Jun 18: Sunday Stories
Day 479: UASouth Bryansk ZNPP grain Mariupol SPIEF Shoigu Yandex NATO Mondalez MOVEit BlinkenCN IAEI Moldova A&P Avdeeva DeepState Ponzio MuskITA ERICGrant RamaphosaZe Khara Giles Christie Kirchberger
Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
“I was afraid for myself, for my family, for our country. When I looked through a series of my photos at home, I wanted everyone who saw this picture to feel the horror of the war. And that this can happen to any of us.”
Stories we’re following…
The Ukrainian Defense Forces have continued their advance on three fronts in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, reports CDS in their daily snapshot. The Russian forces are deploying reserves and launching counterattacks in an effort to impede the advancement of Defense Forces units towards the main defensive line. The Russians are facing a challenging situation as they are limited in choosing the direction to deploy their reserves into battle. In the Tokmak direction, the Russians may be sending two battalions.
The Ukrainian Defense Forces will continue their offensive in the Polohy-Berdyansk, Velyka Novosilka-Berdyansk, Orikhiv-Melitopol directions, and partially towards Tokmak. However, there will be no significant breakthroughs from the Defense Forces in the coming week.
Ukrainian defenders killed 670 Russian invaders and destroyed 12 of their tanks and 23 armoured vehicles during the day on 16-17 June, reports the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
The Ukrainian forces may be on their way to liberate P’yatykhatky, in the heart of the Zaporizhzhia front according to Russian military correspondent Semyon Pegov.
General Staff: Russian forces fail to advance in the east, conduct 37 airstrikes across Ukraine. Russian forces tried to advance toward the towns of Kupiansk, Lyman, Avdiivka, Marinka, and Shakhtarsk in eastern and southeastern Ukraine but failed to make any headway on June 17, according to the General Staff of Ukraine's Armed Forces.
According to Alexander Bogomaz, the governor of the Russian Bryansk Oblast, Russians allegedly repelled the attack of three drones on the Druzhba oil pipeline. The Kremlin's Telegram channels report that the first three explosions near the pipeline occurred around 00:30 on Saturday night, followed by several more 15 minutes later.
The head of the UN atomic energy agency has said the situation at the Russian-controlled ZNPP in Ukraine is “serious” and that ensuring water for cooling was a priority of his visit, adding that the station could operate safely for “some time”. Rafael Grossi, of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), was inspecting the state of Europe’s largest nuclear plant following last week’s breach in the Kakhovka dam downstream on the Dnipro River.
Exports of Ukrainian grain under a deal ensuring its safe passage through the Black Sea are not helping to resolve Africa’s problems with high global food prices as only 3% have gone to the poorest countries, Putin told African leaders on Saturday. Putin said the food crisis had been caused by the actions of Western countries, not by what Russia calls a “special military operation” in Ukraine.
Cases of Russian occupation forces’ violent abduction of pro-Ukrainian citizens and the establishment of new detention centers in the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine have been reported by the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. According to the GS, one of the new detention centers was set up by Russian occupiers on the premises of a public school in Velyki Kopany in Kherson Oblast.
After the Russian sabotage of the Kakhovka HPP dam, 54 towns and villages in three oblasts (Kherson, Dnipropetrovsk, and Mykolaiv) remain flooded. According to Ukraine's Health Minister, the water in the Dnipro River is contaminated 28,000 times above the norm.
Russia sentences Crimea activist Osmanov to 20 years. The activist from the Crimean Solidarity NGO Ansar Osmanov was sentenced by the Rostov-on-Don court to 20 years in prison in the Hizb-ut-Tahrir organization case.
Drivers go on strike in Russian-occupied Mariupol. Drivers of the municipal water supply company in Mariupol announced a strike on June 16 after not being paid for two months of labor, according to the Ukrainian military's National Resistance Center.
Reuters: UN experts raise 'widespread' torture concerns with Russia. A group of U.N. experts said on Thursday they had written to Moscow raising concerns about the “state-endorsed” use of torture by Russian military forces on Ukrainian civilians and prisoners of war.
The U.N. experts said in a statement the torture included electric shocks, hoodings and mock executions and had been carried out to extract intelligence, force confessions or in response to alleged support for Ukraine's forces. It had resulted in damage to internal organs, cracked bones and fractures, strokes and psychological traumas, they said.
