Jun 1: E-Stories
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Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
Dear Readers, thanks for your patience.
May has been quite a month. E-Stories will resume its regular postings. I live in Italy, one of the most pro-Kremlin countries in Europe, so it’s important for me to do what I can in my own way for Ukraine and our partners. My thanks for those who have continued subscribing to EuroFile—it’s very much appreciated.
A shout out to my Mom who supports and reads E-Stories:
You are the person I look up to first and most for your heart, intelligence and morals, and you’ve guided me every step of the way. You’re a pioneer. You taught me to never cut corners, always stay the course, give your all, and keep learning.
Thanks Ma…
75 Ukrainian prisoners brought back from Russian captivity. The number includes service personnel of the Armed Forces and the National Guard, border guards, and four civilians. The soldiers had been in Russian captivity for two years.
Stories we’re following…
May 31: Russians launched a massive strike on Ukraine: 53 missiles were launched, 35 were shot down Energy facilities in Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kirovohrad, and Ivano-Frankivsk regions were hit.
President Zelensky responded to the mass Russian combined drone and missile attack on Ukraine, once again turning to Western partners:
Civilians, infrastructure, energy facilities. This is what Russia is at war with. Last night, another attack with more than 50 missiles of various types and about 50 Shahed drones was directed at the south, centre and west of Ukraine.
Russia's main goal is to normalise terror, to exploit the lack of sufficient air defence capabilities and the determination of Ukraine's partners.
Russian terrorists understand only the language of force. And the only way to stop this terror and prevent it from becoming the norm is to make timely and effective decisions. Full protection of Ukrainian skies must become the norm, so that the madmen in the Kremlin realise that their terror is not achieving its goals.
Russian drone attack causes partial blackout in Rivne Oblast. An overnight Russian drone attack caused a power outage in some parts of Rivne Oblast, Governor Oleksandr Koval reported on the morning of May 29.
Russian attacks on Nikopol kill 2 people, injure 2. Russian troops attacked the town of Nikopol in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast on May 29, killing two people and injuring two, Governor Serhii Lysak reported.
Epicenter shopping mall in Kharkiv after it was attacked by Russian missiles on May 26. Completely destroyed.
Russian attack on Sumy Oblast kills 2. A Russian rocket attack on the village of Krasnopillia in Sumy Oblast killed two civilians and injured three others, Sumy Oblast Military Administration reported on May 29.
Death toll in Russia's May 25 attack on Kharkiv rises to 19, Governor says. The man had suffered severe burns over 50% of his body as a result of the strike and ensuing fire, Governor Oleh Syniehubov said.
Noel Report: Trajectory of the missiles and drones that attacked Ukraine. Russians are obsessed with Starokostiantyniv Air Base. Good to see that missiles bypass Kyiv region again, hinting towards resupplied air defense there.
Combat Situation Update
Governor fears Russia may renew attack in another direction in Kharkiv Oblast. Russian forces may undertake attacks in the northwestern part of Kharkiv Oblast, Kharkiv Oblast Governor Oleh Syniehubov told journalists on May 29.
ISW: Russian forces recently marginally advanced NE of Kharkiv City amid continued positional fighting north & NE of the city. Geolocated footage posted on May 31 shows that Russian forces recently marginally advanced within the eastern outskirts of Vovchansk.
CIT team stated on May 30 that restrictions on Ukraine's ability to use Western-provided weapons to strike targets in Russia have allowed Russian forces to freely operate Lancet loitering munitions just across the border in Belgorod Oblast.
Luhansk: Russian forces continued offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line on May 31, but there were no confirmed changes to the frontline. A Russian milblogger claimed on May 31 that Russian forces entered Myasozharivka.
Russian forces recently advanced near Avdiivka amid ongoing Russian offensive operations in the area on May 31.
On the night of May 29-30, Russia reportedly lost one 1L119 Nebo-SVU Early Warning radar worth about $100 million, after it was hit by SBU drones. This radar near Armyansk in occupied Crimea, controlled a 380km section of the front.
SBU drones destroyed Russia's long-range radar in Crimea, sources say. Sources from Ukrainian intelligence services told the Kyiv Independent that the system was worth around $100 million.
May 30: an attack on occupied Kerch, Crimea happened. Russian channels report that around 20 explosions were heard. According to the Russian installed advisor to the governor of occupied Crimea, two ferries got damaged due to falling debris.
Ukraine strikes ferry crossing, oil depots in Russia's Krasnodar Krai, General Staff says. Ukrainian forces struck a ferry crossing and an oil depot at Port Kavkaz in Russia's Krasnodar Krai overnight on May 31, the General Staff of Ukraine's Armed Forces reported.
