Jul 27 Buonasera Mag
Day 154: UA wipe out RU ammo depots, Russian blackmail, EU energy measures, visas, EU bank, Phillips, Orban, RU propagandists, Articles: HRW, Weiss, Lautman, Davis, ISPI, Avdeeva, ITA elex
Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
Stories we’re following…
Ukrainian forces reportedly continued to strike Russian ammunition depots and manpower concentrations in Kherson Oblast, likely complicating Russian logistics in the region.
Zelensky urges EU to respond to Russia’s blackmail, and terror. He said the EU should respond to the Russian-manufactured crises by strengthening sanctions and ending trade ties. "Crises created by Russia hurt the whole world, and nobody will be able to stand aside when Russia is provoking chaos in the food and energy markets and in international relations," he said.
Russian families of missing soldiers call on Putin to find their relatives. More than 100 families of Russian soldiers who went missing during the war in Ukraine have appealed to Russian dictator Vladimir Putin, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty reported.
Worries over insurance are the biggest obstacle to grain ships leaving Ukraine’s Black Sea ports this week, exporters say. Questions remain over whether insurance companies will be willing to insure the vessels as they navigate the mined waters, while buyers are hesitant to make new orders given the risk of Russian attacks.
Russia’s defence ministry plans to hold strategic military exercises in the east of the country from 30 August to 5 September, news agencies reported on Tuesday reports Interfax. The militaries of unspecified other countries will be taking part in the regular “Vostok” exercises, citing the defence ministry.
Gazprom is delaying Nord Stream 1 turbine delivery. Siemens Energy said on July 25 that a transfer of the Nord Stream 1 turbine to Russia is stalled as Gazprom needs to provide customs documents for the transportation.
Russia on Tuesday announced it will withdraw from the International Space Station (ISS) project after 2024, signaling an end of an era in one of the last remaining areas of cooperation between Russia and the United States.
Estonia to prepare proposals for EU to stop issuing visas to Russians. Estonian FM Reinsalu said that Russian tourists are now traveling to Europe en masse, while Russia is killing children in Ukraine. "This is, no doubt, morally wrong," he said as quoted by the ERR.
Cabinet asks US to supply gas to prepare for heating season. Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal described the supplies requested by Ukraine as "gas lend-lease" - a reference to the U.S. Lend-Lease Act, which enhances the president's authority to provide military aid to Ukraine.
Ukrainian president Zelenskiy on Tuesday said Russia was deliberately cutting supplies of natural gas to impose a “price terror” against Europe, and he called for more sanctions on Moscow, Reuters reports.
EU may double the import of Ukrainian electricity. EU Energy Commissioner Kadri Simson said on July 26 that the European transmission system operators will meet this week to discuss increasing the import of electricity from Ukraine.
EU countries agree on voluntary reduction of gas consumption. The EU members agreed on the voluntary reduction of gas demand by 15% this winter "to prepare for possible disruptions of gas supplies from Russia" that is "using energy supplies as a weapon," the EU Council said.
EU bank approves 1.59 billion euros in financial assistance for Ukraine. The funds will be provided by the European Investment Bank, the European Commission said. Of the total amount, 1.05 billion euros will be made available immediately.
Germany increases support for demining efforts, war crimes investigations. The increased support will span the investigations of war crimes, cyber crimes and demining efforts on the territories previously subjected to military activities.
Graham Phillips, a British citizen who video blogs pro-Kremlin material from Russian-occupied areas of Ukraine has been added to a UK government sanctions list. He’s one of 42 new designations added to the UK’s Russia sanctions list.
Turkish president Recep Erdoğan will hold a one-day visit to visit Putin at the Russian resort of Sochi on 5 August, his office has just announced.
Speakers who promote narratives consonant with Russian propaganda
The Centre for Countering Disinformation at the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine has released a list of pro-Kremlin propagandists working in the West.
