Jun 10: Saturday Stories
Day 471: KakhovaSitRep Bakhmut Kharkiv Horlivka Typhoons grain Zapo Voronezh Belgorod RUrecruitment RUdomestic occupiedterr Iran ROC Sweden $2B ROM Trump A&P SSU SkyNews Maxar Stolenberg Davis
Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
Stories we’re following…
Governor: Flood water levels in Kherson Oblast begin to fall. The flood water level on the right bank of the Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast fell by 20 centimeters overnight, Governor Oleksandr Prokudin reported on June 6.
Maria Avdeeva: People are posting horrible images from the coastline of Odesa. Water from Dnipro continues to flow along with wreckage of houses, dead animals, gas cylinders, mines.
State Emergency Service: 2,339 residents evacuated from Kherson Oblast. According to the State Emergency Service, 2,339 people, including 120 children, were evacuated from the flooded areas of Kherson Oblast by June 8, 8:45 local time.
Official: Ukrainian exports through Dnipro River won't be possible 'for a long time.' As a result of the Kakhovka dam destruction, the Dnipro River will not be navigable downstream of the city of Zaporizhzhia "for a long time," Shipping Administration Head Yevhenii Ihnatenko said on June 8. This will effectively block Ukrainian exports through the Dnipro River.
Ukraine and the U.N. reached an agreement to deploy the organization's personnel to the flood-affected left bank of the Dnipro River, illegally occupied by Russia.
Russian sabotage group blew up Kakhovka dam; it didn’t go as planned, SBU intercept alleges Two Russian militarymen are heard discussing the explosion, which is said to be an operation to “scare” that went wrong.
Denmark sends humanitarian aid for victims of dam explosion in Kherson Oblast. The Danish FM announced on June 8 that it would send disaster aid to Ukraine in the wake of the humanitarian crisis caused by Russia's destruction of the Kakhovka dam in Kherson Oblast. The Japanese PM, Fumio Kishida, has told Zelensky that Japan is ready to offer emergency humanitarian.
The New York Times is reporting that a senior Biden administration official has said that US spy satellites detected an explosion at the Kakhovka dam just before it collapsed.
Russia has prepared another information operation to discredit Ukraine and its military and political leadership, namely the tragedy at the Kakhovka hydroelectric power station. “As part of this campaign, a number of provocative materials have been prepared, which, according to the authors, should shift responsibility for the undermining of the Kakhovka hydroelectric power station dam onto Ukraine and create the preconditions for a political crisis", reports Ukraine’s intelligence. Comments from fake accounts will be posted under each story, allegedly on behalf of Ukrainian and foreign readers. They are supposed to create the impression of a "live" discussion and engage real users of the network in the discussion.
Some of the clickbait posts will include comments such as:
"The explosion of the dam should 'wash away' Zelenskyy";
"Zelenskyy is doing everything to stop being 'our bastard'";
"Blowing up the dam will drown Zelenskyy and Ukraine".
Military reports advance near Bakhmut. Ukrainian troops have advanced up to 1,200 meters in some areas in the Bakhmut direction, Serhii Cherevaty, spokesperson for the eastern command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, said on June 9. US officials confirm Ukraine advances near Bakhmut but suffers losses. Although Kyiv's troops managed to overrun Russians in some areas, they encountered heavier resistance than expected, according to the report.
Suspilne reports that an explosion has been heard in Kharkiv, stating it was “probably outside the city limits”. "The occupiers launched a missile attack on the outskirts of Kharkiv. Reportedly from an S-300 system", Oleh Syniehubov, Head of the Kharkiv Oblast Military Administration reported on Telegram.
On Friday, 9 June, Russian forces conducted unsuccessful offensive operations on the Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka and Marinka fronts; a total of 27 combat engagements occurred between Russian and Ukrainian forces.
Russian missile attack in Zhytomyr Oblast kills 1, injures 3, Governor Vitalii Bunechko reported on June 9.
Zelensky: 'Brutal battles' taking place in Donetsk Oblast. Intense battles are taking place in Ukraine's eastern Donetsk Oblast, President Volodymyr Zelensky said in a video address on June 8, amid reports that Ukraine's much-anticipated counteroffensive to regain territory is now underway. Oleg Sinegubov, the head of the military administration of the Kharkiv region, reports that more than 21 Ukrainian tanks had been destroyed in battles across key sections of the frontline.
A successful strike by the Ukrainian Defense Forces on Horlivka and Yasynuvata could potentially result in the loss of the entire line of Russian defense on the Donetsk front, including Donetsk and Makiyivka.
Sky News: RAF Typhoons have intercepted Russian aircrafts flying close to Nato airspace twice in the last 24 hours.
