Jul 20: E-Stories

Day 511: Odesa Staryi Krym Dnipro Bakhmut Milley BRICS Eire Georgia Arestova POL Israel US G20 Grain USelexfraud heat Kyrgyzstan Latvia A&P Buziashvili KyivIndie Naiev Kuleba GerashchenkoPutin

Catching up…

EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.

In Staryi Krym, Islâm Terek district of temporarily occupied Crimea, an ammo depot and training ground was hit. About 2000 residents are being evacuated. The highway between Sevastopol and the Kerch bridge is closed right now.

This is the second night of Russian strikes on Ukraine‘s southern Odesa region, the local governor said early Wednesday, since Moscow pulled out of a grain export deal. Russian forces launched Kh-22 and Onyx missiles targeted infrastructure of the Odesa region, injuring one resident, the Operational Command "South" reported on July 19.

Stories we’re following…

During the night Jul 18-19, the Russians unleashed a massive attack, reports Avdeeva.

Vitaliy Kim, governor of Mykolaiv, reports that after a Russian attack, “recreational infrastructure facilities in a coastal zone were destroyed and set on fire. Detailed information is being clarified. Two people were injured, one of them was hospitalised.”

Russians destroyed 60,000 t of grain in Chornomorsk port. On the night of July 19, about 60,000 tonnes of grain were destroyed in the Chornomorsk port as a result of Russian shelling of the port infrastructure involved in the grain initiative.

Evening round-up: During the day, Russian troops launched 66 air strikes and carried out about 30 attacks from multiple launch rocket systems. 19 clashes took place in the Kupyansky, Limansky, Bakhmutsky, Avdeevsky and Maryinsky directions. The Armed Forces of Ukraine repelled Russian attacks in the areas of Bogdanovka and Nevelskoye.

Defense forces repel enemy attacks in Avdiyivka, Bakhmut directions. Nineteen combat engagements took place in Kupyansk, Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiyivka, and Maryinka directions during the day.

Tarnavskyi: Defense forces have success, gain foothold in Tavria direction. The Ukrainian troops gain a foothold on the achieved frontiers in Tavria direction.

The Ukrainian military advanced more than one kilometer along the front line in the Melitopol direction, Valeriy Shershen, a representative of the press center of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Tauride direction, said.

UK Defense Ministry: Fighting escalates at lower Dnipro River, presents Russia with dilemma of whether to redeploy troops from embattled Zaporizhzhia Oblast, the U.K. Defense Ministry said on July 19. "Russia faces a dilemma in deciding whether to respond to these threats by strengthening its Dnipro Group of Forces at the expense of the stretched units facing the Ukrainian counteroffensive in Zaporizhzhia Oblast," the report said.

"In the Bakhmut direction, Ukrainian troops are conducting offensive actions north and south of the city of Bakhmut. Also during hostilities, Russians were forced to retreat from their positions northeast of Orikhovo-Vasylivka," Spokesman of the General Staff Andriy Kovalev said.

The Weather Clock is Ticking for Ukraine’s Counteroffensive. For now, summer skies and dry ground are facilitating the advance of Ukraine’s new Western-equipped mechanized brigades. But in four months or so, this will begin to change.

The rasputitsa — the muddy season — will turn fields and unpaved roads into quagmires. Armored vehicles – like the 70-ton Abrams tanks the US will be sending to Ukraine — and the all-important supply trucks will be confined to paved roads where they can be blocked or ambushed. Winter frost may make the fields passable for vehicles, but it will sap the mobility and stamina of attackers bereft of warm shelter. And then will come the spring mud, before summer begins the cycle again.

General Serhiy Naiev, commander of the Joint Forces, about a possible attack by Wagner from Belarus:

"We know that mercenaries of the "Wagner" PMC have been arriving on the territory of Belarus recently. But we are already reacting and creating such conditions that the state border of Ukraine is completely impassable for enemy forces. In particular, in Chernihiv Oblast, more than 40 km of anti-tank ditches were dug in just one direction. More than 30,000 all kinds of mine traps were created for enemy forces.

