Jun 29: E-Stories
Day 490: Kramatorsk Melitopol Reznikov Prystan Zapo UNreport UK Ukrenergo NATO ConstitutionDay NATO Erdogan USsanctions Switzerland A&P UKDef Dispatches Sandu Davis Lubiakova Lee Mott Trad
Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
Vasyl Malyuk, the head of the Security Service of Ukraine, said in a statement: “The agent of the Russian Federation will definitely answer to the Ukrainian court. But his detention is also a signal to all other adjusters and traitors who work for the enemy. Remember – the punishment is inevitable! We constantly conduct legal work and continue to collect evidence for international courts.”
Stories we’re following…
At least 11 people died in a Russian missile strike on a pizza restaurant in the eastern city of Kramatorsk Tuesday evening, and at least three teenagers are reportedly among the dead; 61 others were wounded, according to the Associated Press. The venue, the Ria Lounge bar, was a frequent spot for not just locals but also journalists, including Colin Freeman of the Telegraph, who was called away from Ria for an interview elsewhere in Kramatorsk just minutes before it was hit in the missile strike. "By the time we headed back to the scene of the bombing, rescue workers were picking their way through a massive pile of smoking rubble, ferrying out the dead and wounded on a stretcher," Freeman reports.
Six explosions reported in Russian-occupied Melitopol. A "series of explosions" occurred in the Russian-occupied city of Melitopol, according to Vladimir Rogov, a collaborator with the illegal occupation administration in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
Military reports advances of 1.5 km in Melitopol direction. Ukrainian forces have advanced up to 1.5 kilometers in the Melitopol direction, Interfax-Ukraine reported on June 26, citing the spokesperson for the Taurida Group of Forces Valerii Shershen.
Kyiv hasn't yet gone all-in. "Ukraine's main troop reserves, including most brigades recently trained in the west and equipped with modern Nato tanks and armoured vehicles, have yet to be used" in the counteroffensive, the Financial Times reported this week, citing Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov.
Rady Mott: Reading between the lines.
June 28 and we see Ukrainians advances accelerating across a broad number of areas on the front. [Even making Russia state TV]. The strategy has been to force engagement and fix the front while destroying reserve concentrations, HQs, artillery, AD and ammo centers that are behind the lines.
The Russians rushed reserve units forward days ago and these have been reduced, destroyed or pushed back in most cases. Russian losses are breaking monthly and daily records at a time when there is less Russian eqpt to lose and of poorer quality. Detailed reports on locations are not being provided by UKR army due to opsec. But we know from what is provided and from Russian sources, the war is not going well for Russians.
About 80% of the Ukrainian units organized and equipped for the counter-offensive have NOT been committed. These are very well-equipped and highly mobile units. They will attack the seams or gaps opened up or discovered by the initial UKR engaged units.
I sense that we are getting much closer to the day when this will happen and all hell will break loose on the Russian occupiers.
The Ukrainian Defence Forces have managed to seize the strategic initiative at the front and have been pushing forward, said Valerii Zaluzhnyi, Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU), during a telephone conversation with Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff General Mark Milley.
Ukraine’s MoD spokesperson, Hanna Maliar reports that in “Gola Prystan, in the temporarily occupied territory of the Kherson region, in the confiscated buildings, the occupiers set up warehouses for storing looted property and points for disassembling stolen cars into spare parts for their further sale on the territory of the Russian Federation.”
In the settlements of Gornostaivka, Kairy, and Zavodivka of the Kherson region, the occupiers strictly forbade the provision of free medical care to our people who did not receive Russian passports or did not apply for Russian passports.
Russian forces kidnap children from Zaporizhzhia, transport them to Chuvash Republic. The administration of Russian-occupied parts of Zaporizhzhia Oblast has been taking local children to Russia under the guise of 'vacation,' while actually kidnapping them from their homes and not returning them, Ukraine's Center for National Resistance said on June 26.
Russia detains over 800 civilians in occupied territories of Ukraine, killing 77 of them - UN Since the beginning of the full-scale war against Ukraine in February last year, Russia has detained more than 800 civilians in the temporarily occupied territories, executing 77 of them.
