July 4: E-Stories
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Catching up…
For a general view of news from various geopolitical threatres, Scott’s EA Worldview is always superb.
Rough night in Kyiv. Fires, smoke. hundreds of drones shot down over the past 9 hours, and it’s still ongoing. Earlier we knew: Russia targeted the power grid; now it terrorizes civilians all night. All as U.S. aid to air defense is on pause.
Putin sending Trump his happy July 4th message: the Russians launched 12 ballistic missiles at Kyiv.
Stories we’re following…
Thursday evening massive drone strike on Kyiv: Kyiv’s air defense is already engaging Russian Shahed drones, up to 50 of them are reported over Ukraine tonight. A mass wave is expected to hit Brovary district within 30 minutes, likely moving toward the capital.
Many dead and wounded, including civilians, after Russian strikes on Poltava on Friday, according to Ukraine’s Ground Forces. One strike caused a fire at the city’s military enlistment office. Another triggered a fire near the regional recruitment center, hitting a private home.
2 people killed, 24 injured in Zhytomyr amid explosions. The cause of the explosions was not immediately clear and is under investigation, Ukraine's National Police said.
Ukraine suspends citizenship of Moscow-linked church head. The SBU said it had established that Metropolitan Onufrii, also known by his secular name, Orest Berezovskyi, voluntarily received Russian citizenship in 2002 and failed to inform Ukrainian authorities of the fact.
'Tied to a motorcycle and dragged' — Russia likely executed another Ukrainian POW, ombudsman says. Russian forces likely executed another Ukrainian prisoner of war (POW), Ombudsman Dmytro Lubinets said on July 1, referring to a recent video that appears to show the captive tied to a motorcycle and dragged along a road.
ISW—Ukrainians under Russian occupation:
Russia is training Ukrainian children to become drone operators for future service in the Russian military or employment in the Russian defense industrial base.
Russian occupation officials are using the threat of disconnecting residents of occupied Ukraine from mobile communications networks in order to coerce passportization.
The Kremlin is introducing a “war risks” insurance program to encourage Russian construction and development in occupied Ukraine. Russian development projects are a core part of Russia’s efforts to permanently and irreversibly subsume Ukraine and complicate any future Ukrainian reintegration efforts.
Russia continues efforts to steal Ukraine’s agricultural output for its own profit.
Combat Situation
Ukraine denies another Russian claim of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast breakthrough, says small incursion repelled. According to the statement, a small Russian reconnaissance group managed to briefly enter the village of Dachne, located on the edge of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. The group reportedly took photos with a Russian flag, but Ukrainian forces "eliminated them."
An explosive night deep in Russia: Drones struck Lipetsk and Voronezh regions. Russian sources claim 69 UAVs were downed. But reports from local media suggest a hit on the "Energiya" plant in Lipetsk and a major explosion at an industrial site in Kotovsk (Tambov region).
Footage from Khartsyzk in temporarily occupied Donetsk region — multiple direct hits, reportedly on a Russian ammunition depot.
Russia's Kupol military plant reportedly halts operations after Ukrainian drone strike. The plant produces Tor and Osa air defense systems, as well as Harpy-type attack drones.
Drone strike results at Kirovske airfield in Crimea: According to the SBU, a Russian Pantsir-S1 air defense system and three helicopters were destroyed. Satellite imagery confirms strike marks on three helicopters and burn traces near the Pantsir-S1, indicating it was likely damaged.
Russia cannot launch 500 drones every day, Ukraine's intel chief says. Russia has the capacity to launch as many as 500 Iranian-designed Shahed attack drones at Ukraine in a single attack, but doing so on a daily basis is not possible, Ukraine's military intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov said on July 2.
Confirmed: In Korenovo, Kursk region, a strike on a Russian command post reportedly eliminated Major General Mikhail Gudkov, Deputy Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Navy. Over 10 others were also killed, most of them senior officers.
Behind the Lines
Manolis Pilavov, former head of the occupation Russian administration, has been killed in an explosion in temporarily occupied Luhansk, as reported by RIA Novosti, TASS and Meduza. Media reports indicate that the explosion occurred around midday on 3 July on Taras Shevchenko Street. The so-called "Luhansk People's Republic government" stated that one person was killed and three others injured in the explosion. (Video credit: TASS)
The U.S. is proposing to supply Ukraine with significantly less weaponry—only enough to “bring the war to a conclusion,” WSJ reports. At the time deliveries were paused, over 20 PAC-3 Patriot missiles, more than 20 Stinger systems, Hellfire missiles, and over 90 AIM missiles were stored in Poland.
