Jul 22: Saturday Stories
Day 513: Odesa Mykolaiv Grain UASitRep Zapo Kirby USsanctions Canada RyanAir Iraq RUdisinfo CH Zaki Girkin RUdisinfo A&P Avdeeva Pichler Tchakarova Shagina Rosenberg Lviv Pittet
Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
Overnight (Jul 20-21), a Kalibr cruise missile hit an agricultural enterprise in the Odesa region. As a result of the attack, 100 tons of peas and 20 tons of barley were destroyed. This is the fourth night of Russian attacks targeting agricultural scentre
President Zelenskyy instructed Commander-in-Chief of the AF Zaluzhny, Navy Commander Neyizhpapa and Minister of Infrastructure Kubrakov to prepare a set of actions for continuation of the grain corridor. The MFA should take similar diplomatic steps.
Stories we’re following…
Ukraine to OSCE: Russia strikes ports that hold over 1 million tons of food. Russian attacks on Ukraine's Black Sea Coast are hitting ports that contain more than a million tons of food, Ukrainian representative Yevhenii Tsymbaliuk told the OSCE Permanent Council on July 20.
Russian forces continue striking Odesa today: the spokesman for Odesa Regional Military Administration, Serhiy Bratchuk, citing the Ukrainian Air Force, also reported in Telegram that supersonic anti-ship missiles Oniks had been launched towards Odesa region, urging people to stay in shelters. At the time of this writing, Odesa was on its third wave of Russian missile attacks.
Zelensky Official: “Russia killed two more children today. Russian artillery attack on the village of Druzhba, Toretska community, Donetsk region. A girl born in 2007 and a boy in 2013 were killed. Chernihiv region, Goncharivske village - hit by a rocket. Two women were killed, the rubble is being sorted out. A cultural center, a school, and residential buildings were damaged.”
A Russian ammunition depot is reportedly set on fire in Mariupol, the local resistance movement in Mariupol reports.
Defense forces repel enemy attacks in three directions, heavy battles ongoing. The Russian forces continue to focus its main efforts on Kupyansk, Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiyivka, and Maryinka directions, where 20 combat engagements took place during the day. Air defense forces destroyed two Kalibr missiles, three Iskander-K missiles, and 13 Shahed drones.
UK Defense Ministry: Russia's Black Sea blockade at risk from Ukrainian surface drones, missiles The Russian Black Sea Fleet will likely take an active role in blocking trade routes, but the blockade will be at risk from Ukrainian surface drones and cruise missiles, the U.K. Defense Ministry reported on July 20.
Russia repeated its threats to the UN: "All ships heading to Ukrainian ports are considered military targets," the Russian Deputy Representative Dmitry Polyanskiy said.
Russia has still not let the UN nuclear watchdog’s team at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in Ukraine have access to the rooftops of the occupied plant’s reactors, the agency has said as it follows up on Ukrainian accusations of foul play. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said:
[IAEA] experts have carried out additional inspections and walkdowns at Ukraine‘s Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant over the past week so far without observing any heavy military equipment, explosives or mines but they are still awaiting access to the rooftops of the reactor buildings.
Ukraine‘s Kherson region will have little or no harvest due to a shortage of water in the North Crimean and Kakhovka canals, Russian-installed governor Vladimir Saldo has warned.
Steve Rosenberg: One Russian paper today on Putin’s decision not to travel to South Africa next month: “It's the first time the ICC arrest warrant has affected the Russian leader’s plans. Will it be the last?” Plus, the Russian government paper reports on…the Spice Girls. (July 20)
Wagner Group leadership has decided to let all former prisoners who worked as mercenaries for the military cartel go home, reports Russian independent news outlet iStories. The publication studied messages between relatives of mercenaries and Wagner representatives in private chats. Many former mercenaries are currently staying in hotels in the city of Anapa, on the Black Sea, awaiting pardons.
“They took everyone to Anapa until the end of their contracts, they won’t let anyone go a day earlier. The whole Project K [the Wagner Group name for its prison recruitment program] is closed,” wrote a Wagner representative in one chat.
On Igor Streklin’s (Girkin) Telegram channel, his wife, Myroslava Renginskaya, posted a message saying that men came to the house and took Strelkov. I’m preparing a post dedicated to the events surrounding the Strelkov arrest but for now I’ll leave you with the Renginskaya’s statements:
“Today, at about 11:30, representatives of the investigative committee [major crimes unit] came to us. I was not at home at that time. Soon, according to the concierge, they dragged my husband by his arms and took him away in an unknown direction.”
