Jun 1: E-Stories
Day 462: UA-RUSitRep MoscowFallout ZNPP bridges RUships Lavrov GER Austria Uss GDP NorthKorea CN EU SpyWhales A&P Rosenberg Katerji UKDef ISW Battistini Lucas Spivak Macron
Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
Reading Russia with Steve Rosenberg: “What are today's Russian papers saying about yesterday’s drone attack? One concludes: “Moscow's becoming a city on the frontline…it’s a real possibility now that you’ll be woken up by a contraption with several kilograms of explosives flying through your window.”
Stories we’re following…
The Russian military concentrates its main efforts on defensive operations in all directions, trying to complete the capture of Avdiivka and Maryinka, locally improve its tactical position in the Kupyansk, Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and Maryinka directions.
Border Guard Service: Russian forces blow up road linking Ukraine's Chernihiv and Russia's Bryansk. According to the State Border Guard Service spokesperson Andrii Demchenko, cited by Ukrainska Pravda news outlet, the explosion occurred on May 30 on the road linking Ukraine's northern city of Chernihiv and Russia's Bryansk.
During the day on May 31st, Ukrainian defenders repelled 16 Russian attacks. The Russians were unsuccessful in assaults on Masyutivka (Kharkiv); Novoselivs'ke, Stel'makhivka, Bilohorivka (Luhansk); Orikhovo-Vasylivka, Bila Hora, Mar'yinka (Donetsk).
A train carrying the S-400 air defense system (at least a battery) arrived at the 25th Missile Arsenal in Stovbtsy, Minsk Oblast, Belarus. These systems are likely to be used by the Air Defense Forces of the Republic of Belarus, but remain under the operational control of the Russian Federation.
IAEA chief presents deal to protect Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia NPP. Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Rafael Grossi presented an updated agreement to protect the occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant at a May 30 meeting of the UN Security Council.
According to the State Agency for Reconstruction and Development of Infrastructure, Russia's armed aggression in Ukraine resulted in the destruction of 346 bridges, with 157 of them located on central government-owned roads. As of the end of May 2023, the agency has managed to rebuild 12 bridges.
Report from the front at Svatove-Kremmina with special RAI envoy, Stefania Battistini.
The Russian military command is preparing an offensive operation to seize Siversk and is concentrating a strike grouping for this purpose. Russian forces will try to surround Ukrainian Defense Forces in the Bilohorivka area.
Russia has claimed that its Armed Forces intercepted 29 British-made Storm Shadow missiles, but the OSINT community has rejected this claim.
Fire at oil refinery in Russia's Krasnodar likely caused by drone strike, officials say. A fire broke out at the Afipsky oil refinery in Russia's southern Krasnodar Krai region following what was likely a drone strike, the regional governor said overnight on May 31.
Governor says Russia's Belgorod Oblast again under fire. Governor of Russia's Belgorod Oblast Vyacheslav Gladkov said on Telegram overnight on May 31 that the city of Shebekino had been "shelled."
Russian PM: Nearly 1.5 million Ukrainians in occupied territories given Russian passports Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin said on May 30 that nearly 1.5 million Ukrainians in the occupied territories have been given Russian passports over the past nine months, according to Russian state news agency RIA Novosti.
Military intelligence: Russia building new facilities for sorting, storing bodies of its dead soldiers. Russia is building facilities for sorting and storing corpses of its soldiers killed during Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine, the Ukrainian military intelligence (HUR) claimed on May 31.
Russia sentences 4 Crimean Tatars to lengthy prison terms. A Russian military court in Rostov-on-Don sentenced four Crimean Tatars to lengthy prison terms on "terrorism" charges, the human rights group Crimean Solidarity announced on May 31.
Russia's paramilitary Wagner Group has been using Twitter and Facebook to recruit medics, drone operators and even psychologists to aid fighting operations, including in Ukraine, according to exclusive research seen by POLITICO. Job ads for Wagner, which has mercenaries operating in several countries, have reached nearly 120,000 views on the two social media platforms over the last ten months, according to Logically, a U.K. disinformation-focused research group.
Read the Washington Post article here.
Two Russian ships spotted loading Ukrainian grain, metal at port in occupied Berdiansk. Two Russian ships were spotted at the Port of Berdiansk on May 31 loading Ukrainian grain and metal, according to the exiled Berdiansk City Administration.
NYT: The Cathay Phoenix is not a lone rogue ship, but one of at least three tankers identified by The New York Times taking extraordinary steps to hide their true activity, a practice that helps them to elude U.S. government oversight and puts their American insurer at risk of violating recent sanctions on Russian crude oil. The ships use cutting-edge spoofing technology to make it appear they’re in one location when they’re really somewhere else. During at least 13 voyages, the three tankers pretended to be sailing west of Japan. In reality, they were at terminals in Russia and shipping oil to China.
General Staff: Russian forces in Luhansk Oblast threaten to withhold wages of workers who refuse to accept Russian passports. Ukrainian employees of a public institution in Russian-occupied Stanytsia Luhanska, Luhansk Oblast, were told by Russian forces that only those who have registered at a Russian bank would be able to receive their salary in June, the General Staff of Ukraine's Armed Forces reported on May 31.