The Ministry of Finance of Russia is studying the possibility of applying a progressive scale of personal income tax and is ready to consider calculations related to its increase to 30%, said Alexei Sazanov, deputy head of the department. The Ministry of Finance is assessing how effective the current mechanism for collecting this tax is. The basic personal income tax rate for Russian citizens is 13%. But for those whose income exceeds 5 million rubles a year, it increases to 15%.
The Russian government began to drastically reduce federal budget spending after commodity revenues halved and even a change in the mechanism for taxing oil could not raise them. The deficit of the federal treasury thus reached 3.886 trillion rubles, or 134% of the amount included in the budget law. Oil and gas revenues halved from 5.658 to 2.853 trillion rubles after oil companies had to introduce double-digit discounts for buyers in India and China, and gas exports to the key European market collapsed to levels of the 1970s.
C4 Dispatches uncovers how Boris Johnson chose to ignore security advice and make the son of an ex-Russian spy with alleged links to the Kremlin a member of the House of Lords. “I know of no other example where the prime minister has overruled intelligence advice.”
Belarus gave wanted Ukrainian oligarch diplomatic post to block extradition to US. Belarus assigned the Ukrainian businessman Dmytro Firtash with a diplomatic post in Vienna to avoid his extradition to the U.S., Deutsche Welle (DW) reported on June 27. U.S. prosecutors charged Firtash with racketeering and bribery in 2014 and he was briefly arrested in Austria before posting bail. The Ukrainian tycoon has so far avoided extradition from Austria's capital, where he resides.
The Kremlin has confirmed the arrival of papal envoy Cardinal Matteo Zuppi in Moscow for peace talks. Peskov said, “We highly value the efforts and initiatives of the Vatican and welcome the aspiration of the pope to contribution to ending the armed conflict”.
Reuters reports that Ukraine is due to face a power deficit later year, including throughout the autumn and winter, as its energy infrastructure struggles to recover from months of Russian missile attacks, the country’s national grid operator said on Wednesday. Volodymyr Kudrytskiy, head of state-owned Ukrenergo, said an unprecedented repair campaign was under way across the country and 50-60% of planned work had been completed, but the situation remained difficult.
Here is a picture from the Ukrainian parliament during a session dedicated to Constitution Day, which celebrates the adoption of the constitution of Ukraine on 28 June 1996. President Zelensky presents Anna, the wife of fallen soldier Oleksandr Lukianovych, the order of the ‘Hero of Ukraine’ while their daughter hands Zelenskiy a gift.
Reznikov: Ukraine fulfills 3 key conditions for NATO membership. Ukraine has achieved all three key prerequisites for joining NATO, Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov told The Guardian on June 28. Reznikov listed these conditions as interoperability with NATO forces, a transparent procurement system, and civilian control of the military.
Polish, Lithuanian presidents back Ukraine's NATO membership ahead of Vilnius summit. Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky met his Polish and Lithuanian counterparts, Andrzej Duda and Gitanas Nausėda, in Kyiv on June 28, to discuss military support and Ukraine's NATO aspirations.
President Zelensky said he wanted to receive a signal that the country could join Nato after its war with Russia ends on Wednesday.
“We understand that we cannot be a member of Nato during the war, but we need to be sure that after the war we will be,” Zelenskiy told a press conference with the visiting Polish and Lithuanian presidents.
“That is the signal we want to get – that after the war Ukraine will be a member of Nato”.
Turkish president Tayyip Erdogan and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz held a phone call on Wednesday where they discussed developments in Russia and Sweden’s Nato bid, according to the Turkish presidency’s communications directorate.Erdogan said Sweden has taken steps in the right direction, referring to a new anti-terrorism law targeted at Kurdish and anti-Turkish government groups, which include the Kurdistan Workers’ party (PKK) and the Gülen movement, which came into force this month.
Draghi having a meal at Fiucimino Airport. It is well-known that former Italian prime minister Mario Draghi lived a very low key lifestyle out of the limelight. He doesn’t have a social media account, and there are very few pictures of his private life.
