July 3: E-Stories
InUkraine CombatSitRep BehindLines Russia-China InEurope InOtherNews
Catching up…
For a general view of news from various geopolitical threatres, Scott’s EA Worldview is always superb.
Let’s get going…
Stories we’re following…
Russia hits evacuation vehicle in Donetsk Oblast, killing civilian. According to the police, Russian forces attacked the evacuation vehicles provided by chaplains three times.
Russian forces attacked a Nova Poshta terminal in Sloviansk overnight using drones, according to Vadym Liakh, head of the city’s military administration. Strikes hit the terminal on Literaturna Street and the Toretska-Naberezhna area. Fortunately, no casualties were reported.
Trump's move to pause foreign aid to Ukraine, coupled with Europe's shifting defense spending priorities, is wreaking havoc on humanitarian lifelines amidst the ongoing war with Russia.
Stopping the supply of US weapons already allocated to Ukraine would "significantly impact" its military plans, undermining its ability to defend itself against Russian airstrikes and carry out precision strikes against enemy targets. That is why Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andriy Sybikha summoned US Deputy Ambassador John Hinkel to urgently discuss military assistance and cooperation, the Foreign Ministry said in a statement shared with the Financial Times.
Ukraine's power exports surge 25 times, recovering to pre-Russian attack levels. Ukraine boosted electricity exports by 150% in June 2025 compared to the previous month, reaching over 237,000 megawatt-hours (MWh), according to consulting firm ExPro Electricity.
Ukraine receives $500 million in IMF funding, maintaining growth forecasts. Ukraine received approximately $500 million from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), marking the ninth tranche under the country's Extended Fund Facility program, the Ukrainian Ministry of Finance announced in a press release on July 1.
After Trump cut support, US lawmakers press for action on Russian abductions of Ukrainian children. A bipartisan resolution condemns the abductions and calls for the repatriation of children even before a potential peace deal is finalized.
UK Ministry of Defence: Children are being abducted into Russia from occupied Ukrainian territory. This is a war crime. It’s time for Putin to return Ukraine’s children and end his illegal war.
Combat Situation
Russian missile strike on Dnipropetrovsk Oblast kills brigade commander, injures 30 people, Zelensky says. A Russian missile attack killed the commander of the 110th Separate Mechanized Brigade, Serhii Zakharevych, and injured 30 people in Huliaipole in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast on July 1, President Volodymyr Zelensky said in his evening address.
ISW: Ukrainian forces advanced near Pokrovsk. Russian forces advanced near Toretsk and Novopavlivka.
The Russian military command is modernizing Russian training grounds to include motorcycle tracks and reportedly intends to purchase up to 200,000 Chinese-made motorcycles for the Russian military. Ukrainian forces continue to strike defense industrial enterprises in Russia's rear. The Ukrainian military command continues to transition to a corps structure and improve its training system.
Four drone production workshops were damaged at the Kupol defense plant in Izhevsk, Russia — ASTRA reports. One UAV struck Workshop 106, another hit the roof of Workshop 110, triggering a fire and roof collapse (1,300 m²).
CNN: North Korea plans to send up to 30,000 troops to Ukraine. North Korea is planning to send up to 30,000 more soldiers to fight alongside Russia in Ukraine, reports CNN .
Ukrainian intelligence assessments seen by CNN suggest that North Korean forces could join the Russians in the coming months.
According to the Ukrainian assessment, the Russian Ministry of Defense is able to provide "necessary equipment, weapons and ammunition" with the aim of "increasing integration with Russian combat units."
The document further states that “there is a high possibility” that North Korean forces will participate in fighting in Russian-occupied territories of Ukraine “to reinforce Russian forces even during large-scale offensive operations.”
