Jun 22: E-Stories
Day 483: UASitRep RUSitRep ZNPP Donetsk Malyar Makarov CoE $62B HUN ParisGas EU A&P Budanov RFE/RL UKDef Michta RotenbergOCCRP Podolyak Popovych KyivIndie Nika AtlanticCouncil Ulrich Walker RFKjr
Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
Stories we’re following…
Intelligence chief: Russia additionally mined Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant. According to Military Intelligence Chief Kyrylo Budanov, there is a threat of an explosion or accident at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, as the Russian forces have mined the plant's cooler. (follow up on yesterday’s post)
The Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in Ukraine plans to resume pumping water from what remains of the massive reservoir behind a nearby dam that burst two weeks ago, the UN nuclear watchdog said on Wednesday.
President Zelensky adds clarity to Ukraine’s counteroffensive: The Ukrainian forces are in a phase of ‘destroying’ Russian forces in the south and east first. They will have to weaken the Russians first before making significant advances.
The Ukrainian troops have been advancing on the Tavriia front, driving Russian forces from their positions, Brigadier General Oleksandr Tarnavskyi, Commander of the Tavriia Operational and Strategic Group of Forces reports. Three Russian ammunition storage points were also destroyed.
Heavy fighting continues on 4 fronts, with 40 combat engagements taking place over the course of the past day, General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports on Facebook, information as of 06:00 on 21 June. The Russian General Staff report that heavy fighting continues in the Limansky, Bakhmutsky, Avdeevsky and Maryinsky directions. They also state that there were 40 combat clashes.
Late on June 20, Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar said on Telegram that there are places where Russian forces are advancing and Ukrainian troops are on the defensive -- in Kupyansk and Lyman, for example. Malyar said forces in the south are gradually making advances as they continue their counteroffensive according to plan -- “with small steps, but very confidently."
"We are moving forward gradually…and you can even cite an allegory that we are gnawing away every meter of land from the enemy,” Malyar said. She added that "people want it to be like in a movie…very fast,” but it won't be that way.
Russian forces attack 11 regions over past day, killing 2 people. Over the past day, Russian forces targeted 11 oblasts across Ukraine. Two people were killed and at least 17 were wounded due to shelling and mines.
The Operational Command Pivden (South) reports that the Russians brought out a surface-to-air missile carrier on combat duty in the Black Sea: “the flotilla in the Black Sea has been increased to eight units: the frigate Admiral Makarov, equipped with eight Kalibr cruise missiles, has joined it."
The Russian forces have begun to create defensive lines near Perekop, apparently preparing for a scenario where the Ukrainian military will try to enter Crimea, UK intelligence reports. Russian forces have continued to build up their defences in the rear, especially on the outskirts of occupied Crimea. "This includes an extensive zone of defences of 9 km in length, 3.5 km north of the town Armyansk, on the narrow bridge of land connecting Crimea to the Kherson region.
Russian forces in occupied Henichesk, Kherson Oblast, are preparing an escape plan, the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports. According to the General Staff, mobile phones of collaborators in Henichesk receive SMS messages with detailed instructions and coordinates of evacuation points, which, at the same time, causes panic.
Russian news outlet, Baza, has reported that several drones have crashed in New Moscow and Moscow districts at military warehouses. Baza reported that the first drone supposedly exploded in the sky near the village of Lukino in New Moscow. In addition, two more drones crashed at around 05:00 in the Naro-Fominsk district of Moscow Oblast, not far from a military unit. Tass also reported two of the drones were intercepted on their way to the Taman Division of Russia’s Ground Forces. The division is based in Kalininets, some 60km (37 miles) from the Kremlin.
There have been two massive explosions in temporarily Russian occupied Sevastopol, Crimea.
Kremlin continues to lower requirements for Russian military service to increase recruitment. Analysts at Washington-based think tank the Institute for the Study of War say that the Kremlin continues to lower eligibility requirements for Russian military service in an effort to increase its recruitment pool.
The Belarusian General Staff has confirmed that Belarus has amended the language of its constitution to renounce its neutrality and non-nuclear status, ISW reports. The change in the Belarusian constitution comes after Putin last week said the first tactical nuclear weapons to be stationed in Belarus had arrived.
Ukraine's intelligence chief says Russia hasn't yet delivered any nukes to Belarus, contrary to Putin's claim. Ukraine's military intelligence head Kyrylo Budanov said on June 20 that Russia hasn't yet delivered "a single nuclear warhead" from those tactical weapons to be stationed in Belarus.
In occupied Berdiansk and Melitopol, Russians force children in school camps to write letters by Russian teachers to the Russian invaders, the Centre for National Resistance reports. The Russians have turned schools in the temporarily occupied territories into propaganda centres and are fining parents who do not send their children to these "schools", as well as threatening them with deprivation of parental rights.
“The relevant letters were centrally written in the camps of Berdiansk and Melitopol. Moreover, children did it under the record of propagandists. The letters themselves were written under the dictation of Russian teachers who were brought to the temporarily occupied territories from Russia.”
