Jun 12: E-Stories
Day 467: MoOpEd Blagodatne Rostselmash Sturgeon Klishchiivaka Kurdyumivka Blagodatne Belgorold Shoigu HUNpows 84% US CND MOL NATO A&P ISW Tendar Avdeeva MacKinnon Gic Davidzon Insider Walton
Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
Please note: EuroFile will be published in a reduced format for the till June 16. E-Stories will return in full format with the July 17 post.
The defeat of the Russian armed forces in Ukraine will not materialise over night. It would be unrealistic to predict that by day ‘X’ the Ukrainian forces will have liberated its territory of the Russian terrorists. Over the past weeks, media outlets have debated over when and if the counteroffensive would be underway, and some analysts have framed the counteroffensive as Ukraine’s ‘last chance’. This is the new counteroffensive but these analysts do not understand war.
If they do this, it is arguably the most impressive military achievement in a conventional war in the 20th and 21st centuries.
The Russians began this war in 2014, and it’s made up of a series of campaigns: We are witnessing a new campaign. What is happening in Ukraine is not a streaming service TV series or film that starts at 9:00 p.m. and is over in two hours. Ukrainian defense may lose positions and regain them. We will cry when settlements are liberated and when they temporarily fall. There will be much more hardship and terrorist acts by the Russian forces. Please read Mick Ryan’s post for today because he eloquently sets out what campaigns and the overall war may look like based on his years of expertise.
What I don’t understand is why Ukraine’s allies (yes, our countries) aren’t providing all necessary defensive means to the Ukrainian forces to defeat Russia and liberate Ukrainian territory. I also don’t understand why we are not depriving Russia of the financial oxygen needed to continue its war: total embargo on oil and gas, total embargo on diamonds, closure of all embassies and consulates, follow-through on sanctions, among many other measures. Wagner’s extraction industry (oil and gold) in the CAR and Syria bring in 100s of millions of roubles to Russian coffers: I sincerely hope that we are thinking of ways to shut them down. By continuing to allow Russia access those funds and information, I fear that our leaders are more concerned with keeping Russian leadership in place, than liberating Ukraine of Russian terrorism.
To keep up with the location of various army corps and axes, I recommend you subscribe to Centre for Defence Strategies’s daily snapshot, which includes forensic information on everything that is happening in Ukraine.
Stories we’re following…
Ukrainian forces launch counteroffensive operations in multiple fronts. Ukrainian forces engaged in counteroffensive operations in several areas of the front line on June 10, the Institute for the Study of War said in their latest assessment.
This is the Velyka Novosilka axis:
Neskuchne, Storozheve, Blahodatne, Makarivka and Levadne liberated. Either visually confirmed or by Ukrainian officals / multiple Russian sources.
Novodarivka/Rivnopil unclear, but most likely liberated. Needs confirmation.
Staromaoirs'ke/Urozhaine is up next
The Russian military concentrates its main efforts on the defense of the Zaporizhzhia direction, and they have failed to stabilize the front line in the Bakhmut direction.
By cross-referencing Ukrainian and Russian milblog source information, the map below by @Tendar shows the rate of the advance of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the central part of the attack in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. The Ukrainian forces are not advancing in the same way on other fronts. The successful advancement of the Ukrainian Defense Forces in the areas of Klishchiivka and Kurdyumivka threatens the further hold of Russian forces of their positions along the Siversky Donets-Donbas canal in the Ivanovski Forest - Andriivka sector.
Reports of Russian casualties as they 'withdraw through their own minefields,' per UK intel. Russian military performance has been "mixed" in the last 48 hours of fighting, as there are an increasing number of reports of Russian casualties as they "withdraw through their own minefields," according to UK intel.
“We’re seeing the first results of the counter-offensive actions, localized results,” Valeryi Shershen, spokesperson for Ukraine’s “Tavria” military sector, said on television.
The 68th Jaeger Brigade of Ukrainian armed forces liberated the settlement of Blagodatne, Donetsk region. This was done by soldiers of the 68th separate hunting brigade named after Oleksy Dovbush in interaction with neighboring units.
"There are even facts that in this village, the Ukrainian population was waiting for the Armed Forces, people who were in captivity when the mop-up operation took place, saw our soldiers, came out, hugged, shed tears... It was a very poignant moment," the spokesman said.
Ukrainian forces have also liberated Makarovka settlement in the Donetsk region - Hanna Malyar, Deputy Defense Minister.
Ukraine appears to have destroyed two Russian thermobaric rocket launchers, using US artillery. Russia has been using them to strike Ukrainian positions in recent days to stall the counteroffensive. If Ukraine continues to damage these systems, it could affect Russia's defensive capabilities, ISW said.
