Jun 24: Saturday Stories
Day 485: UASitRep whales RUconscipts Zaporizhzhia US/UN UA/NATO Naftogaz RUnukes Graham USsanctions PACE Denmark Bayraktar Greece A&P Lucas WaPo UKDef Dorohoy Obama Prigozhin Davis Syria Avdeeva
Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
Roman Sheremeta: Kharkiv-based photographer Pavlo Dorohoy traveled to the war-torn village of Dovhenke and turned on the lights in empty houses. By doing so, he wanted to give people hope that life will return to these houses one day.
Stories we’re following…
Ukraine’s armed forces have stopped a Russian offensive in the east of the country towards the cities of Kupiansk and Lyman, a senior defence official has claimed. The deputy defence minister Hanna Maliar told Ukrainian television:
“We had very fierce battles in the Kupiansk and Lyman directions, but our soldiers stopped the enemy there.”
“We still have the main events ahead of us. And the main blow is still to come. Indeed, some of the reserves – these are staged things – will be activated later.”
The commander of Ukraine’s ground forces, Oleksandr Syrskyi, has confirmed for the first time that the main force of his offensive reserve is yet to be committed into battle with Russia, saying:
“Everyone wants to achieve a great victory instantly and at once. And so do we. But we have to be prepared to have this process take some time because there are a lot of forces massed on each side, a lot of materiel, and a lot of engineered obstacles. Our main force has not been engaged in fighting yet, and we are now searching, probing for weak places in the enemy defences. Everything is still ahead,” General Oleksandr Syrskyi.
Although minefields were slowing them down, she said Ukraine’s military operation in the south was “moving according to plan”. She added: “It is not necessary to expect the offensive to be something very fast.”
Latest advances: Ukrainian troops have advanced in the directions of Novodanylivka-Robotyne and Mala Tokmachka-Novofedorivka using artillery support, the General Staff added. According to the report, Russian forces are deploying reserves to prevent Ukraine’s advances in the Orikhiv direction and try to regain previously lost positions.
Ukraine had downed an entire barrage of 13 cruise missiles fired by Russian forces overnight, targeting an airfield in the west of the country, AFP reports. “The launches were carried out around midnight from the Caspian Sea from four Tu-95MS bombers,” the air force statement said.
Russian forces are massively shelling Zaporizhzhia region. Three Zaporizhians were injured in Prymorsk, the head of the RMA, Yuriy Malashko, said. In Vozdvyzhivka, three houses were destroyed by russian shells. A 40-year-old man was moderately injured.
Russia strikes transport company in Kherson, kills 2 civilians. Russian forces attacked Kherson on June 23, killing two people and injuring at least four, Governor Oleksandr Prokudin said.
Julia Davis: Meanwhile in Russia: top pro-Kremlin propagandist Vladimir Solovyov cried about the war and demanded further escalation.
Russian defense minister says 'reserve army' will be formed before July. Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu pledged to finish forming military reserves as part of a separate army by the end of June and complete an army corps "in the nearest future," as cited by Russian state-owned news agency RIA Novosti.
Russia has almost doubled its floating mammal pens in Sevastopol, according to British defence officials, and they are “highly likely” to contain trained bottlenose dolphins. In its latest intelligence briefing, the Ministry of Defence said it believed the animals were intended to counter enemy divers.
Secretary of State Antony Blinken and UN Secretary-General Guterres spoke about Russia’s statements to not renew the Black Sea Grain Initiative (BSGI) by the July 17 deadline. Blinken and Guterres agreed on the importance of the BSGI to global food security and on the adverse impact its suspension would have on food importers, especially in developing countries.
PACE supports Ukraine's NATO bid and Zelensky's peace formula. The Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE) adopted a resolution on the political consequences of Russia's aggression against Ukraine on June 22, according to Maria Mezentseva, the head of the Ukrainian delegation.
Ukraine has no access to remaining 8 POWs in Hungary. Ukraine did not yet receive access to the remaining eight prisoners of war (POW) transferred to Hungary, Ombudsman Dmytro Lubinets said on live television on June 22. "We are trying to establish contact with 8 prisoners of war. We know where they are. We do not understand why Ukrainian diplomats have not been allowed to visit them," Lubinets said on television.