Over 210,000 Russians sign contracts for war in Ukraine in first half of 2025, Moscow says. "The pace is quite decent, good," Dmitry Medvedev, the deputy chairman of Russia's Security Council and former president, said
Behind the Lines
Latvia is sending a new military aid package to Ukraine, which will include 42 Patria armored personnel carriers, according to the country’s defense minister. The package will also include spare parts, ammunition, and other weapons.
Important Context provided by Ruth Deyermond: The problem with Graham and Blumenthal's Russia sanctions bill is that the decision to impose sanctions is left entirely to the president. So, Russia could destroy every city in Ukraine and if Trump didn't want to spoil relations with Putin then no sanctions would be imposed.
Kellogg, Graham and others who have been hawkish on Russia/supportive of Ukraine but are unwilling to do anything that displeases Trump will talk up this bill as a great blow against Russia's war. When Trump signs it, they'll say it's evidence of Trump being tough on Russia.
The Russia sanctions bill places sanctions decisionmaking entirely in the hands of a man who has spent a decade talking about the need to get along with Russia, who refuses to blame Putin for anything, who sometimes blames Zelensky for starting the war.
The effect of the sanctions bill will be to give the impression that Congress and the Trump administration are being tough on Russia without actually having to do anything at all that would displease Putin. Reporting on it needs to do a better job of pushing back on the spin.
One last thing: I said that Trump wasn't a rational actor on Russia. That's true in his role as president but we have no idea whether his obsession with good relations with Russia is rational from a personal point of view. The assumption has to be that, for whatever reason, it is.
POLITICO: Ukraine is striking out on getting the U.S. to send it more weapons. So it plans to try something new: Asking Washington to let Europe purchase U.S. weapons for Ukraine, according to six people with knowledge of the request.
The novel approach was being discussed around the same time that the Trump administration moved to halt some deliveries of military aid that had already been allocated for Kyiv, including Patriot air defense interceptors and high-explosive artillery rounds. The move, first reported by POLITICO on Tuesday, blindsided top Ukrainian officials. It also comes as Europe pledges to spend more on defense and is looking for creative ways to do so.
As part of the new push, several European governments are exploring plans to buy American-made weapons from their defense budgets for transfer to Ukraine. The money would count toward the new NATO defense spending number, but there have been no solid commitments yet. Those transfers would have to come with U.S. government approval, details of which are being discussed, according to one person familiar with the developing plans. This person, like the others, was granted anonymity to share details of the discussions, which have not been previously reported.
Ukrainska Pravda: The US has not imposed any new sanctions on Russia since Donald Trump has returned to office. This enables Russia to continue acquiring microchips and military components despite the restrictions imposed after the start of its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, reported The New York Times.
Instead of increasing pressure, the Trump administration lifted some restrictions, including those on Karina Rotenberg, wife of Russian oligarch Boris Rotenberg. In addition, the US Justice Department disbanded the KleptoCapture task force, which had been responsible for identifying and seizing assets of individuals close to the Kremlin.
Over 130 newly registered companies in China, Hong Kong, and Singapore are openly advertising banned components for sale to Russia, according to trade and corporate registries. One such company, HK GST Limited, supplies chips used in Russian Kh-101 cruise missiles used in recent strikes on Kyiv.
An analysis by the New York Times shows that the US has not imposed any new restrictions on Russia since early 2025. Experts warn that without regular updates, sanctions lose effectiveness, while Russia actively develops new shadow import schemes.
Congress is already drafting a bill proposing a 500% duty on countries purchasing Russian energy. However, for now, European nations remain the primary drivers of sanctions policy, as US interest in deterring the Kremlin’s aggression appears to be waning.
Russian forces are planning to begin gas extraction in the Sea of Azov, with Russia’s Federal Agency for Subsoil Use claiming it intends to explore 22 promising fields, including the Morske, Pivnichno-Kazantypske and Skhidno-Kazantypske deposits, said Berdiansk City Military Administration, as reported by Suspilne. The Morske field is located about 40 km from the temporarily occupied city of Berdiansk.
