July 15: E-Stories
InUkraine CombatSitRep BehindLines Russia-China InEurope InOtherNews
Catching up…
For a general view of news from various geopolitical threatres, Scott’s EA Worldview is always superb.
Note: We apologize for the delay in publishing Madi Kapparov’s weekly Russian economic sitrep and for the mini version of today’s E-Stories due to my travel exigencies.
Stories we’re following…Russia launched over 1,800 drones on Ukraine in one week, Zelensky says. Over 1,200 glide bombs and 83 missiles of various types were also launched on Ukraine in the past week, President Zelensky said on July 13.
Overnight on Sunday, Russian forces struck a hospital in Sloviansk with a Shahed drone. A kindergarten, several apartment blocks, and private homes were also damaged in the attack.
Zarina Zabrisky—Kherson: “while Russian drone attacks are becoming worse everyday, a Russian Telegram channel close to the military posts sadistic videos like this along with multiple threats to destroy Kherson. This is a terror campaign aimed at forceful displacement; a crime against humanity.”
Combat SituationRussia's summer offensive has fallen 'far short of expectations,' Zelensky says. Moscow's ongoing summer offensive has not reached the Kremlin's expectations as Ukrainian troops continue to thwart Russian attacks on various regions, President Zelensky claimed on July 13.
WSJ: The front line has effectively stalled due to the mass use of FPV drones, reports The Wall Street Journal. Movement in open terrain has become deadly for both Ukrainian and Russian forces. Everything within 20 km of the front is under watch, and the low cost of FPV drones means they’re now even used to target individual soldiers.
Kyiv troops managed to stop the first wave of the Russian offensive, said Dmytro Zhmailo, a Ukrainian military expert Currently, Moscow is trying to fulfill its main objective, the complete capture of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts.
Russia is reinforcing its airbases following Ukraine’s "Spider Web" operation. Satellite images from July 7 show major fortifications at Khalino Airbase—around 10 covered bunkers, 12 uncovered concrete shelters, and 8 new hangars. Similar construction is underway at Saky Airbase in occupied Crimea, with new concrete bunkers visible in July 9 imagery and confirmed by Planet Labs.
Denmark has approved the provision of satellite services to Ukraine’s Armed Forces via the European Defence Agency (EDA), according to the Danish Ministry of Defence.
Behind the LinesPro-Ukrainian partisans destroy car used by Chechen unit in occupied Mariupol, Atesh claims. "We send greetings to the kadyrovtsy," the group wrote, referring to the notoriously ruthless troops named for Chechen strongman Ramzan Kadyrov.
North Korea supplied Russia with 12 million rounds of 152mm shells, South Korean intelligence estimates. The report estimated that North Korea could have provided Russia with around 28,000 containers containing weapons and artillery shells to date.
'The game is about to change' — Republican Senator Graham expects influx of US weapons shipments to Ukraine, ahead of Trump's 'major' announcement. U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham said in an interview with CBS News on July 13 that he expects an influx of U.S. weapons shipments to Ukraine to begin "in the coming days," as U.S. President Donald Trump prepares to make a "major statement" on the war in Ukraine on July 14.
Trump confirms the U.S. will send Patriot systems to Ukraine, with costs covered by other NATO countries. Axios adds that Trump is furious with Putin and will announce a new weapons plan today—including offensive arms and long-range missiles. Putin told Trump on July 3 he aims to fully occupy four Ukrainian regions within 60 days.
During the press conference with Trump and Rutte, Trump said that the US will hit Russia with tariffs if no Ukraine deal reached in 50 days, Trump says. As televised on CNN, Trump said, "We're gonna be doing very severe tariffs if we don't have a deal in 50 days. Tariffs that are about 100%, we call them secondary tariffs".
Nicki Kenyon: “This is weird. Any entity sanctioned under EO 14024 is ALREADY a secondary sanctions risk. There are probably roughly 6,000 sanctioned under that EO. What secondary sanctions is he talking about?”
