Jun 23: E-Stories
Day 484: UASitRep RUSitRep MariupolChonhar Avtomatika IAEI DonetskCamps Yashin chips Kostin KazMunaiGaz Romania NATO Blinken Scholz A&P ISW UKDef Rosenberg Prigozhin Avdeeva Schmitt Pichler RadPod
Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
Stories we’re following…
Russian forces attack 10 oblasts, kill 1 over past day. Over the past day, Russian forces attacked 10 oblasts, killing one person and injuring 13, officials reported on June 22.
On June 22, the Armed Forces of Ukraine carried out attacks on 23 artillery units of the Russians in combat positions, as well as two electronic warfare and two communication centres of the invaders. The Russian forces continue to focus their main efforts on the Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka and Marinka fronts, and heavy battles continue. During the day, over 20 combat clashes were recorded.
ISW: The overall slower-than-expected pace of Ukrainian counteroffensive operations isn't emblematic of Ukraine’s wider offensive potential, and Ukrainian forces are likely successfully setting conditions for a future main effort despite initial setbacks.
RU defensive lines are likely arrayed to enable a first echelon of RU forces (deployed to the forward defensive line) to slow advancing UKR forces while a second echelon of forces deployed closer to the main defensive line launch counterattacks against any UKR breakthroughs as well as providing prepared fallback positions for frontline Russian units.
The Ukrainian forces are trying to find vulnerabilites in the Russian defence lines, and continue to strike operational hubs and logistics lines. In preparation for a larger offensive, the Ukrainian forces are trying to disrupt communication, command and logistics and set the conditions for battle most advantageous for them.
Ukrainian forces are containing Russian forces on the eastern front and have not allowed “a single metre” of Russian advances, the deputy prime minister Hanna Maliar said on Thursday.
“Our defence forces continue to contain effectively advances by Russian troops,” Maliar wrote on the Telegram app, Reuters reports.
As reported by the Ukrainian General Staff, the Ukrainian military continues to conduct offensive operations in three main directions – Meilotopol, Berdiansk, and Lyman, the General Staff informed.
Prigozhin’s latest: the Russian army units are 50-60 percent understaffed and that the Ukrainian armed forces would start crossing the Dnieper, entering Golaya Pristan and villages north of Tokmak. He also claims that Ukrainian forces can also reach the Molochny estuary on the Sea of Azov, which is 100 kms from the current front line.
Residents of the occupied city of Dzhankoi in Crimea reported a large number of explosions in the area, Deputy Permanent Representative of the President of Ukraine to the Autonomous Republic of Crimea Denis Chistikov said on NV radio on June 22.
The bridge in Chonhar is one of the main crossings into southern Ukraine from Crimea. The Ukrainian forces continue to knock out vital logistics infrastructure which the Russian forces use to supply their troops. Yaroslav Trofimov reports,
“Both the rail and the road bridges in Chonhar hit by Storm Shadow missiles [at 5am], Russian occupation head for Kherson said. This is a major logistical disruption for supplies to Russian troops in south Ukraine.”
The Azov Naval District is being created in Mariupol as part of the Russian Black Sea Fleet, the National Resistance Center reports. According to the National Resistance Center, the completion of organisational measures and partial relocation of the Black Sea Fleet is scheduled for 1 July. In total, the Azov Naval Forces will include eight warships and boats, as well as 16 support vessels. The three small missile carriers have a total volley of up to 24 Kalibr missiles.
An audit conducted by the Russian Ministry of Industry and Trade showed that the products developed by Avtomatika use software purchased in China, the source codes for which the Russian concern does not have, and the components of the antenna systems are imported, which contradicts the terms of the agreement. Passing off Chinese software and other products as Russian is common practice. The ministries are now cracking down on this practice.
The head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Rafael Grossi, will visit Russia on Friday, the Interfax news agency reported. Grossi is likely to hold talks about the Russian-controlled Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant.
President Zelensky’s evening address focusing on the dangers at the ZNPP
Full de-occupation of the Zaporizhzhia NPP is a must. And anyone who turns a blind eye to Russian, occupation of such a facility, to Russian mining of the territory and facilities of the nuclear power plant, is actually contributing not only to this Russian evil, but also to terror in general.
Prigozhin accuses the Russian MoD of hiding facts about the Ukrainian offensive and Russian losses.
In a 4-minute audio message, Prigozhin declares there are areas where no military reporters are allowed to hide the truth about casualties Russia is taking during the counter-offensive.
According to Prigozhin, Ukrainians are aiming to reach Molochny Lyman (likely to cut the Russian Zaporizhzhia group into two). If things progress the same way, Russians will one day wake up with Crimea being Ukrainian, says Prigozhin.
