July 17: E-Stories
InUkraine CombatSitRep BehindLines Russia-China InEurope InOtherNews
Catching up…
For a general view of news from various geopolitical threatres, Scott’s EA Worldview is always superb.
Let’s get going…
Stories we’re following…While Trump says Ukraine should not hit Moscow, Putin keeps attacking Kyiv and other large Ukrainian cities. Another massive attack overnight. Shot down: 343/400 Shahed (255) and other type drones; 0/1 Iskander-M ballistic missile, and; 1 missile and 57 UAVs were recorded hitting 12 locations.
A Russian drone struck a 9-story residential building overnight in Kramatorsk. Civilian infrastructure once again targeted, business as usual for Russians.
At least 2 people have been killed and 27 wounded in a Russian strike on central Dobropillia, according to Donetsk regional authorities. Rescue workers are battling fires and clearing debris to confirm the full toll. Russia continues targeting civilians.
Vinnytsia came under a massive attack by 28 Shahed drones overnight, sparking fires across the city. Seven people were injured, including two in serious condition. Strikes hit industrial infrastructure and damaged four residential buildings.
Over the night, russia bombed a healthcare facility in the Sumy region, injuring a child there. Targeting hospitals, doctors, and first responders is russia's terrorist state policy.
At night, Russia shelled Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, and Odesa regions. The attack involved an Iskander-M ballistic missile and 400 UAVs, about 255 of which were Shahed strike drones. Fifteen people were injured, including one child.
Egils Helmanis, mayor of Ogre, Latvia, was wounded by Russian shelling while delivering aid to Ukrainian forces. This marks his latest mission since 2022, during which he brought around 20 vehicles. Details of the attack remain limited, but his condition is stable.
Ukraine Economy Minister Yuliia Svyrydenko for Kyiv Independent: Previously mineral deal focused on critical raw materials and energy. At the G7 we discussed using the Ukraine investment fund for defense projects.
Combat SituationISW: Russian President Vladimir Putin's theory of victory continues to drive his unwillingness to compromise on his pre-war demand for Ukraine's capitulation.
Ukrainian forces recently advanced in northern Sumy Oblast. Russian forces recently advanced near Kupyansk, Borova, and Toretsk.
Ukrainian forces have advanced further into Kindrativka, now pushing out remaining Russian troops from the village in Sumy region. A small but strategic gain right on the border.
A pair of JDAM-ER bombs struck a Russian command post in the village of Tetkino, Kursk region.
Noel Report: “It’s not 17 Patriot systems—it's 17 pieces of equipment, likely part of three full batteries”, explains Anatolii Khrapchynskyi, deputy director of an EW manufacturing firm. “There are only 96 Patriot systems worldwide, 36 in Europe. Large-scale transfers to Ukraine are unlikely,” he said.
Ukrainian foreign minister Andrii Sybiha urged the EU to adopt further sanctions against Moscow as he rejected Russian accusations that Kyiv didn’t want to progress peace talks and reiterated that Kyiv was ready to hold them anytime.
“Patriot missiles are already being shipped to Ukraine under the new deal with NATO countries”, Trump announced. He said Germany is making the first deliveries: “They’re coming from Germany, and Germany will replenish them. In every case, the United States will be fully reimbursed. NATO and the EU will cover the costs—some directly, some through individual EU nations.”
Behind the LinesDenmark and Sweden have confirmed their support for financing Patriot missile systems for Ukraine, following Trump’s announcement that the EU would cover the costs. Danish FM Lars Lokke Rasmussen said the U.S. appears to be “on the right side” and confirmed Denmark will “do its part.” Swedish DM Pål Jonson echoed that, saying Sweden “will contribute.”
Patriot-owning countries to meet to coordinate aid for Ukraine next week - reports. Separately, Reuters reported that a meeting of Patriot owner nations and Ukraine donors, aiming to find additional Patriot air defence batteries for Kyiv and chaired by Nato’s top military commander could take place Wednesday next week.