The consistency and methods of alleged torture suggested "a level of coordination, planning and organisation, as well as the direct authorisation, deliberate policy or official tolerance from superior authorities", according to U.N. Special Rapporteur on Torture Alice Jill Edwards, who sent the letter on 12 June alongside several other independent experts.
Putin admits to taking Ukrainian children, which is against the Geneva Convention, and a war crime.
At SPIEF, journalists were not able to use their phones during Putin’s speech. Citing a forum participant and employee from a telecom company operating in the area, journalist Farida Rustamova reported that the authorities had planned to jam the Internet to prevent ‘possible drone attacks’ during Putin’s address. Dmitry Peskov, Kremlin spokesman, confirmed that this was done as a security measure.
SPIEF: After his speech at the St Petersburg International Economic Forum, Putin held a question-and-answer segment. When asked why the West fails to understand that Ukraine is run by “fascists,” given that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is himself Jewish. “I’ve had many Jewish friends since childhood,” Putin responded. “And they tell me that Zelensky isn’t Jewish but a disgrace to the Jewish people.”
Jewish Confederation of Ukraine responds to Putin's comment that Zelensky 'isn't Jewish'. "Zelensky is a hero not only of the Jewish people, but also of the entire political Ukrainian nation, which, of course, includes Jews," the Jewish Confederation of Ukraine said in a statement.
Russia’s defence minister, Sergei Shoigu, has called for more tanks to be manufactured “to meet the needs of Russian forces” in Ukraine after Kyiv launched a counteroffensive with Western arms. Shoigu’s remarks were made while visiting a military factory in western Siberia and stressed the need “to maintain the increased production of tanks”, he said.
After failing to reach a satisfactory deal with Yandex (which is asking for $7 billion), Andrey Kostin, head of Russia's state-owned VTB bank, said today that the state could simply take Yandex away from its shareholders without paying them anything.
US lawmakers submit bill to purchase ATACMS for Ukraine. A defense budget bill submitted to U.S. Congress allocates $80 million for the purchase of Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) for Ukraine, Policy Advisor to Helsinki Commission Paul Massaro said on June 16.
Russian media: IAEA chief to visit Moscow over Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant situation. The head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Rafael Grossi is expected to visit Moscow in the following week, the news agency Interfax cited Russian state-owned nuclear company Rosatom.
Ukraine to work with Czechia, Slovakia on purchase of CV90 vehicles. The defense ministers of Ukraine, Czechia, and Slovakia signed a cooperation agreement on the purchase and maintenance of infantry fighting vehicles (IFV), Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov said on June 16.
Polish parliament passes bill backing Ukraine's entry into NATO. The Sejm the lower house of the Polish parliament, adopted a resolution in support of Ukraine's accession to NATO, the Polish Radio reported on June 16.
Mondelez announces reduction of operations in Russia. Leading American food manufacturer Mondelez has announced that it is cutting back on operations in Russia.
Nato has launched a new centre to help protect vulnerable undersea pipelines and cables amid concerns over Russian sabotage. Defence ministers gave the greenlight for the new hub located in Northwood, north-west London as the suspected attacks on the Nord Stream pipelines remain unsolved.
US government agencies hit in global cyberattack. Several US federal government agencies have been hit in a global cyberattack by Russian cybercriminals that exploits a vulnerability in widely used software, according to a top US cybersecurity agency. The US Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency “is providing support to several federal agencies that have experienced intrusions affecting their MOVEit applications,” Eric Goldstein, the agency’s executive assistant director for cybersecurity, said in a statement on Thursday to CNN, referring to the software impacted. “We are working urgently to understand impacts and ensure timely remediation.” [continue]
China's behavior in this crisis has impacted Europe across the board, says Atlantic Council Scowcroft’s Sarah Kirchberger at the Atlantic Council about Russia's war in Ukraine. China is mostly seen as a covert supporter of Russia, she adds.
