Jul 19: E-Stories
Day 510: UASitRep RUSitRep Odesa Mykolaiv Kherson Ireland Kerch GrainDeal Lukashenka Dondon Ze Ramstein CELAC EU US Georgia A&P TelegraphVasilyeva Guterres Mamedov Braw MacKay Diamond Ivanova
Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
Stories we’re following…
Russia unleashes drones on southern Ukraine, fire reported in Mykolaiv. Russian forces launched drone attacks on Odesa, Mykolaiv and Kherson oblasts overnight on July 18, according to the Southern Operational Command update. Andriy Yermak has commented on Russia’s overnight attacks. He posted to Telegram to say:
“The Russian night attack on Odesa and Mykolaiv with the use of rockets and kamikaze drones is more proof that the terrorist country wants to endanger the lives of 400 million people in various countries that depend on Ukrainian food exports.
The world must understand that the goal of the Russian Federation is hunger and killing people. They need waves of refugees. With this, they want to weaken the west.”
Russia’s defence ministry said on Tuesday it had carried out overnight strikes on two Ukrainian port cities in what it called “a mass revenge strike” a day after an attack on the Crimean bridge, which it blamed on Kyiv.
German foreign minister Annalena Baerbock on Tuesday said every missile fired by Russia at the Ukrainian port of Odesa was also the equivalent of firing a missile at people who are starving in the world.
Explosions were heard in occupied Crimea's Krasnoperekopsk, the local TG channel Krymskyi veter reports. Ahead of the explosions, helicopters were heard in the air.
War update: Heavy battles ongoing on five sections of front. Heavy battles are ongoing in Kupyansk, Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiyivka, and Maryinka directions. Eighteen combat engagements took place there during the day.
Defense forces seize initiative in Kupyansk direction – Maliar. In Kupyansk direction, the offensive of the Russian troops was unsuccessful, the initiative is already on the side of Ukraine’s defense forces.
Military intelligence: Surovikin 'effectively removed from position' but his fate undecided. Army General Sergey Surovikin, a deputy commander of the Russian invasion forces in Ukraine, was removed from his post but his fate remains undecided, the Main Directorate of Intelligence's (HUR) spokesperson Andrii Yusov said on July 18.
Military: Russia concentrating forces, on offensive in Lyman-Kupiansk direction. Russia is concentrating "more than 100,000 personnel, more than 900 tanks, more than 555 artillery systems, 370 MLRS" in the Lyman-Kupiansk direction, according to Serhii Cherevatyi, spokesperson for Ukraine’s Eastern Military Command.
Russian air defences and electronic countermeasure systems downed 28 Ukrainian drones over Crimea in the early hours of Tuesday, the RIA news agency has cited the Russian defence ministry as saying.
Britain’s top military official, Admiral Sir Tony Radakin, has said on Sky News that the UK is picking apart Russian military vehicles captured in Russia to see what can be learned from them.
“It’s really important because we’re in a club of nations that when we get hold of Russian kit or other nations’ kit that might be a danger to us in the future, we share that knowledge.
.But we also have the scientists that unpick the detail that another nation might have to a really forensic level, and that helps us to understand: how does their equipment work? How can we defeat it? How can we have even better armour? How can we disrupt their communications? How can we ensure that we can penetrate their defences?”
ISW: Crimean Bridge attack continues to affect Russian logistics in southern Ukraine. The Crimean Bridge targeted on July 17 remains one of two ground lines of communication (GLOCs) supporting Russia’s southern force grouping. The other route passes through the occupied Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson oblasts, the Institute for the Study of War explained. The attack on the Kerch Bridge and Moscow’s continued promotion of Crimea as a tourist destination will have “significant impacts” on Russian logistics in southern Ukraine amid the Ukrainian counteroffensive, the Institute for the Study of War has said in its latest assessment of the conflict.
It also noted that shortages of supplies was one of the complaints brought up by Maj Gen Ivan Popov, who commanded the 58th Combined Arms army and who said he was recently fired for complaining about the dire situation of Russian forces on the frontlines.
The Kremlin Yap: “In order to protect the Crimean bridge, it is necessary to occupy the entire south of Ukraine right up to Transnistria (Moldova), because there are also Russian people who are now isolated” - the propagandist Sivkov says.
Russian official: One part of Crimean Bridge can't be restored. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Marat Khusnullin said that one span of the part of the Crimean Bridge for road vehicles is completely destroyed and cannot be restored.
Partial road traffic opened on one lane of the Crimean Bridge late on Monday, Russian deputy prime minister Marat Khusnullin said on his Telegram channel, almost 24 hours after it was struck by two explosions. Ferry crossings were closed on Tuesday due to weather conditions.