US-Ukraine minerals fund looks for manager as critical resources deal advances. The U.S. government’s development finance agency has started looking for a company to manage a joint U.S.-Ukraine investment fund, Ukraine’s Economy Ministry said July 15.
Russia just smuggled a 110-ton Austrian forging machine — essential for shaping large-caliber artillery barrels with high precision — via a Spanish company that rerouted it through a Hong Kong-registered shell firm. The machine was sold for $1.3M and cleared by Russian customs. Despite EU sanctions, Moscow continues to acquire critical defense tech by laundering shipments through complex networks in Europe and Asia. Russia lacks the capacity to produce such machinery domestically.
Meanwhile in Russia & China…The International Criminal Court in The Hague, which is investigating Russian war crimes in Ukraine, has received a request to issue arrest warrants for key officials of Vladimir Putin's economic team - the head of the Central Bank Elvira Nabiullina and Finance Minister Anton Siluanov.
According to the Financial Times , the petition to the ICC, which has already issued warrants for Putin himself, the Commissioner for Children's Rights Maria Lvova-Belova and four high-ranking Russian generals, was filed by the NGO LexCollective, and was prepared with the participation of civil society organizations B4Ukraine and the Ukrainian Legal Advisory Group.
The authors of the statement call on the ICC to expand the investigation of Russian crimes to include the financial system, which is used to establish control over the seized territories.
The statement names three Russian banks - the defense PSB, the MRB bank and the CMRBank. In them, residents of Donbass and other occupied territories were offered to open accounts after the new "authorities" banned the circulation of the Ukrainian hryvnia and forced people to convert money into rubles.
The war in Ukraine has begun to influence Russiaʼs crime rates, and the situation promises to grow worse in the coming years, including more violent crimes. This is the conclusion presented in a recent article by Villiy Maslov, an associate professor at the Internal Affairs Ministryʼs Ural Law Institute in Yekaterinburg. The legal paper represents “a rare instance of an insider within the system analyzing the warʼs criminal ramifications,” writes the BBCʼs Russian Service, which first reported the article. Meduza reviews Maslovʼs findings.
Ben Dubow: Putin’s Perp Walk in the Caucasus
On July 1, the world received a stark reminder of how far gone the era of Russian dominance is, as Azerbaijani police marched into the local offices of Russian state media. It arrested their leaders and other Russians, some badly beaten, were paraded for the cameras. The perp walk of Sputnik executives, broadcast gleefully on Azerbaijani television, marked something unprecedented: a former Soviet republic publicly humiliating Moscow without any apparent fear of consequences. Because there will be no consequences. Russia, the one-time regional hegemon, could only issue meek protests blaming Ukrainian provocateurs.
The journey from feared overlord to impotent bystander began, ironically, at what should have been Putin’s moment of maximum strength. On February 22, 2022, Russia and Azerbaijan signed a “declaration of allied interaction.” Two days later, Russian forces poured into Ukraine, expecting the kind of swift victory that had become Moscow’s calling card. Instead, they sank into a quagmire that drained Russia of much power and credibility.
Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev, a leader who had survived three decades through careful calibration in his dealings with regional powers, recognized the shift, gambling Russian peacekeepers meant to separate Azerbaijan and Armenia would retreat rather than risk confrontation. By September 2023, Azerbaijan had conquered the contested Nagorno-Karabakh region while Russian peacekeepers stood like bystanders at a mugging. Armenia, its appeals for Russian help ignored, suspended its membership in the Russian-led CSTO treaty alliance.
Moscow still courted energy-rich, strategically placed Azerbaijan, but this effort collapsed when Russian air defenses shot down Azerbaijan Airlines Flight 8243 on Christmas Day 2024, killing 38 after the stricken plane was refused permission to land in Southern Russia.
Baku has since shut down a Russian cultural center, accusing it of espionage activities. A Russian MP in response called for Azeris in Russia to “be put through the legal filter. Illegal migration, tax evasion, corporate raids, and other ‘interesting’ activities will come to light soon enough.” Russia then launched a cyber-attack against Azerbaijani media, and Baku responded by ordering the closure of the local branch of the propaganda outlet, RT. [continue reading]
In Moscow, the government-installed billboards inform the public that Baltic nations are not real nations, are run by nationalists, and Kaja Kallas, the former prime minister of Estonia is a "lap dog".
