Jun 26: E-Stories
Day 487: Kyiv Kherson Bakhmut Melitopol Poland Copenhagen US Germany Israel Spies MutinyAftermath Lith A&P Noel UKDef ISW Rosenberg Davis Oz Khara MacDonald Ivshina UAFrontLines
Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
Stories we’re following…
General Staff: Russia launches 11 air strikes on Ukraine in past 24 hours. According to the General Staff, Russian forces used 40 Kh-101/Kh-555 cruise missiles, nine Kh-22 missiles, two Kalibr missiles, two S-300 anti-aircraft guided missiles and three Iranian Shahed kamikaze drones.
Mayor: 2 more bodies found in Kyiv building after Russia's June 24 missile strike. Two more bodies were found under the rubble of an apartment building a day after it was hit by missile debris during a Russian strike on Kyiv, mayor Vitali Klitschko reported on June 25.
2 injured in Russian shelling of Kherson Oblast. On June 25, the Russian military heavily shelled Kherson Oblast, injuring a 29-year-old man in the village of Antonivka and another man in the village of Burgunka, the regional administration reported.
The power engineers in Kyiv have restored the electrical line damaged by debris from a downed Russian missile. The "Kyiv State Artistic and Production Studio" of the National Opera of Ukraine has been damaged due to enemy shelling.
Ukraine advances up to 1 kilometer in Bakhmut direction. The Ukrainian army has advanced from 600 to 1,000 meters in the southern and northern directions around the strategic city of Bakhmut as of June 25, military spokesperson Serhiy Cherevatyi reported.
Ukrainian Defense Forces continue their offensive operation on the Melitopol, Berdyansk, and Lyman directions, with a deliberate and persistent effort to overcome the enemy's first line of defense. The Ukrainian Defense Forces will continue the offensive toward Polohy-Berdyansk, Velyka Novosilka-Berdyansk, Orikhiv-Melitopol, and with some forces - towards Tokmak.
Russian forces have definitively lost the initiative on the Kupyansk direction; they are trying to hold Rivnopil village on the Berdyansk direction.
The use of guided aerial bombs, combined missile strikes, and strike UAVs by the Russian aggressors remains a threat to critical infrastructure, the civilian population, and rescuers, including during evacuation and stabilization measures following the destruction of the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Station.
Russia enforces document checks on teenagers in occupied Mariupol. Russian security forces have started to implement document checks on local Ukrainian teenagers in occupied Mariupol, according to a June 24 report from Ukraine's Center for National Resistance.
The [Russian] occupation authorities in temporarily occupied Enerhodar now exert maximum pressure, including reported instances of torture, against those who refuse to obtain Russian passports. As a result, after 15 months of occupation, obtaining a Russian passport has become a means for many individuals in Enerhodar to protect their health and life, according to Orlov. He further highlighted the ongoing severe repression by the occupiers, who break into and loot vacant apartments while sealing them off. Moreover, individuals without Russian passports are being abducted and pressured to acquire them within a limited timeframe.
Polish PM: Poland strengthens defense on borders with Belarus and Russia. Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said on June 25 that the Polish military had strengthened the defensive lines on the country's eastern borders with Belarus and more than 230 kilometers of the border with Russia's Kaliningrad Oblast in the northeast.
Copenhagen Conference: Senior government security advisers from the global South and the West met with Ukraine’s leadership on June 24 in Copenhagen to discuss a path to peace. The presence of government security officials from South Africa, India, Brazil, Turkey and Saudi Arabia, countries that have refused to take sides in the Russia’s war against Ukraine, was seen as a significant sign of engagement, if not, endorsement of Ukraine’s defence of its sovereign territory. Senior advisers from G7 countries were also present including Italy, UK, France, Canada, Germany, Japan, but not the United Arab Emirates and China. The most complex issue is whether Russia needs any security guarantees from the West.
Secretary Blinken spoke with with the foreign ministers of Ukraine, Poland and Turkey on June 24 to discuss the situation in Russia. Secretary Blinken reiterated that support by the United States for Ukraine will not change.