The Rostselmash plant which produces agricultural machinery in Rostov-on-Don caught fire on June 11.
Kherson- Kakhova Dam: 2 towns and villages on the right bank are still submerged, with 3,784 residential buildings underwater. By Saturday evening, a total of 2,699 individuals, including 178 children and 67 individuals with reduced mobility, were successfully evacuated from at-risk areas. In the city of Kherson, over 15,000 consumers are currently experiencing power outages due to the flooding. In Mykolaiv Oblast, 13 towns and villages have been affected by the floods, and over 2,000 consumers are currently without electricity in that region as well. The Russian authorities on the left bank have evacuated only Russian passport holding citizens.
Three people were killed and 10 were wounded when Russian forces shelled a boat carrying evacuees from flooded occupied territory to the Ukrainian-controlled city of Kherson, Reuters has just reported.
Russian proxies face water supply problems in Crimea following Kakhovka dam destruction. After the destruction of Kakhovka Dam, Russian-occupied Crimea is facing serious water supply problems, the Ukrainian military's National Resistance Center reported on June 10.
The Russian occupiers blew up a dam on the Mokri Yaly River in Donetsk Oblast, causing flooding on both sides of the river, Valerii Shershen, the spokesperson for the Tavriia Front Defence Forces reported. Shershen added:
In Zaporizhzhia Oblast, they expected a breakthrough by the Defence Forces, so to slow down our advance, they resorted to this tactic when they blew up the hydroelectric facility on the Mokri Yaly River again.
The explosion on the railway tracks in the Crimea occurred right in front of the train, Baza writes. Earlier it was reported that it was a freight train.
Russia Defense Minister Shoigu tries to assert control of Wagner Group and other Russian mercenaries, with decree requiring all "volunteer detachments" to conclude a contract with the Ministry before July 1. According to Russia’s Deputy Defence Minister Nikolay Pankov, the move will give these companies “the necessary legal status, create unified approaches to organising comprehensive provisions and fulfilment of tasks”. [Monique: the presence of disjointed ‘private military companies’ acting on their own adds to the difficulties of coordinated arms maneuvres for the Russians. This decree addresses this issue, and imposes control mechanisms on the units themselves. Allowing PMCs to operate independently worked in Syria and other countries where they operate, but not in Ukraine owing to the scale of operations.]
Russia’s most powerful mercenary said on Sunday that his Wagner fighters would not sign any contract with Russian defence minister Sergei Shoigu just hours after the defence ministry sought to bring volunteer detachments under its sway.
“Shoigu cannot properly manage military formations,” Prigozhin said, adding that Wagner coordinated its actions in Ukraine with general Sergei Surovikin, nicknamed “General Armageddon” by the Russian media.
Monique’s fun fact: The leadership of the Russian armed forces is much less powerful than the Russian intelligence services and all their branches. This is why we are seeing powerplays between the military and the irregular army (Wagner), and not the intelligence services. Much of the fiasco in this war will be attributed to the military, and we’ve seen from the early days of Russia’s full-scale invasion a slew of generals who have lost their jobs and, in some cases, their lives. It is plausible that if there were ever a change in leadership, that person would continue to come from the ranks of the intelligence services or chosen by them.
As of now, Ukraine does not have any information about the location of the prisoners of war (POWs) handed over to Hungary, as previously announced by the Russian Orthodox Church, reports Andrii Yusov, spokesman for Ukrainian Defence Intelligence, on air during the national joint 24/7 newscast. Hungary is breaching the Geneva Convention.
"The topic is sensitive, any word can affect the result here. We will talk with all the participants in this process and find out the details," said the representative from Ukrainian Defence Intelligence.
Ariana Gic: “Hungary agreed with Russia to have the Ukrainian POW's do a press conference where they'll say they were forcibly mobilized by Ukraine and fought under harsh conditions, and praise the Hungarian govt and Russian Orthodox Church (long known to be an extension of the Russian government.).”
According to a recent KIIS poll, the overwhelming majority of Ukrainians (84%) firmly believe that no territorial concessions should be made, even if it means prolonging the war and facing additional threats. This viewpoint has been consistently dominant (82-87%) since the beginning of the full-scale invasion. Only a small minority (one-tenth) of Ukrainians are open to the idea of giving up some territories in order to achieve peace and preserve independence.
The Kremlin said there was no foundation for any possible dialogue with Ukraine but also that there were no preconditions for potential talks. ‘There is practically no precondition for an agreement at the moment. Moreover, there is no foundation, even flimsy, for any kind of dialogue’, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov told Rossiya state television. Peskov may want to talk with Tsekov: contrasting statements.