Ukraine receives $1.25 billion in budget support from US. The U.S. has provided Ukraine with another $1.25 billion in budget support under the World Bank’s PEACE project, Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said on May 31.
The Department of Defense (DoD) announced additional security assistance to meet Ukraine's critical security and defense needs. This security assistance package also contains artillery, anti-armor capabilities, and ammunition, including tens of millions of rounds of small arms ammunition, valued at up to $300 million to help Ukraine continue to defend its sovereign territory.
French presidency at Globsec 2023 Bratislava: Emmanuel Macron is to make a diplomatic push to reassure central and eastern European countries that France understands that the continent’s security environment has been permanently changed by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. He called on the west to give Ukraine “tangible and credible” security guarantees. Stressing that Ukraine “is today protecting Europe”, Macron said it is in the west’s interest that Kyiv have security assurances from Nato, Agence France-Presse (AFP) reports.
“We have to build something between the security provided to Israel and full-fledged membership,” Macron said.
View full address here.
Germany orders closure of 4 out of 5 Russian consulates after Moscow expels German staff in retaliation for Moscow’s expulsion of German staff in Russia, the Associated Press reported on May 31.
A German MP, Alexander Müller, has called on his government to grant Ukraine's request to supply Taurus long-range cruise missiles. According to him, the decisive factor in this matter is the need on the Ukrainian side and the availability of appropriate stocks on the German side.
"If both are weighed and justified, then there is nothing to object to sending them [this kind of ammunition] so that Ukraine can continue to defend itself against Russia's attack, which violates international law," Müller added.
Austria to finance demining in Ukraine. Austria will finance demining equipment worth 2 million euros ($2.2 million) for Ukraine, the Austrian government announced in a statement. The news follows a public disagreement between the Austrian government and Austrian President Alexander Van der Bellen earlier this month over whether Austria should provide Ukraine help with civilian land mine removal given its position of military neutrality.
Read the Wall Street Journal article here.
EU to apply Magnitsky sanctions to nine Russians over jailing of dissident, Vladimir Kara-Murza. The outrage and momentum is building around the world over this shocking example of Putin’s repression.
Media: Italy to deliver new military aid package for Ukraine. Italy will provide Ukraine with another military aid package, the seventh since the beginning of Russia’s all-out war, Italian news outlet La Repubblica reported on May 30. The package’s contents and details on the transfer are classified, but there are speculations Rome would focus on providing additional air defense capabilities. The country plans to transfer a total of 60 M109 howitzers to Ukraine “in the near future,” the unnamed sources told the newspaper.
The European Union imposed sanctions against the son of the ex-Prosecutor General of Russia Yuri Chaika - Igor Chaika. The reason is the "destabilization" of the Republic of Moldova, according to the official journal of the EU. Chaika Jr. is responsible for funding "FSB projects aimed at destabilizing Moldova", in addition, he supported actions that "threaten the sovereignty, independence, democracy, rule of law and stability of the republic," the document says.
North Korea’s attempt to put a military reconnaissance satellite in space failed Wednesday when the second stage of the rocket malfunctioned, state-run Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) said. South Korea’s military said Pyongyang fired a “space projectile,” triggering emergency alerts in Seoul and Japan, weeks after North Korean leader Kim Jong Un ordered officials to prepare to launch the country’s first military reconnaissance satellite.
Edward Lucas, Sandu’s line-up: the Chişinău summit
Strategic intimacy” was the prospect laid out by French President Emmanuel Macron in May 2022, when he proposed the European Political Community (EPC). It was to be a “new European organization” that would allow countries “that subscribe to our shared core values to find a new space for … cooperation” on politics, security, energy, infrastructure, investment, and migration.
The EPC’s second summit will be this week in Moldova: a rare and welcome chance for that country to enjoy the international limelight. Among the likely excitements will be the newly re-elected Turkish president, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, catching up with his country’s allies and neighbors. Perhaps President Zelensky of Ukraine will succeed in charming the mercurial Turkish leader where others have failed.
But a pressing question for the EPC is about itself. Is it in effect an arm of the EU’s neighborhood policy: an elaborate anteroom for countries that may one day join the EU? Or does it have its own separate mission alongside the EU? More practically: should it continue to be run by a rotating presidency, or does it need a full-scale secretariat, or perhaps just a room in someone else’s office? [continue]
Vita Spivak, How Sanctions Have Changed the Face of Chinese Companies in Russia
The latest sanctions under discussion in the European Commission since May 8 would target several Chinese companies involved in supplying dual-use components to Russia. Those companies include several semiconductor producers that have already been sanctioned by the United States, such as 3HC Semiconductors and King-Pai Technology.
International sanctions regulators are likely to increase scrutiny this year, in particular of Chinese companies, many of which continue to operate in Russia, unlike their Western counterparts. The exodus of over 1,000 multinationals since Feb. 2022 in protest against Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine was prompted mainly by reputational rather than sanctions-related concerns. While some high-profile Chinese businesses that are facing sanctions pressure have limited their exposure to Russia, most Chinese companies that were already working in Russia have remained silent about the war, and some have even increased their presence.
Chinese business seems to be following the same pattern it learned during the previous eight years of working under Russian sanctions. Wherever possible, Chinese companies are taking advantage of the short-term benefits of the Russian market, while striving to comply with international sanctions. [continue]