Jun 20: E-Stories
Day 481: RUattacks Kherson UASitRep WestWeapons Dnipro Prigo OdesaWheat Kirillov UN UA/NATO UA/EU MOL CNeco GERA&P Zelensky UKDef RFE/RL Gvaramia Metsola Blinken Seddon Hnizokovskyi Barkin Borger Welt
Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
Zelensky: 'There will be no alternative to our steps for de-occupation.' President Volodymyr Zelensky emphasized in his evening address on June 18 that Russia's primary focus should be on preparing its society for the consequences of destroying its own future.
Stories we’re following…
Russian attacks kill 3, injure 8 over past day. Over the past day, Russian forces attacked nine oblasts, killing at least three people and injuring at least eight more, officials reported on June 19.
Russian attacks on Kherson Oblast ignite fires. Russian attacks on civilian targets in Kherson Oblast on the night of June 19 caused extensive fires in the region, the State Emergency Service reported. Presidential Office head Andrii Yermak said that 10 buses caught fire and one of the State Emergency Service's excavators was damaged.
Russian troops hit the Beryslav district in the southern Kherson region with artillery on Monday, injuring three civilians, the regional administration wrote on Telegram, according to the Kyiv Independent. At least five residential buildings, two private residences, and an administrative building were said to have been damaged in the attack.
A large fire was reported in the centre of Moscow, less than 4 km from the Kremlin. The fire is located on the other side of the Slava Stadium.
The Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Valerii Zaluzhnyi, said in a video post that the Russians, in order to prevent the advance of Ukrainian units, deployed a system of fortifications with dense minefields and a large number of reserves. However, according to him, the soldiers are doing everything possible to liberate Ukrainian territory. "The operation continues according to the plan," he wrote.
Ukraine hits Russian ammo depot in occupied Kherson Oblast. Ukrainian forces hit the Russian ammunition depot in the village of Partyzany in southern Kherson Oblast, Air Force spokesperson Yurii Ihnat told national television on June 18. Partyzany sits just on the administrative border with neighboring Zaporizhzhia Oblast, 45 kilometers west of Russian-occupied Melitopol. The Russian ammo depot that detonated for 6 hours yesterday was the main source of ammunition for Russia's Zaporizhia front.
Ukraine’s deputy defence minister, Hanna Maliar, has described the situation in the east of the country as “difficult”, saying that Russia has not given up its ambition to occupy the whole of the Donbas, and that is where it is concentrating its offensive forces. She said:
The enemy has raised its forces and is conducting an active offensive in the Lyman and Kupyan directions, trying to seize the initiative from us. High activity of enemy shelling is recorded. Intense battles continue.
The enemy does not abandon his plans to reach the borders of Donetsk and Luhansk regions. Currently, this is the enemy’s main offensive line. Therefore, it has concentrated a significant number of units in the east, in particular the airborne assault units.
The New York Times reports that, “Ukraine has paid contractors hundreds of millions of dollars for weapons that have not been delivered, and some of the much-publicized arms donated by its allies have been so decrepit that they were deemed fit only to be cannibalized for spare parts.”
Ukrainian government documents show that as of the end of last year, Kyiv had paid arms suppliers more than $800 million since the Russian invasion in February 2022 for contracts that went completely or partly unfulfilled. [continue]
UKDef Intelligence Up-date: “Over the last ten days, Russia has highly likely started relocating elements of its Dnipro Group of Forces (DGF) from the eastern bank of the Dnipro River to reinforce the Zaporizhzhia and Bakhmut sectors.”
This potentially involves several thousand troops from the 49th Army, including its 34th Separate Motorised Brigade, as well as Airborne Forces (VDV) and Naval Infantry units.
The DGF redeployment likely reflects Russia’s perception that a major Ukrainian attack across the Dnipro is now less likely following the collapse of Kakhovka Dam and the resulting flooding.
Russian warlord Prigozhin has asked Politico for help in equipping his Wagner private army with Lockheed Martin F-35 fighter jets. In a sarcastic voice message delivered in response to a request for comment, Prigozhin also sought assistance in obtaining U.S.-made sniper rifles, machine guns and grenade launchers. “I ask you to talk to your contacts so that we can get these supplies,” said Prigozhin, whose mercenaries have fought at the forefront of Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine.
Farmers in Ukraine's Odesa region have started the 2023 grain harvest, threshing the first winter barley, local officials said. Ukraine is a major global grain grower and exporter, but this year's out is expected to be reduced.
Kyiv has accused Hungary of barring access to eleven Ukrainian prisoners of war that Russia handed over to the EU country, AFP reports. The Russian Orthodox Church said earlier this month that a group of Ukrainian prisoners of war of Hungarian origin had been transferred to Budapest. The prisoners are of Transcarpathian origin - a region in western Ukraine bordering Hungary – where around 100,000 ethnic Hungarians live.
“All attempts by Ukrainian diplomats over the past few days to establish direct contact with Ukrainian citizens have not been successful,” foreign ministry spokesman Oleg Nikolenko said in a statement on Facebook. “Essentially they are being kept in isolation,” he said.