A bipartisan group of U.S. Congressmen called on the POTUS to provide Ukraine with a fourth-generation fighter aircraft, ATACMS, additional air defense capabilities and accelerate Abrams MBTs delivery. A Resolution calling on the Biden administration to immediately provide ATACMS to Ukraine has also been introduced. Congressman Ted W. Lieu led a bipartisan group of Members in reintroducing Russia as a State Sponsor of Terrorism Act.
NATO to agree on 'certain procedure' for Ukraine accession at July summit. NATO members will agree on a "certain procedure" for Ukraine's potential accession into the 31-nation alliance at the July summit in Vilnius, Deputy Defense Minister Volodymyr Havrylov said on June 10.
Сanada supports Ukraine becoming NATO member ‘as soon as conditions allow’. The joint statement of President Zelensky and Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau, published on June 10, says that Canada supports Ukraine in becoming a NATO member "as soon as the conditions allow for it."
French President Emmanuel Macron called on his Iranian counterpart, Ebrahim Raisi, to put an end to drone deliveries that are supporting Russia’s war in Ukraine. Macron made the plea in a 90-minute phone call Saturday, Reuters reported. In its own readout of the talks, Tehran said Raisi declared that Iran has a “firm policy of opposing war” and considers diplomacy “the best solution.”
Moldova sends humanitarian aid to help Ukraine cope with Kakhovka dam disaster. Moldova's Commission for Emergency Situations decided on June 9 to provide Ukraine with humanitarian aid worth around $230,000 for the "management of the ecological and humanitarian consequences" following Russia's destruction of the Kakhovka dam in Kherson Oblast, the country’s state news agency Moldpres reported.
Former SNP chef, Nicola Sturgeon, arrested
Disney Land Florida, June 10.
Alexandra Chalupa: Run to Venezuela
Interesting tactic to talk about Venezuela, the top country of choice where Putin and his team have emergency plans to flee to…an escape operation run by Igor Sechin known as operation ‘Noah’s Ark.’ Trump is a flight risk who can’t help but tell us where to look.
Daily Beast’s Allison Quinn (2022): ‘Russian officials have snatched up property on Venezuela’s Margarita Island, where they are confident they’ll be safe from extradition…comparing the would-be Kremlin hideout to the famous French Alps ski resort.’
Iryna Matviyishyn: Hard Days…
Some days it's just too much to handle. A simple question, a wounded soldier asking you for a direction, or just a song triggers you - and all the accumulated pain, the unbearable difficulty of everything the world sees in the news, breaks out. And you can only be understood here.
Last week, I visited my Polish relatives whom I haven't seen for ages because they live near the German border where I usually don't go. Unexpectedly, I still felt like we were from different worlds. At some point, I even had to explain why we, Ukrainians, have to keep fighting.
I had to defend my brother for going to the frontline, for not buying himself an indulgence from the service (in front of people who are EU citizens), for defending the country that he wants to live in. I even had to defend myself for covering war as if it was my dream.
Eventually, what was supposed to be a warm family gathering turned into my inner struggle not to scream and cry at the same time. We're misunderstood. It took little time for Europeans to forget how they gained peace and freedom to choose their life.
Many are compassionate and feel pain for what is happening in Ukraine. My relatives, too. But often, it's just a different level of understanding that a lot of Ukrainians have to deal with abroad, and one of the reasons why many want to or are coming back home despite dangers.
The Insider: Before the war, Aeroflot was considered one of the best airlines in the world. In fact, a large spy network operates under the guise of an air carrier; the airline's representative offices abroad are often headed by career officers of the GRU and SVR. After the ban on flights for Russian aviation, they had to return to Moscow, but their numerous agents remained in place. Aeroflot was not only an excellent excuse for working abroad, but also a tool for spying on foreigners. The Insider tells how "representatives" of "Aeroflot" spied in the countries of Europe, Asia and the Middle East, what information they obtained and what they are doing today.
Soon to be released: Calder Walton’s 'Spies’
In the early Cold War, many of the worst Western traitors were motivated by ideology— a faith in communism In the later Cold War, that was replaced by cash; Soviet ideology was bankrupt.
Meanwhile, some of the best agents for the West were driven by — a faith in the West Surely Russian ideology is now dead as an espionage recruitment vehicle?
Not so fast: Russian propaganda/ disinformation has infected US political discourse, especially on the GOP hard Right, which adopts Putin's propaganda that Russia is a "conservative" safe haven of white, ethno-religious nationalism, away from the decadence of the West, where LBGTQ rights have no place— and that Russia is fighting a just civilizational war in Ukraine against Western aggression.
Read more about this Russian bile in my new book SPIES
thank you.