If they try to step on Ukrainian soil with their dirty boots, death will await them. We will additionally strengthen sections of the state border with non-explosive and explosive barriers, which will be a surprise for the enemy."

Journalists counted about 500 pieces of equipment near a military camp in Belarus, where Wagner PMC fighters are believed to be stationed. The Belarusian service of Radio Liberty analyzed satellite images of the camp on the territory of a military unit in the Mogilev region near the town of Osipovichi.

The chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff of the US Mark Milley said: "The Ukrainian counteroffensive is far from a failure, despite the fact that it is happening more slowly than expected. Ukraine has a significant amount of combat power that has not yet been deployed,"

Defense Ministry: Ukraine regains initiative near Kupiansk, continues offensive along southern front. Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar said on Telegram on July 18 that "the enemy offensive in the Kupiansk direction is currently unsuccessful." The area is the location of heavy troop build-up by Russia. This area of combat will be hot for some time to come: the Russians have amassed close to 100K troops in this part of the front.

It was announced that Putin would not attend the summit in South Africa in August “by mutual agreement” with the hosts. Russian media sources including RIA and Interfax are reporting that Putin will still participate in the Brics summit, but via videoconferencing. Interfax quotes Kremlin spokesperson stressing this will be a “full-fledged participation.” On Tuesday, South Africa’s president, Cyril Ramaphosa, had asked permission from the international criminal court (ICC) not to arrest Putin, because to do so would amount to a declaration of war, according to a local court submission. Foreign minister Sergei Lavrov will now appear in person at the event, unlike the “full-fledged participation” of the president.

A high-ranking commander of the 2nd separate motorized rifle brigade of the so called LPR, Denis Ivanov, was killed near Luhansk. There is some unclarity about how it happened (kamikaze drone on his car or a missile strike in Luhansk), but his death is reported by RU sources.

The Russian Orthodox priest blessing tanks.

Shmyhal: Ukraine to reconstruct Kakhovka dam and power plant. The Ukrainian government has approved a resolution to start a reconstruction project of the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant, according to Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal on July 18. Shmyhal explained that the project is intended to take place in two stages, lasting two years.

Reuters repots that Ukraine is setting up a temporary shipping route to maintain grain shipments after Russia quit the Black Sea grain deal, Kyiv said in an official letter on Wednesday.

There are several vessels in the Black Sea heading towards the Ukrainian port of Izmail. BILD military observer Yulian Röpke writes about this against the backdrop of a statement by the Russian Ministry of Defense, which actually declared all ships heading to Ukraine along the Black Sea as military targets.

Putin has set out his conditions for Russia to return into "the grain deal." He said that Russian grain and fertilizers would have to be un-sanctioned, Russian banks reconnected to SWIFT and supplies of spare parts for agricultural machinery resumed.

Croatia offers railways, ports to export Ukrainian grain. Croatia offered its rail network and ports on the Adriatic Sea as an alternative export route for Ukrainian grain during a session at the U.N. General Assembly on July 18.

DW: The Russian Defense Ministry: “From July 20, all ships sailing in the Black Sea to Ukrainian ports will be considered as potential carriers of military cargo.” They noted that the countries under whose flags these ships sail will be considered "involved in the conflict on the side of Kyiv."

Reuters has spoken to Kees Huizinga, a farmer in Ukraine, who fears for his livelihood with the ending of the Black Sea grain export deal. He moved from his native Netherlands to farm in central Ukraine in 2003, said his finances, already squeezed by Russia’s invasion last year, appear catastrophic. “We have some reserves so we can survive for a month or so, but if we can’t sell it’s going to be a disaster,” he said at his farm in the rolling hills of the Cherkasy region in central Ukraine. He grows seven major crops including wheat and sunflowers, and estimates war-related disruption cost his business between $3m and $6m in 2022, and another $6m this year.