You can’t make that up and you know it will end up on Telegram channels and the god-given truth.
The UN has accused Russia of refusing to allow aid deliveries to Moscow-controlled areas affected by flooding following the destruction of the Kakhovka dam almost two weeks ago.
“The UN will continue to engage to seek the necessary access. We urge the Russian authorities to act in accordance with their obligations under international humanitarian law. Aid cannot be denied to people who need it.” Denise Brown, the UN’s humanitarian coordinator for Ukraine, said in a statement.
Kremlin spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, has said that Russia will not be accepting aid to the flooded Russian occupied areas because, “There are a lot of issues there”
“How to cross where the line of contact is (between Russian and Ukrainian forces) and ensuring security - you know that there is constant shelling there, constant provocations, civilian objects and people are being shelled, people are dying,” he said.
He also forgot to mention that it is the Russian forces that are shelling the area.
Sviat Hnizdovskyi: “Russia uses the United Nations to justify its actions. As soon as UN filed the report about terrible torturing of Ukrainians by Russian army, Russian ombudsman decided to file the “evidence” of the War Crimes of Ukrainians to the UN. Mirror actions and heavy propaganda are aimed to distract the world from the real problem - Russian unprovoked and unjustified war to invade independent Ukraine.”
81% of foreign components in Russian missiles originate in US. Up to 81% of foreign components found in Russian missiles originate in the U.S., LIGA.net wrote on June 19, referencing an obtained document from the Yermak-McFaul Expert Group on Russian Sanctions. The next largest shares come from Switzerland (8%), Germany (3.5%), and Japan (3.5%).
Ukraine will not be formally invited to join Nato at the forthcoming Vilnius summit, but Sweden is hoping to be a full member by the time the 11-12 July gathering is held.
“At the Vilnius summit and in the preparations for the summit, we are not discussing to issue a formal invitation,” NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg told reporters after meeting German Chancellor Olaf Scholz in Berlin, adding leaders would talk about how to move Ukraine closer to the alliance.
EU Parliament president Roberta Metsola responding on June 18 to Portugal's Parliament to the Communist Party's assertions about Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The main pillar of the Russian position is that NATO expansion caused Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine. This narrative has been widely debunked and fails to account for Putin’s attacks against non-NATO members prior to the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
The EU Commission will give its first oral assessment of Ukraine as a candidate country for membership in the European Union on Thursday, 22 June, at the informal European Council meeting on general affairs in Stockholm. According to the agenda of the meeting, Moldova and Georgia will also receive an oral assessment. According to a May study conducted by a consortium of Ukrainian analytical centres, the final score for Ukraine's fulfilment of the "European integration" criteria was 6.8 points out of 10, which is more than two-thirds.
The British government announced plans to tighten its sanctions policy against Russia, including introducing legislation to keep assets frozen until Moscow has agreed to pay compensation to Ukraine. The new measures will require any individual who has been designated under the sanctions to disclose assets held in Britain.
France, Belgium, Cyprus, Estonia and Hungary signed a letter of intent for the joint purchase of Mistral air defence systems, a source told Reuters. The source said the letter was signed at the start of a defence ministers’ meeting in Paris aimed at coordinating European efforts to enhance air defence capabilities across the continent after Russia invaded Ukraine.
US defence manufacturer Lockheed Martin has said it stands ready to help Ukrainian pilots fly and maintain its F-16 fighter jets if Nato states agree to send them to help the country against Russian aggression, the Financial Times reported on Monday, citing the company’s chief operating officer Frank St John.
More diplomatic news: During a call with Rishi Sunak on Monday, Ursula von der Leyen, the EU commission president, spoke about continuing financial support for Ukraine after 2023, among other topics. They also discussed efforts to galvanise international support for Ukraine and drive long-term public and private investment, Downing Street said.
European Commission: Budapest must explain role in release of Ukrainian POWs from Russia to Hungary, and communicate with the Ukrainian government on this issue, European Commission foreign policy spokesperson Peter Stano said on June 19 to Lithuanian media outlet Delfi.
Senior official: Ukraine will seek up to $40 billion for 1st phase of "Green Marshall Plan" reconstructing its economy Initial focus on iron and steel industry and on renewable energy International meeting in London starting Wednesday.
US secretary of state, Antony Blinken, said in Beijing that China had renewed promises not to send arms to Russia to fight in Ukraine, although he voiced concern at the actions of private Chinese firms, AFP reports. On Monday, Blinken told reporters:
We – and other countries – have received assurances from China that it is not and will not provide lethal assistance to Russia for use in Ukraine. We have not seen any evidence that contradicts that. What we do have ongoing concerns about, though, are Chinese firms – companies – that may be providing technology that Russia can use to advance its aggression in Ukraine.
