Jun 3: E-Stories
RUattacksUA CombatSit BehindLines InRussia RU-CH Allies POL CZ A&P Avdeeva ISW CDS UKDef UADef Checheliuk Kenyon Georgia Singapore Hungary NorKor US Salvini CrazyITAPol SoldatovBorogan FT
Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
Note to readers: there are quite a few articles that have come out in the past few days about Russian operations in Europe. I’ll be sifting through them in the next couple of days and get them posted on E-Stories. For the time being, I’ll leave you with the news from the past two days. But let’s begin with something heart-warming:
Maria Avdeeva: They say winning the war takes united action. Seeing the HUGS team in Kharkiv was amazing. This group of international volunteer mechanics led by Paul Hughes from Canada works nonstop to fix cars, bring aid, and help evacuated kids. Stronger together.
Stories we’re following…
Russian missile and drone attacks on Saturday morning damaged energy facilities in five regions, said Ukraine’s National Grid operator, Urkenergo. German Galuschkeno, minister for energy, said: “Energy facilities in Zaporizhzhya, Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kirovograd, Ivano-Frankivsk regions were attacked.”
Twelve people, including eight children, have been hospitalised after a strike close to two houses where they were sheltering in the Kharkiv region, said Gov. Oleh Syniehubov.
Ombudsman asks UN, Red Cross to investigate videos of alleged abuses of Ukrainian POWs. Ukraine’s Ombudsman Dmytro Lubinets said on June 2 that he appealed to the United Nations and the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) to investigate videos showing beatings, humiliation, and threats of Ukrainian prisoners of war by Russian soldiers in the Kharkiv direction.
This is Mariana Checheliuk from Mariupol, who was held in Russian captivity for 2 years. In the video she reads a poem dedicated to her mother.
Ground Forces: Some online videos of conflicts with mobilization officers are Russian information operation. Ukraine's Ground Forces said that a "heavy portion" of the videos on social media networks depicting conflicts with mobilization officers or Armed Forces servicemen are products of an "enemy information operation," according to the branch's Telegram post on June 2. Violence has occurred at some recruitment centers, making the issue vulnerable to exploitation by Russian disinformation actors.
More than 9,000 acres of forest engulfed in flames in Kharkiv Oblast, State Emergency Service says. There were at least nine separate fires, most of which were started by Russian strikes, the State Emergency Service said. Six of the fires, encompassing around 2,300 hectares (5,680 acres) were contained.
Governor: Ukraine's largest hydroelectric power plant in critical state following Russian strike. Zaporizhzhia's Dnipro Hydroelectric Station, Ukraine's largest hydroelectric power plant, is in critical condition after Russian forces struck it overnight on June 1, Zaporizhzhia Oblast Governor Ivan Fedorov said on national television.
Combat Situation Update
Jun 1: Several channels are reporting that the Ukrainian forces have launched counterattacks in the Kharkiv direction. Besides that, they state that their own offensive has come to a standstill.
"In the Kharkiv region, the picture is generally improving in our favour. I told you, the guys have a lot of ammo on HIMARS, and different rockets. Magyar has pulled up in the direction, and these are not only effective FPV drone crews, but also powerful EW/RBM systems."
Russia claims capture of Umanske village in Donetsk Oblast. In its daily situation report on June 2, the General Staff of Ukraine’s Armed Forces did not mention Umanske but did say Russian forces were "trying to advance" in the direction of Sokil, a village around 10 kilometers to the north.
Defense Ministry: Ukraine destroys record number of Russian artillery systems in May. Ukrainian forces destroyed 1,160 Russian artillery systems in May, a record month since the beginning of the full-scale invasion, the Defense Ministry said on June 1.
ISW: Russian forces recently marginally advanced east of Chasiv Yar amid continued ground attacks in the area on June 1. Geolocated footage published on June 1 shows that Russian forces recently marginally advanced south of Ivanivske (east of Chasiv Yar).
A HIMARS strike occurred in Soledar, Donetsk region, targeting the Knauf plant where the Russian 200th Separate Mechanized Brigade was stationed. The strike resulted in the destruction of various military equipment and vehicles, including a KT-L tow truck, a tank repair workshop (TRM-80), and an armored repair and evacuation vehicle (BREM-1). Additionally, the attack led to the loss of life among the personnel, with 4 servicemen from the tank company and 7 servicemen from the repair company and two military police representatives being reported killed.
Russian oil refinery in Komi Republic catches fire, casualties reported. A Russian oil refinery in the northwestern Komi Republic caught fire on June 2, leading to casualties, the Komi Republic’s Investigative Committee said.
