Jun 21: E-Stories
Day 482: UASitRep RUSitRep Mariupol Berdyansk Kakhova RUdomestic RUoil SPIEF nukes NOR EU BoChina Scholz BlinkenChina HUN BUL Macron Vorontsova A&P Raik EPWashington UKDef YermakWSJ ABCSpies Engel
Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
Stories we’re following…
Russia launched a widespread overnight air attack on Ukraine on June 20, targeting military and infrastructure facilities in Kyiv, Lviv, and other cities, officials said. Ukraine said it had shot down 32 out of 35 Iranian-made Shahed drones launched from Russia's Bryansk region and the Azov Sea.
Russian forces attack 11 regions over past day, killing 2 people. Over the past day, Russian forces targeted 11 oblasts across Ukraine. Two people were killed and at least 17 were wounded due to shelling and mines.
Russian forces shelled the Nikopol district in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast four times on Tuesday, 20 June, injuring one civilian, a 74-year-old man.
Russia has attacked rescue workers in Kherson who were clearing mudslides in the aftermath of the destruction of the Kakhovka dam. As a result of the shelling, 1 employee of the State Emergency Service was killed, 7 more employees were injured. 6 are in serious condition.
Russian soldiers confiscate humanitarian aid in flooded Oleshky, which was intended for the flooded city of Oleshky in the occupied part of Kherson Oblast, the spokesperson for the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Andrii Kovalov, said on TV, as reported by Ukrinform on June 20.
Ukraine's military reports making advances on southern front line. Ukraine's forces are advancing on the southern front line, having destroyed or damaged 46 units of Russian military equipment just over the past day, the commander for Tavriia military sector said on June 20. They are advancing on the Melitopol and Berdyansk fronts, and they are strengthening their positions in new locations; no positions have been lost where the Ukrainian Armed Forces are defending.
The Ukrainian General Staff noted that the Russians continue to focus their main efforts on the Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and Marinka fronts; heavy fighting continues there, and there were 45 combat clashes over the past day.
The General Staff has reported that the Russian occupation forces are engaging in the looting of Ukrainian civilians in the temporarily occupied territory of Ukraine, which suffered flooding due to the deliberate destruction of the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant by Russian forces.
The State Duma allowed people with a criminal record to enter into military contracts and to exempt members of the "SVO" from criminal liability for crimes of small and medium gravity. The sources explained the corresponding recommendation with fear that unrest could begin in the regions due to the large amount of news about the dead. Also, the absence of obituaries will interfere with independent assessments of journalists when counting the dead, Nestka notes.
The Kremlin recommended not to publish military obituaries to the heads of regions whose residents suffered the greatest losses in the war with Ukraine.
Russian budget spending is increasingly under the radar as the “bill” for the war in Ukraine rises and revenues fall due to sanctions and problems with oil and gas exports. According to the results of January-May, secret spending of the federal treasury jumped almost 10 times compared to last year, experts from the Gaidar Institute calculated based on data from the Electronic Budget system. The government spent 3.892 trillion rubles. A year earlier, it was only 414 billion rubles, and in January-May of pre-war 2021 - 405 billion.
Russian oil companies suddenly faced a massive drop in demand for their barrels from one of their key buyers. China, which together with India buys more than 80% of Russian oil exports, halved purchases in June, Reuters reported , citing data from Refinitiv Eikon and information from traders. Instead of Russian barrels, independent Chinese refineries, known as "samovars", preferred Iranian ones - they were discounted more, an oil trader working in China told Reuters.
SPIEF gossip: participants at this year’s Russian answer to Davos had to use cash. The ATM machines weren’t working, nor were any of the electronic payment applications. Sources present at SPIEF said that Russian businessmen refused to meet with Putin, prompting Dmitry Peskov, the Kremlin’s spokeman, to say that it was “understandable”.
Biden: Threat of Russia using tactical nuclear weapons is 'real.' The threat of Putin using tactical nuclear weapons is "real," U.S. President Joe Biden told a group of donors, as reported by Reuters on June 20.
Monique: the threat of Russia using tactical nuclear weapons has been present from the day the Russian forces put nuclear warheads on bases in the Kaliningrad enclave. I’m not privy to intelligence reports so for the time being in my view, the greatest threat is an accident at the ZNPP, where the Russians have placed weapons, and from where they attack cities on Ukrainian territory. (I wrote this before knowing about the mining of the ZNPP).
Norway to allocate $23 million for Ukraine’s nuclear safety, as announced by the Norwegian Foreign Ministry on June 20. Denmark announces $3.2 billion for military aid to Ukraine, as announced on June 19. The military aid will be delivered in the period from 2023-2028.
