Jul 21 Buonasera Mag
Day 148: Mykolaiv, Sloviansk, Bakhmut, RU arms Energoatom, Burns statements, Lukashenko, gold, sanctions, Russian teachers, Draghi, Russian agitprop, the Geobbels method, China, Macron
Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
Stories we’re following…
Mykolaiv Mayor Sienkevych reported that powerful explosions were heard in Mykolaiv overnight on July 21. The air raid siren reportedly sounded around 3:00 a.m.
ISW: Russian offensive will likely conclude without seizure of Sloviansk, Bakhmut. The ISW said Russian forces may achieve limited territorial gains in Donbas northeast of the E40 highway, but will likely fail to take more major populated areas like Sloviansk and Bakhmut.
Ukraine's state nuclear energy company Energoatom said that Russians brought at least 14 heavy military equipment pieces with ammunition, weapons, and explosives into the plant.
Lukashenko said that Russia, Ukraine and the West must agree to stop the war in order to avoid the “abyss of nuclear war” and insisted that Ukraine accept Russia’s demands.
According to the WSJ, Ukraine’s military is having trouble getting western weapons operational at the frontlines, citing a lack of commonalities across weapons.
Russia has used up to 60% of its missile stock since Feb. 24. According to Ukraine's Defense Ministry Intelligence Directorate, Russia most often used Kalibr, Kh-101, and Kh-555 cruise missiles, and also the Iskander short-range ballistic missile systems.
CIA Director William Burns gave an estimate of #Russian combat casualties in the war in Ukraine: "The latest estimates from the U.S. intelligence community are in the neighborhood of 15,000 dead and about three times as many wounded."
The U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) announced on July 19 that the fund is intended to “bolster Ukrainian agricultural exports” and protect against the global food security crisis.
Ukrainian Agriculture Minister Mykola Solsky said that the grain exports may be blocked due to Syria purchasing Ukrainian grain stolen by Russia in the occupied territories.
Russia might face first Hague war crime case this year. According to Bloomberg's unnamed sources, the International Criminal Court aims to move forward with a case over Russian war crimes in Ukraine closer to winter.
Russian Nord Stream 1 gas pipeline has restarted with gas flowing from Russia to Germany after maintenance, according to data viewed this morning. “It’s working,” a Nord Stream spokesperson said, without specifying the amount of gas being delivered.
EU to provide Ukraine with new 500 million euros military assistance. EU foreign affairs chief Josep Borrell said that with the allocation of the fifth tranche "to further support Ukraine‘s Armed Forces," the EU remains “focused and steadfast” in its support for Ukraine.
Britain will send scores of artillery guns and more than 1,600 anti-tank weapons to Ukraine in the latest supply of western arms to help bolster its defence against Russia, the UK defence secretary, Ben Wallace, said on Thursday.
Lavrov said on Thursday that Russia would consider a Hungarian request to increase gas purchases from Russia.
Russia threatens Wikipedia for hosting information about Ukraine invasion. Russian state communications regulator Roskomnadzor said links to Wikipedia about Russia's war in Ukraine would have a disclaimer telling users the Wikimedia Foundation violated Russian law.
Defence One, Russia is ‘About to Run Out of Steam,’ MI6 Chief Says
America’s internal division is reducing its international influence, China is not 10 feet tall, Iran doesn’t really want a nuclear deal, and Russia is “about to run out of steam” in Ukraine, said Britain’s spy chief in a rare and frank interview about global threats and the state of Western intelligence services.
WaPo, Russia sending teachers to Ukraine to control what students learn
Russia has promised hundreds of teachers big money to go to occupied Ukraine and give students there a “corrected” education — with Russia’s take on Ukraine’s history — in the coming school year.
For some teachers in Chuvashia, a republic about 400 miles east of Moscow, the offer seemed tempting. The average monthly salary in the region is around $550, but the prospective salary posted by a school director on a Chuvashia teachers’ chat group was for more than $2,900 a month.
How do you define what this is?
Natalia Antonova: “This Russian couple used to have a son. They believe he died fighting fascism. They used their compensation money to buy a substandard Russian car they now drive to a sad-looking rural cemetery. Russian TV happy to film it all. This is a genre of horror that’s hard to define.”
Rachok, How does an occupation look like on an everyday level? A short explainer.
A woman from Tokmak (Zaporizhzhia oblast) returns home and sees that her door lock is broken. Inside her apartment, there is a woman from russia who tells the owner: “My husband, a ru military man, and I live here from now on. Get lost.”
An Ukrainian woman from Tokmak was furious and threw the occupier’s wife out of her house with bare hands and many obscenities. Now though this woman has to hide and try to flee the occupied territory as she’s in danger for standing up to the occupiers.
A man from Melitopol who still has family there says that his relatives spend a few days every week in his house, so it doesn’t look abandoned and the russians don’t take the house away and put their own people there.
A colleague who fled the occupied east says that some ru military commander and his wife took her apartment. When her mother returned to the apartment to pick up some clothes and children toys, the commander’s wife met her wearing my colleague’s pajama’s and bathrobe…
The mother almost spit on it and decided not to take anything that was touched by the occupiers, who took even people’s underwear…
Occupation, war destroy your life on this very basic level. Your privacy is violated, your homes taken away, you cease to exist. The occupiers don’t give a damn if you live or die.
Geopolitical Monitor, The ‘Goebbels Method’: RIA Novosti as Window into Russian Propaganda
RIA Novosti is now known as the Russian regime’s ally. On February 26th, at 8 AM Moscow time, it published a pre-written article to mark the end of the special operation in Ukraine. But due to Russian defeats in key areas on the Eastern borders, the article was deleted from the official website. Nevertheless, it is still available thanks to the WBM online archives.
Decode39, How Draghi’s fall impacts Italy’s support for Ukraine
Draghi’s farewell might cost Ukraine. On Thursday, Prime Minister Mario Draghi officially resigned. He’ll stay on in a caretaking capacity until the elections in autumn. Meanwhile, his government might not be able to approve a slate of crucially important measures, including military and economic support for Ukraine.
Byline Times, How Russia’s western propagandists are undermining justice for war crime victims
These self-proclaimed journalists are playing a crucial role in Russia’s disinformation war and just what responsibility they have for the potential war crimes they help deny and cast doubt on is a question now being raised by politicians and legal experts.
“It’s a huge problem, says Natalia Krapiva, a former prosecutor and now tech-legal counsel for civil rights group Access Now. “It really undermines the trust in the investigative efforts and evidence collection.
The Times, China’s new spy army has invaded — and we’re not fighting back
Chinese cyberspies from a group nicknamed “Turbine Panda” because of their targeting of aero-engine secrets have been indicted in absentia by the US justice department, while a top Chinese agent named Xu Yanjun was jailed last year after an FBI sting operation lured him to Belgium, ostensibly to meet a mole at the American company GE Aviation. According to Ken McCallum, the head of MI5, Xu’s “prolific” network has also been active in Britain. “MI5 worked with those being targeted in the UK…”
Moutet, The awkward truth is that Macron is already drowning
You can tell whenever Emmanuel Macron is flailing, because on the Instagram account of the Élysée official photographer a new set of pictures crops up starring Le Président in the guise he wants to project, like a limited edition uber-Ken doll. Some time during the second month of the war in Ukraine, for instance, we got Zelensky-Macron: unshaven, in a special forces t-shirt and a hoodie, intensely staring at what were visibly meant to be momentous documents.
For Olga…my buddy
Thanks for reading…
Mo