June 2: an attack on a Russian Defense Ministry deployment site in the Korochansky district in the Bilhorod region resulted in several units of Russian military equipment being burned and three servicemen wounded. An explosion during the fire led to the death of Igor V. Nechiporenko, deputy head of the district administration. The blast also injured Nikolai Vasilyevich Nesterov, head of the district, and two rural settlement leaders, as well as three servicemen.
More strikes: An ammunition depot caught fire near Gremuchii in the Bilhorod region yesterday, following an explosion in a Russian military camp. The blast, caused by careless handling of ammunition, led to a fire and injured seven military personnel, who were hospitalized. Gremuchii is located about 39 kilometers north of Bilhorod and over 63 kilometers from the Ukraine border.
A fuel depot in Novosibirsk is on fire, the fire area is 4,500 square meters.
Behind the Lines
‘A ceasefire is a trap:’ Forcing Ukraine to compromise with Russia would weaken US, Zelensky warns Trump. President Volodymyr Zelensky told the Guardian in an interview he believes such an approach would green light further attacks by Russia, “reducing to zero” the U.S.’s global influence.
Ansa: Zelensky will take part in the G7 summit, which will take place on June 13-15 in Brindisi, Italian Prime Minister Meloni reports. During the summit, a plan to use frozen Russian assets for the benefit of Ukraine is expected to be approved.
“Unfortunately, I cannot confirm or deny that the President will physically participate in the G7 summit, but in any case, whether online or physically, there is no doubt that he will be there,” the president’s spokesman, Sergiy Nikiforov told Ukrainian television, according to AFP.
A fire broke out at the Russkaya compressor station near Anapa, Russia, with FIRMS data showing two powerful fires. The incident was reported by the Crimean Wind monitoring group but was not mentioned in official Russian media. The Russkaya CS is the starting point of the Turkish Stream gas pipeline. The cause of the fire is unknown, but it has sparked speculation about the involvement of drones.
Russian court softens restrictions on Italy's UniCredit bank. The court ruled that UniCredit could offer Russian sovereign bond holdings instead of assets to satisfy the seizure order.
French police are investigating whether the placing of 5 full-sized coffins covered with the French tricolour at the Eiffel Tower at the weekend was another act of Russian interference. Three men were formally put under investigation on Monday – the equivalent of being charged – in connection with the coffins, each of which was inscribed with “French soldiers in the Ukraine”. (Photo: Le Parisien)
Georgia's parliamentary speaker signed into law a bill on "foreign agents" that has caused a political crisis in the South Caucasus country and drawn sharp criticism from its Western allies. Meanwhile the Georgian government’s Titushy thugs are continuing attacks against Georgia’s opposition:
"A mob attacked the headquarters of Georgia’s largest opposition party last night amid what critics describe as a mounting Belarusian-style crackdown on dissent."
Zelensky arrives in Singapore for security conference. President Volodymyr Zelensky arrived in Singapore on June 1 for the Shangri-La Dialogue security conference. Zelensky met with Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin in Singapore. The delivery of F-16 to Ukraine and the signing of a security agreement were discussed.
Politico: Zelensky unleashes on Beijing, saying it’s helping Moscow threaten countries with higher food and fuel prices to convince them not to attend June 15-16 meeting: “Russia, using Chinese influence on the region, using Chinese diplomats also, does everything to disrupt the peace summit."
He added that Ukraine had evidence that China was assisting Russia's war efforts. China denies all claims.
"We do not expect military support from China. We have never asked them ... But we do not expect China to provide defense support to Russia," Zelenskyy said. "That is what we discussed with the Chinese leader by phone. He promised me China would stand aside, would not support Russia with weapons. Today, there is intelligence that somehow, some way, some things come to Russia’s markets via China … elements of Russia’s weaponry come from China."
“Russia is trying to disrupt the peace summit,” Zelenskyy said. “What Russia is doing ... it is now traveling around many countries in the world and threatening them with the blockade of agricultural goods, of food products, it is threatening to increase prices for energy, and it is pushing countries around the world so they are not present at the summit.”
China has hit back at Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s accusation that Russia and China are trying to weaken his planned global peace summit. A spokesperson for the Chinese foreign ministry has said Beijing has never “fanned fire or fuelled the flames” of the Russia-Ukraine war.
Poland will spend over 3 billion zlotys ($760m) to bolster cybersecurity, its digitalisation minister has said, after state news agency PAP was hit by a probable Russian cyberattack.
A false article about military mobilisation appeared on PAP on Friday, escalating fears of Russian interference in the European parliament elections, which will be held in Poland on Sunday. Russia denies the accusations – in Warsaw on Friday said it had no knowledge of the cyberattack.