The U.S. just imposed new sanctions on Wagner-linked companies working to exploit Africa's gold mines. The four companies are based variously in the Central African Republic (Midas Ressources and Diamville SAU), the United Arab Emirates (Industrial Resources General Trading), and Russia (Limited Liability Company DM), the Treasury Department said Tuesday. A Russian citizen in Mali, Andrey Nikolayevich Ivanov, was also sanctioned.
The US has also issued a unique business risk advisory focused on the gold sector across sub-Saharan Africa. The advisory highlights the opportunities and specific risks raised by the gold trade across sub-Saharan Africa and encourages industry participants to adopt and apply strengthened due diligence practices to ensure that malign actors, such as the Wagner Group, are unable to exploit and benefit from the sector, which remains essential to the livelihoods of millions of people across the continent.
Ukrainian Ambassador: EU considers scenario Russia's collapse The European Union has long been discussing the actions of the European community and member states under various scenarios in Russia.
The Pentagon on Tuesday announced another $500 million in weapons to Ukraine, including lots of artillery, Patriot air defense missiles, radar-seeking missiles, anti-tank missiles, 30 Bradley Infantry Fighting Vehicles, 25 Stryker Armored Personnel Carriers, as well as "demolitions munitions and systems for obstacle clearing," unspecified mine-clearing equipment, and more.
EU to increase European Peace Fund by $3.8 billion. The Council of the European Union announced on June 26 the decision to increase the financial ceiling of the European Peace Facility (EPF) by 3.5 billion euros ($3.8 billion). The facility is used to provide military aid to Ukraine and other partners of the EU.
UK officials are coordinating with the European Union over plans to seize the interest on billions of frozen Russian assets and send the proceeds to Ukraine. The transfer of the interest on the frozen Russian assets is seen as one of the most legally viable routes to use Russian assets to help the recovery of Ukraine. The UK Treasury minister John Glenn told MPs this week “We have sanctioned 24 banks with global assets of over £940 billion and 120 elites with a combined worth of £140 billion”.
Lithuania to transfer 2 NASAMS launchers to Ukraine. Lithuania has acquired two launchers for the NASAMS air defense system and will soon transfer them to Ukraine, the country's president Gitanas Nauseda announced on June 28.
Bulgarian government approves military aid package for Ukraine. Despite opposition from the country's president, the Bulgarian government approved on June 26 a new military aid package for Ukraine, the press service of the Council of Ministers announced on its website. (This is a surprise given Bulgaria’s pro-Kremlin bent.)
The Swiss government has rejected a request by Swiss defence company RUAG to re-export 96 Leopard 1 tanks to Ukraine that were supposed to be delivered to Ukraine after refurbishment in Germany. As mentioned in a statement from June 28, the Swiss Federal Council rejected a request by Ruag SA for the export of 96 Leopard 1 A5 tanks based on neutrality legislation. The tanks are currently in storage in Italy and would require refurbishment in Germany before being re-exported to Ukraine as military assistance.
American support for arming Ukraine soars, according to a survey conducted this week by Reuters/Ipsos. One thousand respondents chimed in, including nearly 400 Democrats and Republicans, as well as nearly 200 independents. Some 65% favored sending U.S. weapons to Ukraine, which is a nearly 20-point increase from just one month ago when 46% approved. That includes 81% of Democrats, 56% for Republicans, and 57% support among independents.
Annual profits at China's industrial firms extended a double-digit decline in the first five months as softening demand squeezed margins, reinforcing hopes of more policy support to bolster a stuttering post-COVID economic recovery.
The US is considering new restrictions on exports of artificial intelligence chips to China, the Wall Street Journal reported, citing people familiar with the matter.
On June 24, the oligarchs Arkady Rotenberg and Vladimir Potanin, the Minister of Industry Denis Manturov, perhaps in Abramovich (Moscow-Istanbul-Tel Aviv) had left Russia. Yuri Kovalchuk's son's plane flew from Moscow to St. Petersburg
Putin admitting that Wagner was funded by the Russian government. In the past, Putin has always denied that Wagner was affiliated to the Russian government in order to maintain plausible deniability in its operations in Ukraine and in other states.
