Jun 14: E-Stories

Day 475: KryvyiRih RUattacks Bakhmut Toretsk Alliance France UK US Greenpeace RUpassports Umland Rosenberg RobLee Aslund Nelson

Jun 14, 2023

Catching up…

EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.

E-Stories will be published in a reduced format till June 17.

Stories we’re following…

At least 11 people were killed in a Russian missile strike on the city of Kryvyi Rih on Tuesday, the city mayor has said. “As of 1300 (1000 GMT) 10 people have been killed,” Oleksandr Vilkul said in a Telegram post, adding that another person was under the rubble and a further 36 were injured.

Russian forces launched 29 airstrikes targeting both military personnel and civilians, while also conducting 20 artillery shellings over the past 24 hours, the General Staff of Ukraine’s Armed Forces reported on June 13.

Ukraine’s deputy defence minister, Hanna Maliar, has reported small incremental advances for Ukrainian forces near Bakhmut and Toretsk.She said in a message on Telegram that Ukraine had advanced 250 metres in the direction of Bakhmut in the area of the Berkhiv reservoir, and 200 metres in the Toretsk direction. She also claimed that 3 sq km of territory had been captured in the Berdiansk direction.

Russian forces continue to focus their main efforts on the Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka and Marinka fronts, and heavy fighting continues. There were 22 combat clashes over the last day.

Ukraine is making advances and gaining ground in its counteroffensive, Nato secretary-general Jens Stoltenberg said on Tuesday, although he added it was still early in Kyiv’s renewed push against Russia’s invasion. In brief remarks before his meeting with the US secretary of state, Antony Blinken, Stoltenberg said the alliance was preparing for the leaders’ summit in the Lithuanian capital, Vilnius, where it was expected to step up further support for Ukraine, Reuters reported.

A British-led defence alliance of several European countries will strengthen its sharing of tactical intelligence, the group, known as the Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF), said on Tuesday. “We know since the attack on [the] Nord Stream [pipeline] that our critical infrastructure is vulnerable and needs to be protected,” said Kajsa Ollongren, the Netherlands defence minister, after a JEF meeting.

A top Russian officer has been killed in a Ukrainian missile strike during Kyiv’s counteroffensive against Russian forces, a Russian-backed official in Ukraine said on Tuesday, offering his condolences. Vladimir Rogov, a Russian-installed official in part of the southern Zaporizhzhia region which is under Moscow’s control, said major-general Sergei Goryachev, chief of staff of Russia’s 35th army, had been killed on the Zaporizhzhia front on Monday where Ukrainian forces have been retaking some territory.

France prevented an attack on its foreign ministry website that was likely carried out by Russian or Russian-speaking individuals, said a statement from the French foreign minister, Catherine Colonna. Reuters reports that Colonna’s statement on Tuesday said authorities had prevented an identity-hack attempt on that site, and that France believed there was a broader campaign of spreading disinformation in France from Russian parties.

UK Defense Ministry announces $115 million air defense package for Ukraine. The U.K. Defense Ministry announced a new air defense package for Ukraine on June 13 worth $115 million "to bolster Ukraine’s ability to protect its critical national infrastructure, civilian population, and front-line personnel."

US announces new military aid for Ukraine including Bradley, Stryker vehicles. The U.S. Defense Department announced on June 13 a new military aid package worth $325 million for Ukraine, which includes armored vehicles, missile launchers, and munitions.

For BBC News Steve Rosenberg: Extraordinary art exhibition across from the Kremlin: “We are Russians. God is with us!” Seems to reflect the official view that somehow God is on Russia’s side. On Russia Day, I ask Muscovites about this, & about Russia’s war in Ukraine & Russia’s future.

Putin signs law allowing foreign passport confiscation of military personnel. Russian dictator Vladimir Putin signed a law on June 13 that grants authorities the power in certain cases to confiscate Russian citizens' foreign passports or declare them invalid, as announced on Russian governmental sites.

Greenpeace names conditions for Kakhovka disaster lawsuit against Russia. A trial against Russia due to the Kakhovka Dam destruction may be launched at the ICC if evidence emerges on concrete individuals involved, Greenpeace legal advisor Daniel Simons said on June 13.

This raises more and more questions about the assurances Beijing gave to Kyiv in its 1994 governmental declaration in connection with Ukraine’s accession to the NPT, and in the 2013 friendship treaty between China and Ukraine fully ratified in 2015.
Kyiv and other East European capitals may have to reconsider their relationships to Beijing and Taipei in the way that Vilnius already has. There is war with millions of victims, after all.
As Beijing is increasingly supporting one side, other players - and above all Kyiv - will be repositioning themselves vis-à-vis Moscow’s ally and its interests too.

Anders Aslund: Putin has run out of luck

Putin's many weaknesses as a ruler is now becoming evident. The truth about Putin is that he has had tremendous luck, but not been particularly able. He has thrived on loyalty and slow deliberate decision-making, But now his many shortfalls are becoming costly.

Putin has never broadened his expert base but stuck to his old chums from the KGB in St. Petersburg and Dresden and St. Petersburg technocrats. How can anybody serious listen to Patrushev and the Kovalchuk brothers?
Putin has all along refused to rely on any other sources of information than his own intelligence agencies - FSB, FSO and SVR, perhaps GRU. In his big media events, he has repeatedly shown that he believes in conspiracy theories. He insists on being poorly informed.
Putin has never decided fast. He has taken his time, but then he had that option. That is hardly the case in the current war. He has never been a crisis manager and he is not going to become one. This might be one reason why all decisions are late and inconsistent.
Putin is a micromanager and overcentralizer. He has persistently shown that he has gone far too deeply into details. Much of the failure of the war in Ukraine seems to have been caused by Putin insisting on deciding far too much himself, just like Hitler in World War II.
Putin has systematically destroyed Russia's state institutions and imposed extreme repression. One consequence is that his rule has very little capacity to receive and utilize negative feedback. As a consequence, neither he nor his administration learn much from their mistakes.
Putin has all along been deeply involved in organized crime and kleptocracy. As a result of his far-reaching criminalization, the Russian state has rotted from within. It can neither run things, nor produce things.
Putin is unable to fire anybody because of their incompetence. The only crime he recognizes is disloyalty. Outstanding examples are Miller at Gazprom and Chemezov at Rostec, but also Shoigu & Gerasimov and all the other generals. At best they are circulated.
To sum up, Putin appears almost a guarantee that Russia will lose the war Ukraine as badly as it did at the outset. Putin has eaten up the laid table that Yeltsin and his reformers served him in 1999. Now, Putin's many sins are likely to punish him

Putin's repeated meetings with them also indicates that he wants a different source of information on the war than his intelligence and military commanders. Some of these voenkors have been very critical of Russian generals, as a whole and focusing on individuals.

They wanted to start a new life: married couple of IDPs from Bakhmut killed in Odesa in Russian attack

A couple of internally displaced persons (IDPs) were killed in Odesa in a Russian attack on the night of 9 June when a drone hit a high-rise building. Yurii and Yuliia Antonenko were survived by their daughter, said Liudmyla, the victims' neighbour. The couple moved to Odesa from Bakhmut to "start a new life". They have recently brought their parents there.

"Always with a smile, always in a good mood. Always 'living this life'. We lived in the same house – that's how we met. I still can't believe any of it. Their child lost both parents in one second. They died on the spot," says the neighbour.
The woman said that the funeral ceremony for the deceased couple would take place on 12 June in the village of Nerubaiske, Odesa Oblast.