Gawkowski said that on Sunday and Monday Poland had blocked several cyber attacks on critical infrastructure. “The Russian Federation has one goal - to destabilise the situation and ensure that the forces supporting the breakup of the EU can benefit,” he said.
The Telegraph: MI5 to shifts focus to counter-espionage amid rising Russia, China threats. The United Kingdom's domestic counter-intelligence and security agency Mi5 has been ordered to prioritize targeting spies over terrorists due to a significant recruitment drive by Russia, China, and Iran.
Meanwhile in Russia
Russia’s foreign ministry has added a number of British “establishment figures”, journalists and experts to its list of people banned from entering Russia, it has announced, saying it was doing so over their “hostile” actions.
The ministry said in a statement that it urged London to abandon its support of Ukraine. The UK has pledged £12.5bn in aid to Ukraine since February 2022. Of this total, £7.6bn is for military assistance, including £3bn for military assistance in 2024/25.
In a statement posted to its website, the ministry said that Moscow was imposing the sanctions amid the “provocative anti-Russian rhetoric of British officials” and the UK government’s role in aiding Ukraine’s military. It was not immediately clear how many individuals had been sanctioned in this round, but the statement said that local politicians and “experts covering important socio-political events in [Russia] in a negative and untrue way” were included in its “stop list”.
Russian MFA: In a phone conversation, President Vladimir Putin and President Alexander Lukashenko stressed that the highest-level talks had provided a powerful impetus to further advancement of Russia-Belarus relations of strategic partnership and alliance.
Following a report by the Financial Times that a deal between Russia and China for a major gas pipeline, the Power of Siberia-2, has stalled, both Moscow and Beijing have issued statements in support of the project. Beijing offered a statement on cooperation while the Kremlin said “there is no doubt the agreements will be reached”.
What is Beijing asking for? It concerns both prices and supply, according to the FT’s sources. The people familiar with the matter told the newspaper that China wants to pay little more than Russia’s heavily subsidised domestic prices and would only commit to buying a small proportion of the pipeline’s planned annual capacity.
What does this mean? It shows how Beijing has the upper hand in this deal – Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has left president Vladimir Putin increasingly dependent on China as Gazprom suffers heavy losses.
What is the Kremlin asking for? When Putin and Xi met last month in Beijing, Putin made three key requests, according to the people familiar with the matter. A deal on the pipeline; more Chinese bank activity in Russia; and for China to decline to attend a peace conference being organised by Ukraine.
Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov arrived in Guinea on Monday, his ministry said, in his first trip to the country in over a decade as Moscow tries to bolster its reach within Africa.
It is Lavrov’s first trip to the West African country since 2013. Russian state news agency Tass said Guinea would be part of a tour of African countries but did state which other nations Lavrov would visit.
He had hailed the “commitment of all our states to the formation of a just and democratic multipolar world order” during a statement to the media following the summit. But the Kremlin also blamed a low turnout in 2023 – just 17 heads of states attended the conference - on “interventions” by western powers.
Hungary undecided on peace summit participation due to Russia's absence, Hungarian FM says. Hungary respects Switzerland's efforts to achieve peace but doubts whether the summit makes sense if "there aren't both parties to the war" present, according to the minister.
Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergei Ryabkov, issued a warning to the US against making “mistakes that may have fatal consequences” by allowing Ukraine to strike targets on Russian soil.
“I would like to warn American leaders against miscalculations that could have fatal consequences. For unknown reasons, they underestimate the seriousness of the rebuff they may receive,” state news agency RIA quoted Ryabkov as saying.
“I urge these figures (in the U.S.) ... to spend some of their time, which they apparently spend on some kind of video games, judging by the lightness of their approach, on studying what was said in detail by Putin,” Ryabkov said, referring to comments made last week by Russian president Vladimir Putin, who warned that Nato countries were risking a serious escalation in the conflict.
Allied Support
Estonia’s prime minister Kaja Kallas has said that there is “no Plan B for a Russian victory, because then we would stop focusing on Plan A”, helping Ukraine push back the Russian invasion.
“We should not give in to pessimism. Victory in Ukraine is not just about territory. If Ukraine joins Nato, even without some territory, then that’s a victory because it will be placed under the Nato umbrella.”
BBC: France has authorized the targeting of military airfields in the Bilhorod and Kursk regions with SCALP-EG cruise missiles. The BBC article referred to quotes an anonymous military aviation officer, who makes an assessment of Macron's previously used words.