Special U.S. presidential envoy Keith Kellogg arrived in Ukraine for high-level talks. He was welcomed by head of the presidential office Andriy Yermak. He will be staying the entire week.
Germany confirms talks are underway to provide Ukraine with more than three Patriot systems, with funding help from EU partners. Germany and Norway are expected to cover at least three, with details on delivery and financing still in discussion.
German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius has followed NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte to Washington. He’s set to meet with Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth to discuss arms deliveries for Ukraine and Germany’s role within NATO, according to T-Online.
IWP Fellow Nathalie Vogel: "It’s not in the interest of the US to see Russia prevail in Ukraine, because it sends a message to the Chinese of weakness - that, if the US lets this happen in Ukraine, they will let China do whatever it wants in Taiwan."
Russia is rattled by Trump’s new rhetoric. Putin’s representative Kirill Dmitriev is now calling for a “constructive dialogue” between Moscow and Washington. He wrote that talks would be “more useful than pressure rhetoric,” even decorating the message with peace-themed emojis.
NATO chief Mark Rutte visited Washington on July 14 and held a presser as Trump made his 'major statement' on Russia. Rutte confirmed that Ukraine will receive military equipment from Europe, and then United States will replace that equipment for Europe.
As Trump announced that he was going to apply 100% tariffs on Russia if they do not reach a ceasefire deal within 50 days, it was clear that this gave Russia time to grow its capabilities further, make more money and continue killing Ukrainians. Most major news outlets are billing this as a ‘significant announcement’, but in our view it just serves to waste time and treasure. This is how the Moscow Stock Exchange’s reacted to Trump big announcement:
Kyiv Independent: ‘These were not negotiations’ — Ukraine’s deputy foreign minister on Istanbul talks with Russia.
After five years in New York and earlier experience at Ukraine’s Embassy to the U.S., Kyslytsya has developed a deep understanding of the American political landscape — a vital asset as Ukraine works to keep Washington as its key ally.
“When you go to the Security Council, you don’t just sit with (Russian Ambassador to the UN Vasily) Nebenzya or his crazy deputy — you also have (Russian Foreign Minister Sergey) Lavrov visiting, his deputies coming, and you must not only listen to these toxic, poisonous speeches but also respond to them,” Kyslytsya told the Kyiv Independent in an exclusive interview on July 7.
Kyslytsya argues that the Istanbul meetings, for the most part, couldn’t truly be called negotiations due to Russia’s rigid, ultimatum-like approach.
“First of all, I insist that except for the humanitarian component, there were no negotiations in Istanbul.
Yes, we all arrived in Istanbul — the Ukrainian delegation, the Russian delegation, both delegations were in the same room, we sat opposite each other, but these were not negotiations.
This was a situation where, in the first and second Istanbul meetings, the Russian side presented their ultimatum demands. It wasn’t even a “maximalist” approach in the classical sense where you have a range of options and you aim high to get the maximum.
No — this was a dynamic where you find yourself facing Russians who came with a mandate to dictate an ultimatum. They didn’t even have a mandate to listen to your arguments and seek common ground.
Our mandate had three points: first, ceasefire; second, create conditions for a meeting between the Ukrainian president and the Kremlin dictator; and third, confidence-building measures, which included humanitarian issues, such as prisoner exchanges.
They (Russians) were categorically opposed (to the ceasefire). Both at the first and second meetings, they firmly rejected the possibility of an unconditional ceasefire before a leaders’ meeting.
In this third point, there was at least some conversation — I wouldn’t even call it negotiations, but rather a dialogue. At the first Istanbul meeting, one Russian representative told me: “I can’t leave the room empty-handed. We must at least agree on prisoner exchanges.”
Meanwhile in Russia & China…Reuters: Russia has confiscated assets worth 3.9 trillion roubles, or around $50 billion at current exchange rates, over the past three years, underscoring the scale of the transformation into a "fortress Russia" economic model, the Kommersant newspaper said.