Ukraine says it wasn't notified of US weapons shipment halt; official insists 'deliveries continue.' In a statement, Ukraine's Defense Ministry said it is working to verify the current status of all elements in the agreed aid packages and has requested a phone call with U.S. defense officials for further clarification.
Germany is seeking a deal with the U.S. to finance additional Patriot missile deliveries for Ukraine, Bild reports. Washington’s decision to pause certain arms supplies has raised alarm in Berlin, with German officials particularly concerned about Ukraine’s shortage of interceptor missiles for its Patriot air defense systems.
Kremlin welcomes reported pause in US arms shipments to Ukraine, says it brings war's end closer. "The fewer weapons that are supplied to Ukraine, the closer the end of the... (Russia-Ukraine war)," Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov told reporters.
'They're going to lose more lives' — US lawmakers voice opposition to Trump administration halting air defense shipments to Ukraine. In a letter to U.S. President Donald Trump about the reported halt of air defense deliveries, Republican Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick, the co-chair of the Congressional Ukraine Caucus, requested an emergency briefing from the White House and Pentagon on the shipments.
The Cipher Brief: Trump spoke with Putin today—their first known call since the U.S. halted some military aid to Ukraine. A Kremlin readout of the call said Trump urged Putin to swiftly end the war in Ukraine, but the Russian leader refused. Russian state news cited Yuri Ushakov, a close advisor to Putin, as saying that Putin emphasized Russia will not “back down” from its goals in Ukraine, including eliminating “well-known root causes” which led to the war — referring to the Kremlin’s maximalist demands against Ukraine’s sovereignty and integration with Western allies. The White House has yet to release a summary of the call. An administration official said Trump is set to speak with Zelensky on Friday. The U.S. pause on key weapons deliveries is likely top of the agenda. We just keep wondering, as do many Russia experts, when the administration will take a tougher tone with the Russian president.
Olga Lautman: Putin and Trump held another useless phone call and it’s a repeat of the same nonsense. But what caught my eye was according to Russian news is that “Trump confirmed their mutual interest in implementing a number of economic projects between Russia and the US, in particular in energy and space”.
Meanwhile in Russia & China…
Russian businessmen have pumped record amounts out of their companies amid the bank lending crisis and declining investment activity. According to Forbes, the total volume of payments from large Russian companies to 50 businessmen reached a historic high of 1.769 trillion rubles in 2024. For comparison, this amount did not exceed 1.4 trillion in 2022 and 2023. Eleven participants in the rating had dividends exceeding 50 billion rubles per person.
The Main Naval Parade (GVMP) in St. Petersburg, timed to coincide with Navy Day, which falls on July 27 this year, has been cancelled. This was reported by Fontanka , citing several informed sources. According to the publication, preparations for the parade were stopped several days ago. In particular, training of foot crews has been stopped — they traditionally conclude the ceremonial events on Senate Square.
Russian officer admits to downing Azerbaijani airliner in reported leak. A person claiming to be a Russian officer said he had received an order to open fire at an aerial target last December that turned out to be an Azerbaijani airliner, Azerbaijani news outlet Minval reported on July 1, citing audio and written statements it had received.
Russia's Rosatom seeks to sell 49% stake in Turkey's first nuclear plant. The project remains a cornerstone of Russian-Turkish energy cooperation.
TASS: Russia has officially recognized the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan, established by the Taliban. The decision, made by Putin, is described as “a gesture of friendship toward the Afghan people” by the Russian ambassador; Kabul now has a new ambassador in Moscow.
Paul Goble: Azerbaijani Diasporas Exist in More than 20 Federal Subjects of the Russian Federation
The violent arrest of two ethnic Azerbaijanis in Yekaterinburg that has triggered a diplomat spat between Baku and Moscow has also called attention to the issue of how many and how large Azerbaijani diasporas are in the federal subjects of Russia and of how they relate to regional governments and the surrounding population.
According to a survey conducted by the URA news agency, there are Azerbaijani diasporas of sufficient size in more than 20 federal subjects of the Russian Federation to have their own organizations, most of which promote Azerbaijani identity but cooperate closely and well with officials.