Moldova faces a huge challenge countering pro-Kremlin propaganda. After Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the Kremlin upped its disinformation game, experts say, exploiting traditional and social media and other tools to spin its narrative as it faced global condemnation for its aggression. And Moldova, one of Europe's poorest nations, appeared to be at or near the top of the Kremlin's hit list. To fight back, Chisinau first banned Russian news programs, then a few months later blocked several TV channels from broadcasting. "Recent efforts to combat Russian messaging in Moldova have been a game of cat and mouse. When regulators shut down TV stations and websites for rebroadcasting Russian state programming, the content lives on because it is quickly syndicated to other channels like newly created websites and messaging apps," Walter told RFE/RL. [continue]
CNN: Biden not ready to ease NATO access for Ukraine. U.S. President Joe Biden told reporters on June 17 that he wouldn't ease barriers to Ukraine's membership in NATO because the country has to meet the same standards as other members, CNN reported.
Ukraine will unlikely receive an invitation to NATO at the Vilnius summit; instead, it will get an institutional mechanism, assurances of long-term support programs and exemption from a MAP, which neither Finland nor Sweden was required to undergo.
The delegation of African leaders that were in Kyiv on Friday is preparing to meet with Putin. The diplomatic team had gone to Kyiv to voice the concerns of a continent that has suffered from the fallout of Russia’s invasion, in particular rising grain prices, with South African president Cyril Ramaphosa insisting “there should be peace through negotiations”. President Zelensky ruled out the possibility of talks, saying:
“I clearly said several times at our meeting that to allow any negotiations with Russia now that the occupier is on our land is to freeze the war, to freeze pain and suffering”.
At SPIEF, Putin gave no indication that he was ready to talk about peace, announcing the deployment of the first tranche of nuclear weapons in Belarus.
South Africa’s record at the UN: South Africa has not shown its support of either Ukraine or adherence to the U.N. principles, for it abstained during three the most important U.N. General Assembly's resolutions on the territorial integrity of Ukraine (68/262 of 27 March 2014), Russia's aggression against Ukraine (ES-11/1 of 2 March 2022), and on Principles of the U.N. Charter underlying a comprehensive, just and lasting peace in Ukraine (ES-11/6 of 23 February 2023). Only Egypt and Zambia voted to condemn the Russian aggression and support the U.N. Charter-based peace for Ukraine.
African Delegation Peace Plan
The peace plan proposed at a press conference by the African Delegation:
the war must be completed through negotiations, and the conflict must be resolved through diplomacy;
negotiations should start as soon as possible;
de-escalation is needed on both sides;
the sovereignty of states and peoples must be ensured in accordance with the UN Charter;
security guarantees are needed for all countries;
supplies of grain and fertilizers from both countries must be ensured;
it is necessary to provide humanitarian support to the victims of the war;
the issue of the exchange of prisoners and the return of Ukrainian children from Russian-controlled territories should be resolved;
the post-war restoration of Ukraine must be ensured;
closer interaction of the parties to the conflict with African countries.
Alexander Khara on the peace plan
This [peace-plan] viewpoint bears similarity to the first point of the Chinese position, which is also vaguely formulated and does not explicitly demand Russia's withdrawal from all illegally occupied territories, including Crimea.
The necessity of security guarantees for all parties, as also mentioned in the Chinese document, implies that both Ukraine, as a victim of unprovoked and illegal aggression, and Russia, as an internationally condemned aggressor, require such guarantees. However, this approach could leave Ukraine in a vulnerable position (outside of NATO), susceptible to future Russian aggression.
The unimpeded export of grain and fertilizers is the key reason why the African leaders traveled from far away. Humanitarian assistance to those affected and the exchange of POWs and children are mentioned, as well as post-war reconstruction.
Musk in Rome? and Florence?
Elon Musk met Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani on Friday. He was also interviewed by Nicola Porro, who is has been spreading Covid disinformation and is considered to be aligned with Putin. The official story is that he is in Rome to discuss cyber security, which makes me quite nervous.
Musk’s mother, Maye Musk, who was a model and dilettante, was in Florence during the same time for Pitti Fashion Week. I wouldn’t be surprised that he was also there. A few weeks ago, Peter Theil was also in Florence. What is going on in Florence that we don’t know about?
ERIC interviews Glen Grant
I spoke with Glen Grant before Russia’s full scale invasion of Ukraine with the LiberiOltre channel. It was a revealing conversation: He was very clear about the strengths and weaknesses of the Russian armed forces. This is Glenn Grant’s latest interview with ERIC.