“From friends, I managed to find out that my husband was charged under article 282 fo the Criminal Code of the Russian Federation (extremism). I don’t know where my husband is, he has not been in touch. At the time of his arrest, I wasn’t at home.”
UK sanctions Wagner leaders for violence across African states. The U.K. government announced on July 20 a new wave of sanctions against 13 individuals and businesses connected to the Wagner Group's activities in Mali, Central African Republic (CAR), and Sudan.
Kirby: Ukraine is using cluster munitions 'effectively.' Ukraine has started to use cluster munitions within the last week and is using them "effectively," US National Security Council Coordinator for Strategic Communications John Kirby told reporters on July 20.
New US sanctions target Russian mining corporations, suppliers helping Russia evade restrictions. The U.S. government announced a new sweeping set of sanctions on July 20, which aims to target Russia's war effort. Russian officials and industries, individuals linked to Wagner leader Yevgeny Prigozhin, and Kyrgyz companies have been sanctioned.
MFA Ukraine summons Kyrgyzstan's ambassador over circumvention of sanctions against Russia. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine has summoned the Ambassador of Kyrgyzstan to Ukraine Idris Kadyrkulov to obtain explanations regarding the information about the use of Kyrgyzstan's jurisdiction to circumvent sanctions against Russia. As noted, it was, in particular, about the supply of dual-use products and high-tech components and products that can be used for the manufacture of weapons.
Ukraine moves to nationalize Russian oligarch's bank. The National Bank of Ukraine submitted a proposal on July 20 requesting the government nationalize the bank of Ukrainian-born Russian oligarch Mikhail Fridman.
Former Russian finance minister Alexei Kudrin has been added to a US treasury list of people sanctioned, though a reasoning was not provided, the BBC reports. Kudrin has been a close ally of president Vladimir Putin throughout his career. At the end of last year, he became the highest profile government official to leave a post since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. He took up a role at technology giant Yandex advising on corporate development.
Canada, within the framework of supporting the coalition of fighters, will help Ukraine prepare the infrastructure for the F-16 airfields, hangars, gas stations and more. although Canada itself does not have F-16 fighters.
"The US may transfer F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine already this year. But we believe that the F-16 alone will not be able to turn the tide," John Kirby, National Security Council Coordinator for Strategic Communications said.
Ryanair announces plans for post-war return to Ukraine, $3 billion investment. Low cost airline Ryanair announced on July 20 its plans to return to the Ukrainian market within eight weeks Ukrainian air space reopening.
SBU detains railway employee in Dnipro over spying for Russia. The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) informed on July 20 that it detained an employee of the state railway operator Ukrzaliznytsia for helping Russia to plan air strikes against Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
The United Kingdom on Thursday lifted sanctions against the exiled former banking tycoon Oleg Tinkov. The decision was announced just days after British billionaire Richard Branson called on his government to lift the “unwarranted” sanctions imposed against Tinkov last year. Allies of jailed Kremlin critic Alexei Navalny had also previously urged London to lift sanctions against the businessman.
Chinese leader Xi Jinping declared that Beijing alone will decide how — and how quickly — it addresses climate change. Xi’s comments to top Communist Party officials, which came as U.S. climate envoy John F. Kerry wrapped up three days of talks there on Wednesday, laid bare the challenge the world faces in curbing planet-warming pollution that is fueling heat waves across three continents.
All eyes on Spain as it goes into a snap election this weekend. Opinion polls show the right-wing establishment People’s Party (PP) ahead of Spain’s center-left Socialists, who have been in power in coalition governments for the past eight years. If they win, they may not get a majority which means it will have to form a coalition government. They may have to decide if they are ready to approach the ultra-right wing Vox to form a government.
Sixty-three journalists killed during full-scale invasion of Ukraine in military operations or as a result of Russian shelling or torture. Among them, 14 died while directly performing their journalistic duties, and 9 were victims among civilians — Ministry of Culture and Information Policy of Ukraine.
Reuters: The United States uncovered information that the Iraqi banks engaged in money laundering and fraudulent transactions, some of which may have involved sanctioned individuals and raised concerns that Iran could benefit.
The United States has barred 14 Iraqi banks from conducting dollar transactions, the Wall Street Journal reported on Wednesday, citing U.S. officials.
The ban, which was imposed by the Treasury Department and the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, is part of a crackdown on the siphoning of U.S. currency to Iran, the report added.