Kyiv Insider: Demand for newly built housing in Russia has plummeted nearly 40% over the past year, as government support for the real estate sector fades and interest rates continue to climb.
According to figures reported by Vedomosti, from July 2024 to July 2025, only 458,727 newly built apartments were sold across the country, with a total floor area of 21.9 million square meters. That marks a 38.7% drop in the number of units sold and a 37.2% decline in total space compared to the previous 12-month period.
Analysts attribute the steep fall to the rollback of key state programs that had previously helped sustain the housing market during years of economic stagnation and sanctions. In particular, the cancellation of the government-subsidized mortgage program in 2024 removed one of the few remaining mechanisms keeping buyer demand afloat.
“The decline was expected,” said one market expert. “The state sharply reduced its involvement in housing support — first by canceling the preferential mortgage, and then by tightening access to family mortgage programs. When you combine that with a rising key interest rate, it becomes harder and more expensive for people to borrow.”
NYT: China’s economy grew at a steady pace this spring, according to official figures, despite President Trump’s steep tariffs.
Part of China’s resilience rests in investments in factories and big projects like high-speed rail lines and a continual flood of global exports. The economy also got a boost, as buyers, anticipating tariffs, ramped up their orders in the first three months of the year.
If China’s current pace of growth continues, the country’s economy will expand at an annual rate of about 4.1 percent — only slightly slower than the growth in the first three months of this year.
Three months after shutting down Nvidia’s A.I. chip sales to China, the Trump administration has reversed course and will allow Chinese tech companies to restart purchases of Nvidia’s chips.
In Europe…The European Commission has proposed a €100 billion fund for Ukraine within the EU’s long-term budget for 2028–2034. Ursula von der Leyen announced the plan in Brussels, marking a massive financial commitment to Ukraine’s recovery and integration. In tomorrow’s E-Stories I’ll include information about the EU budget that may come in at 2T euro. For now some information about the defence aspects.
Politico: Along with Czechia and Italy, France will not participate in Trump’s proposed scheme for Europeans to buy American weapons for Ukraine, Politico reports. Two French officials said Paris is opting out because President Macron insists Europe should build up its own defense industry by prioritizing local procurement.
'Unbearable' — EU's Kallas raises alarm over Russia's escalating chemical warfare in Ukraine.
"Again, it shows that Russia wants to cause as much pain and suffering as possible so that Ukraine would surrender," top EU diplomat Kaja Kallas said at a press conference during a meeting of EU foreign ministers in Brussels. "It is really unbearable," she added."
Toiu Oana: “Had a timely meeting today with NATO Deputy Secretary General Radmila Šekerinska. I mentioned Romania’s contribution to the security of NATO’s Eastern Flank and underlined the importance of keeping the Black Sea security high on NATO’s agenda.”
Radmila thanked Romania for our unwavering commitment and contributions in the region. We welcomed yesterday’s announcement by President Trump and SecGen Rutte in Washington for the increased support for Ukraine. Ukraine’s defence is Europe’s defence and the two cannot be separated. We need to achieve a lasting peace at our borders. We also discussed NATO’s role in tackling the ongoing hybrid threats.
France’s opposition parties have reacted furiously to the austerity budget outlined by prime minister François Bayrou, threatening to topple his minority government at the first opportunity this autumn unless he revises his proposals.
“The only possible prospect is a vote of no confidence,” said the Socialist party (PS) leader, Olivier Faure, denouncing “a series of violent measures” that amounted “not to a recovery plan but to the outright destruction of France’s social model”.
Marine Le Pen of the far-right National Rally (RN), the largest single party in parliament, said the government “prefers to turn on the French people rather than tackle waste.”
Even Laurent Wauquiez of the centre-right Les Républicains (LR), who mostly back the government, criticised budget “shortcomings” – including insufficent spending cuts – which he said the party would address in talks with Bayrou over the summer.
