July 5: E-Stories
InUkraine CombatSitRep BehindLines Russia-China InEurope InOtherNews
Catching up…
For a general view of news from various geopolitical threatres, Scott’s EA Worldview is always superb.
I’m numb, tbh. I don’t even know how else we, as journalists, should cover this Russian terror against Ukrainian cities for the West to finally wake up, and send all the defense Ukraine needs. Do they even get that the war in Europe is at their doorstep? I’m not sure.
Iryna Matviyishyn
Stories we’re following…
“One of the worst nights in Kyiv”, Putin deliberately launched the attack right after his call with Trump, said Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha.
"Enough waiting. Putin shows blatant disregard for the U.S. and all who call for peace. The harshest sanctions must be imposed on Moscow immediately. Ukraine must receive all means necessary for self-defense."
Russia's attacks kill 3, injure 34 across Ukraine over past day. Ukraine's Air Force reported that Russia used 52 drones launched from several directions, including Oryol, Millerovo, and Primorsko-Akhtarsk. Air defenses destroyed 40 of them, including 22 shot down and 18 jammed electronically.
Moments of Russian Shahed drone strikes on residential buildings during overnight attacks in Odesa and Kyiv have been captured on video. These deliberate assaults by Russian forces once again targeted civilian infrastructure.
Russia targets Ukrainian conscription offices to disrupt mobilization, military spokesperson says after Poltava attack. "We will continue to strengthen our army, train our troops, and involve more people in defense to deliver a strong response to the enemy," said Ground Forces spokesperson Vitalii Sarantsev.
When Ukrainians say that hundreds of Russian kamikaze drones are attacking Ukraine, most of you probably don’t realize just how big they actually are.
Andrii Sybiha: Another significant achievement for Ukraine in the UN system. This morning in Rome, Ukraine was elected to the FAO Council. We are grateful to all UN Member States for recognizing Ukraine’s vital role as a global food security guarantor. As a dedicated council member, Ukraine will be committed to strengthening the FAO response and making every effort to advance global food security.
Combat Situation
ISW: Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Borova and Siversk and in western Zaporizhia Oblast. Russian forces recently advanced near Kupyansk, Toretsk, and Velyka Novosilka and in western Zaporizhia Oblast.
Deputy commander of Russian Navy killed in Ukrainian strike in Kursk, Russian official confirms. Major General Mikhail Gudkov also led a brigade involved in combat operations against Ukraine. His death reportedly occurred during a Ukrainian attack on a Russian command post.
A convoy of Russian military vehicles went up in flames on the M-4 highway near Yelets, Lipetsk region, after a collision involving a civilian Ozon truck. The fire destroyed an “Akhmat” vehicle, five UAZ trucks, and a cargo hauler — seven vehicles in total. One Russian soldier was injured.
Azov in Russia's Rostov region was hit by multiple drones, including FP-1s and what appears to be a new strike UAV similar to Russia's Shahed. One of the targets was the Azov Optical-Mechanical Plant, which produces high-precision optics, thermal imaging equipment, radar seeker heads for missiles, and electronics for precision artillery, anti-tank weapons, and aerospace tech.
Reuters: Russian use of chemical weapons against Ukraine 'widespread', Dutch defence minister says
"The main conclusion is that we can confirm Russia is intensifying its use of chemical weapons," he told Reuters.
"This intensification is concerning because it is part of a trend we have been observing for several years now, where Russia's use of chemical weapons in this war is becoming more normalized, standardized, and widespread."
'One of Russia's most critical targets' — Ukraine confirms strike on missile battery plant in Lipetsk. The Energia plant in Yelets produces parts for ballistic and cruise missiles, as well as batteries for drones and glide bombs. The factory was previously targeted multiple times this past May.
A chemical plant is burning in Shebekino, Belgorod region, Russia, following a kamikaze drone strike.