Meanwhile in Russia & China…
Back to the front: Back in May, Russia and Ukraine carried out the largest prisoner exchange since the beginning of the full-scale war, with each side releasing 1,000 soldiers. But the families of many returned Russian servicemen say their husbands, brothers, and sons weren’t allowed home for a single day, not even those who were seriously wounded. Instead, they were taken straight back to the front. Now, some families are pleading with the authorities to let the men come home after they’re released — and some are even hoping their loved ones remain in captivity to avoid being sent back to war.
Regular mobile Internet shutdowns have become a new reality for millions across Russia. While the authorities usually present these local blackouts as responses to the threat of Ukrainian drone attacks, their timing and duration often don’t correspond to any actual strikes. More often, they’re the result of preemptive security measures — such as during Moscow’s Victory Day celebrations or the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum. Russia also began cutting mobile service for foreigners not registered in biometric database.
Steve Rosenberg in Moscow for the BBC: Again today Russian papers are reflecting economic concerns: • “New car sales in Russia fall by a quarter” • “Russians struggle to pay off credit card debts” • “Wage arrears have tripled” • “June was most alarming month for manufacturing industry in 3 years”
Starting July 1, Russia will implement a scheduled increase in utility and municipal service rates, in line with a government directive approved in November 2024, according to the website Garant.ru.
In line with the directive, the cost of utilities and municipal services will rise by between 8.6 and 21.1 percent, depending on the region. Rates in Moscow and St. Petersburg will increase by 15 percent, while the Moscow region will see a 13 percent hike. Local authorities have the final say on how much rates go up. As a rule, they must stay within the limits set by the federal government, though some exceptions are allowed.
Euromaidan Press: Putin rushes massive troop surge to Moldova breakaway to save European land bridge dreams
Ukraine’s cutoff of Russian gas has collapsed Transnistria’s economy and sparked local doubts about Russian alignment, threatening to eliminate Moscow’s only viable endpoint for westward expansion.
With gas reserves depleted, energy production cut in half, and Moscow planning a 10,000 strong troop deployment, the enclave is quickly becoming both a liability and a flashpoint. However, behind this local collapse lies a larger risk: if Russia loses its grip on Transnistria, it will also lose the strategic payoff of any future advance through Odesa.
For months, signs of strain were building. In January, Ukraine cut off Russian gas transit across its territory, no longer willing to tolerate the role of middleman in a trade that indirectly financed the Kremlin’s war effort. That decision plunged Transnistria into an energy crunch. Moscow responded with short-term shipments rerouted via Hungary, but volumes remained small, inconsistent, and subject to immediate political pressure from both Moldova and Russia.
Moldova has refused to act as a fallback supplier. The government in Chisinau halted liquefied gas shipments and phased out centralized deliveries to Transnistria, arguing that it cannot be expected to support a breakaway territory still in a formal frozen conflict with the state of Moldova.
In parallel, Russia reportedly pressured the Transnistrian leadership to reject any Western assistance, further isolating the region. With no official transit routes, no contracts, and no backup reserves, the region’s economy has tanked. Industrial output is down 43%, trade has fallen by 31.5%, energy production has halved, and metallurgy and chemical industry output have dropped by over 60%. This is having terrible effects on the Transnistrian economy, with GDP expected to decline by 12% and inflation to rise by 16%, casting doubts among Transnistrians if continued cooperation with Russia is in their best interests.
Armenia may nationalise electric company: On Wednesday, July 2, the Armenian parliament approved in the first reading a package of amendments to a number of laws that provide for the possibility of nationalizing the Electric Networks of Armenia (ENA) company as reported by News.am. ENA, which is a monopoly in the distribution of electricity in the country, belongs to the Tashir group of companies, controlled by Russian businessman of Armenian origin Samvel Karapetyan. In mid-June, he was arrested in Yerevan for two months on charges of calling for the seizure of power.
