Catching up…
For a general view of news from various geopolitical threatres, Scott’s EA Worldview is always superb.
Let’s get going…
Stories we’re following…
At least 6 killed, 26 injured in Russian attacks across Ukraine over past day. According to Ukraine's Air Force, Ukrainian air defense hit 74 out of 107 drones launched overnight by Russia.
June 30: Russia bombed food warehouse in Kharkiv region last night. and they have said it was a military objective. It was food.
President Zelensky evening address: Putin has already stolen practically half a year from diplomacy — another half a year — on top of the entire duration of this war.
Russia is not changing its plans and is not looking for a way out of this war. On the contrary, they are preparing for new operations, including on the territory of European countries. That’s their principle, the Russians look for where to exploit a weakness. They must see that there is the wherewithal to stop them everywhere. Therefore, more of our joint production, more resilience, more coordination and efficiency of our common security architecture in Europe.
For the first time, the UN has acknowledged that the Olenivka prison massacre was a premeditated Russian war crime, according to Ukraine’s Ombudsman Dmytro Lubinets. Over 50 Ukrainian POWs were killed in a July 2022 explosion. New UN analysis confirms: Russia planned and carried out the attack.
BBC News: "What they're showing on Russian TV are fairy tales for fools. Most of Mariupol still lies in ruins," says John, a Ukrainian living in Russian-occupied Mariupol. We've changed his name as he fears reprisal from Russian authorities.
"They are repairing the facades of the buildings on the main streets, where they bring cameras to shoot. But around the corner, there is rubble and emptiness. Many people still live in half-destroyed apartments with their walls barely standing," he says.
It's been just over three years since Mariupol was taken by Russian forces after a brutal siege and indiscriminate bombardment – a key moment in the early months of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Thousands were killed, and the UN estimated 90% of residential buildings were damaged or destroyed.
In recent months, videos and reels from several pro-Russia influencers have been painting a picture of a glossy city where damaged structures have been repaired and where life has gone back to normal.
But the BBC has spoken to more than half a dozen people - some still living in Mariupol, others who escaped after spending time under occupation - to piece together a real picture of what life is like in the city. [continue reading]
Combat Situation
Ukrainian military again denies reports on Russian troops entering Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Since June 29, the Ukrainian battlefield monitoring group DeepState has marked a "gray" zone in Ukraine's Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, identifying potential fighting in this section of the front line.
Ukrainian forces push Russian army away from Sumy, General Staff says. Ukrainian troops advanced near the village of Oleksiivka and liberated the village of Andriivka, the statement read.
ISW: Russian forces recently advanced near Kupyansk and Novopavlivka and in western Zaporizhia Oblast.
Norway to deploy F-35 fighter jets to Poland to protect Ukrainian aid hub. "We are helping ensure that support to Ukraine reaches its destination, and that Ukraine can continue its fight for freedom," Norwegian Defense Minister Tore Sandvik said.
Russian logistics hub burning in occupied Luhansk Oblast amid reported drone attack, explosions. A Russian logistics hub in occupied Luhansk Oblast is on fire amid a reported drone attack overnight on July 1.
Ukrainian strike: Three people have been killed and 45 taken to hospital following an attack on a factory in the city of Izhevsk - more than 1,000km (620 miles) from the border, Russian authorities say.
Russia reportedly closes Crimean Bridge amid explosions in Kerch. Witnesses reported hearing multiple blasts and observing Russian air defense systems in action.
Update: Ukrainian forces likely carried out a successful strike on a known Russian air defense position in occupied Crimea. Preliminary reports suggest the destruction of S-300 or S-400 surface-to-air missile systems, along with radar units possibly including the 30N6E, 92N6E, or even the rare Kasta-2E2.
Behind the Lines
A powerful explosion occurred today near Grozny at one of the region’s oil wells, according to Chechen channels. A large fire broke out following the blast. Emergency services and ambulances were dispatched to the scene.
‘Russia cannot continue to stall for time' while bombing Ukrainian civilians, Kellogg says. "Peskov’s recent comments on the state of negotiations are Orwellian. Russian claims that it is the US and Ukraine stalling peace talks are unfounded," Special Envoy Keith Kellogg said on June 30.
CORRECTION: My apologies for not waiting a little more to publish the story yesterday.
EU seals new trade deal with Ukraine, key details still pending. The new deal replaces the autonomous trade measures that allowed Ukrainian agri-food exports to enter the EU tariff-free since 2022.
This is not true: Lavrov says NATO's increased defense spending will lead to 'collapse' of alliance. Two high-ranking Moscow officials recently issued separate warnings about the state of Russia's economy.
It is the exact opposite. The narrative set by the Russians that NATO will destroy Europe is being disseminated through media vehicles across Europe at the moment, accompanied by the discrediting of European leaders and an attempt to split the US from the EU. The Russians and Chinese are tapping into well-oiled networks that appear in conferences and national TV political talk shows to get their message across. They fear a reawakening of European NATO member states defence posture and capabilities because it would mean the Russians would not have the resources to attack a European NATO member state.
