Jul 21: E-Stories
Day 512: Mykolaiv Odesa Sumy Chernihiv Kherson Dnipropetrovsk Mariupol RUdom BEL Occupation Georgia Kyrgyzstan USOil Trump POL Zadorina A&P UKDef Girkin Avdeeva Bildt AP Zelensky
Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
Question: “Who hit the Kerch Bridge?” Zelensky: “I don’t know.”
Stories we’re following…
Suspilne, Ukraine's state broadcaster, report on the overnight news from Ukraine which saw the death of 3 people and 27 injured:
At night, the Russian Federation launched over Ukraine seven Onyx cruise missiles, four Kh-22 cruise missiles, three Kalibr cruise missiles, five Iskander-K cruise missiles and 19 Shahed drones. Air defence forces shot down two Kalibrs, three Iskanders and 13 drones.
Russian attacks on residential buildings in Mykolaiv, Odesa, Sumy, Chernihiv, Kherson and Dnipropetrovsk. Ukrainian air defence shot down 5 of the 19 missiles across its territory.
Odesa’s governor has reported that the Chinese consulate in the city was damaged in the overnight strike by Russia.
Syrskyi: Russian forces in Bakhmut 'semi-encircled'. Russian forces in Bakhmut have been semi-encircled as Ukraine created conditions to retake the city, Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi told the BBC on July 20.
General Staff: Russia has lost 240,010 troops in Ukraine. The General Staff of Ukraine's Armed Forces reported on July 20 that Russia had lost 240,010 troops in Ukraine since the beginning of its full-scale invasion on Feb. 24 last year. This number includes 530 casualties Russian forces suffered just over the past day. (Monique: it is very difficult to verify these numbers. They are, however, under estimates, given the information we are gathering through regional news in Russia.
One of the founders of the Angry Patriot Club, war criminal Igor Ivanovich Strelkov (Girkin) has been hyper talkative on his Telegram channel, pointing out the deficiencies of the Russian army.
It’s incredible he hasn’t been killed yet, given that Russian authorities have opened a criminal case against Colonel of GRU Vladimir Kvachkov, a close Girkin ally and a member of the "Angry Patriots Club", accusing him of discrediting the Russian Armed Forces. This raises many questions, which I won’t get into now.
This is his take on the way the war will unfold in the future:
“Since everyone is probably waiting for my comment - I'm posting. Although, of course, there has been nothing to comment on here for a long time - I commented on everything that happened many months (and even years) ago.
The enemy will receive every month more and more powerful long-range modern weapon systems. Gradually and in quantities not too large - just enough so that the war lasts as long as possible, was as exhausting as possible and ended not at all with a "military victory of independent Ukraine" (its masters do not need that), but with the collapse of the Russian Federation due to internal problems.
And to accomplish this, "the frog has to be boiled slowly" (although the heat will be turned up every month). There will be new strikes, terrorist attacks, sabotage. There will be more and more of them.
Our country is big. And in order to "catch up with the victim" along the Milosevic-Gaddafi-Saddam route before the finish line - oh, a lot of time is required...”
ISW: The Kremlin is likely attempting to increase its control over Russian social media outlets to set conditions for the 2024 Russian presidential elections. Russian opposition outlet Meduza reported that Russian Presidential Administration First Deputy Head Sergey Kiriyenko is brokering a deal to purchase the Russian division of media giant Yandex on behalf of investors heavily affiliated with billionaire Yuri Kovalchuk, a close Kiriyenko ally and reported personal banker to Russian President Vladimir Putin. A Russian insider source claimed that Telegram channels affiliated with Kiriyenko accused RT editor in chief and Russian propagandist Margarita Simonyan of spreading fake information to try to take control over Telegram. The recent detention of the Russian Deputy Minister of Digital Development by the FSB is part of a broader Russian federal effort to take more direct control over Russian social media.
Since the beginning of 2023, Russian military courts are prosecuting a record number of criminal cases related to unauthorized abandonment of military service (Article 337 of the Criminal Code). According to the websites of the garrison and district military courts, which Mediazona studied, 2,076 cases were registered in the first half of 2023, which is twice as many as in the entire previous year of 2022 and three times more than in pre-war 2021. It is noted that the main proportion of the defendants were mobilized. By June, there were 100 sentences a week under Article 337 of the Criminal Code.
The lawfulness of the UK sanctions regime set up in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine faced its biggest legal test on July 20, when a Soviet-era oligarch and ally of Roman Abramovich seeks a court order to release his assets, which include two private jets. The case being brought by Eugene Shvidler, a billionaire oil businessman, follows similar challenges by oligarchs now entering the courts in Europe where a separate but similar sanction regime operates.
Russia said on Thursday it was imposing restrictions on British diplomats, requiring them to give five days’ notice of any plans to travel beyond a 120-km (75-mile) radius, due to what it called London’s “hostile actions”.
“Such a document [notification procedure] should contain information about the timing, purpose, type of trip, planned business contacts, accompanying persons, type of transport, places of visit and accommodation, as well as the route of the trip,” the ministry said.