'A powerful secondary explosion' — Ukrainian drones destroy Russian ammunition depot in Donetsk Oblast, SBU says. Unconfirmed videos posted to social media show a fire already burning followed by a large explosion and shockwave.
On July 4 near Strilkove, a Chevrolet Aveo carrying three UAV operators from the Bars-Sarmat unit exploded — all were killed. This group, linked to ex-Roscosmos chief Dmitry Rogozin, had been terrorizing civilians.
Drones strike Russia’s Sergiyev Posad in the Moscow region early Friday morning, with a power station among the damaged targets.
The General Staff of Ukraine has confirmed a strike in Moscow targeting the defense concern responsible for producing thermobaric warheads for Shahed-type kamikaze drones — the Research Institute of Applied Chemistry.
US halts Ukraine-bound weapons already staged in Poland, WSJ reports. The shipment includes over two dozen PAC-3 Patriot missiles, more than two dozen Stinger air-defense systems, Hellfire air-to-ground missiles, and over 90 AIM air-to-air missiles intended for use with Ukraine's F-16 fighter jets, according to U.S. administration and congressional officials cited by the Wall Street Journal.
Q: Ukraine says that withholding aid is going to embolden Russia. What is DoD's response to that?
Pentagon spokesman Sean Parnell: Peace has been the President's highest aspiration. ... We've created a framework to analyze what munitions we're sending where to help the President and the SecDef make decisions.
Behind the Lines
Trump: “I’ll be talking to Zelensky on Friday. But honestly, I was very disappointed with my call with Putin. Frankly, it feels like Putin is just… not there anymore. I don’t see any willingness to stop. And that’s very bad. Really. Just being honest, he doesn’t seem like someone who wants to end this war,” Trump said.
NBC News: The Defense Department held up a shipment of U.S. weapons for Ukraine this week over what officials said were concerns about its low stockpiles. But an analysis by senior military officers found that the aid package would not jeopardize the American military’s own ammunition supplies, according to three U.S. officials.
The move to halt the weapons shipment blindsided the State Department, members of Congress, officials in Kyiv and European allies, according to multiple sources with knowledge of the matter.
Critics of the decision included Republicans and Democrats who support aiding Ukraine’s fight against Russia. A leading House Democrat, Adam Smith of Washington, said it was disingenuous of the Pentagon to use military readiness to justify halting aid when the real reason appears to be simply to pursue an agenda of cutting off American aid to Ukraine.
“We are not at any lower point, stockpile-wise, than we’ve been in the 3½ years of the Ukraine conflict,” Smith, the ranking member of the House Armed Services Committee, told NBC News.
A senior Pentagon official, Elbridge Colby, the undersecretary of defense for policy, has backed the moves, the sources said. Colby has long advocated scaling back the U.S. commitment in Ukraine and shifting weapons and resources to the Pacific region to counter China.
The White House has defended the decision, saying it followed an ongoing review by the Defense Department of U.S. assistance to allies and partners abroad that began last month.
The review began after Hegseth issued a memo ordering the Pentagon’s Joint Staff to review stockpiles of all munitions. According to three officials familiar with the matter, the assessment found that some stockpiles of high-precision munitions were at lower levels but not yet beyond critical minimums.
The Joint Staff concluded that providing continued assistance to Ukraine would not drain U.S. supplies below a required threshold needed to ensure military readiness, the officials said.
Zelensky and Trump reportedly held a phone call Head of the Presidential Office Andriy Yermak hinted at it, saying: “A very important and meaningful conversation between the presidents. All the details — coming soon.”
Trump told Zelensky he wants to help with air defense and will check if any U.S. arms deliveries were paused. Both sides agreed their teams will meet soon to discuss defense support — Axios
Merz also spoke with Trump today and tried to discuss sending Patriot systems to Ukraine According to Spiegel, Trump made no promises to the German chancellor. The outlet reminds that back in May, German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius offered the U.S. to supply additional Patriot systems to Kyiv at Germany’s expense.