Ukraine can use Netherlands' F-16s to strike inside Russia as self-defense, Dutch minister says. The comments come a day after Denmark said Ukraine may use Danish-supplied F-16 jets to strike military targets in Russian territory, as this would be "within the rules of war."
Politico: Ukraine can strike inside Russia with American arms near entire northern border, US official says. “The recommendations apply to the northern border in Kharkiv and Sumy oblasts, where Russian forces are firing on Ukraine,” said Michael Carpenter, senior director for Europe at the U.S. National Security Council.
Emmanuel Macron, during a press conference in Germany, alongside Chancellor Olaf Scholz, said that he believes that Ukraine must be enabled to neutralize the Russian military sites from which missiles are fired into Ukraine.
The infograph: The EU election campaigns are in full swing in Italy, and the government’s stand of NOT allowing its weapons to be used to strike Russian war-related infrastructure or sensitive sites, tells us that, with the exception of ONE party, they are all courting their electorate. Whether Italians truly understand the geostrategic implications or not, the fact remains that Italian TV is filled with commentators who believe that allowing Ukraine to defend itself from incoming missile strikes is ‘escalation’. NATO chief, Jens Stoltenberg, affirmed yesterday that this is not the case:
“Self-defence is not escalation. Self-defence is a fundamental right. It is enshrined in the UN Charter. Ukraine has the right and the responsibility to protect its people, and we have the right to help Ukraine uphold its right to self-defence.”
Italian pro-Kremlin voices are probably getting their cue from Medvedev: Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev once again threatened the West with the use of nuclear weapons, stating that it is not a bluff. He warned of the escalating conflict with NATO and the possibility of the conflict reaching its final stage due to increasing NATO weaponry in Ukraine. This statement follows the Pentagon's permission for Ukraine to use U.S. weapons against military targets in Russia near Kharkiv.
"(Russian President Vladimir) Putin is training his people for war and positioning them against the West. We must, therefore, become capable of defense as quickly as possible," Strack-Zimmermann, a member of the co-ruling Free Democratic Party (FDP), said in a comment for the Funke media group published on June 1.
Lithuania open to training Ukrainian soldiers in Ukraine, Lithuanian PM says. "This is a long-standing exercise in which we train Ukrainian soldiers. We trained them before this invasion, and this is a long-lasting cooperation between our military forces and the Ukrainian military forces," Ingrida Simonyte said
"The AFU is planning a large-scale use of toxic substances and is stocking up on antidotes, gas masks and other means of defense," TASS reports with a reference to the Russian Defense Ministry. (Me: I think they’re telling us that Russia is getting ready to use chemical weapons. They usually signal in this way. Let’s see what happens.)
Behind the Lines
Reuters: China won't attend Ukraine's global peace summit, Reuters reports. One source said China had insisted the summit should be recognised by both Russia and Ukraine and both countries should participate.
US accuses China of 'every support' for Russia's war in Ukraine, threatens more sanctions. The U.S. has accused China of giving Russia "every support behind the scenes" towards its war in Ukraine, describing its actions as "destabilizing in the heart of Europe."
China denies supplying Russia with weapons for use in Ukraine. The denial comes after the U.S. earlier this week accused China of giving Russia "every support behind the scenes" towards its war in Ukraine, describing its actions as "destabilizing in the heart of Europe."
US announces new sanctions against 2 mining companies in Central African Republic over links to Wagner. U.S. State Department Spokesperson Matthew Miller commented on the sanctions, saying that the companies were "advancing the Kremlin-backed Wagner Group's security operations and its illicit mining endeavors in Africa."
The United States condemns in the strongest possible terms the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea’s (DPRK) May 27 and May 29 launches using ballistic missile technology in direct violation of multiple UN Security Council resolutions (UNSCRs). These launches continue the DPRK’s reckless behavior, which poses a grave threat to the Korean Peninsula, the region, and international peace and security and undermine the global non-proliferation regime. The United States reiterates that its commitments to the defense of the ROK and Japan are ironclad.
Sri Lanka will tighten controls to try to stop its men being lured to Russia to fight in Ukraine with often false promises of salaries and benefits, a minister said on Thursday. Under the new controls, men will have to produce a “no-objection” document from the Sri Lankan defence ministry when they apply for a tourist visa to Russia, state minister for foreign affairs, Tharaka Balasuriya, told reporters. He said:
I get about ten calls a day from people about this issue. We have reports of people being promised pay but it’s not credited to their accounts.
Some people have taken loans to go and aren’t able to pay them back. They are facing many hardships and we want to find a way to bring them back.
