Jul 25: Ukrainian Intelligence: how the Kremlin disrupted the "Grain Agreement"

As published on The Main Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defence, July 25, 2023

The closed "Report" for the top Kremlin reveals exactly how the Russians disrupted the "Grain Agreement"

Published by The Main Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defence, Jul 25, 2023

A closed final Report "on the work of the Russian part of the joint coordination center during the implementation of the Initiative" was prepared for the top military and political leadership of the occupying country.

In general, the text of the document is devoted to the technologies that were used to hinder the implementation of the grain corridor and ultimately led to the final termination of the agreement.

According to the Report, the so-called "joint coordination center" saw its main task as the maximum reduction of the volume of grain exported within the framework of the Grain Agreement. In particular, the document states: "Qualitative inspection of ships was also one of the key elements of curbing the uncontrolled growth of grain exports from Ukrainian ports. At the same time, the activities of Russian inspectors were built in strict accordance with the developed methodical documents on the organization of ship inspections. According to the results of the inspections, 46 vessels were restricted from participating in the Initiative and 303 vessels were restricted in their movement for a total period of 342 days."

Measures to disrupt the Grain Agreement were divided into several stages. At the first, on the initiative of the Russian president, Russia's participation in the ZU was suspended from October 29, 2022 to November 3, 2022. According to the document, this led to a drop in grain export volumes from 4.2 million in October to 2.6 million in November. The next stage is measures to limit the admission of vessels to the Southern port, reduce the number of inspection teams (no more than two), and stop the registration of grain carriers.

These measures allowed the Russians to "effectively restrain the number of ships heading to Ukrainian ports and significantly limit the volume of food exports from Ukraine, which in general led to the impossibility of Kyiv exporting about 20 million tons of cargo." The Russians report that "the smallest amount of food exported from Ukrainian ports, 7.8 million tons, fell on the third stage of the Initiative (from March 19 to July 17, 2023).

Particular attention was paid to the disruption of grain supplies under the program of the World Food Program: "Ukrainians' attempts to use the Black Sea initiative to continue the so-called "Grain from Ukraine" program with the involvement of ships chartered under the line of the World Food Program have been stopped. The registration of such vessels took place only after the submission of written commitments not to participate in such actions."

In conclusion, the authors of the Report report: "The accumulated knowledge archive will allow, when solving similar problems, to achieve a high level of efficiency in the shortest possible time."

So, in case of continuation of the Grain Agreement, the Russians will use all the accumulated "experience" to effectively disrupt the agreements.

The document shows that all actions to disrupt the Grain Agreement are part of a single plan developed in advance. And the targeted shelling of the Ukrainian port infrastructure is just another step in its implementation.