Ukraine's government has repatriated 373 children illegally taken [by Russian occupiers] to Russian territory. Children returned from deportation have spoken about experiencing both moral and physical abuse at the hands of the Russians.
Germany to provide 45 more Gepard anti-aircraft guns by end of 2023, an official says. Germany will supply Ukraine with 45 more Gepard self-propelled anti-aircraft guns by the end of the year, with 15 of them expected to arrive in the coming weeks, German Brigadier General Christian Freuding said in an interview published on June 25.
Ukrainian embassy accuses Israel of pro-Russian position, Israel prepares response. According to the embassy, the signs of Israel's pro-Russian position were almost no humanitarian assistance to Ukraine, several controversial interviews by the country’s Prime Minister Netanyahu, and recent “two rounds of high-level political negotiations with the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs.”
U.S. spies learned in mid-June Prigozhin was planning armed action in Russia—WaPo
The intelligence fed concerns about whether Vladimir Putin would remain in power and what any instability could mean for control of Russia’s nuclear arsenal
U.S. spy agencies picked up intelligence in mid-June indicating Wagner mercenary chief Yevgeniy Prigozhin was planning armed action against the Russian defense establishment — which he has long accused of bungling the war in Ukraine — and urgently informed the White House and other government agencies so they were not caught off guard, several U.S. officials said Saturday.
The exact nature and timing of Prigozhin’s plans were not clear until shortly before his stunning takeover of a military command and tank run toward Moscow on Friday and Saturday, officials said. But “there were enough signals to be able to tell the leadership … that something was up,” said one U.S. official, who like others spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the matter’s sensitivity. “So I think they were ready for it.”
Over the past two weeks there was “high concern” about what might transpire — whether Russian President Vladimir Putin would remain in power and what any instability might mean for control of Russia’s nuclear arsenal, the official said. “There were lots of questions along those lines,” this person said.
In addition to the White House, senior officials at the Pentagon, State Department and in Congress were briefed within the past two weeks on the intelligence, officials said. CNN earlier reported that officials had briefed congressional leaders this past week.
A key trigger for Prigozhin, officials said, was a June 10 Russian Defense Ministry order that all volunteer detachments would have to sign contracts with the government. Though the order did not mention Wagner Group by name, the implication was clear: a takeover of Prigozhin’s mercenary troops, who have proved essential to Russia’s military campaign in Ukraine and have helped secure some of its most notable tactical victories. [continue]
Mutiny aftermath
All transport restrictions in Rostov region have been lifted, including those on highways, Russian news agencies reported on Sunday, citing local officials.
Lithuanian president Gitanas Nausėda warned that Nato will need to strengthen its eastern flank if Belarus becomes the new host of Wagner head Yevgeny Prigozhin. Following a state security council meeting on the mercenary group’s attempt to revolt against Russian military leadership, Nausėda said: “If Prigozhin or part of the Wagner group ends up in Belarus with unclear plans and unclear intentions, it will only mean that we need to further strengthen the security of our eastern borders.”
Solovyev’s reflections on Prigozhin’s mutiny: “This is a serious blow to the authority of the country, and to the authority of the president... So this is a very bad symptom" - Russian propagandists criticising Putin. One interesting tidbit from Solovyev’s conversation is that China is considered to be on Russia’s side.
Putin, Erdogan discuss Wagner insurrection. Russian President Vladimir Putin and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan held a phone call on June 24 to discuss the ongoing Wagner Group’s armed rebellion in Russia.
Russian law enforcement finds fake passports, cash suitcases at Prigozhin's office. Russian law enforcement allegedly found five kilos of gold bars and some unidentified white powder after searching Prigozhin's office, Russian independent news outlets reported. (Monique: this ‘evidence’ could have been used against Prigozhin in a trial had he been arrested for the mutiny.)
Whoever did this Zoolander spoof video meme: it’s brill.
Prigozhin case will be dropped, he will move to Belarus. The insurrection case against Wagner founder Yevgeny Prigozhin will be closed, and he will move to Belarus, Russian dictator Vladimir Putin's spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on June 24.