PM Tusk says Poland will create buffer zone at Belarusian border following attack on border guard. The announcement came after a Polish soldier was left in critical condition after being stabbed through the border fence with a makeshift spear the previous day.
The Polish press agency has probably been the target of a Russian cyberattack, Jacek Dobrzynski, spokesperson of the minister coordinating special services, said.
Noel Report: Seems like military aid has now really reached the front lines. "The HIMARS crews are just astonished by the number of missiles that have arrived in Ukraine, saying they have never seen so many."
Financial Times: The Czech company Czechoslovak Group warns that rising prices and poor quality mean half of the shells it receives cannot be sent to Ukraine promptly. CSG plans to start supplying shells in June but faces issues with shells from Africa and Asia, requiring additional processing.
Belgian, French police raid European Parliament employee’s properties amid Russian propaganda investigation. Police in Belgium and France have conducted raids on properties and an office connected to an employee of the European Parliament due to indications he played a "significant role" in promoting Russian propaganda, the Belgian Federal Public Prosecutor's Office reported on May 29.
Italy has dished out the most visas to Russian citizens in 2023. Why am I not surprised? The Italian government is asking for trouble.
Baltic Members of Parliament warned German government that if the Russians manage to achieve a strategic breakthrough in eastern Ukraine because the West is only half-heartedly helping Ukraine, the Baltic states and Poland would not wait until Russian troops were deployed on their border, they would send troops into Ukraine themselves.
About 41% of European Union resolutions regarding Ukraine were blocked by Hungary, Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielus Landsbergis criticized Hungary for blocking key decisions at the level of the European Union.
Russia blackmailing some leaders ahead of Ukraine's peace summit, Zelensky says. "At this moment, we already have about a hundred states and international organizations that will participate in the summit, but Russia is blackmailing some leaders and trying to block the participation of some countries," President Volodymyr Zelensky said.
Moldovan Parliament declares Russia's policies toward Ukraine as genocide. Sixty members of parliament, including 59 from the ruling Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS), voted in favor of the declaration. Parties with close ties with Moscow refused to participate in the vote.
A building at Putin's dacha in the Altai Republic is on fire. This residence hosted former Italian Prime Minister Berlusconi in 2015.
Meanwhile in Russia
Russia to increase taxes on companies and wealthy individuals to further fund war against Ukraine. The Russian Finance Ministry has proposed substantial tax increases on corporations and wealthy individuals to generate about 2.6 trillion rubles annually, to address the fiscal deficit following the full-scale invasion in Ukraine.
Bloomberg: Russian commodity companies trying to conduct financial transactions with their Chinese counterparts have started using a new method of concluding agreements - stablecoins. In addition, they began to trade in barter.
Alibaba stops accepting rubles, shipping to Russia. Chinese multinational Alibaba, the owner of the online shopping portal AliExpress, has stopped accepting payments in rubles and no longer allows the delivery of orders to Russia, Russian business newspaper Kommersant reported on May 28.
"They should be aware of what they are playing with," Putin responded on the current debate to allow Ukraine to strike within Russia with Western supplied weapons.
During a press meeting in Uzbekistan, Putin said that NATO representatives, especially in Europe and elsewhere, should be aware of what they are playing with when speculating about the possibility of strikes with precision weapons on Russian territory. He emphasized that the constant escalation of the conflict, including strikes on peaceful city quarters, would lead to serious consequences.
WSJ: The Alabuga factory in Russia plans to produce 6000 Shahed-type drones per year. At the end of April this year, the factory was ahead of its production schedule, having already supplied 4,500. Technicians are recruited in Africa, mostly women in Uganda. Over a thousand women have since gone to Alabuga all over Africa, an additional thousand students will likely join this year’s intake, say Ugandan officials. Russian drone operators are being trained in Syria by instructors from both the Revolutionary Guard and Iran-backed militant group Hezbollah.
Some Russian propaganda for a chuckle.
Lukashenko suspends Belarus's involvement in Conventional Armed Forces treaty. Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko signed a law suspending Belarus's involvement in the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (CFE), which was designed to establish limits on the number of arms and equipment in NATO and Warsaw Pact countries.
Chechen man arrested in France for plotting terrorist attack on Olympics, authorities say. The French Interior Ministry did not provide any more details but said it was the first terrorist plot targeting the Olympics that had been foiled.
Julia Davis—Meanwhile in Russia: reluctant would-be soldiers and families of the dead who perished in Putin's imperial invasion of Ukraine are now being regaled with fairytales of imminent "resurrection."
The Hungarian government signed an agreement with Belarus on assistance in the construction of the Paksh-2 nuclear power plant, which is being built by the Russian state corporation Rosatom.