President Emmanuel Macron’s decision to call a snap election last year delivered a hung parliament in which Bayrou does not have the votes to pass his budget, expected to be presented to parliament in October, without opposition support.
DW: Russia has been handing out visas to "anti-Woke" Westerners, with the Kremlin reportedly using them as influencers to fuel its propaganda machine.
The Cipher Brief: Senior British police officials report a fivefold increase in hostile state activity by Russia, China and Iran since the 2017 poisoning of Russian double agent Sergei Skripal in Salisbury. Dominic Murphy, head of London’s Counter Terrorism Command, said the complexity and volume of “threat-to-life operations”by these three states, including attacks and kidnappings, has outpaced predictions. Vicki Evans, Senior National Coordinator for UK Counter Terrorism Policing, said proxies — including criminals and even teenagers — carry out most of this activity. Experts have spoken to The Cipher Brief about the “gray-zone” threats from hostile states, with the latest British warning underscoring the escalating aggression.
The Cipher Brief: Thousands of Afghans were secretly evacuated to the UK after a 2021 Ministry of Defense data breach exposed the identities of Afghans who worked with British forces.
The leak went undetected until August 2023. An estimated 100,000 people — including family members of Afghan staff — were put at risk of Taliban reprisal, prompting the covert relocation effort. Around 4,500 Afghans affected by the leak have already been moved to Britain under the secret scheme, with thousands more who relocated via other channels. A first-ever “super-injunction” that gagged the press on reporting about the leak was lifted today. The revelation underscores the long shadow of the withdrawal from Afghanistan and Taliban takeover, and serves as a reminder of how devastating cybersecurity lapses can prove to be.
In Full: Statement from Defence Secretary John Healey on Afghan resettlement.
EU-US trade agreement still up in the air: The meetings come after Trump blew up an agreement in principle both parties had come to last week.
After starting last week praising the EU for turning from “nasty” to “nice” expectations were high that he would sign off on the three page framework deal.
But on Saturday he announced the 10% tariffs he has currently imposed on EU imports would jump to 30% after 1 August if it didn’t concede more.
The EU had worked on the assumption, that just as UK prime minister Keir Starmer had done, it would be able to concede a Trump-term 10% tariff rate (up from an average of 2.5%) in exchange for relief from punitive tariffs on cars and steel.
Overnight Trump has once again threatened to impose tariffs on pharma imports, warning he would likely introduce a low tariff at the end of the month to encourage US multinationals operating abroad including Ireland to repatriate manufacturing.EU trade commissioner Maroš Šefčovič travelled to DC on Wednesday for talks with US commerce secretary Howard Lutnick and US trade representative Jamieson Greer. The meetings come as part of the EU’s push to get an agreement with the US on tariffs before 1 August.
Max Coccia: The Gergiev System, and Italy as a European Piggy Bank of Russian Cultural Power
Behind the mask of the orchestra conductor, solemnly invited by Vincenzo De Luca, a parallel reality operates, made up of shady foundations, shell companies, and invisible assets. Putin's friend has built a sophisticated mechanism in our country that culturally projects the Kremlin's imperialism.
It is between Venice, Milan, Rome, and especially the Amalfi Coast, that the director has structured his personal and operational piggy bank. A system that uses culture as a screen and art as a strategic vector to launder capital, move funds, and finance Russian propaganda under the reassuring guise of music.
Thanks to cross-investigative work, we are able to document how Gergiev created a dense network of companies in Italy—registered by front men and completely invisible to tax oversight—that manage real estate assets worth over one hundred million euros. The beating heart of this opaque empire is an estate in Punta San Lorenzo, in the municipality of Massa Lubrense, overlooking the Sorrento coast and inaccessible on foot. This monumental property, complete with a manor house, a Saracen tower, and archaeological ruins, is home to permanent residents of men linked to the former Russian military, performing surveillance, protection, and logistics functions.