President Macron spoke by phone with Trump late Thursday night, the Élysée Palace confirmed just after midnight. According to a source in Macron’s administration, they discussed Iran, Ukraine, and ongoing EU–U.S. tariff negotiations.
Ukraine signs major drone co-production deal with US Swift Beat, Zelensky announces. Ukraine signed a major deal with U.S. company Swift Beat to co-produce various types of drones, President Volodymyr Zelensky announced on July 3 during his visit to Denmark.
Estonia’s Harju County Court has found two Moldovan citizens guilty of setting fire to the Slava Ukraini restaurant in Tallinn.
The attack was ordered by Russian special services. According to the investigation, the crime was commited by the two men — Ivan Chihaial (born 1992) and his namesake Ivan Chihaial (born 1987) — linked to the Russian Main Intelligence Directorate (GRU), state broadcaster ERR reported.
The younger admitted that in the summer of 2024, he established contact with representatives of the GRU. In December, he was instructed to set fire to a COOP store in Osula, Võru County, which he did on January 17. Later, he was tasked with setting fire to the Slava Ukraina restaurant. The man documented the crimes on video and sent the footage to his handlers before leaving the country.
Authorities in Latvia, Lithuania and Poland worked to detain the arsonists who were apprehended in Italy before being sent to Estonia to face trial, State Prosecutor Triinu Olev-Aas said. The court sentenced the younger Chihaial to six and a half years in prison, and the older one to six months.
Former US Ambassor to Ukraine Bridget Brink:
Putin’s goals go beyond Ukraine. In my 28 years working in the region, I’ve seen he doesn’t stop unless clearly opposed. He aims to reverse Ukraine’s path toward the EU and NATO. He’ll keep going unless firmly confronted.
We face an ongoing, continuing war in Ukraine. It risks a greater war by not putting more force and pressure on Putin to come to the table. This was one of the most important diplomatic roles for the U.S. [Brink's mission to Ukraine], and I was honored to serve, leading with our values and interests.
During the Biden administration, I was persistent, sometimes to the point of annoying others. But I never feared being fired. You won’t win every argument, but with a structured process, you could make your case and reach decisions.
This is a different administration, and I believe it’s a threat to our future. That’s why I left and am speaking out. It’s vital we stand on the right side of history, especially in a moment as pivotal as this.
Meanwhile in Russia & China…
Visa and Mastercard will be cut off: The cards of the leading international payment systems Visa and Mastercard, issued by Russian banks before the war, remaining with Russians may turn into useless pieces of plastic. The Central Bank, according to the director of the national payment system department Alla Bakina, has proposed limiting the validity period of cards, payment systems that are not included in its register. Among them are Visa and Mastercard.
To ensure that after their departure in March 2022, Russians would not be left without their usual cards, it was enough for the Central Bank to recommend that banks extend their validity period or even make it unlimited.
The Central Bank decided to put an end to this as part of the fight against fraud. In order to limit droppering (cashing out or laundering money using multiple cards from one person), the Chairman of the Central Bank Elvira Nabiullina proposed limiting the number of cards from one person. To this end, the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank planned to create a single register of cards.
Russia is completing its ammunition plant in Venezuela — with capacity to produce up to 70 million Russia's Kalashnikov cartridges annually, which amounts to almost 200,000 rounds per day — enough to supply a mid-sized army nonstop. Amid sanctions and domestic economic downturn, Moscow is exporting its military-industrial complex to authoritarian allies. This is a strategy to build long-term military dependencies. This cooperation dates back to 2006, when Putin and Chávez agreed to build both ammo and AK-103 rifle factories. After years of delays, corruption scandals, and sanctions, Russia is delivering.
Russia is eating up its last reserves. The NWF has just over a year's worth of currency reserves left. The Russian authorities are accelerating the sale of currency from the National Welfare Fund to compensate for the collapse of oil and gas budget revenues, which fell by 34% in June and rolled back to the minimums since January 2023.