President Zelensky on Ukraine’s future: A rebuilt, transformed and strengthened Ukraine is a carrier and guarantor of security, which means protection against any form of Russian terror and against any repetition of Russian aggression.
Protection against terror means the destruction of terrorists. And it is a guarantee that the evil state will never again have the opportunity to bring evil to Ukraine. This is what the third point is about today. The first meetings have already begun in London in the framework of the conference on Ukraine's recovery, which we have been preparing together with our British friends. Discussions have already taken place in Switzerland and Germany, in France and Italy. There is work at various levels for our recovery. And we are directing this work in such a way that our reconstruction, our recovery will become not only construction projects, but also a global project of protection.
The UK has announced a major package of financial support for Ukraine, “including $3 billion of World Bank loan guarantees to bolster Ukraine’s economic stability as it continues to push back Russian forces. The funding will support vital public services, including the cost of running schools and hospitals. It brings the UK’s non-military assistance to Ukraine to more than £4.7 billion, including £4.1 billion of fiscal support and £640 million of bilateral assistance.”
Ukraine joins Council of Europe Development Bank. Ukraine officially completes the process of joining the Council of Europe Development Bank (CEB), Ukraine's Finance Ministry reported on June 20. Ukraine became Development Bank's 43rd member.
Ukraine is rapidly fulfilling the necessary tasks to become a member of the European Union. Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said this during a speech at the Ukraine Recovery Conference in London, an Ukrinform correspondent reports.
"Twelve months ago, Ukraine was granted the status of a candidate for membership in the European Union. We have an ambitious goal to quickly become an EU member. We are already on schedule and even ahead of schedule. We are changing our country. We are rapidly adopting European practices and legislation, integrating our country into European markets. European integration is a complex of our reforms and our changes, including projects to restore Ukraine," Shmyhal said.
Pentagon's accounting error provides Ukraine further $62 billion in military aid. The U.S. Defense Department overestimated the value of arms sent to Ukraine over the past two years by $6.2 billion. The unspent sum will be used for further military aid, Pentagon spokesperson Sabrina Singh said on June 21.
The EU can cover 45% of Ukraine's financial needs until 2027, the head of the EU Commission Von der Leyen said during the Ukraine Recovery Conference.
11th EU Sanctions Package: The new package forbids transit via Russia of an expanded list of goods and technology which might aid Russia’s military or security sector. It also extends the suspension of EU broadcasting licences of five Russian state-controlled media, Reuters reports. To curb the practice of ships loading Russian crude oil or petroleum products at sea, the package bans access to EU ports for ships which engage in ship-to-ship transfers if there is cause to suspect the cargo was of Russian origin. The package adds a further 71 persons and 33 entities to those banned from the EU and with EU assets frozen.
UN chief calls for continuation of grain deal amid Russian threats. UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres called on parties involved in the Black Sea Grain Initiative to do "everything possible" to prolong the grain deal amid Russian threats to abandon the deal unless the export of Russian ammonia to Europe is resumed.
Nato leaders are expected to endorse Ukraine’s membership aspiration at a summit in July, but the alliance is wary of letting the country in during a war, according to reports.
Latvia’s prime minister Krišjānis Kariņš has been cited by the Kyiv Independent as having said at the Ukraine Recovery Conference that his country is completing the transfer of all of its helicopters to Ukraine.
Germany has recognized Russian propaganda as a threat to national security against the background of the war in Ukraine and “watches” those who support it, head of the BfV (Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution) Thomas Haldenwang stated. (Monique: They now need to boot out all the pro-Kremlin agents in their security services. Would be a great idea.)
Richard Walker: Yesterday’s signing ceremony between Chinese and German institutions: - Three German car giants - Three Chinese ministries - Two German ministries - One Chinese economic planning mega-agency - One German industrial conglomerate - No women.
Signers: - German & Chinese govts (climate dialogue) - NDRC (Chinese National Development and Reform Commission) & Siemens (comprehensive cooperation) - NDRC & BMW (cooperation) - NDRC & Mercedes-Benz (cooperation)
Szabolcs Panyi: I'm really puzzled by what Hungary's notoriously pro-Russian foreign minister claims.
1. If this statement is true and the Russian Orthodox Church can bring Ukrainian soldiers captured by Russia to Hungarian soil without the Hungarian government's involvement - I mean, someone at least has to approve letting them in -, that's pretty scary.
2. Of course, it's much more realistic that Hungarian intelligence and national security agencies were involved in the process. Which is completely normal in itself. However, in this particular case, it would also mean that Hungarian intel/natsec agencies were cooperating with Russian actors, behind Ukraine's back. Now that's an even scarier scenario.
In any case, Hungary's NATO allies now probably have lots of questions.
EU Commission chiefs want Hungary to answer urgent questions over claims that Ukrainian prisoners of war were transferred there from Russia without the involvement of Kyiv.
Hungary’s government knew he was an undercover GRU spy but still let Russian diplomat Anton Goriev network with Hungary’s radicals for years. Then he was reassigned to Slovakia, and got expelled for espionage in 2022.
