Jun 27: E-Stories
Day 488: Kherson Nikopol UACounteroffensive PrigoPutin Biden NATO LITH Wallace USpolling Australia Hungary Lebedev A&P UKDef ISW Rosenberg Shoigu Jamala Crerar MacKay Leitch Tortoise AtlanticCouncil
Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
Best summary on the Wagner rebellion so far.
Stories we’re following…
One person was killed and seven others including a pregnant woman were injured after Kherson was hit by heavy shelling Monday, a Ukrainian military official said. Oleksandr Prokudin, head of the Kherson region military administration, said on Telegram that residential districts of the southern city were among areas hit by 17 shells.
Ukraine's main counteroffensive is yet to come. After three weeks, the ongoing Ukrainian counteroffensive remains in “some kind of preparatory operation.” Ukraine's Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov said in an interview with the U.S.-based TV channel Fox News on June 25.
The Deputy Minister of Defence, Hanna Malyar says Ukraine has retaken southeastern village of Rivnopil, Donetsk Oblast, from Russian control in the southeast. There are two settlements called Rivnopil in Donetsk Oblast. The liberated one sits near the administrative border with the neighboring Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
Ukrainian forces reportedly advance north, south of Bakhmut. As part of their larger counteroffensive, Ukraine’s forces have “gained impetus" in attacks around Bakhmut, advancing on both the northern and southern flanks of the city, the U.K. Defense Ministry reported on June 26. Ukraine’s Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar also reported successes near Bakhmut.
Russian forces also attacked 30 settlements in Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts over the past day, according to the report.
Russian forces attempted assaults in the Bakhmut, Lyman, and Marinka sectors in the east, where 20 engagements occurred, according to the General Staff of Ukraine’s Armed Forces. Russia continues reinforcement in Bakhmut with airborne troops. This “clearly indicates” that Moscow seeks to hold the city, Eastern Command spokesperson Serhii Cherevatyi said.
The Russians have said they suspended bus service between Crimea and the city of Henichesk, Kherson Oblast, which is under the control of the Russian occupiers, supposedly until 30 June, TASS reports. It is reported that the carrier from occupied Crimea has stopped service on routes from Simferopol, Dzhankoi and Yalta.
Dnipro River returns to its banks after flooding caused by Kakhovka Dam explosion. The Dnipro River in Kherson has returned to its banks after the flooding caused by the Russian June 6 Kakhovka Dam explosion, the Environment Ministry reported on June 25.
Russian sabotage group fails to cross Ukrainian border in Sumy Oblast. The General Staff of Ukraine's Armed Forces reported on June 25 that a Russian subversive-reconnaissance group failed to cross Ukraine’s state border in the settlement of Rodionivka, Sumy Oblast.
Russian defence minister Sergei Shoigu has visited troops in Ukraine, Russian news agency Ria has reported, his first public appearance since the Wagner mutiny at the weekend. He has not commented on the Wagner rebellion.
The minister also paid special attention to the organization of support for the troops involved in the special military operation and the creation of conditions for the safe deployment of personnel.
Steve Rosenberg: Today’s Russian newspapers on Prigozhin’s armed uprising: “Russia displayed its vulnerability, to the whole world & to itself.” “The events of 24 June will have long term consequences for the country…”
US president Joe Biden on Monday said a brief uprising by Wagner against the Kremlin is part of a struggle within the Russian system and the United States and its allies were not involved in it. “We made clear we were not involved, we had nothing to do with this,” Biden said in his first comments on the uprising that fizzled over the weekend, Reuters reported.
Prigozhin says he started rebellion to protest Wagner dissolution, not topple government. The Wagner Group's founder Yevgeny Prigozhin published a statement through his press service on June 26, addressing the reasons for starting and abruptly ending his June 23-24 rebellion. "Lukashenko extended his hand and offered to find solutions for the further work of Wagner Private Military Company in a legal jurisdiction" Prigozhin said in the audio recording.
As Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin’s insurrection attempt played out over the weekend, US diplomats were busy sending messages to Russian officials.
Diplomats, including the US ambassador to Russia Lynne Tracy, conveyed two main messages: the US expects Russia to uphold their obligation to ensure safety and security of the US embassy and personnel, and the US was “not involved in this matter and would not involve ourselves,” a senior State Department official explained. Another message that was sent to Russian officials from US officials included a push for Russia not to use its nuclear arsenal, another US official explained.
The EU’s high representative on foreign affairs, Josep Borrell, has said the EU’s view of the future of Russia had changed over the past 48 hours, with political instability and internal fragility in a nuclear power adding to the military danger already posed by Moscow. “
President of Lithuania, Gitanas Nausėda, has stated that the attempted coup by the "Wagner Group" indicates that similar or even greater disturbances can be expected in Russia in the future. As reported by LRTff, he made these remarks after his meeting with Stoltenberg. He added that the events in Russia could impact the security situation in Lithuania and the region. The potential presence of the "Wagner Group" in Belarus will pose another challenge.
You thought it was over? Think again. Putin’s address to the nation. Yahoo. Please note that Belarus is being talked about as if it’s already part of Russia.