“Motor transport on the Crimean Bridge has been restored in reverse mode on the most outer right lane,” Khusnullin wrote on Monday according to Reuters.
Putin claims 'there will be a response' to Crimean Bridge attacks. In a meeting broadcast on July 17, Putin claimed that the Defense Ministry is preparing a response to the "acts of terrorism" which damaged the Crimean Bridge earlier in the day.
The mayor of Kharkiv, Ihor Terekhov, said the bridge was a legitimate military target and that the attack would cause “a lot of logistical problems for Russia”. In an interview with the Guardian, Terekhov dismissed Russia’s claim that it was an act of Ukrainian terrorism, saying that the Kremlin had brought death and destruction to his city on an epic scale.
Russia’s parliament has extended the eligibility for military call-up by at least five years – in the case of the highest-ranking officers, up to the age of 70. It is already raising the upper age limit for men to be called up for compulsory military service from 27 to 30, and has made it much harder for young men to avoid the draft by dodging recruiters handing out call-up papers.
Monitoring group: Third Wagner convoy arrives in Belarus. A third convoy of the Wagner Group has arrived in Belarus, heading to the Asipovichy camp, the monitoring group Belarusian Hajun reported on July 17.
No fast results: "We'd like to get very fast results, but in reality it's practically impossible," says commander of the ground forces Syrskyi. He furthermore confirmed that US cluster munitions had now arrived in Ukraine and would be ready to use within days, reports BBC News.
Arresting Russia’s president, Vladimir Putin, would amount to a declaration of war on Russia, the South African president, Cyril Ramaphosa, wrote in court papers released on Tuesday as the country wrangles over hosting the Russian leader. South Africa’s diplomatic dilemma is playing out in court, where the leading opposition party, the Democratic Alliance (DA), is trying to force the government’s hand and ensure the Kremlin leader is held and handed over to the ICC if he steps foot in the country.
On debris of drone attacked Mykolaiv last night, found inscription "made in Ireland". Head of the President's Office Andriy Yermak published a photo of the engine carburetor from an enemy Shahed-136/131 attack drone that attacked Mykolaiv.
The CEO of Danone Russia, after it was effectively nationalized by the state, is now the deputy prime minister of Chechnya - Minister of Agriculture of the republic Yakub Zakriev - Who is also Kadyrov's nephew.
The EU hosted Latin American and Caribbean leaders on Monday hoping to soothe ties strained by deep divisions over trade and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The 33 nations of Latin America and the Caribbean have no agreed position on the Ukraine war, and some want to protect ties with Russia or seek a compromise peace deal—Brazil under Lula has proclaimed itself “neutral” in Russia’s war against Ukraine, and he has argued that Kyiv and Moscow share responsibility for the conflict.
The EU and the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC) met for a second day on Tuesday, diplomats were struggling to agree the language of a final communique, according to AFP. Diplomats from Nicaragua, Cuba and Venezuela, among others, were opposed to agreeing a text holding Moscow responsible for the conflict. Other leaders from the region were ready to sign up in support of Ukraine’s sovereignty, but put more emphasis on the need for a negotiated peace, rather than a victory for Kyiv, in their public declaration.
Ammunition production, F-16 training, counter-offensive progress discussed at Ramstein meeting. At the 14th Ukraine Defense Contact Group meeting on July 18, the training of Ukrainian pilots on F-16 fighters and Ukraine's acute need for ammunition were the main topics of discussion.
The EU will propose a dedicated fund to keep Ukraine’s military stocked for the next four years at a cost of up to €20 billion, according to five diplomats familiar with the plan. The proposal would not involve the EU directly paying for Ukraine’s weapons. Instead, Brussels would help countries cover their own costs of purchasing and donating items such as ammunition, missiles and tanks. It also would help pay to train Ukrainian soldiers.
Benelux to send M113 infantry vehicles to Ukraine. The defense ministers of Belgium, the Netherlands, and Luxembourg announced in a joint statement on July 18 that their countries will soon send Ukraine refurbished M113 armored vehicles.
A man apprehended by North Korea after crossing into the country is an American soldier, officials said. The service member is the first known American to be held in North Korean custody since Bruce Byron Lowrance was detained for a month after illegally entering the country from China in 2018.
Gyunduz Mamedov: Another victory on the legal front. ECHR-CEDH rejected Russiaʼs lawsuit against Ukraine. Let me remind you that in it Russia claimed that Ukraine was allegedly responsible for killings, abductions, forced relocations, interference with the right to vote, restrictions on the use of the Russian language, and attacks on Russian embassies and consulates, cutting off water to Crimea and the MH17 catastrophe.
