Jul 5: E-Stories
Day 496: Amelina Pervomaisk Kherson Bakhmut MoscowDrone SCO RUdomestic NATO Italy Norway ICC Vienna A&P Betsa AFP UKDef Avdeeva Zelensky TimesRadio Tchakarova Gershchenko Davis PutinDownfall
Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
Stories we’re following…
Zelensky: War not over until Ukraine liberates Crimea. In an interview with CNN on Monday, President Volodymyr Zelensky said that Ukraine's ultimate goal is to liberate Crimea and any "peace scenario" with the peninsula remaining under Russian control would "not be victory."
Russian strikes targeted 9 oblasts over the past day, killing at least 9 civilians and injuring 34, local officials reported on July 4. The attacks targeted Chernihiv, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Kherson, Sumy, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, Luhansk, & Mykolaiv oblasts. The death toll from the Russian missile attack on Sumy rises to 3.
Russian fired an Iskander missile wounding 43 people, including 12 children at the small town of Pervomaisk Kharkiv region on Tuesday, regional governor Oleh Synehubov said. Synehubov said on the Telegram messaging app that the shelling took place at 1.35pm Kyiv time (10.35 GMT) and several cars were on fire. The videos coming out of Pervomaisk are harrowing. The apartments of about 2,000 people were damaged in the attack on the town, which lies near the border with Russia, and residents were being provided with hot meals, he said.
MoD: Russian military stockpiling reserves in east and south, fierce battles ongoing. Russian troops have deployed two air assault regiments in Bakhmut direction and are stockpiling reserves in the south.
Andrii Kovalov, the spokesperson for the General Staff of the Armed Forces, has said that to the north and south of the city of Bakhmut, the defenders continue to pressure the Russians and drive them from the previously seized borders. "They have partial success and gain a foothold on the achieved borders. The Russians are putting up fierce resistance and suffering huge losses. Heavy fighting continues here," he said.
Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin said on Tuesday that Ukraine had launched a drone attack on the Russian capital and its region, temporarily disrupting flight operations at the Vnukovo airport. “At this moment, the attacks have been repelled by air defence forces,” Sobyanin said on Telegram. “All detected drones have been eliminated”. There were no casualties or injured reported. Russian foreign ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said this was an act of terrorism.
Noel Reports: This morning the Moscow region was attacked by unknown drones. An explosion is reported on the territory of a military unit in Kubinka, the neighboring Vnukovo airport has stopped accepting aircraft.
Energoatom: Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant again loses connection to its main power line. Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant again lost connection to its main external power line overnight on July 4, reported Ukraine's state nuclear energy agency Energoatom.
Russian state-owned nuclear company Rosenergoatom claims that Ukraine is going to attack the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant using precision weapons and kamikaze drones on the night of July 5 - RIA. Tass has reported that the Ukrainian power line connected to the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant has been cut off. It cited Renat Karchaa, adviser to the general director of the Rosenergoatom.
General Staff: Russia preparing provocation at occupied Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant. Russia may be preparing a provocation at the occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant "in the near future," the General Staff of Ukraine's Armed Forces reported on July 4. They have warned fellow citizens that the Russians may soon start preparations for provocations at the Zaporizhzhia NPP, and placed explosive-like objects on on the outer roof of the third and fourth power units of the ZNPP on Tuesday.
Russia failed assassination attempt on Crimea proxy head. Russia's Federal Security Service (FSB) claimed that it thwarted a car bombing attempt against a Russia-installed proxy head in Crimea Sergei Aksyonov, Interfax news agency reported on July 3.
Russia sees no basis for renewing the Black Sea grain deal, the Russian foreign ministry said on Tuesday, less than two weeks before the expiration of the agreement which has allowed grain to be shipped out of Black Sea ports despite the war in Ukraine. The ministry said in a statement Russia was doing everything so that all ships covered by the deal could leave the Black Sea before it expires on 17 July, Reuters reported.
Putin has told a virtual summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) that the world faces an increasing risk of conflict due to economic and financial instability, and thanked the leaders of China and India for their support during the recent Wagner mutiny in the country.
The risks of a new global economic and financial crisis are rising against the backdrop of uncontrolled accumulation of debts in developed countries, social stratification and growing poverty around the world, deteriorating food and environmental security. All these problems, each of which is complex and diverse in its own way, in their totality lead to a noticeable increase in conflict potential. Russia feels all this directly itself.
