Jul 3: E-Stories
RUattacksUA CombatSit BehindLines InRussia Allies A&P Pie Sky UKDef ISW CDS Noel Lautman Farkas Peter Orton Heikkinen Orban Daractenus Manzo TheInsider
Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
General Elections tomorrow in the UK: Let’s see what voters say after 14 years of Tory rule, which saw the government grapple with separation from the EU, the Covid pandemic and the fallout from years of austerity and incompetence.
I’ve followed UK politics closely for years, so I’m very curious to see what the British decide. We know who Jonathan Pie will not be voting for. It’s a brilliant rant, and shockingly close to the truth. I will say one thing: the only honourable and courageous act that Boris Johnson did do was to provide Manpads to Ukraine immediately, and the UK has been one of Ukraine’s staunchest allies. The policy toward Ukraine will continue under Kier Starmer should Labour win.
Stories we’re following…
Death toll of Russia's June 28 attack on Dnipro rises to 2. Russian troops carried out a missile attack on the city of Dnipro on June 28, damaging a nine-story building. At least 12 were wounded, the authorities reported.
Russian attack on the central part of the Kherson injures 5 civilians, Governor Oleksandr Prokudin reported.
4 people injured in Russian FAB-500 bomb attack on Kharkiv on July 2, Kharkiv Oblast Prosecutor's Office reported, citing preliminary information.
Russian attack on Nikopol kills 4, injures 10 on July 2, regional Governor Serhii Lysak reported citing preliminary information.
Ukrenergo: Energy situation in Ukraine expected to improve in August. The strain on the country's energy infrastructure will be alleviated after repairs at some nuclear power units are completed, which will provide more available capacity, while changes in the weather are also expected to help, according to Kudrytskyi, Volodymyr Kudrytskyi, the head of Ukraine's state grid operator Ukrenergo, said on July 1.
Ukrainian writer-turned-soldier Aseyev suffers shrapnel injuries. "A miracle happened to me again. This piece of shrapnel entered my neck, missed the artery, and got stuck in soft tissue," Stanislav Aseyev wrote on X.
A Briton who founded a charity supporting Ukrainian soldiers has died while fighting Russian forces, his organisation has said. Peter Fouché set up Project Konstantin, which provides supplies such as drones and food to Ukrainian soldiers, evacuates civilians and delivers humanitarian aid to conflict zones near the frontline. Fouché had previously helped to build a field hospital in Kyiv before he founded Project Konstantin and later enlisted as a contracted soldier with the armed forces of Ukraine, according to the charity’s website.
E-Stories featured the video below in the dead of winter when aid from Ukraine’s allies was scant and blocked in the US Congress. I followed his account and watched as he worked tirelessly for the Ukraine forces. Rest in Peace.
Combat Situation Update
Active Russia-Ukraine front line has expanded, Syrskyi says. The active Russia-Ukraine front line has recently expanded as intense fighting continues in the areas of Pokrovsk and Toretsk, Ukraine's Chief Commander Oleksandr Syrskyi said on July 2.
"If Russia tries to expand the current front, Ukraine will be allowed to fire at a greater distance," US Assistant Secretary of State for European Affairs James O'Brien said. Currently, the US is limiting the use of American weapons on Russian territory to within 100 kilometers of the border with Ukraine.
Mass fire breaks out in Russia's Kursk Oblast, authorities say. Alexei Smirnov, the acting governor of Kursk Oblast, claimed that the fire has been contained, and that there are at least 60 first responders at the scene fighting the blaze.
The port in Novorossiysk, where Russia hides its naval fleet, was attacked by naval drones overnight on Jul 2. Locals reported hearing explosions and sirens, and authorities have banned staying near the coast. on FIRMS data, strong fire(s) were noticed.
Ukraine hit ammunition depot in Russian-occupied Crimea, Air Force confirms. Air Force Commander Mykola Oleshchuk's statement comes after news about explosions on July 1 in Balaklava, a municipal district of the city of Sevastopol.
Explosions rock occupied Crimea, smoke over Balaklava reported. Explosions were heard in Balaklava, a settlement in the city of Sevastopol, in occupied Crimea after an air raid alert went off on July 1, the Telegram channel Crimean Wind reported. Russian proxy Mikhail Razvozhayev claimed that four air targets were destroyed, "but the wreckage fell in the coastal zone."
Ukraine is turning to its prisoner population to help address battlefield shortages as Russian continues to build up forces in eastern Ukraine. More than 3,000 prisoners have been released on parole and assigned to military units after such recruitment was approved by parliament in a controversial mobilisation bill last month, Ukrainian deputy justice minister Olena Vysotska told the Associated Press.
Ukraine should be allowed to strike ‘valid military targets’ in Russia, US House Intelligence Committee chair says. Ukraine should be allowed to strike "valid military targets" in Russia, Mike Turner, chair of the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence and a Republican congressman from Ohio, said in Kyiv on July 1.