Russia’s main forces, previously positioned 40-60 km away from the front line on the Zaporizhzhia direction, comprising 8 to 10 brigades, have been deployed to the front line to reinforce the defensive positions. This move has led to the utilization of approximately one-third of the enemy's grouping reserves.
Ukraine downs 4 cruise missiles, 10 drones launched by Russia. Ukrainian air defenses shot down four of six cruise missiles and ten of 16 drones that Russia used to attack military facilities and critical infrastructure overnight on June 9, the Air Force of Ukraine's Armed Forces reported.
Russia has enough missiles for key targets like Kyiv. Russia can produce enough missiles to continue strikes against key targets like Kyiv, the military intelligence spokesperson Andrii Yusov told Ukrainska Pravda in an interview published on June 8.
Two people were wounded on Friday in an apparent drone strike in Voronezh, Reuters reports regional governor Alexander Gusev said. Voronezh is about 180 km (110 miles) from the Ukrainian border, and borders Russia’s Kursk and Belgorod regions, both of which have been frequently subject to cross-border shelling from Ukraine.
The territory [of the RF] captured by the Russian Volunteer Corps and Free Russia Legion extends up to 200 km along the front line and 5-10 km in depth. They have targeted the Urazove railway station, which is critical for the enemy's logistical supply in the northern part of Luhansk Oblast. Intense fighting is ongoing in Nova Tavilzhanka.
Russian deputy PM Marat Khusnullin said on Friday that Crimea’s water supply will not be affected by the destruction of the Kakhovka dam in southern Ukraine, the RIA news agency reported. Reuters cites the agency quoting him as saying that Crimea’s reservoirs were full and that the peninsula had enough water reserves for 500 days.
Residents of St. Petersburg began to be notified of the receipt of a summons to the military registration and enlistment office via SMS, the Rotunda reports. The messages indicate that it is necessary to come to the military registration and enlistment office to verify documents. However, those citizens who come to the commissariat are offered to conclude a contract with the Ministry of Defense.
Russia will start deploying tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus after the facilities are ready on 7-8 July, president Vladimir Putin told his Belarusian counterpart Alexander Lukashenko on Friday in a meeting in Sochi, Russia.
NGO: Chechen security forces blackmailing men who refuse to fight in Ukraine. Russia is forcibly conscripting men in Chechnya to fight in Ukraine, imprisoning those who refuse and threatening their families, the "Severny Kavkaz SOS” (North Caucasus SOS) crisis group reported.
The human rights movement "Crimean Idea" report that Russian military forces in the temporarily occupied northern part of the Crimean Peninsula are obstructing farmers from cultivating fields. Additionally, residents of coastal areas have been warned that the resort season will not take place. The report also highlights that "Crimean Idea" experts have gathered evidence of property seizure from children's camps.
Against the backdrop of the ongoing war in Ukraine, the Russians withdrew a record amount of savings to foreign banks. According to the Central Bank, from May 2022 to May 2023, foreign accounts of Russian citizens were replenished by 3.28 trillion rubles, and the amount of funds for them increased by 131%. In total, Russians hold 5.79 trillion rubles abroad. This is the highest figure since the publication of such reports by the Central Bank since 2018.
This image, provided by Maxar Technologies and released by The White House, shows an industrial site several hundred miles east of Moscow where US intelligence officials believe Russia – with Iran’s help – is building a factory to produce attack drones for use in its ongoing invasion of Ukraine. US officials believe the plant in Russia’s Alabuga special economic zone could be operational by early next year.
Russian Orthodox Church claims transfer of Ukraine's POWs to Hungary. The Russian Orthodox Church announced through its press service on June 8 that it handed over a group of Ukrainian prisoners of war to Hungary.
The Prosveschenie publishing house has presented a textbook on the Fundamentals of Life Safety (OBZH) for grade 10 with a module of basic military training (NVP), TASS reports . First, schoolchildren will be taught "drill training and military salute", and then "rules for handling infantry encirclement and actions in combined arms combat." Also, in case of participation in the war, high school students will take a first aid course in battle.
A Levada Centre poll reveals that Russians hold the most negative view of the U.S. (77%), E.U. (72%), and Ukraine (74%), while the most favorable views are of China (87%) and Iran (69%). The Russians believe that their top allies are Belarus (77%), China (58%), India (31%), Kazakhstan (26%), and Armenia (16%).
Steve Rosenberg: Oleg Orlov faces jail time for criticising Putin's war. Oleg Orlov has been an outspoken critic of both wars the Kremlin is currently waging: the war in Ukraine and, back home, the war on dissent. "The scale of repression is reminiscent of the era of Leonid Brezhnev. But by the level of cruelty & length of prison terms, it's like Stalin's time," Oleg Orlov tells me as the Russian human rights defender is tried for ‘discrediting’ the Russian army. [continue]
Sweden will allow Nato to base troops on its territory even before it formally joins the defence alliance, the prime minister and defence minister said on Friday.