The Cipher Brief: July 1 was USAID’s last day in operation; its functions are being absorbed into the Department of State. Most USAID staff had already been fired and many programs ended. Rubio argues that USAID has spent over $715 billion, adjusted for inflation, over the decades, yet “has little to show since the end of the Cold War.” He asserted that aid efforts often failed to produce stability or foster pro-American sentiment, and that recipient nations often failed to reciprocate.
Still, experts and former officials warn that the closure of USAID could have severe consequences. On Monday, the medical journal The Lancet said that by 2030, 14 million more deaths could result from the demise of USAID. Experts also argue that the move kills a vector for American soft power which others like China will fill.
In fact, Beijing is only strengthening its soft power persuasiveness around the world. And contrary to Rubio’s claims, some critics say that aid programs helped foster the stability and prosperity that countries need to prevent extremist and radical groups from taking root. For now, though, America’s flagship aid agency is offline.
Michael McCaul: I led the effort to pass the emergency wartime supplemental to ensure Ukraine finally had the weapons it needed to repel Russia’s viscous and unprovoked attack. We can’t let Putin prevail now. President Trump knows that too and it’s why he’s been advocating for peace. Now is the time to show Putin we mean business. And that starts with ensuring Ukraine has the weapons Congress authorized to pressure Putin to the negotiating table.
Meanwhile in Russia & China…
Kyrylo Shevchenko: Russia is courting Chinese companies to build up occupied Crimea’s transport infrastructure. Moscow plans to bring in China State Construction Engineering Corp, one of the world’s biggest builders, to move forward with $10B+ worth of projects — despite sanctions and looming water shortages on the peninsula. Kremlin Moscow wants China to take care of Kerch seaport and naval base at Donuzlav lake. Russia can’t fund or legitimize Crimea alone — so it outsources its war economy to Beijing. And if agreed, this is nothing but entrenchment of illegal occupation. The port is dangerously close to mainland Europe. Before long, Chinese troops will be stationed there.
Russian companies have faced a sharp increase in delivery times for goods from the CIS countries due to stricter customs checks, business representatives told Izvestia.
According to the commercial director of Impaya Rus, Alexey Razumovsky, control over the passage of goods has been tightened in Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Georgia and Armenia, and only Belarus is currently operating without delays. Delivery times have increased the most through Kazakhstan — if goods from the country used to arrive in 10-30 days, now they take a month and a half, noted the founder of Anderida Financial Group , Alexey Tarapovsky.
According to Alexey Ivanov, owner of Alliance Trucks, the delays primarily concern electronics deliveries, but they also selectively affect other categories of goods, including auto components and accessories. Increased control has also been extended to dual-use products, added Olga Shoall, Commercial Director of Novasmart. “Special attention is now being paid to technological products — in the context of a shortage of servers and computing infrastructure, such goods can be used for both civilian and military purposes. Therefore, they are being monitored especially closely. But branded items like Gucci or Louis Vuitton bags have been and continue to be,” confirmed Razumovsky.
Follow up on the tensions between Azerbaijan and Russia: Azerbaijani businessmen getting arrested all over Russia now.
The Department of Justice says U.S. authorities have indicted nine people accused of stealing the identities of U.S. citizens to get remote jobs with U.S. companies— and then funneling their earnings to North Korea’s weapons of mass destruction programs. Four North Korean nationals have been charged in a nearly $1 million cryptocurrency theft scheme linked to the fraudulent remote work effort. U.S. authorities also searched 29 known or suspected “laptop farms” across 16 states and say they seized financial accounts and fraudulent websites linked to the illicit revenue schemes.
Citizens of Belarus should pray to the current government and thank it for the fact that there is no war in the country, President Lukashenko said on June 30.
At the same time, the country is in a “war situation,” he emphasized during the appointment of heads of district executive committees at the Palace of Independence, referring to the worsening problems in agriculture.
Lukashenko called on officials to be “masters of their land” and monitor the movement of personnel. “Why am I already posing the question so harshly? Many people say: ‘Serfdom, serfdom.’ Listen, guys, today the situation is warlike. The fact that we are not fighting means that the people should pray to this government. The fact that we are still somehow holding on. You see what is happening around us – as soon as problems arise inside, they will intensify them, they will throw them at us,” the Belarusian president said.
The President also threatened that if regional leaders complain about a shortage of specialists, Minsk will send "two or three inspectors" to them. And if the workers "left on their own, ran away," then the claims will be against those who "hired them without your knowledge."
As Russian projects collapse and promises drag on, China is rapidly expanding its presence in Cuba through active investment. Beijing plans to build dozens of solar power plants on the island and help modernize existing infrastructure.
With Cuba suffering from constant power outages, China’s offer couldn’t have come at a better time. Meanwhile, Russia continues to offer only verbal support for the Cuban regime — its actual assistance remains empty talk.
China’s presence is not just economic driven. The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) analyzed nearly a dozen "sites of interest" in Cuba and released a report highlighting the four locations it deems most likely to be supporting China's intelligence operations.
"Cuba's proximity to the southern United States and the Caribbean makes it a prime location for collecting signals intelligence (SIGINT) on the region," the authors wrote. SIGINT refers to intercepting and analyzing electronic signals, including phone calls, emails, and non-communications signals such as radar. Three of the four sites are located in Cuba's west, near the capital of Havana and about 100 miles from Key West, Florida, the U.S.'s southernmost point.