Background to Azeri-Russian fallout: On June 27, state investigators in Yekaterinburg arrested dozens of Azerbaijani nationals, questioning suspects in a series of murders and attempted murders committed between 2001 and 2011. Two primary suspects, brothers Huseyin and Ziyaddin Safarov, died during their interrogations. In the wake of the two men’s deaths, Russian–Azerbaijani tensions spiraled, leading to reciprocal police raids in Baku and an intensifying diplomatic row. Meduza reviews how the current standoff unfolded.
According to Azerbaijani media, all Russian-language schools in the country will be gradually closed, and the Russian language will be completely removed from the school curriculum.
Turkiye Today to be confirmed: Armenia, Türkiye, and Azerbaijan have reportedly reached an agreement on the Zangezur corridor, according to unconfirmed claims circulating on social media platforms, potentially marking a significant shift in regional geopolitics and transportation networks.
CaucasusWarReport made claims on social media platform X, stating, "We won't comment too much until the official details are released, but Armenia, Türkiye, and Azerbaijan have reached an agreement on the Zangezur corridor during Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan's recent visit to Türkiye. Under this deal, Russia will have zero control over the corridor, effectively being cut out entirely."
The Azeri Times also reported on the platform, "There are multiple reports that Türkiye, Azerbaijan, and Armenia are nearing a deal on the Zangazur Corridor, potentially sidelining Russia's influence in the South Caucasus."
In Europe…
Reuters: The European Union's top diplomat urged China's foreign minister on Wednesday to end restrictions on rare earths exports and warned that Chinese firms' support for Russia's war in Ukraine posed a serious threat to European security, the EU said.
Kallas "called on China to put an end to its distortive practices, including its restrictions on rare earths exports, which pose significant risks to European companies and endanger the reliability of global supply chains," the EU said.
On trade, Kallas urged "concrete solutions to rebalance the economic relationship, level the playing field and improve reciprocity in market access".
She also "highlighted the serious threat Chinese companies' support for Russia’s illegal war poses to European security".
China says it does not provide military support to Russia for the war in Ukraine. But European officials say Chinese companies provide many of the vital components for Russian drones and other weapons used in Ukraine.
Kallas called on China "to immediately cease all material support that sustains Russia’s military industrial complex" and support "a full and unconditional ceasefire" and a "just and lasting peace in Ukraine".
Britain and Germany have agreed on a wide-ranging pact that includes commitments to provide military assistance in the event of a “strategic threat” to either country, five sources told Politico. They said the document will be signed on July 17. The groundwork for the agreement was laid last summer in a joint declaration on closer economic and security cooperation. There have been 18 rounds of talks since then.
Où là là: The summit of Paris’ iconic Eiffel Tower has been closed to visitors because of the extreme heat wave sweeping across France and the rest of Europe.
“Due to the current heat wave, the Eiffel Tower is taking measures to ensure the comfort and safety of our visitors and staff,” said a statement on the attraction’s website, adding that the summit will be closed all day Tuesday and Wednesday.
Decode39: RT has aimed at the Italian PM with a video implying drug use—reviving a smear tactic previously used against France’s Macron. The Kremlin’s disinformation machine appears to be intensifying its focus on Meloni, whose Atlanticist stance continues to frustrate Moscow.
Moscow appears to be furious because Meloni refused to echo US President Donald Trump’s more conciliatory approach to Russia and remains unwavering in her condemnation of Russian President Vladimir Putin. She has also cautioned NATO allies about Russia’s strategic designs in Libya.
In other news…
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian put into effect a law passed by parliament last week to suspend cooperation with the U.N. nuclear watchdog, the IAEA, Iranian state media reported.
WaPo: Israel has agreed to the "necessary conditions" to finalise a 60-day ceasefire in Gaza, US President Donald Trump has said, without giving further details. Israel has not confirmed this and there has been no comment from Hamas. In a social media post, the US president urged Hamas to take "this Deal, because it will not get better — IT WILL ONLY GET WORSE".