He once again attacks Shoygu for inactivity and brings up the dead sailors of the Moskva cruiser lost by Russia last spring.
Russian Mi-24 helicopter reportedly crashes in Belarus on June 22, the country's defense ministry reported, calling the crash a "rough landing." According to Belaruski Hayun, a group of activists that record the movement of troops within Belarus, the helicopter belongs to the Russian army.
Russia is 99.9% certain to quit a UN-brokered deal on the safe wartime passage of Black Sea grain in July as it no longer needs Ukrainian ports to export ammonia, a senior Ukrainian diplomat said.
One of the creators of the thermonuclear bomb committed suicide in Moscow at the age of 92, Fontanka reports. A TASS source in law enforcement agencies said that Klinishov's body was found in an apartment on Kosmodamianskaya embankment with a note saying goodbye to his relatives.
Russians legalize filtration camps, prisons in temporarily occupied part of Donetsk region. In the temporarily occupied Donetsk region, Russian invaders have officially legalized filtration camps and prisons. This order was issued by "gauleiter" Pushilin, Advisor to the mayor of Mariupol Petro Andriushchenko stated on Telegram. "Gauleiter Pushilin issued an order to de facto create camps for the detention of all those who are not citizens of the so-called DPR or Russia," Andriushchenko said.
As the BBC Russian Service reports that the Constitutional Court in Russia rejected the complaints of Ilya Yashin and 12 other people about this article and refused to cancel it.
“For the first time in its history, the Constitutional Court called the state, and not a person, a “constitutional value”. The support of military operations in Ukraine was recognized by the court as mandatory, and the “goals of the SVO” were not subject to doubt, ”the BBC writes.
Steve Rosenberg view from Russia: After a prominent Russian foreign & defence policy expert suggests a pre-emptive nuclear strike on the West, one Russian paper today counters by denouncing “sensationalist ideas” & “nuclear roulette” & concludes “Nuclear war is a bad way of resolving problems.”
The evening after the attack in Kryvyi Rih, which killed 13 civilians, President Zelensky came out in his daily address with a message of frustration: One of the missiles used in the attack had “around 50 components,” primarily microelectronics, produced outside of Russia. On the same evening, President’s Office Head Andrii Yermak provided more details on Twitter: The missile used in the attack was a Kh-101 cruise missile, not from old stocks, but manufactured only two months earlier. Ukrainian estimates have shifted, foreseeing a steady increase in Russian long-range missile production over the rest of 2023. The primary reason this is possible is the uninterrupted supply of microchips and other high-tech compon[ents manufactured by semiconductor giants in the U.S., Europe, and Japan. [continue]
Andrii Kostin: We are coordinating efforts to document and investigate Russian War Crimes. Discussed means to increase the work efficiency of law enforcement agencies and other state institutions involved in these processes at the Coordination Headquarters meeting.
We must modernize our approaches, practices, and techniques. I told colleagues about the 'Standards for War Crimes Investigation' developed by @GP_Ukraine with the support of our international partners. I emphasized the importance of using modern IT solutions to collect and store evidence and organize the work of prosecutors and investigators.
Politico: Romania could host F-16 training for Ukrainian pilots. A coalition of Western countries is considering Romania as a possible site for F-16 fighter jet training for Ukrainian pilots, three anonymous Western officials told Politico.
Explosion at the largest oil refinery in Romania. It is fully owned by KazMunaiGaz and processes exclusively Kazakh oil. The explosion happens just two days after the visit of the German president, Frank Walter Steinmeier, to Kazakhstan.
"Romania supports Ukraine's membership in NATO," Dmytro Kuleba reported. The Foreign Affairs Minister expressed his gratitude to the Romanian partners for their support following the first personal meeting with the new Minister of Foreign Affairs of Romania, Luminița Odobescu.
Secretary of State Antony Blinken met with representatives from Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the EU on the sidelines of the Ukraine Recovery Conference in London on June 21. They underscored their continued support for Ukraine in responding to Russia’s brutal war of aggression. The Secretary briefed the group on his meetings with senior People’s Republic of China (PRC) officials in Beijing on June 18-19. The G7 noted the importance of close coordination on the PRC and reaffirmed that the G7 is more united than ever.
Blinken also met with Ukraine’s prime minister Denys Shmyhal as well and discussed United States’ continued support for Ukraine’s economic recovery and commitment to working with the private sector to enable Ukraine’s modernization and revitalization.
UK would support Ukraine’s simplified NATO accession. The U.K. would be very supportive if Ukraine was able to skip NATO's "membership action plan" (MAP) and join the alliance through a simplified process, U.K. Foreign Secretary James Cleverly said at the Ukraine Recovery Conference in London on June 21.
German chancellor Olaf Scholz on Thursday pledged long-term security assurances to Ukraine but dashed Kyiv’s hopes for a swift accession to Nato.