EU imposes sanctions on Iranian individuals, entities involved in transfer of drones to Russia. The European Council adopted new sanctions on May 31 targeting six individual and three entities from Iran who are involved in the transfer of drones to support Russia's war effort in Ukraine.
UK Defence has produced this info-video, which deals with the issue of Russia’s labour shortage. E-Stories brought this problem to the fore thanks to the assessments of our internal data cruncher, Madi Kapparov. We’re very pleased that UK Defence has reached the same conclusions.
Allied Support
President Zelensky met with the Nordic states at the Ukraine-Northern Europe Summit in Stockholm yesterday to sign long-term bilateral security agreements.
Zelensky, speaking alongside Nordic leaders, said that he is grateful to the northern countries for their support. Ukraine is doing everything to establish a just peace as soon as possible, he said. Putin can still expand terror against Ukrainian cities and villages, and is preparing more military force near Ukraine’s borders, he said. Zelenskiy said:
The key to positive changes for us on the front and in the war overall is air defence, of course.
We must do everything to destroy Russian combat aircraft, just as we are already destroying Russian warships in the Black Sea region.
For this, we need patriot air defence systems. And today we talked about how to speed up delivery of patriot systems to Ukraine. And I thank my colleagues for their understanding.
Ukraine to receive 1st tranche of frozen Russian assets revenue this summer, EU official says. The legal framework within which the funds will be transferred is still in progress, according to David O'Sullivan. The EU sanctions envoy hopes that the decision will be made in "a few weeks."
May 27: Spain will supply weapons to Ukraine for more than €1.1 billion. It will include a second batch of Patriot anti-aircraft missiles, 19 refurbished Leopard 2A4 tanks, a large batch of 155-millimeter artillery shells as well as anti-drone systems, tactical vehicles, optronic surveillance and reconnaissance equipment, remotely operated weapon towers, embarked mortars and portable rocket launchers, among other equipment. Most of the aid will be manufactured specifically by Spanish industry. In addition, Spain will extend the combat training program for Ukrainian soldiers to another 400 recruits, of which 4,000 have already been trained under the direction of the Toledo Training Coordination Center
Danish Defense Minister Troels Lund Poulsen initiated a joint appeal to the EU together with colleagues from Sweden, Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, the Netherlands and Poland regarding the integration of Ukraine into the European defense complex.
Le Monde: Macron wants to form a European coalition for military training in Ukraine. Discussions are underway, and an announcement is expected during President Zelenskyi's visit for the 80th Normandy landing anniversary on June 6-7.
Commander in Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi confirms the French initiative to send instructors to Ukraine to train Ukrainian military personnel.
"I have already signed the documents that will allow the first French instructors to visit our training centers soon and familiarize themselves with their infrastructure and staff," he said.
Jan Lipavský, the Czech foreign minister, has called for a strategic approach to Russia’s meddling. “Constant hybrid warfare. Cyber attacks. Lie-poisoned propaganda. Espionage under diplomatic cover. Russia is sowing seeds of chaos globally,” he said.
CNN: A Manhattan jury found Donald Trump guilty on all 34 counts of falsifying business records he faced in his New York hush money criminal trial. Trump is the first president in US history to be convicted of a felony. Prosecutors accused Trump of taking part in an illegal conspiracy to undermine the integrity of the 2016 election and an unlawful plan to suppress negative information, which included concealing a hush money payment to adult film star Stormy Daniels. Judge Juan Merchan set a sentencing hearing for July 11.
The GOP and Trump acolytes are thrashing around trying to paint the judicial process as illegitimate. In Italy, we’ve been there, and done that. Trump has been convicted. End of story: the rest is just noise.
If using the term 'vaporized' doesn't give them away then what does? It makes the news sound like a comic book! 😂 I wonder how much they depend on AI for this sort of thing? Given how binary and rough it is (and probably even more so with translations between languages?) could we expect more of these poorly constructed headlines?
Your mum should be so proud of all you're doing! Thanks for keeping us up to date and for doing so in a rather challenging environment. I had no idea Italy was so supportive (or at least open) to Russia and Russian influence.
The half-million estimated Russian casualties is not "staggering" at all. In fact, it's nothing. One of the very earliest Eastern Front battles of WWII, the First battle of Smolensk (summer of 1941) saw Russia lose that many, plus another quarter-million wounded. Just in one battle. The next few battles with the Germans each inflicted similar casualties. At the time, these were not seen by Russia as "losses" -- just normal war stuff. Today, the 500,000 gone so far are also not seen as losses in Russia; it's understood as simply what happens when you face Nazis.