The Russian people are more consolidated than ever. The Russian political circles and the whole of society clearly demonstrated the solidarity and high responsibility for the fate of the fatherland by speaking out as a united front against the attempted armed rebellion. I would like to take this opportunity to thank my colleagues from the SCO countries who expressed support for the actions of the Russian leadership to protect the constitutional order life and safety of citizens. We highly appreciate it.
Putin is trying to give the illusion of governing in view of the presidential elections: he held a meeting with members of the government via videoconference . Among other things, they discussed traffic jams on the Crimean bridge, which arose against the background of the inspection of cars and the influx of tourists to the annexed Crimea.
In the first quarter of 2023, transactions of Russians with "unquoted shares and other forms of participation in the capital of non-residents" amounted to 316.1 billion rubles, the Central Bank said in a survey of household savings. The amount spent by Russians on the purchase of foreign real estate is comparable to how much they cashed out (cash in the hands of households increased by 300.6 billion rubles over the quarter). In total, in 2022, Russians bought at least 40,000 properties abroad, according to Tranio data. The median budget of Russian-speaking home buyers in Turkey, the United Arab Emirates, Cyprus, Spain and Greece ranged from 140,000 to 300,000 euros. Based on an average price of 150,000 euros per object, it turns out that at least 6 billion euros were spent on the purchase of housing last year.
Meduza: Novaya Gazeta journalist, Yelena Milashina, and lawyer Alexander Nemov attacked in Chechnya. They were severely beaten, the journalist's fingers were broken. The car carrying Milashina and Nemov was stopped by masked men on the way from the airport to Grozny, Novaya Gazeta writes. Milashina and Nemov were severely beaten, their equipment and documents were destroyed. They were kicked, including in the face, threatened with death, and put a gun to her head. When they were beaten, they were told: “You were warned. Get out of here and don't write anything."
There was a significant increase in the number of applications from Russians seeking asylum in France in 2022. According to the French Office for the Protection of Refugees and Stateless Persons (Ofpra), the "long-term nature and severity of the Russian regime" have resulted in a higher influx of asylum requests from Russia compared to previous years, with a growth rate of +75%. A total of 2,617 Russians have filed asylum applications, expressing their concerns about their political views as they oppose the war and refuse to respond to the draft or mobilisation in the Russian armed forces, as stated by the Office.
Very good conversation with President Zelenskyy on the latest developments in Ukraine, and our preparations for the NATO Summit. In Vilnius, Allies will take decisions to step up support for the long haul, upgrade our political ties, and bring Ukraine closer to NATO.
Zelensky—Security in Europe with Ukraine and NATO:
“Europe can only be peaceful if peace is guaranteed by full security certainty. Europe cannot have a deficit of security certainty that will provoke Russian tyranny and aggression. Russia will try to take a bite out of Europe only when it sees any kind of security uncertainty. When everything is certain and clear, Russian tyranny does not dare to violate security.
It is obvious that Europe can be protected from any aggression only together with Ukraine and only together with Ukraine in NATO. That is why we must achieve security certainty about our future in the Alliance. Then Russia will have to refocus on its own statehood—to finally take care of itself, not embark on expansion.”
NATO military chief: Ukraine not to receive fighter jets before counteroffensive already over, said Lieutenant Admiral Rob Bauer, the Chairman of the Military Committee of NATO, on British radio station LBC on July 4.
Ministry: European countries spent $47 billion so far to aid Ukrainian refugees. European countries have allocated 43 billion euros ($47 billion) on shelter and aid for Ukrainian refugees since the start of the full-scale invasion, the Reintegration Ministry informed on July 4.
Italy has frozen Russian oligarchs’ assets valued at about 2 billion euros ($2.5bn) after the invasion of Ukraine last year, the country’s central bank said on Tuesday. Italy seized assets – including bank accounts, luxury villas, yachts and cars – as part of the European Union’s sanctions against the Kremlin and its backers, Reuters reported. In its annual report, the Bank of Italy’s anti-money laundering unit (UIF) said the 2 billion euro figure had been updated to the end of June. UIF director Enzo Serata added that financial holdings worth about 330 million euros, linked to 80 individuals, had been frozen as part of the sanctions regime.