Ukraine’s FM Kuleba urged the EU on Monday to “accelerate Russia’s defeat” by stepping up support for Ukraine. Reuters reports Kuleba, who was attending a meeting with EU foreign ministers, said on Twitter the fact that tanks had moved towards Moscow during a thwarted coup showed that “Ukraine will win”.
The US is expected to announce another military aid package to Ukraine totaling approximately $500 million, a US official told CNN. The aid, which is expected to be announced on Tuesday, will include additional Bradley and Stryker fighting vehicles, the official said, and will be provided to Ukraine via Presidential Drawdown Authority.
British Defense Secretary Ben Wallace said on Monday that Storm Shadow long-range missiles supplied to Ukraine by the United Kingdom have had a “significant impact on the battlefield.” "It has had an effect on the Russian army," Wallace told lawmakers in the House of Commons. "We absolutely would urge other international partners to come forward with their deep fires that are required."
European politicians are determined to make Russia pay for the damage caused by the invasion of Ukraine, but legal obstacles prevent either the confiscation of the frozen reserves of the Bank of Russia, or, apparently, the use of the income from their investment. A European diplomat participating in the discussion told the Financial Times “It’s more difficult than it first seemed.” Now the EU Commission is working on a plan, according to which financial institutions (in particular, depositories), where Russian assets are located, will have to transfer part of the profits received from them.
A new poll shows a majority of Americans of all political orientations support Ukrainian victory, even while some remain unconvinced of the need to support Ukraine with weapons. Seventy-six percent of respondents believe Ukraine’s victory is “important for the United States,” according to the June survey by the Reagan Institute. Democrats were somewhat more pro-Ukraine, with 86 percent in favor of Ukrainian victory versus 71 percent of Republicans. Independents were less likely to favor a Ukrainian victory, with 58 percent supporting it. While 76 percent support a Ukrainian victory, just 59 percent of Americans said the U.S. should send military aid to Ukraine. Democrats were far more willing to send weapons to Ukraine than Republicans, with 75 percent in favor of sending weapons versus 50 percent of Republicans.
CNN: The events that unfolded in Russia over the weekend demonstrate that Putin made a “big strategic mistake” by launching a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said Monday during a visit to Lithuania’s capital Vilnius. "As Russia continues its assault, it is even more important to continue our support to Ukraine," Stoltenberg said. Stoltenberg added that “once the war ends, we must put arrangements in place for Ukraine's security so that history does not repeat itself.”
"Ukrainians have launched a counteroffensive to retake occupied land. The more land they are able to retake, the stronger their hand will be at the negotiating table to achieve a just and lasting peace."
Ukraine expects to receive a clear invitation for simplified accession to Nato when the military alliance holds a summit next month in Lithuania, a senior official said on Monday. Andriy Yermak, head of the presidential staff, reiterated Ukraine’s position on Nato accession in comments published after Russia thwarted a march by mercenaries heading towards Moscow at the weekend, Reuters reported.
ISW: Russian sources speculate on specifics of Lukashenko-mediated deal with Prigozhin. Russian independent news outlet Meduza, citing unnamed internal Kremlin sources, reported that Yevgeny Prigozhin initially tried to get in touch with the Russian Presidential Administration midday June 24 as Wagner fighters moved north from Rostov-on-Don towards Moscow.
Girkin-Strelkov suggested that Putin resign: "If the current president is not ready to take charge of the process of putting the country on a military footing, if he is not ready for the powers of the Supreme Commander-in-Chief, then he simply needs to hand them over to someone capable of such hard work," Strelkov said.
Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic has praised Putin's "strong stance" in bringing an end to the brief insurrection led by Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin. Putin was the one "who got it done" and described the Russian president's actions as "sharp and decisive." Vucic also criticized the Wagner group's actions as "a stab in the back" to their own country and said a mistake had been made in Russia giving the group "enormous power."
Hungary has not supported the allocation of the next tranche of 500 million euros of the European Peace Fund to EU member states over the blacklisting of OTP Bank by the Ukrainians.
"We are ready to change our mind if the Ukrainians put an end to the ridiculous, lying state whereby OTP, the biggest Hungarian bank, is on the list of the international sponsors of war," Reuters quotes Péter Szijjártó, Hungarian Foreign Minister, who announced this at a press conference on Monday.
I was waiting to see how long it would take for someone in the US to say that the Wagner mutiny was a US piloted event. The Fox network doesn’t disappoint.
Queen was asked to block Evgeny Lebedev’s peerage, claims documentary—The Guardian
Exclusive: Channel 4 film says officials contacted the palace in 2020 owing to concerns about Lord Lebedev’s father’s links to Putin regime [continue]
Government officials asked whether the late Queen would block Evgeny Lebedev’s peerage because of concerns that he could be a national security risk due to his father’s links to the Putin regime, a documentary has claimed.
The Channel 4 exposè is in part based on the research done by Paul Guarana Galizia in March 2022:
Programming note: Jun 28, 2023 @ 4pm CET
The Kremlin’s large invasion in February of 2022 has left Russia more diplomatically and economically isolated than ever before, while the failure of the invasion to achieve Putin’s maximalist objectives has led to tensions in Moscow. Cracks in the once tightly controlled edifice of the Putin regime are growing. Political repression at home forced Russian opposition groups abroad, reinvigorating initiatives that aim to shape a post-Putin Russia.