One of the judges of the International Criminal Court, Rosario Salvatore Aitala, who issued an arrest warrant for Putin, appeared on the wanted list of the Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs. Earlier in May, Russia's Investigative Committee indicted in absentia ICC prosecutor Karim Asad Ahmad Khan and ICC judge Rosario Salvatore Aitala.
"Ukraine did not bomb the Donbass for 8 years, but only exchanged blows with the Russian army, the Armed Forces of Ukraine were not going to attack the Russian Federation, the Ministry of Defense is deceiving the public and the president, - Prigozhin."
Naftogaz said on Friday it had taken legal action in the United States against Russia to try to recover $5 billion awarded in the Hague as compensation for damages and lost property in Crimea. Russia will look at all possible ways to protect its legal rights in a case initiated by Ukraine’s state-owned Naftogaz energy company in the US, Peskov said on Friday.
Russia will not disclose any details about the nuclear weapons it is deploying on the territory of Belarus, the Interfax news agency quoted Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov as saying on Friday, Reuters reports. Ryabkov also said Russia had no plans to inform the United States about tests of its nuclear-powered underwater drone, Poseidon, because they did not fall under existing verification agreements, according to the state news agency TASS.
Russia unofficially reactivated the Soviet spy center Lourdes in Cuba, which Putin closed in 2001, writes The Insider, citing informed sources. According to the publication, under the guise of diplomats, Russia is transferring "hearers" from the GRU and university graduates related to rocket science, computer technology and exact mathematics to Cuba. The first reports of secret agreements between Moscow and Havana to increase espionage against the United States appeared as early as July 2014. Then Putin came to Cuba and wrote off 90% of the Cuban debt in the amount of $35 billion.
The UN has named Russia guilty of killing 136 children in Ukraine. The organization has included the Russian army in the global "list of shame".
US senators proposed equating Russia's possible use of nuclear weapons with an attack on NATO. This resolution was introduced by Republican Lindsey Graham and Democrat Richard Blumenthal. It says that the use of tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine will create a direct threat to NATO member countries and can be considered an attack on the alliance. The document is advisory in nature. Senators believe that the adoption of the resolution is a message to Putin.
The U.S. slapped sanctions on Friday on two Russian intelligence officers who attempted to interfere in a local American election as part of Moscow’s “global malign influence operations,” the Treasury Department said. The two officers, Yegor Sergeyevich Popov, and Aleksei Borisovich Sukhodolov, both members of Russia’s Federal Security Service, have worked to undermine democratic processes in the U.S. and other countries through a network of co-conspirators, the department said in a statement.
The Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE) has adopted a resolution recommending that the International Olympic Committee not allow Russian and Belarusian athletes to participate in the Olympic and Paralympic Games in Paris, even under a neutral flag. Yevheniia Kravchuk, a member of the Ukrainian delegation to PACE and MP from the Servant of the People faction, as European Pravda reports.
The EU has agreed on the 11th sanctions package against Russia including export bans on third countries helping the Kremlin circumvent existing crackdowns. It will mean a crackdown on “deceptive practices” including the use of tankers from other countries to carry Russian crude oil into EU ports. The package of sanctions also completely banned the passage of trucks with Russian trailers and semi-trailers (that is, trucks) on its territory.
Maria Avdeeva: Crowded train from Kyiv to Kharkiv. People return home despite the ongoing threat because Ukraine needs to live and to rebuild. And to win.
Russia's Foreign Ministry says it is expanding the list of individuals barred from entering the country in response to a new package of EU sanctions. The individuals include representatives of law enforcement agencies, state and commercial organisations of the EU countries, citizens of EU member states involved in providing military assistance to Ukraine, and representatives of European structures responsible for imposing sanctions against the Russian Federation and trying to undermine Russia's relations with other states.
"The European Union continues to try to put pressure on Russia through unilateral restrictive measures. On 23 June, EU countries adopted the eleventh sanctions package. We consider such actions by the EU illegitimate, undermining the international legal prerogatives of the UN Security Council," the statement reads.