International reactions to Russia pulling out of Grain Deal
Facts about the Black Sea Grain Initiative, VOA
What is the grain deal? The United Nations and Turkey brokered the deal to allow grain to be shipped from Ukraine, despite Russia’s ongoing war in that country. Much of the exported grain was shipped to impoverished countries in Africa, the Middle East and Asia. The deal also allowed for Russia to ship food and fertilizer throughout the world despite Western sanctions on Moscow.
When did the agreement begin? The nearly year-old deal was reached in July 2022 and was meant to be extended every four months.
How many countries does it affect? The U.N. said that since exports from the pact began in August 2022, 32.9 metric tons of food commodities have been exported to 45 countries.
Can Ukraine send more grain through Europe? Ukraine has been sending large amounts of grain through eastern European countries since the conflict began; however, these routes — both land and river — handle lower amounts compared to sea shipments. Ukraine’s shipments through Europe have also prompted anger from some European countries that say the shipments have undercut local supplies. As a result, five EU countries — Bulgaria, Hungary, Poland, Romania and Slovakia — have banned domestic sales of some Ukrainian grains.
What does the deal’s end mean for the World Food Program? The U.N. agency says the grain initiative has allowed it to ship more than 725,200 tons of grain to relieve hunger around the world, including to Afghanistan, Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, Sudan and Yemen.
Zelensky, Kuleba on grain deal collapse: Russian actions are 'blackmail.' Speaking on U.S. television on July 17, FM Kuleba said that "Russia is using hunger as an instrument to blackmail the world." President Zelenskyy similarly referred to Russia's decision to refuse to sign the extension of the Black Sea Grain Deal as "blackmail" in his evening address.
Blinken: Russia 'weaponizing food'; US to help Ukraine with exports after grain deal collapse. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said that Washington is looking for ways to help Ukraine export grain and other food products following Russia's announcement on July 17 that it is pulling out of the Black Sea Grain Initiative.
David Miliband, president and CEO of the International Rescue Committee and a former British foreign secretary, condemned Russia’s withdrawal from the Black Sea grain initiative, saying the "expiration of the deal risks “holding global food security at ransom”.
Guterres: Russia's pull-out of grain deal 'will strike a blow to people in need everywhere.' "Today’s decision by the Russian Federation will strike a blow to people in need everywhere," UN Secretary-General António Guterres said.
Russia evades sanctions via Georgia
Sanctioned electronic goods appear in Georgian re-export stats. A study by RadioFreeEurope/RadioLiberty’s Georgian Service has shown some 38 electrical goods, currently sanctioned by the EU and the UK and actively used by Russia in its war against Ukraine appear in the Geostat100 annual report.
The list includes aeronautical and space navigation instruments, radio navigation equipment, etc.
Geostat100 report says that all of the mentioned products are only being re-exported from Georgia to Armenia, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, United Arab Emirates, and Uzbekistan, but not to Russia.
Exclusive: Belarus abducts thousands of Ukrainian children—The Telegraph
By Sophia Yan ; Verity Bowman and Nataliya Vasilyeva, July 17, 2023
Thousands of Ukrainian children have been forcibly deported to Belarus in an alleged war crime that could implicate president Alexander Lukashenko.
Some 2,150 Ukrainian children as young as six are estimated to have been taken to at least four camps in Belarus since September 2022, with the number expected to reach 3,000 by autumn this year. Some are alleged to have been given military training.
Evidence linking these crimes to Mr Lukashenko and other Belarusian officials has been submitted to the International Criminal Court (ICC), The Telegraph can reveal.
“We want to show the world that such activity [being] organised precisely by Lukashenko is a war crime,” said Pavel Latushka, head of the opposition National Anti-Crisis Management, which submitted the accusations.
“In our opinion, [he] is the main [individual] responsible for the forcible displacement of these children to Belarus … he directly gave instructions on organising the financing of these processes.” [continue]
German foreign minister: Deported children belong to their parents. German FM Baerbock urged UN countries at the UN Security Council meeting on July 18 to join forces to return children kidnapped by Russia to their parents in Ukraine.
Belarus school camp video posted yesterday. The video, according to The Telegraph, was filmed at Dubrava sanatorium in Belarus.
Decode39: Italy to draft a new natsec strategy
Last week, when Italy’s Supreme Defence Council gathered to debrief the NATO Vilnius Summit, the members decided it would draw up a national security strategy – which the country needs to update, as security challenges become increasingly multi-dimensional and overlap with non-military domains.
Council members “reiterated that, in the current and future international scenario, defence and security must be considered a common goal” for Italian institutions, which should operate “on a national security strategy, [to be] prepared by the Government and approved by Parliament.”
Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine and the ensuing knock-on effects (including the weaponization of gas supplies) jolted sleepy, NATO-reliant European countries into strategic overhauls. Italy, which has been ramping up its securitarian efforts in fields such as the economy and cyberspace, has decided to update its guidelines.