The 20 largest are from west to east in St. Petersburg, Leningrad Oblast, Moscow Oblast, Moscow, Rostov Oblast, Krasnodar Kray, Nizhny-Novgorod Oblast, Astrakhan Oblast, Saratov Oblast, Dagestan, Tatarstan, Samara Oblast, Orenburg Oblast, Khanty-Mansiisk AD, Sverdlovsk Oblast, Chelyabinsk Oblast, Tyumen Kray, Novosibirsk Oblast, Krasnoyarsk Kray, and Kemerovo Oblast.
Despite this dispersal, the ethnic Azerbaijani population of the Russian Federation has been in decline. In 2002, there were 602,000. That figure fell to 603,000 in 2010 and 475,00o in 2020/2021. Like many diaspora populations, it has been disproportionately male and urban, with Azerbaijani women forming fewer than half the number of men among Azerbaijanis in cities.
Giorgi Mindadze, a 21-year-old medical student, was sentenced to 5 years in prison on charges of assaulting police, in the fifth guilty verdict handed down in the criminal cases against dozens detained since November 2024 for their involvement in anti-Georgian Dream protests.
Newsweek: China's Disappearing Generals Put Questions Over Xi's Grip
China's powerful Central Military Commission has shrunk to its smallest size in decades under the leadership of Xi Jinping, a Newsweek analysis shows, with analysts saying it highlights the personalisation of his control - and efforts to make the military combat-ready.
The changes come at a critical time for China as it rivals the United States in military and economic terms amid the ever-present question as to whether it will seek to take over democratic Taiwan, which Communist Party leader Xi has repeatedly said he wants to incorporate as what he sees as an integral part of China.
Yet scores of changes in security and other political positions, including in China's top military leadership, have also brought the dismissal of persons seen as Xi loyalists, raising speculation among some China-watchers of a challenge to the most powerful grip that any leader has held since the era of party strongmen Deng Xiaoping and Mao Zedong.
"I think it's a definite sign of Xi Jinping's attempts to personalize the control over the military," said Jaehwan Lim, a professor of international politics at Japan's Aoyama Gakuin University. "I think that it's kind of becoming pathological, an extension of his personalization of the control of the military... His agenda is the strengthening of the PLA, is combat readiness. That's his pretty clear agenda," Lim said.
The status of He has added to growing speculation over political maneuvring and a possible internal challenge to Xi that strengthened this week with the announcement from China's Politburo of a new "Central Committee decision-making and coordination body" to "enhance the centralized and unified leadership of the CPC Central Committee over major initiatives."
The Politburo announcement warned the members of the 205-person Central Committee – Xi is a member – against "taking over others' functions or overstepping boundaries."
Xi presided over the meeting but, tellingly, was not given the by-now customary designation as the "core", and China-watchers are divided on whether the body would weaken or strengthen Xi's grip.
In Europe…
Poliisi Finland: “Several people have been stabbed near the Ratina shopping center in Tampere. The incident took place outside the shopping center, near Ratina Square and the bus station.”
Italy, along with other NATO countries, has agreed to sharply increase defense spending over the next decade, but Giorgia Meloni's government is already working on imaginative ways to minimise any hit to its strained public finances.
76 million euros from the EU: Ukrainian Railways has gained the support for the euro gauge railway from Lviv. The European Union intends to allocate 76 million euros in grant funds for the construction of the euro gauge from Lviv to the Polish border.
POLITICO EU: Denmark will push to suspend Hungary’s voting rights in the EU over its continued blocking of Ukraine’s accession talks, says European Affairs Minister Bjerre. Copenhagen plans to trigger Article 7 of the EU Treaty, which can strip a member state of its voting rights in the Council.
Slovakia appears to have received the necessary assurances from the European Commission regarding a gradual phase-out of Russian energy by the end of 2027, according to Radio Free Europe's Europe editor Rikard Jozwiak. This could pave the way for the approval of the EU’s 18th sanctions package against Russia in the near future.
MP Zarah Sultana: Today, after 14 years, I’m resigning from the Labour Party. Jeremy Corbyn and I will co-lead the founding of a new party, with other Independent MPs, campaigners and activists across the country. Join us. The time is now.