For the first time in history, the EU and U.K. are importing less gas via pipelines (especially from Russia) and more liquified natural gas (LNG) from further afield, Gabriel Gavin writes in to report. A new report from the Gas Exporting Countries Forum, which represents a dozen fossil-fuel rich countries, reveals LNG has shot up in the past year, with pipeline gas now responsible for only around 42 percent of overall imports. One of the last arteries carrying Russian gas to Europe could be shut off by the end of next year, according to Ukrainian Energy Minister German Galushchenko. “I can tell you that we are preparing our system for a cut of supplies,” he told the FT. Ukraine’s supply contract with Russia’s state-owned Gazprom expires in 2024.
Hundreds of tankers could be barred from European ports as part of a new effort to crack down on illicit sales of Russian crude oil that Western nations fear are helping fund Russia’s war in Ukraine. EU member countries on Thursday signed off on the 11th package of sanctions to be imposed on Moscow. Drafts documents reveal that the focus is now on tightening loopholes in the existing rules, creating powers for secondary sanctions and naming and shaming companies that fall foul of the rules.
Björn Seibert, chief of staff for EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, will this weekend attend a meeting in Denmark that aims to engage officials from countries including India, South Africa and Brazil when it comes to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Suzanne Lynch reports. U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan is also expected to attend.
Turkey issues licenses for producing combat drones in Ukraine. The Turkish company Baykar has received licenses to produce Bayraktar and Akıncı combat drones in Ukraine, the newspaper Yeni Akit reported on June 22, citing the company’s CEO Haluk Bayraktar.
Georgia’s President Salome Zourabichvili announced June 22 that she had pardoned journalist Nika Gvaramia, the founder of pro-opposition broadcaster Mtavari Arkhi who has been in prison for a year. The EU and U.S. have been pressuring Tbilisi over Gvaramia’s detention. Last night, President of the EU Council Charles Michel issued a statement welcoming the move, as well as “Prime Minister Irakli Garibashvili’s reconfirmation that Georgia won’t seek to adopt the foreign influence law.”
How did 100s die off Greece’s coast? One of the worst shipwrecks in Europe in a decade, which resulted in the deaths and/or disappearance of hundreds of people, is yet to be independently investigated. Now, EU border agency Frontex said it will collect details in a report. Brussels has brushed aside requests for an independent probe into the disaster, while few expect the Greek authorities’ own “investigation” to do much to reveal what happened. According to the U.N.’s refugee and migration agencies, UNHCR and IOM, anywhere from 400 to 750 migrants were on board the overcrowded fishing boat headed for Italy from eastern Libya.
Dictators’ dark secret: They’re learning from each other—WaPo Editorial
The law crippled these groups, the backbone of a nascent civil society that had blossomed in the 1990s in Russia after the dissolution of the Soviet Union. Such organizations are the heartbeat of a healthy democracy, providing an independent and autonomous channel for people to voice their desires and aspirations. One of the first groups to be targeted was Memorial, founded during Mikhail Gorbachev’s years of reform to protect the historical record of Soviet repressions and to defend human rights in the current day. Mr. Putin was determined to squelch it and others like it.
Soon, similar laws began to crop up around the world. In the following years, at least 60 nations passed or drafted laws designed to restrict NGOs, and 96 carried out other policies curtailing them, imposing cumbersome registration requirements, intrusive monitoring, harassment and shutdowns. The wave of repressive measures offers a revealing look at the titanic struggle between democracy and authoritarianism. In the past decade, dictators have forged transnational bonds, sharing methods, copying tactics and learning from one another. They are finding new ways to quash free speech and independent journalism, eradicate NGOs, silence dissent and suffocate criticism. [continue]
Amanpour interview with Obama
Obama’s foreign policy was weak and ineffectual on deterring Russia. I’ll be watching the full interview when it’s released to see what else the former president said.
Edward Lucas and Masha Karp at The Orwell Festival
For those living in the Soviet Union, Orwell's masterpieces, "Animal Farm" and "Nineteen Eighty-Four", were not dystopias, but accurate depictions of reality. In her new book the Orwell scholar and expert on Russian politics Masha Karp explores how Orwell's work was received in Russia, when it percolated into the country even under censorship. In this event, she will discuss her book with Edward Lucas, and together they will explore how Orwell's writing is read and received in today's Russia.