The first F-16s will arrive this month, according to Ivchenko, a member of the Verkhovna Rada's Committee on National Security. He added, "I think initially they will be used to defend against enemy missiles, rather than targeting locations within Russia."
Politico: Democrats urge Pentagon to train more Ukrainian F-16 pilots. House Democrats say in a letter obtained by Politico that Kyiv "will have more F-16 aircraft than they will have qualified pilots to fly them by the end of the year," which "threatens to undermine the strategic advantages" that these aircraft can provide to Ukraine.
Ukraine's defense of Kharkiv 'unconditional success,' says ex-Polish defense minister. In an interview with Ukrinform, Janusz Onyszkiewicz said it raised hopes that Moscow's forces would not launch another offensive in northern Ukraine, including an attack from the territory of Belarus.
For the first time, the Belarusian army was seen with Iranian-made "Shahed-136/Geran-2" kamikaze drones, supplied by Russia. These drones were showcased at today's parade in Minsk and have been named "Kochevnik" in the Belarusian military.
Behind the Lines
Update: Turkey, Romania, Bulgaria start Black Sea demining operations to foster Ukraine exports. Under the Turkish-led deal, the three countries will oversee efforts to clear mines that have been drifting in the Black Sea since the start of Russia's all-out war. Other NATO members are not involved in the initiative.
Source: Ukrainian cyberattack leaves at least 250,000 consumers without connection in Russian-occupied territories. A May attack reportedly affected both the networks of consumers and the networks of operators that used the impacted infrastructure on Russian-occupied territories. Representatives of Russian providers call it "the most powerful DDoS attack they have ever experienced," a military intelligence source told the Kyiv Independent.
Warsaw, Berlin agree to boost defense cooperation, coordination on Ukraine aid. Germany and Poland have reaffirmed their security cooperation in a joint action plan, Reuters reported on July 2.
Finland approves defense pact with US. Spurred by Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Finland entered NATO in April 2023, extending the NATO-Russian border by roughly 1,340 kilometers (830 miles).
Orbán urged Zelensky during his first trip to Kyiv to consider a ceasefire along the war’s current front line. Speaking to journalists after the two leaders met, Orbán said he believes his proposal would “provide a chance to speed up peace talks” and that he was grateful for Zelensky’s “honest answers.” Zelensky did not acknowledge the suggestion in his public statements but noted that Orbán signed the joint communiqué of the Ukraine peace summit held in Switzerland last month. Orbán has been a vocal critic of the E.U.’s assistance to Ukraine.
Chinese and Russian companies are developing an attack drone similar to an Iranian model deployed in Ukraine, a sign that Beijing may be edging closer to providing the sort of lethal aid that western officials have warned against.
Bloomberg: Russian submarines carried out ‘unprecedented’ operations near Irish Sea: Russian attack submarines have carried out missions around the Irish Sea twice in the last two years. The first case reportedly occurred about 18 months ago, while the second one took place “more recently.” The sources said the U.S. is aware of the incidents, which Bloomberg said “forced the UK military to take steps to protect British and Irish waters.”
"Soviet Union's Red Banner Raised on Top of Norwegian Mountain. A state-owned Russian mining company (Arcticugol) has recently raised at least three large 3x5m Soviet flags on the Norwegian island of Svalbard, and they will continue with this provocation according to the CEO of the russian mining company, which are allowed to operate on Svalbard according to a declaration from 1920. Worth noticing, that Svalbard is, according to international law, sovereign Norwegian territory..." - Jens Christian Jensen.
Lithuania issues protest, summons representatives after Russian aircraft enters airspace. Lithuania has submitted a diplomatic protest and has summoned diplomatic representatives from Russia's embassy in Vilnius after a Russian civilian aircraft entered the country's airspace without permission, Lithuania's Foreign Ministry said on July 2.
Meanwhile in Russia
Russia starts to chair UN Security Council in July, Ukraine not on agenda. Each of the 15 members of the UN Security Council, including Russia, holds the presidency for a month. Russia last chaired the organization in April 2023.
Russia not elected to one of UN principal organs, Kuleba says. "This vote once again demonstrates that Russia can hit the wall as many times as it wants, but the outcome will remain the same: international criminals are not welcome in international bodies," Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba wrote.
World Bank upgrades Russia from ‘upper-middle-income’ to ‘high-income’ country: In its upgraded classifications of countries by income level published on Monday, the World Bank upgraded Russia from an “upper-middle-income” to a “high-income” country based on its 2023 GNI per capita of $14,250. The organization defines “high-income” countries as ones with a GNI per capita higher than $14,005. The Bank noted that Russia’s economic activity last year was “influenced by a large increase in military related activity” and got a boost from rebounds in trade, the financial sector, and construction. Ukraine, which had a GNI per capita of $5,070 in 2023, was upgraded from a “lower-middle-income” country to an “upper-middle-income” country.
GPB International, a subsidiary of Russia’s Gazprombank, has been operating in Luxembourg for over a decade. It survived the sanctions imposed on Russia for annexing Crimea, and the full-scale invasion of Ukraine brought the bank record profits. Meduza special correspondent Margarita Liutova explains how GPB International has managed to keep operations going while Russia is under ever-tightening Western sanctions.