Zelensky: Military to strengthen defenses of ports after Odesa strikes. President Volodymyr Zelensky said on July 19 that the military has been instructed to strengthen the security of ports following the strikes against Odesa and elsewhere. With reference to ships sailing in the Black Sea, Ukraine’s ministry of defence issued this statement on Thursday afternoon, saying:
By openly threatening civilian ships transporting food from Ukrainian ports, launching missile attacks and drone attacks on civilian infrastructure in peaceful cities, deliberately creating a military threat on trade routes, the Kremlin has turned the Black Sea into a danger zone, primarily for Russian ships and ships heading in the waters of the Black Sea in the direction of seaports of the Russian Federation and Ukrainian seaports located on the territory of Ukraine temporarily occupied by Russia. The responsibility for all risks lies entirely with the Russian leadership.
The fate of the cruiser “Moskva” proves that the defence forces of Ukraine have the necessary means to repel Russian aggression at sea.
The ministry of defence of Ukraine warns that from 00:00 on 21 July, 2023, all vessels heading in the waters of the Black Sea in the direction of seaports of the Russian Federation and Ukrainian seaports located on the territory of Ukraine temporarily occupied by Russia may be considered by Ukraine as such. carrying military cargo with all the associated risks.
The US warned that Russia may attack civilian ships on the Black Sea and then blame Ukrainian forces. Russia says all ships travelling to Ukrainian ports on Black Sea will be considered carriers of military equipment from Thursday.
Germany is working with allies to ensure that Ukrainian grain is not left to rot in silos after Russia pulled out of an export deal, and will intensify work on getting the grain out by rail, foreign minister Annalena Baerbock said on Thursday.
“Hundreds of thousands of people, not to say millions, urgently need the grain from Ukraine, which is why we are working with all our international partners so that the grain in Ukraine does not rot in silos in the next few weeks, but reaches the people of the world who urgently need it,” Reuters report Baerbock said.
Reuters: 5 European countries to ask for extended EU ban on Ukrainian grain. Five Central European countries will jointly ask the EU on July 19 to prolong the ban on Ukrainian agricultural imports beyond Sep. 15, Reuters reported.
The Telegraph: Children are not the only ones being abducted by Russia.
Elderly and vulnerable Ukrainians were taken into Russian territory, stripped of their citizenship, forced to give blood and left in agony from botched medical procedures, a Telegraph investigation has found. The senior citizens were placed in the Russian care system after Vladimir Putin’s forces occupied their hometowns and villages in the early stages of the war. Those who managed to escape back to Ukraine have told how they were “treated with disdain” and abused. [continue]
In Ukraine, since the start of the full-scale Russian invasion, 664 cultural heritage sites have been damaged or completely destroyed. Such data as of June 25 were reported by the Deputy Minister of Culture of Ukraine Ekaterina Chueva. According to her, this list does not include objects that are located in the territories occupied by the Russian Federation, as well as libraries or other institutions that were located in modern buildings.
The Southern District Military Court in Rostov-on-Don is considering a criminal case against five residents of Melitopol, accused of organizing a "terrorist underground" in the occupied city of Zaporozhye region. The case went to court in mid-April 2023. The BBC Russian Service spoke in detail about it.
The EU has announced it will provide up to €5bn a year for the next four years for Ukraine‘s defence needs via the means of a “dedicated section” under the European Peace facility. The EU’s foreign policy chief, Josep Borrell, said:
It’s still the same tool, the European Peace facility, which has been working very well and we will continue using it but with a dedicated chapter inside it, with a specific funding which can be estimated on the figures I mentioned.
A EU Commission proposal to use frozen public Russian assets to help finance Ukraine will not be published until September, a spokesman has said.
A proposal was initially expected before August. A spokesperson said:
Discussions between member states have been going well. The last meeting of the council working party on this matter was on July 12 and the next one will take place in September. Intensive work is taking place in the G7 context and we aim to have a G7 statement before the summer break. A legal proposal we aim to have after the summer break.”
EU adopts new sanctions against Iran to prevent export of drone components. The sanctions prohibit the export of components to Iran which are commonly used in the construction of attack drones. Six Iranians involved in supporting the Russian military are subject to an asset freeze and travel restrictions. The sanctions come after months of reports from the Ukrainian authorities that the Iranian-made Russian attack drones contain Western parts.
Lithuania launches crowdfunding campaign to purchase 500 drones for Ukraine. A new crowdfunding campaign Dronų giesmės (Drone Songs) was launched in Lithuania to collect 300,000 euros to purchase 500 FPV kamikaze drones, according to Delfi news website.
Australia imposed sanctions against 35 organizations from the Russian Federation, Yermak reports. "The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the country reported that it is about organizations in the fields of defense technology and energy sectors. Also, 10 individuals were sanctioned, including Russian ministers and high-ranking officials, as well as military personnel from Belarus."
Britain has added individuals and groups with links to Russia’s Wagner Group and operating in Central African Republic and Mali to its sanctions list. Reuters reports that in its statement on Thursday, Britain named Vitalii Viktorovitch Perfilev as head of the Wagner Group in the CAR and said he would be subject to an asset freeze and travel ban. Reuters also reports that Russia’s foreign ministry has summoned the British interim charge d’affaires in Moscow.
