Jun 16: E-Stories
Day 478: UASitRep RUSitRep RUdomestic Deripaska Rostov EvilShowTrials KaraMurza NATO EUParl HUN NorthKorea Pakistan Berlusconi Boris A&P UKDef ISW Trofimov Gontar Austin Panyi SovietX Speck Whithorn
Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
Stories we’re following…
Serhiy Lysak said that two industrial complexes were hit in overnight in strikes in Kryvyi Rih, injuring one person. While the damage was reported to be ‘“significant”, the city’s mayor said the two enterprises that had been hit “had nothing to do with the military.”
On the night of 15 June, explosions were heard in Kharkiv, and air defence forces were operating, National Police in Kharkiv Oblast report on Telegram. The explosions that Kharkiv residents heard at night were the result of our air defence system hitting enemy targets. The Shahed drones that were flying towards the city were shot down near Kharkiv," Terekhov posted on Telegram.
Odesa was reportedly targeted by Russian strikes overnight, after already enduring a deadly wave in the early hours of Wednesday morning. Ukraine’s southern military command reported on Thursday morning that Russia was attacking with drones – and there was “also a threat of a missile attack”, while advising residents to go to shelters. Officials later said that all 20 drones that attacked in the south were destroyed by air defence forces.
“The automatic transmission of data from radiation monitoring sensors at the Zaporizhzhia NPP was stopped,” two were ago, upon an order from Moscow, Chief State Inspector for Nuclear and Radiation Safety of Ukraine said.
Authorities: Flood water level in Kherson Oblast drops to less than 2 meters. As of 10 a.m. local time on June 15, the flood water level in Kherson Oblast has decreased to 1.98 meters, according to the regional administration.
As many as 100 Russian troops gathered for a motivational speech near Ukraine’s eastern frontline may have been killed in a strike earlier this week, prompting fury among Russian military bloggers. While the details remain unclear and unconfirmed, a number of Russian Telegram channels have been discussing the attack, which they say took place near Kreminna, an eastern town in the Luhansk region where there has been heavy fighting. The alleged incident took place as soldiers were gathered and made to wait for two hours for a speech from a divisional commander, identified by some as Sukhrab Akhmedov, of the 20th Guards Combined Arms Army.
President Zelensky has said that the international community has the ability to block the supply of components for Russian missiles. According to the Ukrainian leader, dozens of Kalibr missile parts were delivered to the Russian Federation from other countries. “The world has the tools to cut off all such routes – from every country, from every company whose components are used by Russian missile manufacturers,“ Zelensky said.
Mayor: Explosion reportedly damages railway in Russian-occupied Melitopol. An explosion has blocked a key Russian logistics route near occupied Melitopol in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, exiled Mayor Ivan Fedorov said on June 14. According to Fedorov, Russian forces have lost five freight wagons and 50 meters of railway track as a result
Russia media: Russian power plant near Rostov on fire. Novocherkassk Thermal Power Plant in Russia's Rostov Oblast is on fire, Russian state news agency TASS reported on June 14. Local residents heard an explosion before the fire started at around 1:40 p.m. local time, according to the Novocherkassk Segodnya Telegram channel.
Despite heavy battles, Ukraine advances confidently. Russian troops have increased their attacks and densely mined the fields to stop Ukraine's long-awaited counteroffensive, but Ukrainian forces are "advancing confidently," Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar told Ukrainian TV on June 14.
ISW: Ukraine continues counteroffensive operations in at least 3 directions. The Institute for the Study of War cited Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar who said on June 14 that Ukrainian troops have made gains, advancing between 200 to 500 meters in unspecified sectors of the Bakhmut front and 300 to 350 meters in unspecified parts of the Zaporizhzhia direction.
Military: Ukrainian forces advance up to 1 km near Vuhledar. The Armed Forces of Ukraine have advanced up to 1 kilometer near Vuhledar in Donetsk Oblast, a spokesperson of the Tauric Forces reported on June 15.
Putin sent a secret decree to the government, in which he demanded the drafting of a law giving the state the priority right to buy back the assets of Western companies "at a significant discount", reported by the Financial Times, which has read the text of the document. In the future, such assets can be resold at a profit. In addition, the Kremlin intends to respond to Western sanctions with a policy of carrots and sticks, punishing companies in those countries that seize Russian assets and rewarding those that play by its rules. To do this, the economic bloc is discussing the issue of nationalization, people familiar with this told the FT.
After a destructive feud between his top military chiefs and the mercenary warlord Yevgeny Prigozhin, Vladimir Putin has appeared to side with his top brass, calling for Russia’s “volunteer detachments” fighting in Ukraine to be placed under the direct control of the defence ministry. Speaking to a group of pro-war bloggers on Tuesday, the Russian president said he welcomed the defence minister Sergei Shoigu’s initiative to force mercenary groups to sign contracts with the ministry – an order Prigozhin has refused to follow.