Ireland to provide $5.6 million in humanitarian aid. Irish PM Leo Varadkar announced 5 million euros ($5.6 million dollars) in humanitarian aid during his state visit to Kyiv on July 19. Varadkar stated that 2 million euros ($2.24 million) will be allocated to the United Nations Humanitarian Fund, and 3 million euros ($3.36 million) will be spent in Ukraine by the Red Cross to help the ongoing emergency response and humanitarian crisis following the destruction of the Kakhovka dam.

FT: Saudi Arabia, Turkey seek to negotiate return of abducted Ukrainian children. Saudi Arabia and Turkey are trying to broker a deal to repatriate Ukrainian children abducted and forcibly deported to Russia, the Financial Times (FT) reported on July 18, citing four undisclosed sources.

Yermak: Russian drones still have Western-made parts, new sanctions needed. A Russian drone shot down over Mykolaiv last night was made with parts from Western countries, Ukraine's Presidential Office head Andrii Yermak said on July 18. He has criticised the west for not tightening loopholes in sanctions which are allowing Russia to re-stock its military supplies.

Russian assets: Latvia freezes 73 million euros (81 million dollars) due to EU sanctions. Six individuals identified that are directly subject to EU sanctions against Russia and Belarus, as well as indirect targeting of 34 legal entities.

Ukrainian judge Lyudmyla Arestova has a Russian passport and frequently visited occupied Crimea between 2018 and January 2022, according to Schemes, an investigative project of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty. Arestova is currently a judge with the Donetsk District Administrative Court, which has been lately based in Dnipro. Donetsk has been occupied by Russia since 2014. [continue]

Poland transfers forces to eastern border as Wagner convoys enter Belarus. Two Polish brigades have been transferred from the west of the country to locations near the border with Belarus, Polish defense minister Mariusz Błaszczak said on July 18.

Reuters: U.S. to announce $1.3 billion more in military aid for Ukraine. The U.S. will announce a new pledge to deliver $1.3 billion worth of military aid for Ukraine in the coming days, Reuters reported on July 18, citing two unnamed U.S. officials.

The United States may soon impose secondary sanctions on Kyrgyzstan for helping Russia procure sensitive technologies for its war effort in Ukraine, The Washington Post reported Wednesday, citing two anonymous U.S. officials familiar with the matter.

G20 meeting ends without joint statement over disagreement on Ukraine. The two-day meeting of the Group of Twenty (G20) representatives ends without a joint communiqué as the participants could not agree on the issue of the Russia's all-out war against Ukraine, Reuters reported on July 18.

Michigan announced felony charges against 16 people in connection with a false elector scheme to overturn Donald Trump’s election loss in 2020. Each of the 16 defendants has been charged with eight felony counts, including forgery and conspiracy to commit forgery. Those charged include Meshawn Maddock, a Trump ally and the co-chair of the Michigan Republican Party at the time.

This is a part of the bigger campaign that the Georgian government has been pushing for long -- to attack anyone who exposes their disinformation and wrongdoings, and talks about how Georgia has distanced itself from the long aspired Euro-Atlantic family and become closer to Russia.

Together with various organisations and media representatives, I have been attacked by the Georgian (as well as Russian) government-owned media and other proxies with defamation and lies. As election year approaches in Georgia, the attacks are getting worse.

Before, they were claiming that Ukraine, the West (+NATO, EU) and the Western organisations are attempting to drag Georgia in Russia's war in Ukraine. Or that the West is organising anti-government protests in Georgia. Basically, echoing all the Russian disinfo narratives.

Now they invented a global network and claim that the network is "lobbing against the country" (yes, they refer to themselves [the ruling party] as "the country") and is attempting to organise a revolution in Georgia. This is another level attack, usually happening in Russia.

2024 Parliamentary elections are crucial for Georgia as the results will either push the country away from the Euro-Atlantic family for many years and make it Russian influence sphere or Georgia will manage to make a fresh start on it's way towards NATO and EU.

BBC World Service: I’m melting…

Programming note…

The Ukrainian government has identified over 19,500 Ukrainian children who have been forcibly deported to Russia. The Kyiv Independent's War Crimes Investigation Unit established the names of Russian-controlled officials who took part in the abduction and followed the paths of families who risked their lives to bring their children back.

Signing off for the day…