The size of the asset seizures, calculated by the NSP Law Firm, shows the extent of Russia's move from a relatively open economy towards a "fortress" model, Kommersant, one of Russia's most respected newspapers, said. About 1.54 trillion roubles worth of assets have been seized under the law on strategic companies, 1.07 trillion roubles worth seized on corruption grounds, 385 billion roubles on alleged privatisation violations and 621.5 billion roubles due to claims of ineffective management, Kommersant said.
Russia scales up propaganda operations across Africa, Ukrainian intelligence says. By the end of the year, Russia Today plans to launch broadcasting in Amharic for an audience in Ethiopia, HUR said.
Nexta: A family moved from Texas to Russia — now the father is dying for Putin The Huffmans, a family of video bloggers from Texas with three small children, moved to Russia, praising its “traditional values” and a life “free from Western propaganda.” The father was promised Russian citizenship and a safe rear-line job — supposedly as a welder. But just three weeks after signing the contract, he was shipped off to the front line in Ukraine. The Huffmans’ story is yet another reminder: in Putin’s Russia, every promise ends in a trench.
Russian importers have encountered another problem with Kazakhstan: since mid-June, the time it takes for cargo to cross the border with Kazakhstan has increased significantly due to queues and the introduction of enhanced checks by the Kazakh side, according to employees of transport and foreign trade companies. According to them, before this, crossing the border took no more than an hour, but now a truck or railcar can easily stand at the checkpoint for 10 days or even more. In June-July, delivery times from Kazakhstan, through which a large flow of parallel imports is currently going, increased by 14-40 days, said Vladimir Letnikov, head of the special projects department at A2 Fordwarding. (Mo: Kazakhstan is not the only country slowing down exports to Russia: most Central Asian countries have followed suit. Our contacts in Georgia report that exports to Russia have not slowed down.)
Falling for disinformation: in an E-Stories post on June 17, I published a photo of a Ukrainian POW, Oleksandr Shestovsky, posing with his wife, Elena. It was a before and after shot. I was going to publish the photo you see here below in the TVP YouTube card, and then held off. In conversation with my colleagues, these pictures came up, and that the Russians were running a campaign with fake Ukrainian POW before and after shots with family members. The deception campaign is meant to denigrate Ukrainian POWs. See the story from 1:38 minutes on.
OCCRP: The son of a top Russian defense official allegedly laundered millions through luxury real estate purchases in Spain using funds linked to the Troika Laundromat scheme, Spanish police say. Officers arrested Dmitry Artyakov on Saturday.
In Europe…Euromaidan Press: NATO warns commercial aviation crashes from Russian GPS jamming could trigger military retaliation. Officials say casualties would be treated as "deliberate escalation" - potentially leading to strikes on Kaliningrad sites or increased weapons to Ukraine."
UK Defence Journal: Britain and France have publicly committed for the first time to coordinating their independent nuclear deterrents in response to extreme threats, signalling a new phase in bilateral and NATO nuclear strategy.
The joint declaration, signed during President Emmanuel Macron’s state visit to London, affirms that the UK and France maintain sovereign nuclear arsenals but are now prepared to align them in the event of a major crisis. It states unequivocally that “any extreme threat to Europe would prompt a response by both nations.”
This is the most explicit public statement yet of the two countries’ willingness to coordinate nuclear posture and response. Until now, both have emphasised independence as the foundation of credible deterrence. The change reflects growing concern about Russia’s nuclear rhetoric and wider instability in the Euro-Atlantic region.
Politico EU: Rome and Athens have identified Turkish and Russian involvement in a growing security threat from North Africa. Migrant flows from Libya are spiking again, at a time Rome is increasingly concerned about Russia’s growing influence in the unstable North African nation, wielded through arms supplies and a potential new naval base in the northeastern port of Tobruk.