Mo: What a great gift to Farage’s Reform Party. Fracturing the party that is holding power at this time isn’t the way to solve the UK’s problems, and its security and economic challenges. Corbyn was already defeated soundly at the polls when he went head to head against Boris Johnson. Like all parties on the left and left of centre, they just can’t get along for any period of time to govern properly.
SCMP: Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi told the European Union’s top diplomat on Wednesday that Beijing cannot afford a Russian loss in Ukraine because it fears the United States would then shift its whole focus to Beijing, according to several people familiar with the exchange.
The comment, to the EU’s Kaja Kallas, would confirm what many in Brussels believe to be Beijing’s position but jar with China’s public utterances. The foreign minstry regularly says China is “not a party” to the war. Some EU officials involved were surprised by the frankness of Wang’s remarks.
Russia's 'shadow fleet' is estimated at 900 vessels, of which around ten are monitored daily in the English Channel, French admiral Benoît de Guibert said. These tankers transport oil in circumvention of international sanctions not only in the interests of Russia, but also in the interests of its closest allies — Iran and North Korea, he said during hearings in the National Defence and Armed Forces Committee.
"This phenomenon takes advantage of the leniency of international maritime law, as well as the relative opacity of maritime transport and bunkering operations. They are mainly medium-capacity tankers, often of old construction, recently acquired by operators who are difficult to identify and who often do not comply with minimum safety standards," an admiral said.
In other news…
The US has lifted restrictions on exports to China for chip design software developers and ethane producers, a further sign of de-escalating US-Sino trade tensions including concessions from Beijing over rare earths.
Supreme Court Lets Trump Deport Eight Migrants to South Sudan. The order allows the federal government to immediately send the men, who hail from countries around the world, to war-torn South Sudan.
Happy July 4th from Russia: “Putin congratulated Trump with July 4 and reminded him of the contribution of the Russian Federation to the independence of the United States.”
Official Dept of State Readout: The Iranian regime continues to fuel conflict and instability in the Middle East, disrupt trade flows, and fund terrorist and proxy groups. Today, the United States is taking action to stem the flow of revenue that the regime uses to support such destabilizing activity, as well as to oppress its own people.
The Department of State is designating several companies and shadow fleet vessels engaged in the sale and transport of Iranian petroleum, petroleum products, and petrochemical products. This action further implements National Security Presidential Memorandum-2, which directs the imposition of maximum economic pressure on the Iranian regime.
Official Dept of State Readout: July 3, 2025: Today, the United States sanctioned seven senior officials and one entity linked to Al-Qard Al-Hassan (AQAH), a Hizballah-controlled financial institution. These officials, through their management roles, have facilitated Hizballah’s evasion of sanctions, enabling AQAH to conduct millions of dollars in transactions through “shadow” accounts.
Today, the United States is acting to stem the flow of revenue the Iranian regime uses to support terrorism abroad and oppress its own people. The Department of State is sanctioning six entities and identifying four vessels for having knowingly engaged in a significant transaction for the purchase, acquisition, sale, transport, or marketing of petroleum, petroleum products or petrochemical products from Iran.
NBC News: The U.S. added 147,000 jobs in June, soundly beating estimates and offering a welcome sign that the economy remains in relatively solid shape. The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, from 4.2%, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Thursday. The job gains for April and May were revised up by a combined 16,000.
Yet according to ADP US private payrolls fell by 33,000 in June. EuroFile is not convinced that the numbers released by the Bureau of Labour Statistics reflects the entire job market environment. Sources tell us that there are huge firings in various private sector industries. We’ll look into this in more depth.
Trump lands first major legislative win after Congress passes his massive domestic policy bill
Republican lawmakers have handed President Donald Trump the first major legislative achievement of his second term, following a fierce arm-twisting campaign by GOP leaders to unite a deeply divided party behind his sweeping domestic agenda.
House Republicans voted Thursday afternoon to approve Trump’s massive package of tax and federal spending cuts and funding boosts for the Pentagon and border security, clearing the bill to be sent to the White House for his signature. The Senate passed the bill earlier in the week.
The victory comes just six months into Trump’s second term – a rapid timeline that appeared in question up until the final vote. The president and his Capitol Hill allies ratcheted up pressure on party holdouts in recent days, arguing the package will help cement Trump’s legacy on issues like immigration and tax policy – including making key campaign promises reality – while attempting to rein in spending with historic cuts to federal support for the social safety net.