Jul 27: E-Stories
Day 518: Kyiv UASitRep Sumy BlackSea UAEnergy Kakhovka China NorKor NATO ITA PU/Africa MOL EU UN Olenivka IOC A&P Zelensky Rosenberg ShadowMenWagner WaPoChina Jaimi UKDef ISW UKWagnerReport
Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
Stories we’re following…
Russian drones attack Kharkiv Oblast, damage industrial facilities. Russian forces attacked Kharkiv Oblast with Iranian-made drones on July 25, Pervomaisk Mayor Mykola Baksheiev reported on Telegram. Russia shells 10 communities in Sumy Oblast. Russian forces used artillery and mortars to shell 10 communities in Sumy Oblast on July 25, according to the Sumy Oblast Military Administration.
Russia attacked the Ukrainian regions of Kyiv, Khmelnytskiy and Kyrovohrad with missiles on Wednesday, Ukraine’s air force spokesperson said in televised comments after air raid sirens were sounded across the country, Reuters reports. “We have registered high-speed targets, probably also ballistic missiles, the enemy is using different weapons types,” the Yuriy Ihnat said.
Governor: 2 people killed by Russian attacks in Kherson Oblast. Russia has attacked Kherson Oblast 55 times over the past day, Gov Oleksandr Prokudin said on Telegram on July 26. Two people have been killed and three others injured, he said.
Rybar: Russian channels reported that since Wednesday morning, Ukrainian forces had resumed large(r) scale attacks towards Robotyne. Heavy equipment and lots of artillery are reported.
In the Orekhovsky area, "As a result of the attack on more than 80 armored vehicles, including tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, armored personnel carriers and armored combat vehicles, the enemy managed to penetrate in three areas. Now fierce battles are going on in this area."
Hanna Maliar, the deputy defence minister, reports in the evening presser:
Ukrainian troops are gradually advancing in the south towards Melitopol and Berdiansk;
the military is about to receive a consignment of 1,700 strike and reconnaissance drones to help with the counteroffensive;
Ukrainian forces were successfully attacking in the east on the flanks of Bakhmut and repelling Russian attacks at Kupiansk and Lyman
Ukrainian troops had gained ground in the vicinity of Staromaiors'ke on the southern front.
The UA air defence have destroyed 2 "CALIBER" cruise missiles at 1:00 p.m. over the Vinnytsia region.
In total, 30 Russian missiles were shot down over Ukraine on Wednesday.
Zelensky’s evening address on Wednesday:
Zelensky says Ukraine received air defense reinforcements. Ukraine has been delivered reinforcements for its air defense capabilities, which will be deployed where they are most needed, President Volodymyr Zelensky said on July 26.
The Ukranian Ministry of Defense press center reports that it has information that Russia is preparing ships and aircraft to blockade the Black Sea areas after withdrawal from grain deal.
Jaimi: “at this point in 1944 we were still trying to get out of the Normandy area—after having paved the way with massive air raids on Germany’s resources and own air power.”
Re-upping this information: Russian lawmakers on Tuesday backed legislation increasing the maximum age limit to 30 for compulsory military service, over a year into the Kremlin’s Ukraine offensive. The bill comes as Moscow seeks to replenish its forces on the frontline in Ukraine without resorting to another mobilisation – a step the Kremlin took last September that proved unpopular. What to watch: what impact will the decrease in concription have on employment sarcity. With Russian men at the front, many industries are registering acute shortages of manpower.
Putin plans to meet with Xi Jinping in October, while Russia’s foreign minister will join a Chinese delegation in North Korea this week.
Russia and North Korea plan to strengthen defence cooperation, Russian defence minister Sergei Shoigu said on Wednesday after talks in Pyongyang with his North Korean counterpart.
“I am convinced that today’s talks will contribute to strengthening cooperation between our defence departments,” Reuters reports Shoigu said in remarks published by Russia’s defence ministry.
Steve Rosenberg: “Russian newspapers report on military conscription age being extended to 30. The headline in one paper: “In the Duma they smell a big war.”
The New Development Bank (NDB), created by the BRICS countries to finance investment projects and issued $30 billion in loans over 7 years, will not invest in Russia. This was announced on Wednesday by the head of the bank, Dilma Rousseff, who served as president of Brazil in 2011-2016.