In Moldova the pro-Russian Shor party that has led months of protests has been banned today by the constitutional court. Rueters reports Shor did not immediately comment on the court’s decision, under which lawmakers from the party will retain their parliamentary mandates as independents, without the right to join other factions in the assembly. The party has since last summer organised protests in the capital Chişinău at which demonstrators have called for the resignation of President Maia Sandu and her pro-western government. Sandu has accused Shor of attempting to destabilise Moldova. Shor has denied the protests are part of a Russian threat.
Goldman Sachs analysts have cut forecasts for China's economic growth, citing persistently weak confidence and the cloud over the property market as stronger-than-expected headwinds. China's bankers have been told to shun flashy clothes, 5-star hotels in an austerity drive.
Secretary Blinken’s Visit to the People’s Republic of China (PRC)—readout
Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken traveled to Beijing, the People’s Republic of China for meetings with President Xi Jinping, Director of the CCP Central Foreign Affairs Office Wang Yi, and State Councilor and Foreign Minister Qin Gang from June 18-19.
The two sides had candid, substantive, and constructive discussions on key priorities in the bilateral relationship and on a range of global and regional issues. The Secretary emphasized the importance of maintaining open channels of communication across the full range of issues to reduce the risk of miscalculation. He made clear that while we will compete vigorously, the United States will responsibly manage that competition so that the relationship does not veer into conflict. The Secretary stressed that the United States would continue to use diplomacy to raise areas of concern as well as areas of potential cooperation where our interests align.
The two sides agreed to continue discussions on developing principles to guide the bilateral relationship, as discussed by President Biden and President Xi in Bali. They also welcomed ongoing efforts to address specific issues in the bilateral relationship, and encouraged further progress, including through the joint Working Groups. Noting the importance of ties between the people of the United States and the PRC, both sides welcomed strengthening people-to-people exchanges between students, scholars, and business. This includes a commitment to working to increase the number of direct flights between the two countries.
Secretary Blinken emphasized that it remains a priority for the United States to resolve the cases of American citizens who are wrongfully detained or subject to exit bans in China. He underscored the importance of working together to disrupt the global flow of synthetic drugs and their precursor chemicals into the United States, which fuels the fentanyl crisis.
The Secretary addressed the PRC’s unfair and nonmarket economic practices and recent actions against U.S. firms. He discussed U.S. de-risking policies and the historic domestic investments the Administration has made. The Secretary raised concerns about PRC human rights violations in Xinjiang, Tibet, and Hong Kong, as well as individual cases of concern. He emphasized that the United States will always stand up for our values.
The Secretary underscored the importance of maintaining peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait and reiterated there has been no change to the U.S. one China policy, based on the Taiwan Relations Act, the three Joint Communiques, and the Six Assurances.
The two sides discussed a range of global and regional security issues, including Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine, the DPRK’s provocative actions, and U.S. concerns with PRC intelligence activities in Cuba. The Secretary made clear that the United States will work with its allies and partners to advance our vision for a world that is free, open, and upholds the rules-based international order.
The two sides underscored that the United States and China should work together to address shared transnational challenges, such as climate change, global macroeconomic stability, food security, public health, and counter-narcotics. The Secretary encouraged further interaction between our governments on these and other areas, which is what the world expects of us.
Both sides agreed on follow-on senior engagements in Washington and Beijing to continue open lines of communication. The Secretary invited State Councilor and Foreign Minister Qin to Washington to continue the discussions, and they agreed to schedule a reciprocal visit at a mutually suitable time.
Julian Borger, Georgians dream of EU membership as their leaders move closer to Putin
Around the Georgian village of Khurvaleti, Russia’s occupation can creep forward a few yards at a time, often in the middle of the night. It often starts with a line ploughed across a field. Then a green sign will materialise, warning people not to cross. Then the concertina wire appears.
Khurvaleti is at the southern edge of South Ossetia, a breakaway region occupied by Russian troops since a five-day war with Georgia in 2008, in what proved to be a dress rehearsal for Ukraine. Now on the defensive after Putin’s botched Ukraine invasion, Moscow has shifted troops and equipment from Ossetia.
For now, the line marking the extent of Russian occupation is watched by EU monitors who patrol in dark blue Toyotas, looking for new signs of “borderisation”, their word for the steady hardening of boundaries. Five years ago, the inhabitants of Khurvaleti woke to find their village had been cut in two by a wire fence, and then later, a watchtower was built to guard the barrier.
Opposition parties and civil society activists say the vehicle for this takeover is being carried out by the country’s own ruling party, Georgian Dream, which is ostensibly pursuing EU membership, while turning further towards Moscow.
“Germany is at the forefront of Western shadow trade with Russia”—Welt
Despite export bans, drones and weapons-grade technology are still entering Russia. A network is helping Vladimir Putin's government circumvent the West's punitive measures. In focus: companies from Germany. Minister Habeck is now in demand.
Dhe transactions follow a similar pattern. A company based in the west sells products to a group in a third country, which sells them on to Russian dealers. In addition to Kazakhstan and Armenia, Georgia, the United Arab Emirates and NATO member Turkey are playing a key role. [continue]
