Jul 8: Saturday Stories
Day 499: Zapo BlackSea US Bulgaria Slovakia Czechia Zelensky Samara Rozivka Kherson RUarms RUgas NATO Belgium A&P PrigozhinMeduza Bloomberg Berlusca OCCRP Kirby CAMIP
Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
Ukraine Defense sent their best wishes to the US for their Independence Day.
Stories we’re following…
Death toll of Lviv missile strike rises to 10. As of around 7 a.m. local time on July 7, 10 people are known to have been killed and 42 injured as a result of Russia’s July 6 missile strike on Lviv, according to the city's mayor.
Suspilne, Ukraine’s state broadcaster, reports that overnight Russia struck the right-bank of the Dnipro river near the Antonivka road bridge. Five civilians in Kherson were left wounded. There were, it claimed, 29 strikes in all.
Ukrainian troops have advanced by more than a kilometer in the last day against Russian forces near the eastern city of Bakhmut, a military spokesperson said. His comments were the latest by Kyiv signaling that the counteroffensive it launched in early June is gradually making progress although Russian accounts of fighting in the Bakhmut sector differ from Ukraine's.
Media report explosion at factory in Russia's Samara Oblast. An explosion has occurred at the Promsintez plant in the Russian town of Chapayevsk, Samara Oblast, the Russian state news agency RIA Novosti reported on July 7, citing emergency services.
Against the background of the successful military operations of the Ukrainian forces in the Rozivka district of Zaporizhzhia Oblast, about 20 Russians refused to carry out their tasks at the forward positions. They were detained, the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports.
Prigozhin was supposed to be in Belarus under a deal brokered to end the Wagner Group’s mutiny. Now, Belarus' president says he's in Russia.
The Russian occupiers have reported that a traffic jam has started forming at the exit point from the occupied peninsula of Crimea, near the Crimean Bridge. They’re trying to get out.
Russia sets date for sham 'elections' in occupied Kherson Oblast. Russia will hold illegal "elections" in the occupied parts of Kherson Oblast between Sep. 8-10, said Yurii Sobolevskyi, the first deputy head of the Kherson Oblast Council on July 6.
According to the latest estimates published by Bloomberg+Oryx: Ukraine now has more heavy vehicles than Russia: 1,500 tanks (an increase from 987 before the war), Russia 1,400 (3,400 at the beginning of the war). Russia now has 1,900 heavy artillery pieces and 841 MLRS systems, Ukraine has 1,100 and 427. Matteo Villa adds that from the beginning of Moscow’s full-scale invasion, the Russian ground forces have lost 2000 to 2,200 (more realistic) tanks, which have not been replaced (Source: ISPI report based on data from IISS, Oryx, Kiel Institute and Michel 2023).
Russia – which has repeatedly threatened to pull out of the Black Sea grain initiative because it claims western sanctions are preventing it exporting its own agricultural products – has today claimed it exported a record 60m tonnes of grain in the last year. Reuters reported the figure, citing the agriculture ministry.
The Russian authorities are preparing a record increase in at least 10 years of gas tariffs for the population in response to a sharp drop in Gazprom's revenues, which lost revenue from gas supplies to Europe. From July 1, 2024, gas for all categories of consumers (citizens and businesses) will rise in price by 8%, and then by another 8% in 2025, follows from the draft order of the Federal Antimonopoly Service (FAS), published on the portal of regulations.
In 2022, Russia lost 12 positions at once in the Global Expression Report 2023 global freedom of information ranking prepared by Article 19. The Russian Federation was in 28th place from the bottom, ranking 141 out of 161. Above it in the list are most African countries, all post-Soviet republics, except for Turkmenistan and Belarus.
Reuters: Raiffeisen delays exit from Russia as Austria protects ties. Raiffeisen Bank International is delaying its pullback from Russia as Austria wants to safeguard its long-standing ties with Moscow, Reuters reported on July 6, citing three undisclosed sources.
Russian troops mined the Zaporizhzhya NPP in the first weeks of the occupation, an employee who still works at the plant said in an interview with Suspіlna. His name is not called.
The station has been mined since the first weeks of the occupation. Why there is such a panic right now, I do not know. Perhaps this is in order to draw attention to the ZNPP, especially when work is underway to liberate the south of Ukraine. Perhaps, after the explosion of the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power station, no one knows what to expect.
Russia announced Thursday that it was shuttering Finland's consulate in St. Petersburg and expelling nine of its diplomats, calling the move a response to a "confrontational anti-Russian policy" being pursued by Helsinki. The relationship between the neighboring countries has deteriorated following Russia's large-scale military operation in Ukraine. The hostilities prompted Finland to break with decades of military non-alignment and apply to join NATO in May 2022, formally becoming a member in April.
The total value of all military assistance packages to Ukraine from Finland now amounts to around 1.2 billion euros. According to the Ministry of Defence of Finland, this will be the 17th package of defence materiel to Ukraine, including anti-aircraft weapons and ammunition, among other items.
"We will continue to support Ukraine together with our allies. The outcome of the war will determine the security order of Europe and Finland for decades, which is why supporting Ukraine is an essential part of Finland's security," says Minister of Defence Antti Häkkänen.