Belgium removed Georgia from the list of safe countries. Georgia is currently in the international spotlight for democratic backsliding. This decision makes the prospects of a visa-free regime with the EU unclear.
Washington Post: Kyrgyzstan supplying military parts to Russia, US could respond with sanctions. Companies in Kyrgyzstan are supplying Russia with sanctioned equipment and electronics, bypassing Western sanctions, the Washington Post reported on July 19.
Carl Bildt: The return of EU enlargement
“Ukraine applied for EU membership just days after the invasion, and the EU recognized its status as a candidate in record time. What had previously been unthinkable suddenly became a strategic necessity. Following the elections to the European Parliament in June 2024, the next European Commission will be expected to make enlargement one of its top priorities,” writes Former Swedish Prime Minister Carl Bildt in his recent op-ed.
American oil field services helped Russia well into the war
Financial Times: Major American providers of oilfield services supplied Russia with millions of dollars in equipment for months after its invasion of Ukraine, helping to sustain a critical part of its economy even as Western nations launched sanctions aimed at starving the Russian war effort.
The largest – SLB, formerly Schlumberger – maintained and even slightly grew its business after others eventually departed. It announced on Friday it would stop exporting equipment there as The Associated Press prepared to publish a report on the companies’ Russian operations.
Russia imported more than 5,500 items worth more than $200 million from the top five U.S. firms in the sector — led by SLB, Baker Hughes and Halliburton — in the year following the invasion that began in February 2022. That’s according to customs data obtained by B4Ukraine and vetted by The AP. [continue]
Trump vows to make Europe pay for US military aid to Ukraine if re-elected. U.S. presidential candidate Donald Trump said on July 18 that if elected, he will ask Europe to cover the U.S. costs of restoring stockpiles of weapons sent to Ukraine.
RBC: Russian Spy network in Poland
Detained in Poland on charges of working for Russian intelligence, members of the spy network, according to Warsaw, were going to blow up a train with weapons and humanitarian aid for Ukraine, writes Gazeta Polska, citing sources. According to the newspaper, the agents were given instructions directly from Moscow, and after completing the tasks, they were rewarded in cryptocurrency, mostly in bitcoins, which were then exchanged for cash.
The Polish authorities call the network the largest in the history of the country. In total, from March to July of this year, 15 people were arrested - citizens of Belarus, Russia and Ukraine - they were charged with espionage. According to Gazeta Polska, the spy network was set up earlier this year, less than a year after the outbreak of hostilities in Ukraine.
Olga Lautman, Are Ukraine’s Spies Treading in Mossad’s Footsteps?
Ukraine’s military Main Directorate of Intelligence under Gen. Kyrylo Budanov acknowledges it has carried out a range of activities inside Russia, including assassinations. It has also been held responsible for a series of drone attacks, including one on the Kremlin in May, and acts of sabotage including on rail lines.
It seems clear that Ukraine’s intelligence service has networks inside Russia and inside the occupied territories, and is not afraid to launch audacious attacks. But the decision to kill a submarine commander is new and would suggest the Ukrainians are ruthlessly targeting enemy leaders on enemy territory, something more commonly associated with the Israeli intelligence service, Mossad.
Rzhitsky is the latest in a string of deaths, arrests, and disappearances of Russian military figures since Russia’s full-scale invasion. Shortly after the killing, The Insider reported that Russian Lieutenant General Oleg Tsokov had died in Russian-occupied Berdiansk, apparently the victim of a British-made Storm Shadow missile fired by the Ukrainian air force. He would be the most senior general to die in the war. This attack too suggests high-quality and time-sensitive intelligence is available to Ukraine’s armed forces. [continue]
Zadorina, the daughter of one of the most influential Chekists, FSB General Mikhail Shekin, was vacationing in Courchevel, Sergei Yezhov reports. He identified her whereabouts from an Instagram photo.
“See the sculpture of the glass horse? We find exactly the same. And the building in the background is exactly the same. The same balconies, roof and chimneys. Nearby is a Louis Vuitton boutique. Zadorina was in Courchevel, but she chose to hide it - out of modesty, apparently. True, the photo, albeit without a geotag, could not resist and posted it, ”the investigator explained.
Zadorina also published her photos on the background of the mountains in the telegram channel and wrote that she was trying "not to miss the ski season", since "mountains and nature charge with energy and emotions."
Her father, General Shekin, oversees the economy and procurement of the FSB, his position "opens room for corruption," Yezhov writes. The general found property worth billions of rubles.
Zadorina herself earns on state contracts with the support of the FSB. Her company Zasport received 2 billion rubles through public procurement, of which 1 billion was used by the company in 2022. In particular, Zasport supplies special clothing and footwear for the Moscow metro, and also equips the Russian Olympic team.
In addition, Zadorina is the author of patriotic T-shirts with the inscriptions “I saw your sanctions in the coffin”, “Poplar is not afraid of sanctions” and “Sanctions? Don't make my Iskanders laugh." In 2014, she held an action on Tsvetnoy Boulevard, where she exchanged these T-shirts for imported clothes.