The Kremlin said it was impossible for Russia to return to the Black Sea grain export deal for now, as an agreement related to Russian interests was “not being implemented”. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov told reporters, however, that Vladimir Putin had made it clear the deal could be revived if its Russia-focused part was honoured.
Ukraine energy: The winter will be more difficult than the previous one, said Oleksandr Kharchenko, director of the Energy Research Center. Kharchenko warns Ukrainians to begin stockpiling gasoline for generators since so much of the energy infrastructure in Ukraine has been destoryed.
"I would advise all Ukrainians to prepare for the fact that the next winter will be difficult. The same or even more difficult than the last one. We cannot assume what will happen."
A meeting of the new Ukraine-NATO Council was held on Wednesday, convened by Secretary General of the Alliance Jens Stoltenberg to discuss solutions for the transportation of Ukrainian grain across the Black Sea.
Wheat prices rise sharply after Russian attacks on Ukrainian port infrastructure. Wheat and corn prices have risen sharply after a barrage of Russian attacks on Ukrainian ports and grain infrastructure that have followed the collapse of the Black Sea Grain Initiative.
Few analysts are talking about the fallout from Russia’s destruction of the Kakhovka Dam, and the resulting flooding of the surrounding area. The waters have now receded in the Kakhovka reservoir, which has brought other issues to solve: bacteriological contamination and demining, for example.
SBU charges ex-MP Muraiev with treason. The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) informed on July 25 that it charged the former leader of the now-banned pro-Russian Nashi party Yevhen Muraiev with high treason.
Speaker urges MPs to resume asset declarations for officials. Ruslan Stefanchuk, the speaker of Ukraine's parliament, on July 26 called on lawmakers to support a bill to restore electronic asset declarations for officials.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Tuesday he would tolerate no corruption or treachery in affairs of state while his country is struggling to find the means to defend itself against Russian invaders.
Millions of Ukrainians are focused on one thing day after day. Not on themselves, not on their own desires, but on defending the state and their lives. But unfortunately, some people think that the war is somewhere far away from them. As if the dome of the Verkhovna Rada, or the walls of some offices, or a list of some powers can shield from reality.
FT: African leaders are staying away from Russia's big summit in St Petersburg tomorrow: only 16 heads of state and government are going, as opposed to 43 the last time in 2019. In attendance, the larger economies Egypt and Ethiopia, as well as Mali and CAR, not surprising given Wagner’s presence in those countries. Many notables such as Nigeria, Kenya and Democratic Republic of Congo sitting it out or sending lower level deputies, triggering accusations from Russian authorities about Western pressure to stay away.
Russia plays mainly on two levels on the African continent: it innundates the infosphere with anti-colonial and anti-American narratives, and leverages threats of withholding wheat exports.
The limited representation is a blow for Putin, who has used Russia’s strong ties with Africa and sensitivity to his war’s effect on global agricultural markets as a wedge to rally sympathy for his stance on Ukraine.
“There is an understanding that sticking your neck out to support Russia might not be a good idea when so many counties may need financial support and bailouts in the next few years,” said Murithi Mutiga, programme director for Africa at Crisis Group.
Many countries remained “instinctively non-aligned”, he said. “There was a perception that this was tacit support for Russia but I think this was not correct: it was more to avoid being drawn in,” he said, adding that support for Russia had faded further with its flagging war effort.
Moldova’s foreign ministry said on Tuesday it would summon Russian ambassador Oleg Vasnetsov for an explanation of media reports that equipment has been installed on the Russian embassy’s rooftop that could be used for spying. The Russian embassies in many countries place equipment for spying. The equipment on the rooftop of the Embassy in Vienna, for example, has been well-documented.
The Moldovan government has announced the expulsion of 45 diplomats. The number of accredited diplomats and technical and administrative staff of the Russian Embassy in Chișinău would be reduced from 84 to 25.
German defense firm Rheinmetall announced that in the second half of 2023, Ukraine will take delivery of two Skynex air defence systems, including airburst munitions. The Skynex systems will be mounted on new Rheinmetall HX 8x8 military trucks.
Prime Minister Shmyhal said that the Ukrainian government has allocated 40 billion UAH ($1 billion) for the production of UAV's. More than 40 companies have signed contracts with the government, increasing the production rate by a tenfold.