Decode39: China’s state media is expanding its narrative influence in Italy through a new documentary glorifying Xi Jinping’s cultural agenda, backed by local partners. As Beijing builds ties with Italian outlets and officials, questions arise over propaganda, transparency, and strategic intentions.
On 25 June, Xi Jinping’s cultural story—a “vivid” portrait of Chinese President Xi Jinping’s cultural‑heritage campaign—premiered in more than 30 Italian media outlets, including those under Gruppo Netweek Spa, long a Beijing partner for narrative content.
According to China’s State Council Information Office, “it vividly presents China’s practical efforts in the new era to trace the origins of civilisation and protect cultural heritage, highlighting the profound, far-reaching, inclusive and ever-evolving nature of Chinese culture”.
It’s worth remembering that in early 2024, the Meloni government chose not to renew the 2019 Belt and Road Initiative MoU signed under Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte, while still agreeing with Beijing on relaunching their Global Strategic Partnership.
Lincei screening. The film was formally unveiled at Rome’s Accademia Nazionale dei Lincei during an event co‑hosted by China Media Group and Italy’s Culture Ministry.
Guests included Shen Haixiong (head of China Media Group), who announced a content‑sharing deal with Italian news agency Italpress.
In Europe…
Germany vows to pursue 'every path' to boost Ukraine's air defenses, FM Wadephul says in Kyiv. Speaking at a press conference during his visit to Kyiv, German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul said Germany is working with its defense industry, European allies, and the United States to urgently secure more systems for Ukraine's air shield.
Mo: I have refrained from coming to conclusions or making judgements when it comes to EU member state actions to boost Ukrainian defence posture. But now is the time for EU member states to act quickly. Reassuring words will not push back Russian forces: the Ukrainians need both offensive and defence armaments to do the job. In Europe, we are all well-aware that the Ukrainian forces are also defending Europe’s eastern flank. It is not a question of charity: it is a security issue as well as a humanitarian one.
Denmark has officially assumed the Presidency of the Council of the European Union, set to last until December 31, 2025. The Danish government has outlined two main priorities: a safer Europe — with stronger migration management and continued support for Ukraine — and a more competitive, green Europe.
In other news…
The Cipher Brief: The Senate unanimously confirmed some key promotions at the Pentagon on Sunday night. Vice Admiral Brad Cooper will be the next Commander of U.S. Central Command, and Air Force Lieutenant General Alexus Grynkewich will lead U.S. European Command. Both will earn their fourth star. Vice Adm. Cooper is succeeding Army General Michael Kurilla and Lt. Gen. Grynkewich succeeds Army General Christopher Cavoli. Grynkewich will also be dual-hatted as NATO’s Supreme Allied Commander Europe (SACEUR).
Vice Adm. Cooper is assuming his new duties amid the fragile Israel-Iran ceasefire and Lt. Gen. Grynkewich is taking charge in the fourth year of Russia’s full-scale war in Ukraine, with European countries highly sensitive of the Russian threat. Both said in statements that they will prioritize the integration of cutting-edge tech, from artificial intelligence to unmanned systems, in their commands.
There are still a number of important roles left unfilled at the Pentagon as there are still no confirmation hearings scheduled for vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and commanders of U.S. Africa Command and U.S. Special Operations Command.
Absolutely, RFK! And don’t forget…you can always rely on YouTube and Insta.
CNN: Senate GOP passes Trump’s domestic agenda bill, setting up high-stakes fight in the House
Senate Republicans narrowly approved President Donald Trump’s giant tax and spending cuts package Tuesday after a days-long grind to secure the support of key holdouts, leaving one major step to send it to his desk.
The vote comes after weeks of bitter GOP infighting, with Trump himself forced to intervene to convince fellow Republicans to back his plan. But the hard work for Republicans isn’t yet done: The bill must still be approved by the House, which is expected to return to Washington on Wednesday.
GOP leaders are racing to try to get the bill to the White House by July 4. The multi-trillion-dollar bill would unlock tax cuts and funding boosts for national security, partly paid for by the biggest cut to the federal safety net in decades.
Just another product that the president of the United States is selling.
The Cipher Brief: Musk took to social media to renew his criticism of the president’s tax-cut and spending bill, which would eliminate subsidies for electric vehicle purchases that have benefited Tesla in the past. Musk has said he might use his billions to launch a new political party and spend money to defeat members of Congress who support the tax bill.
Trump responded to Musk with ominous, if vague, warnings. "He's upset that he's losing his EV mandate and … he's very upset about things but he can lose a lot more than that," Trump told reporters. He got granular on TruthSocial saying that Musk could also lose subsidies that support his businesses — including SpaceX.
NASA and Pentagon officials have warned that if President Trump cancels SpaceX contracts, competitors need to be able to swiftly fill the gap with alternative rockets, launch systems and satellites, or else the U.S. may have a sudden vacuum in space capabilities — a disastrous scenario given the renewed space race with China and Russia.
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