The property, formally registered to Commercio Edilizio Srl, is only the first layer. This entity is surrounded by at least a dozen satellite companies, all linked to Gergiev, operating in Campania, Lazio, and Lombardy. These legal entities operate in real estate, culture, music, artistic representation, and logistics. Their common trait is their opacity, and they all converge within an ecosystem of Russian foundations, associations, and cultural centers active in Italy. [continue reading]
In other news…On a visit to China, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese met with Xi Jinping, China’s top leader, pushing for even deeper ties while being under pressure from the U.S.
SBC News: Security guards and men in plain clothes blocked Australian journalists from leaving a tourist attraction in Beijing.
July 15: reporters from Australia travelled with an Australian embassy escort and written permission to film piece to camera elements for stories on Anthony Albanese's meeting with China’s Xi Jinping in Beijing.
While SBS, ABC, Sky News, Channel Nine, and Channel 7 crews were filming their content near the Bell and Drum Towers — iconic historical structures and popular tourist attractions in the city, local authorities approached with questions about whether they had the correct permissions.
About eight security guards and men in plain clothes — state security agents? — surrounded the group, stating they had to stay until police arrived and that they would need to hand over the footage they had collected.
A diplomat from Australia's embassy managed to speak to the local authorities, but they continued to follow and encircle the group as it moved towards the bus. The Australian journalists were surrounded and told they were not allowed to leave, before the Chinese security personnel began taking photos of the visiting press and demanding to take their camera equipment.
The delegation was later allowed to board a bus and leave after the security personnel stepped aside following further interventions from diplomats.
Nexta: Indonesia has given the U.S. full access to its market. Trump stated that he had made a “great” trade deal with the Indonesian leadership. “We have full access to Indonesia — to everything. As you know, Indonesia has strong positions in copper production, but we will have full access to all sectors, and we won’t pay any tariffs.” The U.S. president also added that goods from Indonesia imported into the U.S. will be subject to a 19% tariff.
Important—heads up: Trump Has Drafted Letter to Fire Fed Chair and Asked Republicans if He Should
President Trump waved a copy of the letter at an Oval Office meeting with House Republicans. Some in his administration have cautioned such a move could be calamitous and have far more expansive fallout than the president appears to anticipate.
Follow up: Trump Denies Plan to Axe Powell After Floating Idea to Lawmakers
President Donald Trump denied he is seeking to remove Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, after raising the idea in a closed-door meeting with congressional Republicans that leaked to the media.
“No, we’re not planning on doing anything,” Trump told reporters on Wednesday. He later added, “I don’t rule out anything, but I think it’s highly unlikely, unless he has to leave for fraud.”
Mo: Trump’s U-Turn looks more like market manipulation or he’s losing his mind.
California National Guard members are being withdrawn from Los Angeles about a month after their deployment, the Pentagon announced Tuesday. The Trump administration mobilized more than 4,000 Guard troops and roughly 700 Marines in response to LA protests over federal immigration raids, despite objections from California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D).
The new ‘scam’: this is the text book case of gaslighting at a masterclass degree.
Axios: The blowback over DOJ's decision led to an intense shouting match in the White House last week between Bondi and the FBI's deputy director, Dan Bongino, as Axios first reported.
After the Bondi-Bongino blowout, a reporter asked whether Bondi had informed Trump that his name was in the Epstein files. Trump has long denied wrongdoing in the case. No evidence has emerged indicating otherwise, but he was friends with Epstein in the 1990s and early 2000s.
On Tuesday, a reporter publicly asked Trump about the rumor that Bondi had told him his name was in Epstein's files.
"No, no. She's given us just a very quick briefing," Trump said at the White House, calling the Epstein files a non-story, old news and even "fake news."
On releasing more Epstein information, Trump told reporters at Joint Base Andrews, Md.: "He's dead for a long time. He was never a big factor in terms of life. ... It's pretty boring stuff. It's sordid, but it's boring. ... Anything that's credible, I would say: Let them have it."
Vinnytsia (or Vinnitsa) is the city where I was born and lived there for 12 years. This news brings so much pain and sadness to me…
"Vinnytsia came under a massive attack by 28 Shahed drones overnight, sparking fires across the city. Seven people were injured, including two in serious condition. Strikes hit industrial infrastructure and damaged four residential buildings."