The United States uncovered information that the Iraqi banks engaged in money laundering and fraudulent transactions, some of which may have involved sanctioned individuals and raised concerns that Iran could benefit, the newspaper said.
Maria Shagina: EIU—The EU’s trade dependence on China exposes Europe to both economic and security threats, with Germany being particularly vulnerable. Diversifying away from China in critical sectors will be the focus of the EU’s China policy in the coming years.
Egypt announced presidential pardons for two of its most prominent political prisoners: Patrick Zaki, a human rights researcher at the University of Bologna, Italy, who was jailed after publishing an article regarding the treatment of the Christian minority in Egypt, and and Mohamed El-Baqer, a human rights lawyer. Advocacy groups say tens of thousands of political prisoners have been detained during President Abdel Fatah El-Sisi’s decade in power. Zaki, who was awarded Italian citizenship two years ago, may have been released in exchange for the Italian authorities to stop requesting information about Giulio Regeni, a researcher at Cambridge University, who was found dead in Egypt under unknown circumstances.
The Trump-Russian secret channel
Jared Kushner and Russia’s ambassador to Washington discussed the possibility of setting up a secret and secure communications channel between Trump’s transition team and the Kremlin, using Russian diplomatic facilities in an apparent move to shield their pre-inauguration discussions from monitoring, according to U.S. officials briefed on intelligence reports.
Ambassador Sergey Kislyak reported to his superiors in Moscow that Kushner, son-in-law and confidant to then-President-elect Trump, made the proposal during a meeting on Dec. 1 or 2 at Trump Tower, according to intercepts of Russian communications that were reviewed by U.S. officials. Kislyak said Kushner suggested using Russian diplomatic facilities in the United States for the communications.
The meeting also was attended by Michael Flynn, Trump’s first national security adviser. [continue]
Dietmar Pichler: 15 rules of Russian disinformation
Deny it
Accuse others of what you do yourself
Demonize your victim
Practice the victim role, even if you are clearly the perpetrator
Know your target audiences
When unable to convince, confuse
Spread not just one but many lies to create as much confusion as possible
Motivate others to spread your lies
Ridiculous propaganda helps make your more subtle lies appear more legitimate
If it gets tough to deny, use whataboutism
Amplify all voices that support your narratives
Repeat your narratives as many times as possible so that your audience can parrot them
Be aware that less informed people are more vulnerable to disinformation
When your fabricated content triggers emotions, people will spread it even moreMake your audience feel special, in the sense that they are well-informed, while others are just "decadent Western sheep
Velina Tchakarova: Russia planned it carefully
Russia’s withdrawal from the Black Sea Grain Initiative has been carefully prepared in series of steps over the last few months. This is not a sudden move, this is a deliberate strategy.
As a result of recent Russian attacks on infrastructure in Odesa Oblast, 60,000 tonnes of grain were destroyed in the port of Chornomorsk (one of the three key ports for the Black Sea Grain Initiative). Odesa has also been under Russian attacks.
Russia's Defence Ministry said on Wednesday it would deem all ships travelling to Ukrainian ports to be potential carriers of military cargo and their flag countries to be parties to the conflict on the Ukrainian side. Ukraine has proposed sending grain ships via the territorial waters of nearby NATO nations but sources told g Captain that the US Navy shutdown the request to protect ships near NATO shores.
The Russian demands are clear: logistics, freight and shipment of Russian grain and fertilizers must be ensured, Russian banks reconnected to SWIFT and supplies of spare parts for agricultural machinery resumed. At its core, this move by Russia is a calculated pressure tactic aimed at the West, with the intent of obtaining approval for Rosselkhozbank's inclusion in SWIFT, thereby contravening the prevailing sanctions regime. Achieving this milestone would pave the way for the efficient freight, logistics, and shipping of Russian food commodities and fertilizers, setting a precedent for circumventing Western sanctions and injecting much-needed forex liquidity into the Russian economy.
Russia is ready to trigger Food Crisis 2.0 if necessary and the Global South will suffer the most. If Ukraine is unable to export food, the population of the poorest countries will be on the verge of survival. In addition, the global economy will suffer. The price of grain will increase and not all countries will be able to afford to buy agricultural products, which means that the price of food will increase significantly: flour, grains, meat. By manufacturing the conditions conducive for Food Crisis 2.0, Russia stands to wield significant leverage over African and Asian countries, given their heavy dependence on Russian and Ukrainian commodities. This, in turn, serves to exert additional pressure on the West to acquiesce to Russia's demands.