“This has to be done and it has to be done as quickly as possible,” Putin said of the military contracts, saying it was “in line with common sense, with established practice and the law”.
Kadyrov's right-hand man Adam Delimkhanov reportedly wounded in Ukraine. Adam Delimkhanov, a deputy in the State’s Duma for Chechnya and a close associate of the Chechen dictator Ramzan Kadyrov, has been wounded, the press service of the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) reported on June 14.
The CEC considered it possible to hold elections in September in the occupied territories of Ukraine, which were illegally annexed by Russia. Among them are parts of the Kherson and Zaporozhye regions, the self-proclaimed DPR and LPR. The commission came to this conclusion after consultations with the FSB and the Russian Ministry of Defense, said the head of the Central Election Commission, Ella Pamfilova.
The Russian city of Rostov-on-Don has hosted a show trial of 22 Azov Brigade members who defended the city of Mariupol and Azovstal steelworks; eight of the defendants are women who reportedly worked as cooks, AP reports. These are members of the Azov Brigade who fought Russian invaders in Mariupol and have been illegally deemed “terrorists”.
SBU charges Russian ideologue Dugin with genocide, anti-Ukrainian activities. The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) has pressed charges against Alexandr Dugin, a Russian ultranationalist ideologue and the leader of the Eurasian Movement, SBU announced on June 14. Dugin is considered suspect under the articles of genocide and encroachment on the territorial integrity of Ukraine.
Forty-year-old activist Anatoly Berezikov died in a special detention center in Rostov-on-Don, lawyer Irina Gak told OVD-Info. According to her, the man could have been killed during torture. The lawyer came to meet with her client on June 14, but she was told in the detention center that Berezikov was not in the building. In the yard, the woman saw a medical vehicle into which the activist's body was being carried. “He complained to me yesterday that he was threatened. He was afraid that he would be killed,” Gak said. The day before, the lawyer recorded traces of stun guns on her client.
Energoatom: UN nuclear chief starts his visit to Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant. Grossi came to inspect the situation on the ground after Russia's destruction of the Kakhovka dam posed new risks for the nuclear plant, which relies on water from the reservoir to provide power for its turbine condensers.
Ruslan Stefanchuk, chair of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, has said the European parliament expects that the summits in Vilnius and Washington in the coming months will mark the start of Ukraine’s accession to Nato after strong support for the country’s integration into the Euro-Atlantic community.
European Parliament calls on NATO to invite Ukraine to join alliance. The European Parliament approved a resolution on June 15 calling on NATO to accept Ukraine into the alliance after the war is over.
Russia’s nuclear rhetoric is “reckless and dangerous”, the Nato secretary general, Jens Stoltenberg, has said. Speaking in Brussels at a meeting of Nato defence ministers, Stoltenberg said Russia’s behaviour is “part of a pattern” which Nato has responded to. “If we want a just and enduring peace” then Nato has to continue with its military support for Ukraine, he added. On Thursday, defence ministers met with defence industry members and agree at the meeting “new capability targets” to ensure sufficient ammunition which he said will be “significantly higher” than previously.
The US defence secretary, Lloyd Austin, said the war in Ukraine is a “marathon, not a sprint” and that America will “stand with Ukraine for the long haul”.
4 countries pledge air defense missiles, equipment to Ukraine at Ramstein summit. The defense minister of the U.S., the U.K., Denmark, and the Netherlands announced in a press release on June 15 that they will jointly and urgently provide Ukraine with air defense equipment.
Scholz: 'We need to discuss security guarantees for Ukraine.' According to German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, Russian President Vladimir Putin intends to seize neighboring territories, therefore, Kyiv's partners must discuss concrete security guarantees for Ukraine, Deutsche Welle wrote on June 14.
The Australian government has rushed through special legislation allowing it to cancel Russia’s lease on a site for a new embassy near the country’s parliament, citing national security concerns.
More than 100,000 people have been evacuated in India and Pakistan ahead of the expected landfall on Thursday of a “very severe cyclonic storm”. Biparjoy, a cyclone whose name means “disaster” in Bengali, is making its way across the Arabian Sea and is expected to make landfall on Thursday evening, government weather monitors said.
Netherlands to purchase 4 radars to bolster Ukraine's air defense. The Dutch Defense Ministry will purchase four VERA-EG radar systems for Ukraine worth a total of 150 million euros ($162.9 million) for Ukraine's air defense, Dutch Defense Minister Kajsa Ollongren wrote in a letter to the Dutch parliament on June 14.
"In many ways Taiwan is the 21st century’s West Berlin (1948) and I think that’s important to recognize."