Athens has also sent two warships to conduct patrols off Libya in response to the migration surge and its strategic concerns that its archrival, Turkey, is working with the Libyans to carve up the Mediterranean into maritime zones for energy exploration. The zones claim waters just south of the Greek island of Crete, while Athens deems them illegal under international maritime law.
Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani has described Libya as “an emergency that Europe must address together,” but a European attempt to make some diplomatic headway last week degenerated into farce.
“Russia’s role in Libya continues to expand, using it as the central node in its African strategy,” warned one EU diplomat who follows the dossier closely. The diplomat added that a politically connected smuggling network in Libya was supporting Russia’s strategic efforts, helping Moscow to circumvent sanctions and to weaponize migration.
Italy and Greece know, however, that tackling a problem as complex as Libya — a country more than three times the size of Spain — will require support from big allies such as the U.S. and France.
United24: At the Croatia summit, 13 countries—Ukraine, Croatia, Moldova, Montenegro, Albania, North Macedonia, Romania, Slovenia, Greece, Kosovo, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Turkey—backed Ukraine’s NATO membership, calling it the best security option and pledging deeper support, tougher sanctions on Russia, and aid for Ukraine’s recovery.
Will the EU impose tariffs on US products? Speaking at a press conference on Sunday, EU Commission President von der Leyen said negotiations with Washington were underway after the White House confirmed it would hike tariffs on imports from the EU starting Aug. 1.
“We will therefore also extend the suspension of our countermeasures till early August and at the same time we will continue to prepare further countermeasures so we are always prepared,” she said.
Reuters: An Italian court has placed LVMH group's high-end Italian cashmere firm Loro Piana under judicial administration for a year after allegedly uncovering worker abuse inside its supply chain, in the latest in a string of cases that have tainted the image of Italy's luxury brands.
Mo’s fun fact: Loro Piano dresses Vladimir Putin. Another interesting tidbit is that the LVMH Group owns an exclusive hotel in the Tuscan countryside where Steve Witkoff stays at when he’s in Italy to talk to various figures away from the eyes of the press.
Politico: German far right’s strategy for seizing power: Foment US-style polarization. Germany’s far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party has a simple plan for gaining power: use the far left as a foil and deepen the country’s partisan divisions.
“Our goal is to create a situation in which the political divide no longer runs between the AfD and the other political currents, but rather one in which a bourgeois-conservative camp and a radicalizing left-wing camp face each other, comparable to the situation in the U.S.,” reads an internal party paper, seen by POLITICO. The aim, according to the strategy, is to create a “duel between two irreconcilably opposed camps.”
The AfD’s most urgent political objective is finding a way to knock down the firewall by shedding its taboo status and convincing conservatives and other voters that AfD politicians should no longer be blocked from entering the halls of power because they are seen as too extreme.
It’s no surprise that she’d seek inspiration from the U.S. AfD politicians applauded U.S. Vice President JD Vance’s depiction of the firewall, in a speech in Munich earlier this year, as anti-democratic and a way of “running in fear” of voters.
Von Storch has maintained contacts to allies of the Trump administration. She and her husband attended U.S. President Donald Trump’s inauguration and have met with Steve Bannon, a longtime Trump ally and leading figure in the MAGA movement.
New Caledonia to be declared a state in ‘historic’ agreement – but will remain French. France has announced a “historic” accord with New Caledonia in which the overseas territory, rocked by deadly separatist violence last year, would remain French but be declared a new state.
“A State of New Caledonia within the Republic: it’s a bet on trust,” the French president, Emmanuel Macron, posted on X on Saturday, hailing a “historic” agreement.
Receiving the signatories later, the president said that “after two agreements and three referendums, New Caledonia, through what you have signed, is opening a new chapter in its future in a peaceful relationship with France”.
As part of the agreement, New Caledonia residents will in future only be allowed to vote after having lived 10 years on the archipelago.