“The government has decided that the Swedish Armed Forces may undertake preparations with Nato and Nato countries to enable future joint operations,” prime minister Ulf Kristersson and defence minister Pal Jonson said.
“The preparations may consist of temporary basing of foreign equipment and personnel on Swedish territory. The decision sends a clear signal to Russia and strengthens Sweden’s defence,” Reuters reports they said in an opinion piece in daily Dagens Nyheter.
Edward Hunter Christie: Ben Wallace is being put forward as a candidate for the post of NATO Secretary General. He has been a remarkably competent leader on achieving and driving support to Ukraine, not just fro]m the UK, but also in coordinating internationally to achieve more. He faces stiff competition, however, as recent noises suggest a preference for Mette Frederiksen, the current Prime Minister of Denmark. [continue]
The Pentagon announces a long-term arms package for Ukraine worth more than $2 billion, including a large number of air defense missiles, as reported by Bloomberg, according to Ukrinform. The money will be used under the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative to purchase two different types of advanced Patriot air defense missiles, as well as Hawk launchers and missiles.
Romania reduced the number of the Russian Embassy's employees (by 51) to the number it enjoys in Moscow. Romania demanded Russia reduce the number of its Embassy (diplomatic and technical personnel) by fifty-one, the number Romanian Embassy enjoys in Moscow. Such a move aligns with the Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations of 1961.
Politico: Duda, Scholz, Macron to meet in Paris, discuss security guarantees for Ukraine. Politico reported that several anonymous French officials confirmed German chancellor and Polish president were expected in Paris on June 12 to discuss security guarantees for Ukraine.
Julia Davis: Meanwhile in Russia—military expert Evgeny Buzhinsky proposes destroying Kyiv dam and razing the city to the ground.
Andrew A Michta: regional balancing with be key
After the thread I posted here where I argued that rather than a new bipolarity the world is tracking for a period of protracted instability and conflict, where regional balancing will be key, I have been asked to explain my argument in more detail. So, a few key points:
First, we are in a period of considerable uncertainty about relative power distribution worldwide, especially when it comes to where the US and China are in relative terms. We can assess traditional power indices, but we still struggle to assess relative vulnerabilities.
Second, uncertainty about the relative power balance in the system encourages the key players to assume that we might have already entered a power-transition cycle, and to leverage this opportunity the principal powers become more prone to take risk, fueling conflict.
Historically, uncertainty about the relative balance of power has driven states to apply pressure first in regions seen as “contestable,” rather than confronting directly another great power. Today, think Russia attacking Ukraine; or China applying pressure on Taiwan.
In both cases, the regional power balance in Europe and Asia is being contested by Russia and China, respectively. If they succeed, their regional “wins” will in turn shape the global equation, but likely without eliminating the residual uncertainty about systemic polarity.
Historically, a global balance of power re-set, i.e., a new polarity established or the pre-existing polarity reaffirmed, has involved a direct confrontation between the principal powers. Examples: WWI, WWII, the Cold War—in each case the great powers were in direct conflict.
A kinetic conflict between the principal great powers has typically accompanied such a structural systemic re-set, but not always. The end of the Cold War, for instance witnessed a fundamental systemic re-set and the fracturing of the Soviet Union without an all-out war.
However, typically during periods of uncertainty about the overall power distribution in the system, a great power contesting a regional power balance risks triggering a confrontation with another great power; Putin’s miscalculation in Ukraine is a good example of this.
As the war in Ukraine unfolds, developments on the ground will likely lead up to a binary outcome (win/lose), even if intermediary steps (armistice) could materialize. So the outcome in Ukraine will transform the regional balance of power in Europe and reverberate worldwide.
Still, no great power today seems ready for an all-out confrontation (Putin has avoided challenging NATO directly; China, while asserting its claim to Taiwan, needs more time to prepare.) Absent a miscalculation that leads to escalation—systemic instability will continue.
Jim Sciutto, Trump indicted on 38 counts vs the Espionage Act
This is a 38-count indictment against Donald Trump, including 31 counts of Willful Retention of National Defense Information. The documents involved include Top Secret/NOFORN (that is, no access to foreign nationals) markings and highly sensitive subject matters.
Including “nuclear capabilities of foreign countries”, “military attacks by a foreign country”, “military activities and planning of foreign countries,” “military capabilities of a foreign country.”
It goes on: “concerning nuclear weaponry of the United States”, “concerning White House intelligence briefing relayed to various foreign countries.”
Read the indictment here.