It's that third level of deterrence -- sanctions -- Europe should focus on, and communicate to the Chinese leadership on every occasion that it is dead-serious with cutting China off from the world economy in the case of a major aggression against Taiwan.
Economic deterrence: "If you can imagine the United States, Europe, Japan, Korea, Canada having that as a policy – 65, 70 percent of the world’s global GDP – that is a major deterrent and I think that’s one of the most important things."
The Chinese Communist Party is very good at trying to pick off individual countries. They go after the Germans and tease them with more access to the market for BMWs and Mercedes-Benz. We need our German colleagues to stand strong and say, no, we’re not going to fall for that."
Messages from Europe that can be interpreted as giving China a free hand on attacking Taiwan are extremely counterproductive as they may lead Beijing to assume that they can split Europe and the US and prevent harsh sanctions from Europe.
Sanctions effect uneven across the Russian Federation
Disclaimer: these figures have been released by Russian sources.
Unemployment is at a record low at 3.4%, and in some areas there is an acute labour shortage.
In 2022, the volume of the extractive industry increased slightly (by 0.8%). Oil production increased by 2% as sanctions against oil and oil products were introduced only in December and companies managed to redirect part of their exports to Asia. But in the regions of the coal industry - in the Kemerovo region and Khakassia - production fell (by 5-6%), since the sanctions were introduced in the summer and it was not possible to completely redirect supplies to other markets.
In January-April 2023, the dynamics of the extractive industry worsened (-2%). Due to the loss of most gas export markets, the decline in the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug (-8%) intensified, a slow decline began in the main region of oil production - Khanty-Mansiysk Autonomous Okrug (-0.2%) and a more significant one - in the regions of Siberia (Krasnoyarsk Territory, Irkutsk and Tomsk regions). - by 6%). Conversely, in the Kemerovo coal mining region, the decline softened.
Regions involved in the military industries recorded an increase—this includes a third of the regions of the Center (Tula, Ryazan and others - an increase of 9-19%), Udmurtia (21%), Penza (15%), Sverdlovsk and Chelyabinsk (10%), Omsk (9%) regions. The growth of manufacturing industries continued in regions with a high share of the food industry (Krasnodar Territory - by almost 13%). Areas close to military installations are grew to cover the needs of the industry.
The strongest decline occurs in the regions of the automotive industry, where foreign companies left(Kaluga and Kaliningrad regions - a decline in the manufacturing industry by 16-17%). The housing market had increased by 11-13% in the two years prior to February 2022, but have now registered a decline of 4%. Other sectors in decline are food and retail.
Russia was not invited to the funeral of former Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi. He was one of the closest friends of Russian President Vladimir Putin among European politicians. Crazy Ass Moments in Italian Politics (great account) reports that Russian MP Vitalij Milonov proposes the establishment of the 'Berlusconi Prize' to be awarded to politicians who distinguish themselves 'for their uncompromising and honest stance' and who 'are not afraid to express their convictions'. Milonov had his own reality show in Russia called “I’m not gay”. I’ll just leave the whole thing here.
Boris deliberately mislead Parliament: he lied.
The Privileges Committee concludes Boris Johnson should have been suspended from the House for 90 days. It says he deliberately misled the House, the Committee, impugned the Committee and was "complicit in the campaign of abuse and attempted intimidation of the Committee." It adds "We recommend that he should not be entitled to a former Member's pass."
We established that Mr Johnson:
a) had knowledge of the Covid Rules and Guidance
b) had knowledge of breaches of the Rules and Guidance that occurred in No. 10.
c) misled the House:
i) when he said that Guidance was followed completely in No. 10, that the Rules and Guidance were followed at all times, that events in No. 10 were within the Rules and Guidance, and that the Rules and Guidance had been followed at all times when he was present at gatherings
ii) when he failed to tell the House about his own knowledge of the gatherings where rules or guidance had been broken
iii) when he said that he relied on repeated assurances that the rules had not been broken. The assurances he received were not accurately represented by him to the House, nor were they appropriate to be cited to the House as an authoritative indication of No. 10’s compliance with Covid restrictions i
v) when he gave the impression that there needed to be an investigation by Sue Gray before he could answer questions when he had personal knowledge that he did not reveal.
v) when he purported to correct the record but instead continued to mislead the House and, by his continuing denials, this Committee
d) was deliberately disingenuous when he tried to reinterpret his statements to the House to avoid their plain meaning and reframe the clear impression that he intended to give, namely
i) when he advanced unsustainable interpretations of the Rules and Guidance to advance the argument that the lack of social distancing at gatherings was permissible within the exceptions which allowed for gatherings, and
ii) when he advanced legally impermissible reasons to justify the gatherings