Romania considers supplying Ukraine with Patriot system, Romanian PM says. Romania is considering equipping Ukraine with advanced Patriot defense systems to counter Russian attacks. However, President Klaus Iohannis clarified that such a decision would require approval from an autonomous administrative authority responsible for coordinating national defense and security activities.
G7, EU want to target banks helping Russia evade sanctions, Bloomberg reports. In particular, the allies are considering steps against banks using SPFS, Russia's alternative to the SWIFT messaging system, to circumvent trade restrictions, the outlet said.
Poland has arrested 18 people on allegations of pursuing pro-Russian and pro-Belarusian hostile actions, including a person alleged to have been involved in a plan to assassinate Ukraine’s president Zelensky. Ten of those arrested since December were directly involved in planning various forms of sabotage across Poland, interior minister Tomasz Siemoniak told a news conference.
Polish authorities have linked some recent incidents of arson or attempted arson to Russian-sponsored agents. Polish, Belarusian and Ukrainian nationals are among those arrested in recent months, according to the internal security agency.
Siemoniak said that the alleged acts of sabotage were part of a broader plan including cyberattacks, directing migrants in Belarus to cross the border into Poland, and threatening Poland’s security.
“We have no doubt that on the bidding of a foreign country, Russia, there are some people active who are ready to threaten the life, health and property of the Polish citizens,” Siemoniak said.
Reuters: Claudia Sheinbaum won a landslide victory to become Mexico's first female president, inheriting the project of her mentor and outgoing leader Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador whose popularity among the poor helped drive her triumph.
Defence One: After meeting in person for the first time in more than a year, the military chiefs of the U.S. and China spent the weekend conveying contrasting messages of ease and caution, respectively, on the public stages of this year’s Shangri-La security dialogue in Singapore.
“We had a frank discussion [on Friday], and that's important,” Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said early in his remarks on stage Saturday. “There is no substitute for direct military-to-military talks between senior leaders, and there's no substitute for open lines of communication to avoid misunderstanding and miscalculations,” he said. But the heart of his messaging in Singapore concerned Washington’s allies and partners in the region.
South Korea plans to suspend a military agreement signed with North Korea in 2018 aimed at easing tensions after Seoul warned of a strong response to balloons launched by Pyongyang carrying over 600 balloons filled with trash to the South.
Elections UK: Nigel Farage announced that he’s standing as an MP — and taking over Reform UK, replacing Richard Tice.
Politico: Fed up with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s constant obstructionism on Ukraine, his fellow EU leaders plan to punish him by giving his country a weak portfolio in the next European Commission, three diplomats familiar with the discussions told POLITICO.
Hungary wants to keep the enlargement job, which has significant influence because of EU talks on Ukrainian accession into the bloc, but national governments have no appetite for Budapest’s current Commissioner Olivér Várhelyi (or any other Hungarian) continuing in such a major role, the three diplomats said.
Orbán is consistently Russian President Vladimir Putin’s closest ally in the EU and Europe’s leaders are increasingly exasperated with his foot-dragging on sanctions and his opposition to delivering funds to Kyiv.
There is hardly “even a question” of Hungary being allowed to keep control of any powerful brief, said one envoy, who like the others, was granted anonymity to discuss the sensitive talks between EU countries.
Thank goodness it’s almost over: the worst ever EU election campaign season in Italy
In April 2022, Salvini made a visit to the Polish-Ukrainian border to express his ‘solidarity’ with the Ukrainian ‘refugees’ as he called them. His hypocrisy was called out by the major. The Polish major is of the same political stripe as Salvini, so he thought he would receive a friendly welcome. As he always does, Salvini failed to read the room: the Poles have a long memory when it comes to Russia, and anyone who supports it. He gave Salvini a special gift as a reminder of his true loyalty.
The League’s chief was trying to re-brand his image as ‘peace-maker’. At this time behind the lines, one of his aides was in contact with a Russian embassy contact to arrange Salvini’s trip to Moscow under the guise of ‘peace talks’. It was later revealed that the Russian embassy also paid for Salvini’s ticket to Moscow. On the surface, it was most likely a political action meant to put a spanner in the European Union and NATO unity, but I wouldn’t be surprised if there were other goals since Salvini was supposed to meet with senior Russian authorities, and then on the second leg of his trip, he was set to visit Beijing as well.
All this comes to mind as we head into the last week of the European Parliamentary elections, which has brought the sorry state of Italian politics to the surface.
For the European Parliamentary elections, Salvini has groomed a new protégé, Roberto Vannacci—an Italian general whose last posting was in Moscow. So on brand. The League’s regional governors and representatives at the grassroots level despise Vannacci in private, and barely recognise his candidacy in public due to his far-right affiliations and themes which appeal to the League’s neo-Fascist element. Salvini is steering the League into the far reaches of the right-wing, and in my opinion, will drive conservative and more moderate voters into Meloni’s Brothers of Italy or other parties.