Human Rights Watch, Ukraine: Torture, Disappearances in Occupied South
“Russian forces have turned occupied areas of southern Ukraine into an abyss of fear and wild lawlessness,” said Yulia Gorbunova, senior Ukraine researcher at Human Rights Watch. “Torture, inhumane treatment, as well as arbitrary detention and unlawful confinement of civilians, are among the apparent war crimes we have documented, and Russian authorities need to end such abuses immediately and understand that they can, and will, be held accountable.”
Weiss, Estonia's prime minister has a message for the West: 'Don't worry about Putin's feelings'
"I think a fundamental mistake was made after the Second World War," Kallas said, sitting beneath a painting of Moses receiving the Ten Commandments. "While the Nazi crimes were widely condemned, the communists’' crimes never were. So we see a strong revival of Stalinism right now in Russia. Seventy percent of Russians support Stalin, despite his having murdered 20 million people, despite the deportations, the prisons camps, war, everything. History books in Estonia were rewritten after communism, whereas Russians are still being taught the same history that we had to read during the Soviet period, which was total crap."
Lautman, Ukrainian intelligence- Russia is preparing a "fake investigation" into the Mariupol Drama Theater they bombed to blame Ukraine
According to The Insider, Aleksey Kutsurubenko, head of the investigative department of the ‘DNR General Prosecutor’s Office,’ had already voiced the version that the explosion in the drama theater “occurred from within through the fault of the Armed Forces of Ukraine,” a non-enveloped device allegedly exploded in the building, as a result of which 14 people died. However, he confirmed that a large number of civilians were initially hiding in the drama theater.
ISPI, The Weight of Sanction against Russia
The Russian economy is facing its biggest recession since at least the 1990s, that is, since the collapse of the USSR. According to the forecast of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation - in 2022 the GDP will decline by over 6%, the IMF expects a decline of 8.5%, the EBRD of 10%, the World Bank of 11.2%. The Ministry of Economy expects a decline between 7% and 10%, primarily due to a decrease in private sector (business) investment, given the high uncertainty.
Toth-Czifra, Russia’s Energy Blackmail — Just Say Nyet
If Russia does turn off gas deliveries to most of Europe — either on July 21 or thereafter — it will mean one of two things: that the Russian government has decided that it cannot avoid the long-term costs of such a step, because the EU is working hard to abandon the use of Russian gas; or that it does not anticipate any long-term costs from this decision, i.e., it expects to be able to return to business as usual in the foreseeable future. This would make a world of difference.
Maria Avdeeva reports…
Kharkiv Mayor Ihor Terekhov reported that a Russian strike hit a residential area close to downtown overnight on July 26. There is no information on casualties at the moment.
Julia Davis reports…
Salvini’s League elex platform: lift sanctions on Russia
Italian elections are in full swing (Lord help us), and we’re already being subjected to populist mantras on the left and right pedalling easy solutions to Italy’s long-term structural problems. There’s something for everyone.
Putin’s dear old friend, Silvio Berlusconi, has promised that his party will raise the minimum pension for everyone to 1,000 euros/month, and plant a million trees, creating jobs for 2 million people- one to plant the tree, and one to take care of it. Yes, you read that correctly.
In the first case, should Italy raise pensions to this degree, it would go into default, and the trees proposition (let’s just not get into the 2 million jobs bit) is well below what is already in Italy’s National Plan for Renewal and Resilience drafted by former PM Mario Draghi. Berlusconi is doing his old used-car salesmen routine for the grannies who adore him.
The League is also sticking by its old friends: ‘no’ to immigration and help for Russia, for the love of Pete! (or Vlady in this case) Just days after Italy’s prime minister Mario Draghi’s defenestration, the League is calling for EU sanctions against Russia to be lifted.
I’ll be writing an article on Draghi’s defenestration. Spoiler alert: Conte, Berlusconi, and Salvini had help.
Signing off for the evening…