Jun 28: E-Stories
June 27 events in Ukraine and Russia, Trump, Kyiv Independent, Zelensky
Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
My apologies for not getting the post out at 7am and for its brevity. I was tied up all day yesterday, and by the time I could get to it, I was too knackered to put it together properly. E-Stories will be back to its normal format tomorrow.
I went to a series of meetings yesterday, and the first question asked by those present was: What does the Wagner mutiny mean for the continuation of the war in Ukraine. They wanted to know if the events of June 23 and June 24 signalled the end of Putin’s regime and/or a collapse of the Russian state.
That’s a loaded question because I would have to go back in history to give a proper explanation. The current regime has been ‘collapsing’ for about a year. The signs were there:
an increase in repressive domestic measures and centralisation of power in the hands of the Kremlin;
Kazak president Tokayev asked the Russian forces to leave Kazakhstan in January 2022 when they moved in as a ‘peace-keeping’ mission;
an increase of criticial voices in public and in private from Russia’s allies in the CSTO and Iran snubbing Putin;
resorting to Wagner forces in Bakhmut instead of using Russian regular armed forces, and Prigozhin’s lithany of videos starting from October 2022 criticising the regime;
an increase in sanctions levied on Russian businesses whose effects are being felt now, to name a few.
The mutiny we all saw playing out on June 23 and 24 were well planned, and executed. I would guess that Prigozhin and Wagner commanders weren’t working alone, but may have got the greenlight from Kremlin insiders and/or military leaders. Now Putin is lashing out in an effort to ward off further challenges to his power, including purging the military of Wagner sympathisers in Syria for example.
The current Russian state will collapse, so I hope our leaders are taking it seriously, and devising plans on how to handle the repercussions in terms of our domestic security needs and those of the collective NATO membership and the European Union.
President Zelensky’s closest adviser, Andriy Yermak, has claimed the “countdown has started” on the end of Vladimir Putin’s tenure as Russian president. At a briefing for reporters Tuesday in Kyiv, he said:
What Ukraine has seen since 2014 has become evident for the entire world. This [Russia] is a terrorist country whose leader is an inadequate person who has lost connection with reality. The world must conclude that it’s impossible to have any kind of serious relationship with that country.
The BBC also spoke to Oleksiy Danilov, head of Ukraine’s national security and defence council, who suggested Putin faces significant opposition in his inner circle, including those representing oligarchs. “Prigozhin is not the most senior. They might become the new political elite,” he is quoted as saying.
Stories we’re following…
President Zelensky: “Exactly on the anniversary of the Russian terrorists' attack on Kremenchuk, on the shopping mall, when 22 people were killed, Russian savages again fired missiles at the Kremenchuk district.
Russian terrorists also brutally shelled Kramatorsk. S-300 missiles. Unfortunately, there are killed and wounded. Assistance is being provided. The rubble is being cleared. Each such manifestation of terror proves over and over again to us and to the whole world that Russia deserves only one thing as a result of everything it has done - defeat and a tribunal, fair and legal trials against all Russian murderers and terrorists. And I thank again and again everyone in the world who supports Ukraine and helps protect our people!”
Russian missiles hit downtown Kramatorsk, at least 9 killed, 60 injured. Kramatorsk in Donetsk Oblast was struck by two Russian missile strikes on June 27. The first strike hit a restaurant in the city's center, the other targeted the nearby settlement of Bilenke.
Reuters spoke to one person on the scene, Valentyna, a 64-year-old woman who declined to give her surname. She said she had run there “after the explosion because I rented a cafe here. Everything has been blown out. None of the glass, windows or doors are left. All I see is destruction, fear and horror. This is the 21st century.”
Aa result of the Russian strike on Kramatorsk, three citizens of Colombia were injured, who had dinner at a restaurant with Ukrainian writer Victoria Amelina. They are Colombian MP Sergio Jaramillo, writer Hector Abad and journalist Catalina Gomez. Victoria herself is now in critical condition.
Tim White: Sisters, schoolgirls. Yuliya and Anna both died in the Kramatorsk attack by Russia. They were 14 years old - here seen having made a card celebrating the 60th birthday of their school.
On June 25, the Russian forces shelled areas of Syria and on June 27 they shelled other civilian areas of Ukraine as well in retaliation for the Wagner mutiny and to show what they believe is ‘strength’ but clearly fall within the category of war crimes since the targets weren’t military installations or aimed at establishing more advantageous ground for troop activity at the front. The pattern repeats itself: Russia is humiliated, and we can expect retaliation in some form on the civilian population.
Russian forces strike Kremenchuk on anniversary of Amstor shopping mall attack. Russian troops targeted Kremenchuk on June 27 with the same missiles that hit local shopping mall Amstor exactly a year ago, according to Poltava Oblast Governor Dmytro Lunin. The Kremenchuk shopping mall attack killed more than 20 people and injured 59.
Russian occupation authorities in Mariupol evict residents from their homes. Moscow-installed occupation authorities in Mariupol are illegally evicting residents from their homes if they cannot provide property ownership documents, according to an exiled advisor to city mayor Petro Andriushchenko.
Other developments
Ukrainian Air Defence Forces shot down six Shahed-136/131 loitering munitions on the night of 27-28 June, reports the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The air defence infrastructure provided by Ukraine’s allies has been an important contribution to Ukraine’s defence.
Military reports advances up to 1,400 meters in different sectors. Ukrainian forces advanced up to 1,400 meters in various sectors of the front over the past day, Serhii Cherevatyi, the spokesman for the Eastern Command, said on June 27.
Russian forces attack 11 oblasts, kill at least 10 over past day. Over the past day, Russian strikes targeted 11 oblasts, killing at least 10 civilians, Ukrainian regional administrations reported on the morning of June 28.
Evacuation plans prepared in event of Russian attack at Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant. Ukraine has put plans in place to evacuate residents of several oblasts in the event Russia carries out an attack at the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, Ombudsman Dmytro Lubinets said on national television, the Ukrainian media outlet New Voice reported.
US gathered detailed intelligence on Prigozhin's insurrection plans but kept it secret. The intelligence was shared only with select allies, such as senior U.K. officials, and not at the broader NATO level, sources familiar with the matter told CNN. The secrecy level was so high that even within the country, only top administration officials and several high-profile Congress members were briefed on the findings.
Belarus gave wanted Ukrainian oligarch diplomatic post to block extradition to US. Belarus assigned the Ukrainian businessman Dmytro Firtash with a diplomatic post in Vienna to avoid his extradition to the U.S., Deutsche Welle reported on June 27.
Allies advised Ukraine not to strike inside Russia during Wagner rebellion. "The message was don't rock the boat here," an unnamed Western official told CNN, explaining it by the allies' efforts to ensure the West and Ukraine were not seen as helping Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin.
Pentagon confirms $500 million military aid package for Ukraine. The Pentagon announced on June 27 a $500 million military aid package for Ukraine, including armored vehicles, anti-armor weapons, and munitions.
CNN: Trump audio