It will be interesting to see how many votes the League manages to scrape up in these elections. Their messaging is a mix of populist solutions to grave problems as well as the unilateral disarmament of Ukraine and the lifting of sanctions against Russia. It’s important for the League to have as many representatives in Brussels as possible to support their Hungarian and Slovakian counterparts, who have tried to obstruct aid to Ukraine, and eat away at European unity, thereby providing Russia and China space to manuevre in Europe.
However, when it comes to Italian foreign and security policy regarding Russia’s war against Ukraine, Salvini isn’t alone in his obstructionist position. Unsurprisingly, there is only one Italian party in the up-coming elections that has a clear position regarding support for Ukraine, NATO, and the Transatlantic partnership.
During the campaign, Meloni’s Brothers of Italy has been highly reticent to mention Ukraine or Italy’s foreign policy for that matter, and when forced to do so, the Italian foreign minister, Antonio Tajani, and defence minister, Giudo Crosetto, have vehemently reiterated that Italy will not allow its weapons to be used against legitimate Russian military targets, using the Italian constitution as an excuse.
Mind you, Ukraine isn’t waiting around for Italian armaments to win the war since Italy’s contribution is quite insignificant. There is also the issue of Italy’s betrayal of trust with regards its security partners. To this day, the French and other states remember the allegations of Italy bribing Taliban fighters to redirect their operations towards French positions in Afghanistan in 2008. NATO denied these claims at the time, but contacts at NATO tell me today the trust in Italy’s reliability in general is still extremely low. What the most recent statements from the Italian foreign ministry and defence show is that the Italy has not decoupled from Russia yet.
I have many contacts in the centre-left faction who do support Ukraine, and fully realise that Russia is a security threat, but the party has been hijacked by its far-left elements calling for ‘peace at all costs’ due to Russian nuclear sabre-rattling and a heavy dose of an anti-Americanism vein within the party. The populist 5 Star Movement, headed by former prime minister, Giuseppe Conte, is hiding behind the ‘peace’ theme as well, which translates into unilateral disarmament of Ukraine. Conte is right on cue for his support for Russia: it was his party that had invited the Russian military and GRU agents into Italy during the Covid pandemic, and formally ousted Mario Draghi from his post as prime minister.
That said, Russia hasn’t taken over all of Italy just yet: Italian institutions are still intact for now, and Italian authorities understand the importance of the Europe’s security architecture, and international law. In his June 2 speech, the Italian president, Sergio Mattarella, reminded everyone that Russia is the aggressor in the war, and it is Russia that poses the greatest threat to European security and democracy. That the Italian president felt the need to reiterate this simple fact is indicative of how significant the information campaign is in Italy regarding the war against Ukraine. I also believe it was a public reminder of Italy’s position vis-a-vis our security partners and its commitment to them. It’s too bad president Mattarella isn’t running in the EU parliamentary elections.
Soldatov & Borogan: Russia’s Military Shaken as Top-Level Purge Unfolds
Taken together, the arrests of at least four senior officers amount to the most serious attack on the Russian military in close to 25 years of Putin’s rule.
One by one, military officials are being thrown into jail. With the situation on the battlefield in Ukraine looking more favorable for the Kremlin than for some time, Putin appears to think this an appropriate moment to punish the army for the failures of 2022.
His repressive instrument of choice is, as always, his security service the FSB.
The campaign started within the Ministry of Defense, taking as its first victim Deputy Minister Timur Ivanov on April 23. This did not raise many eyebrows — Ivanov was famous for his lavishly luxurious lifestyle, which had long suggested possible corruption.
It is notable that none of the charges relate to the conduct of Russia’s war in Ukraine. All are corruption-related, alleging massive fraud and large-scale bribe-taking.
In all cases the scheme of an attack is identical — while the criminal case is examined by the Investigative Committee, a sort of Russian FBI, the Committee uses the materials provided by the Military Counterintelligence department of the FSB (DVKR – Department Voeinnoi Konttrazvedki.)
The DVKR’s name suggests it aims to identify foreign spies in the Russian army, but that’s not exactly the case: the department has been always considered a tool to keep the military obedient, a way to secure the army’s loyalty to the existing regime.
Putin realized the need for such an organization almost immediately after he came to power in 2000. As early as February of that year, he signed into law the “Regulations for FSB Directorates in the Armed Forces,” which expanded the functions of military counterintelligence and gave it the power to fight organized crime. [continue]