State Department to postpone sanctions against Wagner activity in Africa. The U.S. State Department is reportedly planning to delay new sanctions against the Wagner Group's activities in Africa, the Wall Street Journal said on June 24.
Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani believes that the rebellion attempt, committed by the Wagner Private Military Company (PMC), showed the weakness of Russia and the Russian government and can also help Ukraine in an interview with Il Messaggero. He also expressed hope that after the rebellion attempt, Ukraine's counteroffensive "will move even faster, and Ukrainians will restore their independence".
"This internal escalation is dividing the Russian military. It's an inevitable result when you support and finance a legion of mercenaries," he added, which only means that Russian forces are weaker on the front lines.
"It (the invasion of Ukraine - ed.) turned out to be a boomerang for Putin. The Russians could not win; they failed the blitzkrieg. Now they are paying for the problems and contradictions of the military apparatus," the Italian minister believes.
Olga Ivshina, What will Putin do next?
He will definitely react by showing force - he has always done so.
This could be further clamping down on internal freedoms and even stronger regulation of the media sphere, including influential Telegram channels.
Or Putin may conduct another set of military strikes on the territory of Ukraine.
Or maybe both.
One thing is clear - if Ukraine breaks Russian fortifications on the frontline next week, Moscow will definitely blame that on Wagner and its so-called betrayal.
Alexander Khara, Consequences
If we assume that today's attempted coup was not staged, we can draw the following conclusions:
- Firstly, Vladimir Putin personally lost control over the situation and allegedly escaped Moscow. He has chosen a ride, not an ammo [compared to Zelensky]. It’s a sign of weakness that undermines his macho image in a country ruled by criminal-like customs rather than by law and institutions. The massive blow to the cult of personality will play a role in the future.
- Secondly, the “peacemaking” role of Alexander Lukashenko, if true, equated two tyrants and a warlord. It is well noted at home and abroad. The authoritarian leaders appreciate a firm grip over power and disrespect those who aren’t strong enough.
- Thirdly, the involvement of a so-called private military company like Wagner highlights the failure of the state. While these entities were created to carry out covert operations without direct connections to the Kremlin (seizure of Crimea, the war in Donbas since 2014, Syria, Africa and other places), their participation in the coup reveals the extent of their political influence. Wagner’s chieftain and several militaries confessed that they played in a show in Ukraine from the beginning. Such revolutions threw out theories about a civil war in Ukraine. Prigozhin also admitted that there was no massive shelling of the Russia-occupied cities by the UAF, and Ukraine wasn’t about to “invade” those territories, an important justification for war made by Putin.
- Fourthly, over-militarized Russia turned out to be defenseless. Military command failed to enforce actions from subordinates, some of whom joined the failed junta. As previous attacks of the Russian freedom fighters on Belgorod showed, Moscow could hardly gather sizable force and cope with the intrusion.
- Fifth, the locals in the cities and towns seized by Wagner didn’t organize resistance. Many of them showed sympathy to Wagner mercenaries because they were dissatisfied with Moscow and the way Putin and his closest friends and subjects waged war.
The failed advance to Moscow, called the “March for Justice”, will leave many in Wagner and those who joined them disappointed. Feelings of injustice and betrayal are multiplied and will play a crucial role in the future. It may show that violence is crucial to bringing “justice,” while agreements serve only those better off and in power. “Either Putin or Prigozhin will be dead before year end. There is no room in Russia for both of them,” Timothy Ash twitted.
Finally, the West got a hint that there should be contingency planning in case of civil war and the dissolution of Russia. Politically correct phraseology about the absence of regime change intentions didn’t impress Putin and did not prevent such events. A failed state and society under such pressure are increasingly heading toward a collapse. The failed coup d’état in 1991 galvanized the dissolution of the Soviet Union.
Russia will remain an unstable and unpredictable entity balancing on the edge of collapse for a long time. Ukraine’s role as a guardian of the rest has increased. So, it needs more support to fight for its sovereignty and territorial integrity, therefore mitigating the threats to others and bringing an unstable regime to inevitable collapse.