From July 7 to August 6, the Central Bank will sell 9.8 billion rubles worth of yuan per day on the exchange in the interests of the Ministry of Finance. Compared to June, the volume of such transactions will increase by a third, or 2.5 billion rubles daily.
The Ministry of Finance is forced to sell off the NWF to cover the budget deficit for the second time since the beginning of this year, since the price of Russian Urals oil remains below the cutoff point of the budget rule - $60. In May, it fell to $52.08, and in June it was $59.84.
The vice president of Russia’s state-owned oil pipeline monopoly Transneft has died after allegedly falling from a window at his home in the upscale Moscow suburb of Rublyovka, state media reported Friday.
Transneft confirmed Andrei Badalov’s death at age 62 but did not comment on the circumstances. The company said his work came during a “difficult and stressful period” marked by Western sanctions.
“The preliminary cause of death is suicide,” the source said, adding that a preliminary investigation was underway.
Badalov had overseen Transneft’s digital transformation since his appointment as vice president in July 2021.
His death is the latest in a string of high-profile and unexplained deaths among senior executives in Russia’s energy sector since the country launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. At least four deaths in 2022 were linked to the state energy giant Gazprom, while others involved executives from Novatek and Lukoil.
Current Time:"There are people and there is a government that has grabbed power." Georgia has begun to jail people for insulting politicians.
The ban on insulting officials appeared in the administrative code of Georgia back in February. But the law has only recently begun to be enforced. The punishment is a fine of up to 4,000 lari, which is about 1,500 US dollars, or arrest for up to 45 days. The authorities explained the need to tighten the law as a reaction to "terror."
"The Georgian public is daily witnessing a well-organized campaign of hatred and terror against state and political officials by the radical opposition and the extremist groups it controls. <...> All this has become so large-scale and systemic that we not only have the right, but are also obliged to respond to this terror," said Irakli Kirtskhalia, an MP from the ruling Georgian Dream.
There are the people and there is the government, which has grabbed power and will do anything to prevent the people from taking this power away. That is what this law is for. Lately, we have been seeing aggression and negativity from the people. They directly approach members of parliament, the so-called officials, and tell them to their faces what they are," says Albi Kordzaia.
Georgian protesters wishing the Americans a Happy Independence Day
RFE/RL: Iran has passed a sweeping new law that expands the use of the death penalty for acts deemed "collaboration with hostile states." The bill also criminalizes sharing images or videos with foreign media. Over the weekend, Iran’s parliament passed a bill imposing significantly harsher sentences for espionage and collaboration with hostile foreign governments, particularly targeting activities linked to Israel and the United States. Legal experts and human rights organizations warn that the law’s broad definitions and severe punishments could lead to arbitrary accusations and mass executions, including for activities that previously carried lesser sentences or would not have been considered espionage.
Following its air defense failure during the recent conflict with Israel, Iran is seeking to modernize its outdated air force. Disappointed by Russia’s reluctance to deliver Sukhoi-35 jets -- despite a strategic partnership -- Iran is now looking to China for advanced J-10C fighter jets. However, Beijing is cautious, balancing ties with Persian Gulf states and US pressure, and may prefer economic over military support. With both Russia and China prioritizing their own interests, Iran faces increasing strategic isolation and limited options to rebuild its aerial capabilities.
In Europe…
FM Radosław Sikorski confirmed that the Polish embassy’s consular building in Kyiv was damaged during Russia’s massive air attack.
“I just spoke with Ambassador Łukaszewicz — everyone is alive and unharmed. Ukraine urgently needs more air defense systems,” Sikorski wrote.
During a Russian strike on Odesa, the Chinese consulate building was damaged. Ukrainian official Andrii Sybiha also shared images of Shahed drone debris found after the Kyiv attack, showing components of Chinese origin.
