Jul 31: E-Stories
Day 522: Sumy MoscowDrones UAboatdrones RUconscription Prigozhin AfricaSummit Niger Georgia KhersonMuseum Starlink EUDisinfo ChineseMalware A&P ISW UKDef DW NYTNiger
Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
Stories we’re following…
Suspline: city council of Sumy reporting two people died and 20 were injured in Sumy Oblast as a result of a Russian missile attack on an educational institution.
Russia attacks Kherson, Dnipropetrovsk oblasts, Zaporizhzhia and 6 other Oblasts, and bombards Snake Island overnight. Russian tactical aviation fired on July 30 two air bombs at Ukraine’s Snake Island, located 35 kilometers from the mainland of Odesa Oblast, Southern Operational Command reported.
Forbes: During the week of active shelling of Odessa, the Russian Federation launched $280 million worth of missiles and UAVs in the region. As a result, more than 460,000 tons of grain and several grain terminals were destroyed. Dozens of people were injured. In particular, dozens of cargo ships were blocked in the Danube water area as a result of Russian strikes.
Defense Ministry: Russian forces aim to maintain control over land corridor into occupied Crimea. Russian forces are focusing on maintaining control of the land corridor to occupied Crimea in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia oblasts, the Defense Ministry's Military Media Center reported on July 29.
Ukrainian forces are near Russia’s 1st Line of Major Trench Fortifications in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. If Ukraine breaks through it then they would be less than 9km away from Russia’s 2nd and final line of major trench fortifications until the Sea of Azov and the City of Melitopol.
Russian authorities said on Sunday its forces had thwarted a Ukrainian attempt to attack Russia-annexed Crimea with 25 drones overnight.
Moskva City: Drones struck OKO-2 Tower on the 5th and 6th floor in the centre of Moscow at 4:15 am Moscow. The Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation reported about three drones. One of them was destroyed in the air by means of air defense over the territory of the Odintsovsky district of the Moscow region, and two more were suppressed by means of EW, as a result of which they collapsed on the territory of the complex of non-residential buildings of Moscow City.
Three russian ministries are located in the attacked Moscow-City tower – the Ministry of Economic Development, the Ministry of Industry and Trade, and the Ministry of Digital Development (Communications). Eyewitnesses showed footage of the Russian Ministry of Digital Development documentation, which was blown out of the office by the blast wave. The Ministry is located in the second 42-story tower.
After the drone attack on Moscow City, sensitive documents of Russian Ministry of Digital Transformation, were blown onto the street from the high-rise. This is the fourth attack on Moscow since May. Russian federal TV channels in the morning news releases did not begin to talk about the drone attack, in which the towers of Moscow City were damaged, the Agency writes.
“War is returning to the territory of Russia,” President Zelenskyy has warned, after three Ukrainian drones were shot down in Moscow. He added that “this is an inevitable, natural and absolutely fair process” and that Russia’s symbolic centres and military bases would be targeted.
Putin said the Russian navy will get 30 new ships this year, Reuters reports. Putin made the announcement at the annual Navy Day Parade in St Petersburg. Just a suggestion: air defence for Moscow?
Ukrainian military confirms striking bridge between Kherson Oblast and Crimea. The Ukrainian military confirmed on July 29 that it had struck the Chonhor Bridge, connecting Russian-occupied part of Kherson Oblast and the occupied Crimean peninsula in the morning.
CNN: The drone control panel is also shown in the first few seconds. The range is 800 kilometers and can contain 300 kg of explosives. It is noted that it is developed and produced entirely in Ukraine.
Putin has said African and Chinese proposals could serve as a basis for finding peace, but added elements were “difficult or impossible” to implement. He was speaking at a press conference after meeting African leaders in St Petersburg.
Monique: Putin and the Russian leadership have no incentive to seriously begin peace negotiations and the events of the last few days is indicative that Russia is aiming for a long war: Russia-Africa Summit to secure resources through contracts, calls for unity and that everyone should conform to the needs of the war, and the increase in the conscription age to 30 years old, passed by the State Duma.
This week, the State Duma, in an emergency and rather closed regime from citizens, adopted a package of laws that actually marked a tough military reform in Russia. Now the draft age for Russians will be raised to 30 years . Conscripts, after serving the subpoenas, will be banned from traveling abroad, and huge fines will be issued for non-appearance at the military registration and enlistment office. The main conductor of military reform in the State Duma, Chairman of the Defense Committee Andrei Kartapolov directly stated : “This law was written for a big war, for general mobilization.” And now this big war already smacks of.
ISW assessment: After Prigozhin’s mutiny, there has been a decrease in the quality of reporting by Russian milbloggers in the ultranationalist information space. In the past they were actually quite reliable but now they are spreading disinformation: the Ukrainian counteroffensive as a failure, increasingly exaggerating Ukrainian losses and downplaying Russian losses and challenges. They are purposefully spreading old footage from the front.
American analysts believe that Russian "military correspondents" are distorting the coverage of the Ukrainian counteroffensive because they fear punishment from the Kremlin after the arrest of the former "defense minister" of the self-proclaimed "DPR" Igor Strelkov (Girkin), who criticized the actions of the Russian Defense Ministry.