Xi, Putin to participate in Shanghai Cooperation Organization meeting in Astana. U.N. Secretary General Antonio Guterres, who skipped Ukraine's peace summit in June, is expected to participate in the event in Astana as well, the U.N. in Kazakhstan reported on X.
Financial Times: “By some estimates, at least 10,000 members of the party are studying or working in the US. This is a small fraction of its 5.4mn Chinese diaspora but many are in top roles at leading universities and corporations in the technology and finance sectors.”
Document reveals why Russia keeps accidentally bombing itself, WP reports. A document obtained by the Washington Post (WP) suggests Russia dropped glide bombs on its own territory nearly 40 times in one year, most likely due to malfunctioning guidance systems, the outlet reported on July 1.
Moscow court orders arrest of Ukraine's former PM, ex-ministers in absentia. A Moscow court on July 2 ordered the arrest in absentia of Ukraine's former Prime Minister Volodymyr Groysman, former Foreign Minister Pavlo Klimkin, former Finance Minister Oleksandr Shlapak, and Ihor Dovhan, the head of Western Operational Command of Ukraine's Ground Forces.
Allied Support
US to announce $2.3 billion military aid package to Ukraine 'soon,' Pentagon says. U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said that the package will include air defense missiles, anti-tank weapons "and other critical munitions from U.S. stockpiles," Voice of America reported.
'More news' on air defense for Ukraine may come ahead of NATO summit, Blinken says. Ukraine is expected to get "more news" on air defense capabilities before the upcoming NATO summit in Washington, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on July 1.
NATO allies have agreed to fund military aid for Ukraine with $43 billion next year, one week before the alliance's leaders are set to meet in Washington. NATO leaders will sign off on the pledge next week.
The Wall Street Journal: NATO is planning a range of measures to safeguard the future of its assistance to Ukraine. In addition to stationing a senior civilian official in Kyiv, the bloc will reportedly establish a new command center in Wiesbaden, Germany, that will oversee the supply of military equipment to Ukraine as well as training for Ukrainian soldiers. Former U.S. Ambassador to NATO Ivo Daalder said the changes are meant, among other things, to “Trump-proof” NATO's aid to Ukraine.
Christiane Amanpour interviews Evelyn Farkas regarding NATO:
NATO will request "additional steps" from Kyiv before progressing with membership talks, according to a senior US State Department official. This position will be outlined in the NATO communique at the annual summit on July 9. While recognizing Ukraine's reform efforts over the past two years, the official emphasized the need for further steps, particularly in anti-corruption, which remains a priority for many NATO members.
Netherlands completes export license for 24 F-16s, jets to reach Ukraine 'soon.' The Dutch defense minister did not disclose the exact date or other delivery details, citing "operational security" concerns.
Politico: Hundreds of candidates from Macron’s camp and the left-wing alliance withdraw in an effort to keep the National Rally out.
The chances of an outright victory for the far right in the dramatic French election fell on Tuesday, as centrist and left-wing candidates reluctantly banded together to try to stop Marine Le Pen’s National Rally from taking power for the first time.
At least 200 candidates from both the left-wing alliance and President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist coalition pulled out of the contest ahead of a crucial deadline, in order to unite behind those remaining contenders with the best chance of beating Le Pen’s nationalists, according to estimates from AFP and Le Monde.
Their decisions could determine the outcome of the second round vote on Sunday — and whether France will have a far-right government for the first time in the modern republic’s history.
According to the Mtavari TV, the US imposed sanctions on high-ranking officials of Georgia, including the Minister of Internal Affairs, the head of the criminal police department and the chief of the patrol police. They will be banned from entering the USA.
Blinken on Georgia's 'foreign agent' law: "We and many other countries have not only expressed our deep concerns about it, especially its passage, we've taken action to manifest those concerns. I think, you're likely to see more of that".
"I think it's clearly antithetical to the European direction that Georgia wants to take, and that clearly the majority of Georgian people want to take"
Sir Ed Davies, head of the Liberal Democrats, on the campaign trail in the UK: Lib Dem leader Sir Ed Davey takes to the water in an inflatable doughnut on a general election campaign visit to the Cotswolds. Among more serious speeches, Davis has participated in a number of fun activities with voters.
More aftershocks from the SCOTUS decision
Although the Manhattan case does not center on Trump’s presidency or official acts, but rather personal activity during his campaign, his lawyers argued that prosecutors built their case partly on evidence from his time in the White House.
New polling data has emerged from the New York Times/Siena College:
A majority of every demographic, geographic and ideological group in the poll — including Black voters and those who said they will still be voting for him — believe Mr. Biden, 81, is too old to be effective.
Tom Nichols: Here's the thing: Could Biden overcome this, like Reagan? Yes, if the thing that happened would never happen again. Once is bad and recoverable, but if it keeps happening - as it likely will - the impression will harden. What are the odds of that? Huge gamble.