Czechia experienced what is thought of as the largest blackout in the country’s modern history. Major parts of the country are without electricity, and the source is still unknown or its total implications. The Minister of the Interior has activated the Central Emergency Staff, used for the most severe contingencies.
Minister of Foreign Affairs of Lithuania, Kestutis Budrys: Russia’s lies and cruelty know no bounds.
Mere moments after a phone call between V. Putin and D. Trump, the Kremlin unleashed the heaviest aerial assault yet — over 550 drones and 11 missiles hammered Kyiv for seven hours, injuring at least 20 civilians and destroying or damaging homes, a medical facility, critical infrastructure, including the Polish Consulate.
We urge for the immediate adoption of the EU’s 18th sanctions package, including the lowering of the oil price cap, and an increase in military support so that Ukraine can defend its sovereignty and defeat this barbaric aggression.
United24: Holy Cover? Sweden Probes Russian Orthodox Church Over Espionage Suspicions
A Russian Orthodox church in the Swedish town of Västerås is drawing scrutiny from local authorities and security services over suspected ties to Russian intelligence — just as Europe grapples with the expanding scope of the Kremlin’s hybrid warfare.
An investigation by France24, published on July 4, reveals that the Church of the Kazan Icon of the Mother of God, located just 300 meters from Stockholm-Västerås Airport, may be serving more than a religious purpose. Built with funding from a Rosatom-backed foundation, the church has raised multiple red flags: an unusually tall spire in violation of local zoning, rare public services, and a priest previously decorated by Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR).
Sweden’s domestic security agency, SAPO, believes the church is being used as a platform for espionage and other hostile activities.
“Nothing is normal about a church that close to the airport,” said Andreas Nyqvist, director of the airport’s control tower.
Local residents report that the church, surrounded by a high metal fence and marked with a “No trespassing!” sign, holds services only twice a week. Calls go unanswered. Surveillance cameras line the perimeter.
“The threat of the Russian Orthodox Church is underappreciated by a lot of countries in Europe. It is the only [Russian] structure not affected by sanctions, and we tend to make the mistake of looking at it as if it was a church – because it looks like a church – when in reality, it’s something else,” he said.
Kaja Kallas: Today is more than symbolic in Chișinău. The first EU-Moldova Summit marks a major step on Moldova’s path to the EU. We are by your side – through our Growth Plan, inclusion in EU roaming, swift pre-financing, and funding for infrastructure. The EU stands with Moldova's future.
RFE/RL: “There is always potential for peace, but indications within Russia are such that there is no serious movement towards peace," Latvian Foreign Minister Baiba Braze told Rikard Jozwiak in an exclusive interview.
Latvian Foreign Minister Baiba Braze told RFE/RL in an exclusive interview that “Russia can go on for a while” in its war against Ukraine as it is “cannibalizing all the civilian economy and prioritizing everything around the battlefield”.
Friedrich Merz will make his first visit to the U.K. as German chancellor on July 17 to sign a landmark treaty with British premier Keir Starmer, according to three people familiar with the plans.
Details of the wide-ranging pact promoting cooperation on defense, economic growth and tackling illegal migration were first reported by POLITICO earlier this week. The treaty is expected to feature a mutual assistance clause specifying a threat to one nation would be regarded as a threat to the other.
Merz's trip to London caps off nearly a year of talks since Starmer issued a joint declaration with then-Chancellor Olaf Scholz promising closer alignment between the two countries.
Starmer's team has been courting closer relations with Berlin since they were in opposition, particularly on defense and security, which was the focus of a separate agreement signed last October.
British Defense Secretary John Healey has already established a good relationship with his German counterpart, Boris Pistorius, as the two navigate major reforms to their national armies.
BBC News: Palestine Action will be banned from midnight after a judge refused its request to temporarily block the government from proscribing it as a terror group.
On Friday, a High Court judge refused the group more time to pursue legal action against the government's decision.