New body for investigating Russian crime of aggression opens office in The Hague. The International Center for the Prosecution of Crimes of Aggression against Ukraine (ICPA) opened an office in The Hague, the European Commission announced on July 3. While the ICC will prosecute the Russian leadership for specific crimes, the ICPA will prosecute for starting the war itself.
Pistorius: Dozens of Leopard 2 tanks will arrive in Ukraine 'in the coming weeks'. In a recent interview with the Polish news outlet Rzeczpospolita, German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said dozens of Leopard 1A5 tanks that were allocated to Ukraine by Germany and Denmark, will arrive "in the coming weeks."
This is HUGE. Velina Tchakarova: A massive underground deposit of high-grade phosphate rock in Norway, pitched as the world’s largest, is big enough to satisfy world demand for fertilisers, solar panels and electric car batteries over the next 100 years, The Norwegian deposit is estimated to be worth 70 billion tonnes at least. By far the largest phosphate rock deposits in the world – around 50 billion tonnes – are situated in the Western Sahara region of Morocco. The next biggest are located in China (3.2 billion tonnes), Egypt (2.8 billion tonnes), and Algeria (2.2bn tonnes), according to US estimates.
Alabuga SEZ workers training in Iran for drone production
On the territory of the Alabuga, a special economic zone in Tatarstan, a mass assembly of combat drones from Iranian components for the Russian army has been organized. This is stated in the investigation of the publication "Protocol" and the YouTube channel " RZVRT ".
After the start of a full-scale invasion of Russia vs Ukraine, many foreign companies had planned to become residents of Alabuga and build their enterprises there but abandoned these plans. Ford withdrew from the SEZ and a joint venture with the Russian Sollers group to produce Ford Transit light commercial trucks.
According to the authors of the investigation, Shahed-136 kamikaze drones are being assembled in Alabuga, components for them are completely supplied from Iran. According to journalists, the agreement with Iran provides for the training of specialists from Alabuga on the territory of Iranian production. The first such trip took place in March 2023. Currently, senior specialists and key management staff are undergoing training. It is assumed that more than 200 people, including mid-level specialists and students, will undergo such training in Iran.
The agreement implies the transfer from the Iranian side of the design documentation, which Iranian and Russian engineers are jointly finalizing. They also adapt processes to Russian realities and needs. [continue]
Julia Davis: Solovyev weighs in on the riots in France
Russian state TV propagandists gloated over the protests in France, unfavorably comparing them to Prigozhin's mutiny. They discussed how to convince the world that the West is in decline and Russia is the new superpower.
The top 10 international companies operating in Russia
Ulrike Franke: New study shows that most western companies continue to do business in Russia. Of formerly 371 German companies, 262 are still in Russia – and have paid 402 Million USD in taxes. That’s the second highest number, after US companies.
What’s going on in Vienna?
Window stickers offensive to Ukrainians began popping up at two locations in Vienna. David Pickworth reports that the pictures were taken in two different locations in Vienna: “The second (which is shown with police attending) is in Herrengasse, just near Michaelerplatz and next door to the MCM shop. It appears to be a pop-up art gallery, always with something provocative in the window.”
BBC News: Mines are slowing down the counteroffensive
"Mines are terrifying. They scare me more than anything else," said Artyom, a 36-year-old soldier from Ukraine's 108th Territorial Defence Brigade. Two days earlier, two of his colleagues had stood on "petals" - small, green, anti-personnel mines - that had recently been scattered across a field by Russian rockets.
"Our guys were experienced. But it's hard to have eyes everywhere. Both have leg amputations. One leg each. We have [mine] injuries after every fight," said Artyom, a trained sapper, explaining that the rockets enable Russian forces to plant new mines in places that have already been liberated and cleared by Ukrainian forces.
"Of course, it slows down the movement of troops," said the commander of a nine-man sapper squad with the call sign Dill. He'd just finished a de-mining mission on the nearby frontlines to the east of the tiny, ruined village of Predtechyne, outside Bakhmut. He laid out an array of deactivated Russian mines on the ground beneath a tree, taking care to make sure he could not be spotted by Russian drones overhead.
"The enemy has no mercy for their own soldiers. They're used as cannon fodder. But we're trying to move forwards with the minimum of casualties," said the Lieutenant Serhii Tyshenko from the 3rd Assault Brigade, speaking from the shelter of a nearby bunker.