Von der Leyen: EU pays out 1.5-billion-euro tranche in financial assistance to Ukraine. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced on July 25 that the EU had paid out 1.5 billion euros ($1.65 billion) in macro-financial aid to Ukraine.
Minister: Foreign donors pledge $244 million for demining Ukraine. International donors pledged $244 million to assist Ukraine in demining work, Economy Minister Yuliia Svyrydenko said on July 25.
IOC does not invite Russia, Belarus to 2024 Olympic Games in Paris. The International Olympic Committee (IOC) did not invite Russia and Belarus to the 2024 Olympic Games in Paris, the IOC announced on July 26.
The UN human rights chief on Tuesday called for accountability for the deaths of at least 50 Ukrainian prisoners of war at Olenivka last year in an explosion in a Donetsk region detention facility, rejecting Moscow’s claim that they were killed by a rocket.
“The prisoners of war who were injured or died at Olenivka, and their family members, deserve the truth to be known, and for those responsible for breaches of international law to be held accountable,” Reuters reports high commissioner for human rights Volker Türk in a statement sent to journalists.
The Italian Senate has passed the motion to recognise the Holodomor as genocide of the Ukrainian people. Four senators abstained and Sen De Cristofaro voted against the motion.
UN rejects Russia's claims on Olenivka prison massacre. U.N. High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Turk rejected on July 25 Moscow's claims that Ukrainian prisoners of war who died in the Olenivka massacre were killed by a Ukrainian HIMARS strike.
Helsinki Commission US, Chairman @RepJoeWilson: "Russia has been kidnapping Ukrainian children to Russia or Russian-controlled areas of Ukraine and forcibly russifying them...This is a war crime and I believe amounts to genocide under the 1948 Genocide Convention."
Dutch Judge Charlotte van Rijnberk, who was reprimanded for "undermining" the MH17 trial with conspiracy theories, will resign from her post, the newspaper Het Financieele Dagblad reported on July 25. Van Rijnberk will step down from the Court of Appeals in The Hague by Aug. 1 after she tried to spread a conspiracy theory among judges presiding over the MH17 case that Ukraine shot down the Dutch airliner, the outlet wrote.
The House of Commons Foreign Affairs Committee in the UK has released their report on Wagner’s operations. The report says a decade-long failure by the British government had allowed the Wagner network to grow, spread its tentacles deep into Africa and exploit vulnerable countries, and called on the government to proscribe the Wagner group in the UK and to make a far more concerted effort to stop it using the City of London as a financial centre.
ICYMI, E-Stories had already posted a WSJ documentary on Wagner’s growth and business dealings worldwide.
China abruptly removes its foreign minister—NYT
Five weeks ago, China’s foreign minister, Qin Gang, was at the center of an important restoration of high-level diplomacy in U.S.-China relations: He shook hands with Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken in Beijing and accepted an invitation to visit the U.S.
Soon after, he disappeared from public view. Yesterday, he was replaced by the former foreign minister, Wang Yi. “The suddenness and opacity surrounding Qin’s dismissal demonstrates the volatility that has now become a feature of China’s political system under Xi,” an analyst told The Times.
WaPo: China’s economy is having more difficulty emerging from three years of “zero covid” lockdowns than expected, with the latest data showing that growth remains sluggish.
The property market and the construction work it generates, responsible for about a quarter of economic growth, is in decline. Consumption remains tepid as households are cautious about big purchases. Indebted local governments are flirting with defaults.
Together these economic challenges have caused a big spike in joblessness, particularly among young people. The unemployment rate for 16- to 24-year-olds hit a record 21 percent last month, although one economist thinks the real number may nearer to half.
The leadership has long justified its autocratic rule by promising a better economic future. Xi has gone further with ambitious pledges to tackle inequality and deliver “common prosperity” across Chinese society. But the old engines of China’s rapid economic ascent — a construction boom and mass urbanization — are sputtering, meaning fewer jobs across the board.
“When businesspeople are not certain about economic prospects, companies are unwilling to expand employment,” said Zhang Jun, dean of economics at Fudan University in Shanghai. And that in turn means less spending. “Because of the epidemic shock, many people’s incomes have not increased or may have even decreased, and many families have become more cautious,” he said. [continue]