VSquare, as part of the #ESPIOMATS project, a collaboration of international journalists working to identify the hundreds of Russian diplomats expelled in 2022, investigated the history of Anton Goriev’s activities. We found that Goriev first worked for a GRU military unit, then spent around eight years in Budapest, likely from 2012 until 2019. A former Hungarian counterintelligence officer claimed that Goriev was known to be an “identified intelligence officer” by Viktor Orbán’s government since the Russian spy’s arrival to Budapest in the early 2010s.
Western companies are still financing the Russian invasion of Ukraine—Nataliya Popovych
According to data from the Kyiv School of Economics (KSE), out of 1,361 Western companies with Russian subsidiaries at the start of the full-scale invasion, only 241 (17%) have completely exited Russia. The remaining Western companies generated $136 billion in revenues during 2022, thus helping the Kremlin to finance the war in Ukraine.
Perhaps even more staggering than these numbers are the excuses used by the leadership of Western multinationals to justify their continued presence in Russia. The most common justifications for persisting with “business as usual” in Putin’s Russia primarily revolve around the provision of essential goods. This argument is widely cited despite the fact that it is rarely supported by the nature of the businesses in question. [continue]
Ukraine's counteroffensive finally began. What's next?
Host Anastasiia Lapatina is joined by the Kyiv Independent reporter Francis Farrell.
I won’t go into those proposals, as in my view none offers a clear path forward that Ukraine needs to rebuild after the war. Moscow banks that that the West will not stand up for what it preaches, and that it will push Ukraine to a settlement that will cede UKR territory.
We continue to re-debate why Russia invaded Ukraine instead of focusing on how to defeat the invasion. And most of all, while govt documents and analytical pieces talk of a new era of great power competition, I have yet to see a clear articulation of what victory look like.
We need to articulate what the end state in Europe looks like—not in terms of broad statements about “preserving the rules-based order” but in concrete terms that speak to geopolitics, alliances and power realignment. And how to ensure this outcome isn’t contested yet again.
As democracies debate the relative merits/demerits of bringing Ukraine into NATO, the focus is predominantly on risks, with little appreciation of positive contributions Ukraine would make to European and transatlantic security and defense.
Ukraine has the largest armed forces in Europe. It is battle-tested and it has demonstrated that, if properly equipped, it is capable of stopping the Russian invasion. Its projected peacetime strength of 300K would be a powerful addition to NATO’s deterrent capabilities .
We need to bring into the conversation what Ukraine can offer the alliance, rather than focusing predominantly on Russia’s reaction. It is time to articulate the architecture of European security post war that would provide the requisite stability to the Continent.
Ukraine in NATO would be transformative for European security. With Finland and Sweden joining the alliance, and with Poland completing its massive rearmament program, the alliance would have means to deter Russia regardless of how Moscow’s internal politics evolves.
The Pentagon, commenting on Ukraine's potential accession to NATO, has said that Ukraine will have its own way of joining the Alliance, Pentagon Deputy Press Secretary Sabrina Singh during a briefing. Singh noted that the USA is "certainly encouraged" by how Sweden moves towards the Alliance.
"Our efforts right now are focused on the security packages that we're providing, that you see us roll out every week or so, and what we can get to what we can get to them on the battlefield that they need right away," she noted.
The Platform’s mandate is to coordinate the support for Ukraine’s immediate financing needs and future economic recovery and reconstruction across different sources and established instruments for financing, complementing existing tracks (e.g. the G7 finance track, G7 coordination group on energy infrastructure, IFI coordination group). Its aim is also to direct resources in a coherent, transparent, and inclusive manner.
Two gas explosions in Paris
At least 25 people have been injured, four of whom are in a critical condition, after a gas explosion sparked a blaze in buildings in the Latin Quarter of Paris. The gas explosion happened in the fifth arrondissement at about 5pm on Wednesday and resulted in several buildings catching fire, local officials said.
Putin’s Friends Dodged Sanctions With Help of Western Enablers—OCCRP
Boris and Arkady Rotenberg were two of the most prominent Russian oligarchs to be sanctioned after the Kremlin’s 2014 annexation of Crimea. Never-before-seen insider documents now offer unprecedented insight into how they shielded their fortune — and who helped them do it.
Key Findings
After the Rotenberg brothers were sanctioned in 2014, a flurry of corporate restructurings, asset transfers, and other schemes helped protect their worldwide assets.
For years, they managed to keep hold of properties including a villa on the Spanish coast and luxury yachts, as well as companies in offshore tax havens.
The efforts to preserve their empire were coordinated by a Russian businessman, his employees, and hired specialists — from lawyers to bankers to asset managers — from multiple Western countries.
In Russia, they moved assets into special investment vehicles that obscured their ownership. These “closed mutual funds” are obliged to reveal nothing about whose wealth they’re storing.
They also used proxies to store their wealth, including a bodyguard, trusted employees — and a woman who appears to be Arkady Rotenberg's never-before-reported romantic partner.
Up-date on the post: “The Strange Case of Dr Hotez and the info-disinfo operations”, Jun 19
YouTube has removed Jordan Peterson’s interview with RFK Jr, stating that it contained Covid misinformation.