Stoltenberg says Vilnius summit will agree on 3-part package 'to bring Ukraine closer to NATO'. NATO member states are expected to adopt a three-part package "to bring Ukraine closer" to the alliance during its next summit in Vilnius, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said on July 7.
Bulgaria is nearing an agreement to sell two Russian-made nuclear reactors and other critical equipment to Ukraine’s state-owned atomic energy company, the Wall Street Journal reports. Under the deal, which the paper said is still being negotiated, Sofia’s state power company NEK would sell Ukrainian state nuclear company Energoatom equipment from the unfinished Belene Nuclear Power Plant for at least €600m (£512m).
Bulgaria signs declaration in support of Ukraine's move toward NATO membership. Following a bilateral meeting in Sofia on July 6, President Volodymyr Zelensky and Bulgarian Prime Minister Nikolai Denkov signed a joint declaration on Ukraine's Euro-Atlantic integration.
Zelensky argues with Bulgarian president over his opposition to arming Ukraine. During his July 6 visit to Sofia, President Volodymyr Zelensky argued with Bulgarian President Rumen Radev over his negative stance on arming Ukraine in a televised meeting cited by Politico. Unlike Radev, Bulgaria's new pro-European government under Prime Minister Nikolai Denkov openly supports arms supplies to Ukraine.
Zelensky visits Czechia, tells Prague Ukraine is 'moving forward.’ Ukraine maintains the initiative in its counteroffensive against occupying Russian troops, President Volodymr Zelensky said in a joint press conference with Czech President Petr Pavel on July 6. Czechia to send Ukraine more attack helicopters, ammunition, Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala tweeted on July 7 and "hundreds of thousands" rounds of large-caliber ammunition "in the coming months."
The US will send cluster munitions to Ukraine as part of a new military aid package, National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan confirmed on Friday, following months of debate within the Biden administration about whether to provide Kyiv with the controversial weapons.
“I’m not going to stand up here and say it is easy,” Sullivan told reporters. “It’s a difficult decision. It’s a decision we deferred. It’s a decision that required a real hard look at the potential harm to civilians. And when we put all of that together, there was a unanimous recommendation from the national security team, and President Biden ultimately decided, in consultation with allies and partners and in consultation with members of Congress, to move forward on this strategy.”
President Zelensky met with Slovakia’s president Zuzana Caputova in Bratislava, and in a joint press conference she said Ukraine’s Nato membership was a matter of “when” not “if”. She also said Slovakia sees Ukraine as a prospective member of the EU.
NYT: In Beijing, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen criticized China’s harsh treatment of U.S. companies, reflecting tensions between the two countries. Ms. Yellen also criticized China’s recent decision to impose export controls on certain critical minerals. Her comments underscore the challenges that the world’s two largest economies face as they look to move beyond their deep differences.
The Belgian Treasury has granted about 10% of applications to release assets that were frozen in the Belgian depository Euroclear after the start of a full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine, Francis Adins, General Counsel of the department, told Forbes. According to him, in total, the Belgian Treasury received 1,300 applications from both European and non-European investors - individuals and companies. In total, as reported, Euroclear blocked assets for 5.7 trillion rubles. Until now, there have been several known cases of asset unfreezing. As Forbes recalls, the Belgian authorities have approved statements about this from Russians with a European residence permit and accounts and one applicant without a residence permit, but with an account in the EU.
Robert Costa at CBS News: The Biden admin. is "aware" that "private entities and individuals" spoke with Russian officials about the war in Ukraine, the NSC's John Kirby tells Costa. "I can't speak for these private entities," Kirby says, adding the talks "were not encouraged" by the admin.
After Prigozhin's Wagner Uprising, Putin Already Heading Off Future Threats—Newsweek
Nearly two weeks on, despite ample remaining unknowns, Putin's government has taken at least one very visible, concrete step aimed at scaring off any copycat performance of Wagner's armed mutiny.
"Rosgvardiya, the Russian National Guard group that reports directly to the president, was already a paramilitary organization," Barros explained. "After June 24, it was announced that they will now be receiving unspecified forms of heavy weaponry, meaning that, as a result of Prigozhin's march, we could soon see Vladimir Putin's domestic protection service driving around in main battle tanks."
"The Kremlin is doing whatever it can to prevent this kind of threat from repeating itself," he added.
The fact that the Kremlin did not crack down hard on Prigozhin and his soldiers is quite telling according to Barros:
"The fact that these Wagner fighters are being given the chance to return to the fold after participating in a treasonous insurrection is an indication of just how starved the Russian Ministry of Defense is for effective combat power," Barros said.
Prigozhin’s home in St Petersberg
Meduza on Telegram has published photos of Prigozhin’s home in St Petersburg. His home is luxurious and had a few surprises.
Prigozhin kept a collection of wigs in case he needed to escape uncognito, and a resuscitation room and a significant arsenal in case of an attack on him personally.
A moment of levity on social media: These are selfies that Prigozhin took of himself leaked by the Russian security forces, and a genius has already made the first meme out of them.
And from Crazy Ass Moments in Italian Politics
Talk about pre-nuptials! I wonder who she will be flipping the money to in the end? All the money in the world would not have been enough for me to spend two minutes with Berlusca.