The EU is preparing a new package of financial assistance to Ukraine for 50 billion euros, Bloomberg reports citing its sources. The funds will be allocated in the form of grants and soft loans aimed at financing Ukraine's current expenses and restoring priority infrastructure facilities. The package will be financed by contributions from EU member states, and not by market loans, as was the case before.
EU member states plan to train as many as 30,000 members of Ukraine’s armed forces this year, including from territorial defence units, Kyiv said on Tuesday according to AFP. The announcement came as Brussels asked EU member states to back a €50bn (£43bn) package to support Ukraine over the next four years. EU Commission chief von der Leyen said it would be made up of loans and grants and would give Ukraine “predictability” and “incentivise other donors to step up too”.
France has sharply changed its position on Ukraine's membership in NATO and now supports the position of Poland and the Baltic countries - supporters of accelerating this process. This shift is stated by the French edition of Le Monde.
According to Le Monde's information, a Defense Council meeting at the Elysée Palace on Monday, June 12, explored the possibility of Ukraine joining the EU, an option now considered by Paris to be a security guarantee in its own right, since it could discourage Russia from continuing the war or, should the conflict come to an end, prevent any further aggression. This prospect could, in fact, convince Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to enter into negotiations when he deems the time is right, depending on the results of the counter-offensive.
Ukraine is negotiating with Western arms companies to set up factories in the country, Deputy Minister for Strategic Industries Sergei Boev told Reuters at the Paris air show. He clarified that we are talking about manufacturers from Germany, Italy, France and Eastern Europe. “We are confident that we will sign contractual agreements in the next few months,” Boev said.
“Future containment of aggression will require a strong defense industry in Ukraine, strong armed forces. That is why we believe that the arrival of international partners, the creation of industries and the inclusion of the country in the security system of the free world are very important, ”Boev emphasized.
Hungary denies involvement in Ukrainian POW transfer, Ukraine's intelligence says otherwise. Hungary's Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó denied his government's involvement in the transfer of 11 Ukrainian prisoners of war from Russia to Hungary, the Index news website reported on June 20.
Media: 370 pro-Russian disinformation sites discovered in Bulgaria. An analysis by the Sofia-based Human and Social Studies Foundation identified 370 websites spreading Russian propaganda and disinformation, Euractiv wrote on June 20.
Reuters: General Electric (GE.N) has stopped servicing gas turbines at thermal power plants in Russia, the Russian business daily Kommersant reported on Tuesday, citing sources in power generating companies. General Electric suspended its operations in Russia after Moscow invaded Ukraine, with the exception of providing essential medical equipment and supporting existing power services in the region.
SBU: Chernihiv deputy mayor charged with state funds embezzlement. Ukraine's Security Service (SBU) reported on June 19 it detained Chernihiv deputy mayor on charges of embezzling Hr 30 million ($812 000) of state funds.
German chancellor, Olaf Scholz, said he had called on China to use its influence over Russia more in regards to the war in Ukraine, Reuters reports. Speaking alongside China’s premier, Li Qiang, after bilateral talks in the German capital, Scholz also said China should not supply weapons to Russia and that the war in Ukraine should not become a frozen conflict.
The view from Berlin: "We should be prepared that the Russian war of aggression against Ukraine can still last for a long time," Chancellor Olaf Scholz said Tuesday during a press conference alongside NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg. Still, he added, "Germany will continue to support Ukraine for as long as it takes."
The destruction of the vast Kakhovka hydro-electric dam has caused 1.2 billion euros of damage, Ukraine’s environment minister said on Tuesday according to Reuters, warning that mines unearthed by flooding could wash onto other European countries’ shores.
View from China: Blinken met with Chinese leader Xi Jinping on Monday. Afterward, he told reporters, "We have no illusions about the challenges of managing this relationship. There are many issues on which we profoundly, even vehemently, disagree." According to the Associated Press, which traveled with Blinken to Beijing, Xi told his U.S. visitor,
"China respects the interests of the United States and will not challenge or supplant the United States. Similarly, the United States should also respect China and not harm its legitimate rights and interests."
Defence One: Xi's top diplomat wasn't as careful with his words during talks on Monday, and reportedly demanded U.S. officials stop "hyping the 'China threat theory'" and "urged the United States not to project on China the template that a strong country must seek hegemony." Blinken had hoped to re-establish military-to-military talks between the two nations, but Chinese officials were not interested—citing 2018 U.S. sanctions against its current defense minister, Li Shangfu, for helping China acquire weapons from Russia.