It means supporting Palestine Action will become a criminal offence, with membership or expressing support for the direct action group punishable by up to 14 years in prison.
The group's co-founder Huda Ammori said her lawyers will seek an "urgent appeal" to prevent what she called a "dystopian nightmare".
In other news…
OPEC+, the world's largest group of oil producers, is set to meet on Sunday. They are expected to announce an increase in production for August.
Reuters: Trump said he is willing to let migrant laborers stay in the US if the farmers they work for will vouch for them. He said he will also work with the hotel industry on the issue. Meanwhile, US immigration authorities have arrested Mexican boxer Julio Cesar Chavez Jr in Los Angeles.
SpyTalk: CIA at Risk
Rueda spoke about the politicization of intelligence (among other things), from the Bush administration through Trump and Tulsi Gabbard. About Trump’s insane, covert designs on Greenland. And about the actuarial certainty that at least one per cent of the estimated 1,200 to 1,500 intelligence and military folks forced out under Trump for reasons having nothing to do with their competence will succumb to Russian or Chinese spies waving tons of money at them for the secrets in their heads. Do the math: That’s 12 or 15 new turncoats to uncover.
Bloomberg: As President Donald Trump and his advisers begin weighing replacements for Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, they’re running into one significant complication: It’s not clear that Powell will leave the US central bank next year.
The Fed chief has repeatedly declined to say whether he will step down when his four-year term as chair expires in May, or remain on the Fed board — something he could technically do until his tenure as a governor expires in January 2028. The prospect of Powell remaining at the central bank has prompted administration officials to begin planning for multiple scenarios for his replacement, as Trump seeks a chair who will support his economic agenda.
The president said Tuesday he has “two or three top choices” to potentially succeed Powell, but declined to name them. In recent weeks, Trump’s advisers have even discussed with him the possibility that Scott Bessent could simultaneously serve as Treasury secretary and Fed chair, according to people familiar with the matter. Such a move would be unprecedented since the two roles were separated in 1935, in legislation aimed at giving the Fed a measure of independence.
Axios: What the BBB looks like—The tax cuts total $4.5 trillion over a decade, leading to $3.3 trillion in deficit spending, according to the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office.
Republicans will say the real winners are the 83% of households that would've been hit with a tax increase if Trump's 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act had expired at the end of the year.
Democrats will focus on the more than $1 trillion in cuts to Medicaid, which is projected to put nearly 12 million Americans at risk of losing their health care and threaten rural hospitals across the country.
Trump is giving his MAGA faithful $170 billion in border and immigration funds.
Also tucked into the bill: a rise in the nation's debt ceiling by $5 trillion.
Then there are the Trumpian touches to the bill — notably no taxes on tips, a suggestion he got from a Las Vegas waitress.
For babies lucky enough to be born during Trump's second reign, there are $1,000 checks to be placed in "Trump accounts."
Here are three under-the-radar pieces of the bill to watch out for:
1. Gambling: In the new bill, gamblers would only be able to deduct 90% of their losses from their net income when paying taxes. Currently, gamblers can deduct 100%. A hypothetical gambler who won $100,000 but lost $100,000 would have to pay taxes on $10,000 of income.
2. Charitable giving: The new bill allows those who take the standard deduction when filing their tax returns to deduct up to $1,000 (single) or $2,000 (joint).
3. Car loan interest: The bill allows some taxpayers to deduct up to $10,000 of annual interest on auto loans for new cars.
Axios: Tariffs imposed by President Trump have generated tens of billions of dollars in revenue for the government — but the burden falls far from equally on different states, Axios' Ben Berkowitz writes. Who pays for tariffs is a long-settled issue — American businesses do, to the tune of billions of dollars, especially in places like California and Texas.
By the numbers: From Jan. 1 to May 31 of this year, California faced a tariff impact of $11.3 billion, by far the highest in the country.
Texas was a distant second at $6 billion, followed by Michigan at $3.3 billion.