"Funding of the entire #Wagner group was fully provided by the state, the Ministry of Defense, the state budget. We fully funded this group. In May 2022-23, the state paid Wagner R86,262,000,000 ($2.5 bn.)"
Mutiny fallout
Lukashenko said he persuaded the Russian President not to "wipe out" Prigozhin, in response to what the Kremlin cast as a mutiny that pushed Russia towards civil war. Lukashenko does not have any power to persuade Putin or any other figure involved in the mutiny.
“I said: in no case do not make a hero out of me, neither of me, nor of Putin, nor of Prigozhin, because we missed the situation, and then we thought that it would resolve, but it did not resolve. And two people who fought at the front collided. There are no heroes in this case.”
Lukashenka: “My position: if Russia collapses, we will remain under the rubble, we will all die.” If he speaks about his regime, then for sure. He understands who is the sponsor of his rule.
Eastern European NATO countries warned that a move of Wagner's Russian mercenary troops to Belarus would create greater regional instability, but NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said the alliance is ready to defend itself against any threat.
President Zelensky: “Wagnerites are in occupied territory in Ukraine - they were and are in the [eastern] Luhansk region,” Zelensky told a press conference, confirming that some of the group’s fighters remained on Ukrainian soil after fighting in the east.
Asked about the presence of Wagner mercenaries in Belarus, he said: “I don’t think this contingent will be very big. Our army believes that the situation in the north of our country is unchanged and is under our control,” he said.
Two articles of note today: the NYT article on general Surovikin and the WSJ article on who within the Russian military leadership knew of the mutiny. There will be a slew of these articles published in the future, and they will contain truthful information.
Reid Standish: As Wagner forces seized a major Russian military hub and ordered an armed march on Moscow on June 24, Chinese officials were silent. Chinese state media provided straight, factual coverage as events unfolded on the ground and, unsurprisingly, offered no sympathy for Prigozhin or Wagner, and instead largely echoed rhetoric from Putin's speech about the need for law, order, and stability. China broke its silence on June 25.
"This is a matter of Russia's domestic affairs," the Chinese Foreign Ministry said in a statement. "China supports Russia in safeguarding national stability and delivering development and prosperity."
That same day, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Andrei Rudenko flew to Beijing for what was said to be a scheduled meeting, where he met with Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang.
Xi now has to balance continuing support for Putin with hedging for the possibility that the Russian leader's time in power could be cut short.
Xi's partnership with Putin is based on a cocktail of ideology and pragmatism, and several Chinese scholars have argued that Prighozin's rebellion could limit the pragmatic appeal of the Kremlin.
Wagner’s Prigozhin Planned to Capture Russian Military Leaders—Wall Street Journal
Mercenary leader Yevgeny Prigozhin planned to capture Russia’s military leadership as part of last weekend’s mutiny, Western officials said, and he accelerated his plans after the country’s domestic intelligence agency became aware of the plot.
Prigozhin originally intended to capture Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Gen. Valery Gerasimov, the chief of Russia’s general staff, during a visit to a southern region that borders Ukraine that the two were planning. But the Federal Security Service, or FSB, found out about the plan two days before it was to be executed, according to Western officials.
Gen. Viktor Zolotov, commander of the National Guard of Russia, a domestic military force that reports directly to President Vladimir Putin, also said authorities knew about Prigozhin’s intentions before he launched his attempt.
“Specific leaks about preparations for a rebellion that would begin between June 22-25 were leaked from Prigozhin’s camp,” Zolotov told state media on Tuesday.
Western intelligence agencies also found out early about the plans by Prigozhin, Putin’s former confidant, by analyzing electronic communications intercepts and satellite imagery, according to a person familiar with the findings. Western officials said they believe the original plot had a good chafter the conspiracy was leaked, forcing Prigozhin to improvise an alternative plan.
Still, the intelligence raises questions about the extent of Putin’s authority after Moscow failed to prevent Wagner troops from marching almost all the way to Moscow despite the Kremlin’s knowledge of the conspiracy, people familiar with the matter said.