Mo: A cursory glance at a map will tell you that Caledonia is important for its geostrategic position off the coast of Australia. Our hope is that it doesn’t fall under Chinese influence, which has been the fate of other such nations in the Pacific.
Military.Com: Military Watching Chinese Naval Ship near Hawaii. The U.S. military watched a Chinese naval vessel operating off the coast of Hawaii last week.
On Wednesday, a spokesperson for the Oahu-based U.S. Indo-Pacific Command confirmed that it is “monitoring a (Chinese People’s Liberation Army ) vessel which was operating in international waters in the vicinity of Hawaii.”
U.S. officials previously have alluded to Chinese intelligence gathering at sea near Hawaii, and also have acknowledged specific instances of Russian naval forces operating near the Hawaiian Islands. Russian operations have included several instances of spy ships sailing near the islands and a large exercise in 2021 that the Russian Pacific Fleet called its largest since the end of the Cold War.
China has worked to bring island nations into its Belt and Road Initiative, a series of infrastructure projects funded by Beijing to promote trade with China. Some analysts have charged that many of these projects have “dual use ” applications that not only promote commerce, but potentially set up areas for Chinese military and intelligence to operate in the future.
American naval ships also have continually conducted operations in the vicinity of China. That includes routine “freedom of navigation ” operations in South China Sea, a busy waterway that more than a third of all international trade moves through and that Beijing claims as its exclusive territory. Tensions have been on the rise in the region as neighboring countries clash with China over territorial and navigation rights.
In other news…BBC News: Canadian Armed Forces members plotted 'anti-government militia', police say. Four men, including two members of the Canadian Armed Forces, are facing charges in Canada over an alleged plot to create an "anti-government militia" and "forcibly" seize land, the Royal Canadian Mounted Police (RCMP) says.
Police say three of the suspects took part in military-style training, shooting exercises and scouting operations in the Québec City area as part of their alleged plot.
The group are also alleged to have stored explosive devices, dozens of firearms and thousands of rounds of ammunition, all of which were seized by the RCMP.
All four have been arrested and are due to appear in Québec City court on Tuesday, police said.
The men charged include Marc-Aurèle Chabot, 24, and Raphaël Lagacé, 25, both from Québec City, as well as Simon Angers-Audet, 24, of Neuville.
The trio are accused of taking "concrete actions to facilitate terrorist activity," the RCMP said in its news release.
Reuters: Unusually large quantities of antimony - a metal used in batteries, chips and flame retardants - have poured into the United States from Thailand and Mexico since China barred US shipments last year, according to customs and shipping records, which show at least one Chinese-owned company is involved in the trade.
E&E News: A DOGE representative told the chair and top staff of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission that the agency will be expected to give “rubber stamp” approval to new reactors tested by the departments of Energy or Defense, according to three people with knowledge of a May meeting where the message was delivered.
The three people said Adam Blake, detailed to the NRC by the Department of Government Efficiency, described a new regulatory approach by NRC that would expedite nuclear safety assessments.
“DOE, DOD would approve stuff, and then NRC would be expected to just kind of rubber-stamp it,” said one of the three people, who were all granted anonymity because of the sensitivity of the issue.
The US Justice Department unit charged with defending against legal challenges to signature Trump administration policies - such as restricting birthright citizenship and slashing funding to Harvard University - has lost nearly two-thirds of its staff, according to a list seen by Reuters.
WaPo—MAGA losing it: MAGA leaders are lashing out at President Donald Trump over Jeffrey Epstein.
Anger is mounting over the administration’s handling of files related to the dead sex offender. This weekend, some Trump supporters delivered a warning. Sunday was the anniversary of the Trump assassination attempt last year in Pennsylvania. The motive of the 20-year-old gunman remains a mystery. Trump was booed and cheered at a soccer final yesterday. Trump is continuing his support for Pam Bondi amidst pushback from Dan Bongino and heavy criticism from his MAGA base.