain imposed 14 sanctions designations in response to “Russia’s attempts to destroy Ukrainian national identity”, 11 of which it said were linked to the forcible relocation of children. They will be subject to asset freezes and travel bans, Reuters reports.
Defence of Ukraine: You can easily recognize a person who has been on the front lines by looking into their eyes. These eyes have seen death every day. Eyes like these know the true value of life.
Andrew E Kramer in the The New York Times has written about the deadlylandmines that are slowing the progress of Ukraine’s counteroffensive.
It was a grisly scene of bloody limbs and crumpled vehicles as a series of Russian mines exploded across a field in southern Ukraine.
One Ukrainian soldier stepped on a mine and tumbled onto the grass in the buffer zone between the two armies. Nearby lay other Ukrainian troops, their legs in tourniquets, waiting for medical evacuation, according to videos posted online and the accounts of several soldiers involved…
Five weeks into a counteroffensive that even Ukrainian officials say is off to a halting start, interviews with commanders and soldiers fighting along the front indicate the slow progress comes down to one major problem: land mines.
StopFake: RosZMI spread the news that Hollywood superstar Johnny Depp is going to come to Russia. Everything turned out to be untrue - both the planned recording of a song with a little-known Russian band and the appeal to the Russian audience.
Over 50 leaders from the EU, Latin America and the Caribbeanhold their first summit in eight years, adding momentum to an EU push for new political and economic allies prompted by the Ukraine war and suspicion of China. Regardless of the outcome, officials said the meeting marked a step towards stronger ties.
China's economy grew at a frail pace in the second quarter as demand weakened at home and abroad, raising pressure on policymakers to deliver more stimulus to shore up activity. GDP grew just 0.8% in April-June from the previous quarter, compared with a 2.2% expansion in the first quarter.
Globally agreed rules leave crypto firms withno option but to introduce basic safeguards to prevent the blow-ups seen at FTX exchange and other crypto casualties, the G20's Financial Stability Board said.
The ninth anniversary of the downing by Russian forces of MH17 is a reminder of the tragic and triumphant bond between Ukraine and Australia.
We can never forget the 38 Australian souls that fell from the sky to rest on Ukrainian soil on July 17, 2014.
We remember those Australians and others who passed away on MH-17 and extend our sympathies to their families and loved ones. To use that most poignant and respectful of Australian phrases: Lest We Forget.
It is only just and appropriate that those responsible for their murder, and that of all other passengers and crew on the flight, are being pursued by international judicial processes. They must be held accountable to the fullest extent of the law and face the full consequences of their evil act. It is important that there has been recent progress in this regard.
Russian proxy forces posed for smiling photos amid the wreckage and the bodies from the civilian airliner they had just destroyed.
Because Ukraine is the final resting place for these innocent Australians, we are particularly moved and grateful when Australia comes to our assistance in our time of need. This includes from the time of the extraordinary work of Australian teams after the crash to today when Australia stands with Ukraine in partnership for peace, democratic values, and a rules-based order.
In that respect, it must be noted that the MH-17 tragedy only occurred because Russia, under the leadership of Vladimir Putin, illegally, unilaterally and savagely invaded Ukraine.
Putin bears as much blame for the deaths of those on MH-17 as those who fired a weapon that summer day over eastern Ukraine. He is as much to blame for the deaths of more than 20,000 Ukrainian civilians, including more than 500 children, since the start of his full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
The malice that motivated MH-17 continues every day in Ukraine when its civilian cities and villages are hit with missiles, rockets, air strikes and artillery shells – including some 80 communities yesterday alone.
Changing Places: Europeans Grow More Assertive on Ukraine as Washington Shows Caution- WSJ
Last week’s NATO summit revealed a major realignment within the U.S.-led trans-Atlantic alliance.
European nations, once seen as less steadfast in their support for Kyiv and more vulnerable to Russian pressure, are determined to help Ukraine win an unambiguous victory. At the same time, the Biden administration, which orchestrated a unified Western response to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invasion last year, is increasingly cautious—constrained by domestic politics and a fear of direct confrontation with Moscow.
In Europe, the once-gaping divisions between different capitals have narrowed sharply, as countries previously seen as soft on Russia, including France, Italy, Spain and to a lesser extent Germany, have all moved much closer to Ukraine’s fiercest supporters: Poland, the Baltic and the Nordic states.
“It took a while, but then it seeped through. Today a lot of leaders around Europe, including Germany, understand that they must help Ukraine defeat Putin if they want to defend their own security,” said Reinhard Bütikofer, a German member of the European Parliament. “They have well understood that Putin’s threat to Ukraine has significance far beyond Ukraine itself.”