The National Resistance Centre: The Russians are taking measures to strengthen their systemic information and propaganda influence on young people in occupied Crimea. The NRC reports that Russian authorities held an event, “The Way of Victory” with the participation of more than 120 students from Russian-controlled universities of the occupied peninsula, as well as representatives of the Russian occupation forces from the Armed Forces, the Ministry of Internal Affairs, the Ministry of Emergencies and the prosecutor's office.
Kherson Art Museum accused the Russians of illegally exporting three paintings by Aivazovsky. The paintings “The storm subsides”, “View of the city of Odessa” and “Sea” were stolen in November 2022. Together with them, according to the museum, the works of Ukrainian, Russian and European artists were stolen.
Georgian Pirveli TV reported that the cruise ship Astoria Grande, the arrival of which was protested in Batumi due to the presence of Russian tourists on board, is owned by Russian businessman Dmitry Purim. The Astoria Grande ship is officially registered in the Seychelles to avoid sanctions. However, Pirveli claims that its real owner is Dmitry Purim, against whom Ukraine has imposed sanctions.
According to Ukraine’s National Agency on Corruption Prevention, the sanctions were imposed on him because he is a member of the senior management of a "systemically important company involved in material support of actions that undermine or threaten the territorial integrity, sovereignty and independence of Ukraine".
Olga Kharlan led Ukraine to the semifinals of the World Fencing Championship. In a heated match, she beat her US counterpart Elisabeth Tartakovsky for the win. In the end, Ukrainian fencers lost two key World Fencing Championships matches on 30 July, taking fourth place. This is the Ukrainian fencing team’s best ever result at the championships.
Ukraine received USD 1.5 billion in guarantees from Japan through the World Bank mechanism and will be used for recovering the economy and strengthening the social protection of the Ukrainian population.
Pope Francis urges Russia to restore Black Sea grain deal. Pope Francis called on Russia to return to the Black Sea Grain Initiative, which has allowed Ukraine to export agricultural products via its seaports to help alleviate the global hunger crisis.
"I appeal to my brothers, the authorities of the Russian Federation, so that the Black Sea initiative may be resumed and grain may be transported safely," the head of the Catholic Church said during his Sunday Angelus prayer.
Official: ‘Peace Formula’ meeting to take place soon in Saudi Arabia. President Zelensky's Chief of Staff Andriy Yermak said on July 30 that a meeting would be held in Saudi Arabia in the near future to discuss the implementation of Ukraine's peace initiatives.
WSJ: Saudi Arabia to host Ukraine peace talks, without Russia, in August. Saudi Arabia is due to host Ukraine peace talks on Aug. 5 and 6, inviting top officials from 30 countries, including India, Brazil, and Western nations, the Wall Street Journal reported on July 29, citing diplomats involved in the discussion.
The US Department of Defense will purchase a batch of 400-500 Starlink terminals for the Ukrainian Armed Forces. The deal is intended to provide Ukraine with dedicated terminals/services to conduct operations without fearing Musk turning off the signal.
DW: Russia is spreading disinformation and anti-West propaganda in Africa via local influencers paid by Moscow officials.
NYT, Africa’s coup belt spans the continent: a line of six countries crossing 3,500 miles, from coast to coast, that has become the longest corridor of military rule on Earth. This past week’s military takeover in the West African nation of Niger toppled the final domino in a band across the girth of Africa, from Guinea in the west to Sudan in the east, now controlled by juntas that came to power in a coup — all but one in the past two years.
The last leader to fall was Niger’s Mohamed Bazoum, a democratically elected American ally who disappeared on Wednesday when his own guards detained him at the presidential palace in the capital, Niamey. His security chief now claims to be running the country.
African leaders sounded the alarm over the latest blow to democracy on a continent where decades of hard-won advances are slipping away.
“Africa has suffered a serious setback,” Kenya’s president, William Ruto, said on Friday.
The Sahel has surpassed the Middle East and South Asia to become the global epicenter of jihadist violence, accounting for 43 percent of 6,701 deaths in 2022, up from 1 percent in 2007, according to the Global Terrorism Index, an annual study by the Institute for Economics and Peace.
Until this past week, Niger was the cornerstone of the Pentagon’s regional strategy. At least 1,100 American troops are stationed in the country, where the U.S. military built drone bases in Niamey and the northern city of Agadez, one at a cost of $110 million. Now, all of that is in jeopardy. [continue]
U.S. Hunts Chinese Malware That Could Disrupt American Military Operations—NYT
American intelligence officials believe the malware could give China the power to disrupt or slow American deployments or resupply operations, including during a Chinese move against Taiwan.
The Biden administration is hunting for malicious computer code it believes China has hidden deep inside the networks controlling power grids, communications systems and water supplies that feed military bases in the United States and around the world, according to American military, intelligence and national security officials.
The discovery of the malware has raised fears that Chinese hackers, probably working for the People’s Liberation Army, have inserted code designed to disrupt U.S. military operations in the event of a conflict, including if Beijing moves against Taiwan in coming years.
The malware, one congressional official said, was essentially “a ticking time bomb” that could give China the power to interrupt or slow American military deployments or resupply operations by cutting off power, water and communications to U.S. military bases. But its impact could be far broader, because that same infrastructure often supplies the houses and businesses of ordinary Americans, according to U.S. officials.
The first public hints of the malware campaign began to emerge in late May, when Microsoft said it had detected mysterious computer code in telecommunications systems in Guam, the Pacific island with a vast American air base, and elsewhere in the United States. [continue]