Politico: EU looks to ban companies from making sensitive tech in China. The European Economic Security Strategy, to be unveiled by Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, will outline plans for Brussels to intervene more in how European companies invest and trade in countries around the world at a summit on June 29-30. The paper doesn’t refer to China specifically, but to the risk of “overreliance on a single country, especially one with systemically divergent values, models and interests.”
The EU should prevent “outbound investment in a narrow set of advanced technologies that could enhance military and intelligence capacities of actors who may use these capabilities to threaten international peace and security; and the secure treatment of sensitive information," the paper says. [continue]
President Macron hosts a summit on Thursday and Friday to pin down a roadmap for easing the debt burdens of low-income countries while freeing up more funds for climate financing, Reuters reports. The summit brings dozens of leaders together in the French capital to forge a top-level consensus on how to progress a number of initiatives currently struggling in bodies like the G20, IMF-World Bank and United Nations.
The Paris 2024 Olympics organizing committee headquarters and those of its infrastructure partner were being searched by police as part of investigations into alleged embezzlement of public funds and favoritism, prosecutors said.
NYT: Russia Sought to Kill Defector in Florida. As President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia has pursued enemies abroad, his intelligence operatives now appear prepared to cross a line that they previously avoided: trying to kill a valuable informant for the U.S. government on American soil. The clandestine operation, seeking to eliminate a C.I.A. informant in Miami who had been a high-ranking Russian intelligence official more than a decade earlier, represented a brazen expansion of Mr. Putin’s campaign of targeted assassinations. [continue]
Former Defense Secretary Mark Esper says that former President Trump asked authorities if they could shoot protesters in the legs amid the demonstrations that filled the streets of Washington following the murder of George Floyd. “Can’t you just shoot them? Just shoot them in the legs or something?” Esper says Trump said. At the time, Esper said the deployment of active-duty forces should only be used as a “matter of last resort,” countering Trump’s depiction of the protests being a dire situation.
“I had to figure out a way to walk Trump back without creating the mess I was trying to avoid,” Esper wrote in his book, describing Trump as “red faced and complaining loudly about the protests under way in Washington, D.C.”
Where can a Chinese buyer purchase top-end Nvidia AI chips in the wake of US sanctions? Visiting the famed Huaqiangbei electronics area in the southern Chinese city of Shenzhen is a good bet - in particular, the SEG Plaza skyscraper whose first 10 floors are crammed with shops selling everything from camera parts to drones. The chips are not advertised but asking discreetly works.
The federal judge presiding over the prosecution of Donald Trump in the classified documents case ordered a trial to begin as soon as Aug. 14. While the timeline set by the judge, Aileen M. Cannon, is likely to be delayed by extensive pretrial litigation, its brisk pace suggests that she is seeking to avoid any criticism for dragging her feet.
Luxurious life of Putin’s daughter’s family with Rotenberg’s money—iStories
The Austrian house where the President’s daughter was often seen was bought by a company that received 11 million euros from Arkady Rotenberg’s company
With the help of Important Stories, our colleagues from OCCRP, Der Standard and Paper Trial Media found previously unknown property, which was used by Vladimir Putin's daughter Maria Vorontsova and her ex-civil husband Jorrit Faassen - a villa in the elite Alpine ski resort of Kitzbühel.
In 2013, the Cypriot Wayblue Investments bought a two-story mansion with a terrace and a garden. The transaction was carried out with the money of the company of Arkady Rotenberg, but his name, of course, did not appear anywhere.
Residents of Kitzbühel told our fellow journalists that Maria and Jorrit stayed at this villa. Some even claim to have seen Vladimir Putin there . But after the start of a full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine, none of them appeared here again.
Unlike some of our western allies, eastern flank countries are convinced that Ukraine’s membership will strengthen NATO, especially NATO's ability to deter the Russian threat.
The risk that NATO will end up fighting a war against Russia will be higher if Ukraine is denied NATO membership.
Disagreements over Ukraine's NATO membership remind me of another difference between eastern and western NATO members, which has shaped their views on supporting Ukraine: Western allies have seen nuclear escalation as the biggest threat, and have therefore imposed limits on their support to Ukraine - only to be gradually lifted, with no consequent escalation from the Russian side, while Eastern allies have felt most threated by Russia's invasion and occupation reaching them, and have therefore given maximum support to Ukraine.
To conclude: perhaps it is worth listening to Russia’s neighbours when it comes to deterring the Russian threat.