“We have to take a sober look at the current situation,” Scholz told German lawmakers in a speech in parliament, adding the government in Kyiv had itself acknowledged the country would not be able to join Nato as long as the war was still going on.
“Therefore, I suggest we focus on the top priority (at the Nato summit) in Vilnius (in mid-July), namely strengthening the combat power of Ukraine,” Scholz said.
Minister for Affairs of Ukraine Dmytro Kuleba has discussed with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg the possible content of the Alliance's decision at the upcoming summit in Vilnius regarding Ukraine's membership perspective.
European Commission presents interim assessment of Ukraine's progress toward EU membership talks. According to the interim assessment broadcasted by SVT Play, Ukraine has fully completed two out of seven steps identified as priorities in the country's application.
Politico: “Commission President von der Leyen took everyone by surprise — including members of her college — when on Wednesday she announced that Brussels would propose to use the profits from over €200 billion of Russian central bank assets frozen in the EU to pay for Ukraine’s reconstruction. “We will come with a proposal for these assets before the summer break,” she said.” Countries including France, Italy and Germany raised doubts about the plan and asked for more work before a proposal is put forward.
“This is legally a very complex issue, there are going to be discussions with member states as there are discussions, for example, on all the sanctions packages, but I’m hopeful that we’ll be able to find a way forward,” Commission Executive Vice President Valdis Dombrovskis said.
Jake Sullivan, the U.S. national security adviser, is flying to Denmark this weekend at Ukraine’s request, to meet with officials from countries including India, Brazil and South Africa in a bid to convince them to break from Russia and condemn its invasion of Ukraine, the FT reports.
Senior EU officials said on Thursday that Ukraine was making progress on political reforms to open the way for EU membership talks but still needed to progress in five important areas, Reuters reports.
Australia cancels the lease of the site where they were going to build a new building of the Russian embassy for security reasons. As Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese announced, the government has received very clear security advice "regarding the risk posed by a new Russian presence so close to the Houses of Parliament." In retaliation, the Russian Federation will barr entry to 49 Australians.
US sanctions North Korean couple accused of helping to procure equipment for ballistic missiles. Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control said Choe Chol Min and his wife Choe Un Jong work through North Korea’s Second Academy of Natural Sciences, a state organization that conducts research for the nation’s ballistics missiles program, to help procure equipment for buyers. The equipment for ballistic missiles ended up in clients in North Korea and Iran.
Italy’s reactionary pro-Kremlin ‘news outlet’, Fatto Quotidiano, has started to insert stories about the ‘battle against paedophilia in Italy. It mirrors the narratives in North America in QAnon circles on social media platforms. It’s highly unusual.
More on The Rotenberg Files
The Rotenberg Files, a new series of investigations from OCCRP published on Tuesday, relies on emails leaked from a management firm used by the Rotenbergs, which give an unprecedented look into how they’ve kept their wealth, and who helped them do it.
The main story is about the role of money manager Maxim Viktorov, a 50-year-old violin aficionado, who received a memo from one of the Rotenberg brothers’ sons shortly after Russia’s annexation of Crimea with the subtle label “OBJECTIVE: CLEAR SANCTIONS.”
One key insight from the investigation is the role of “closed mutual funds,” investment vehicles that are not required to disclose their shareholders under Russian law, in hiding assets linked to the Rotenbergs, hiding their connections to properties.
One article outlines the role of Queen Elizabeth II’s cousin, Prince Michael of Kent, in helping Boris Rotenberg elude sanctions, and who has run in monarchist circles for over 20 years. According to OCCRP, Prince Michael used his royal status and connections with world leaders to try to jump-start the success of RemitRadar, a tech company he co-owned with Maxim Viktorov and another Russian businessman.
Dietmar Pichler, Jeffrey Sacks in Vienna helping Russia
Jeffrey Sachs, who appeared even on Russia's most famous warmongering propagandist show hosted by Vladimir Solovyov, was invited to Vienna. Professor Heinz Gärtner moderated the "one guest panel."
Russian imperialism, denial of Ukrainian statehood, and the situation in Russian-occupied territories are not really issues in this discussion, but we hear a lot about how the US and NATO are responsible.
Some highlights:
"I don't think that this is some idea of re-creating the Russian empire"
"The United States participated in the overthrow of Yanukovych, a Russophobic government came to power."
"In March 2022, Russia and Ukraine negotiated an end to the war, what happened?" somebody from the audience answered "Bucha happened!" Sachs answered "no, that's not what happened, okay, Bucha may or may not have happened, but that's not what happened on the negotiation table..."
Title: "US Neocons Are Warmongering Around The World To Dominate The Globe | Jeffrey Sachs Speech in Vienna"