Jun 3: Saturday Stories
Day 464: Kyiv Shebekino Belgorod Berdyansk Bakhmut shipsblocked agents drones PutinPalace RUoil Gepard Starlink EU Orban Lebedev TNTJP BRICS A&P BBC Ilves KFOR Pichler Hodges Blinken ShangrilaDialogue
Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
Stories we’re following…
Valerii Zaluzhnyi, commander-in-chief of the armed forces of Ukraine, has posted some more details of Russia’s overnight attack on Kyiv to his official Telegram channel. There was a 6-minute interval between the air alert and the subsequent explosions in the city. He writes:
“Around 11pm the enemy attacked Kyiv with Shahed-136/131 kamikaze drones. At about 3am, Kh-101/Kh-555 cruise missiles launched by Tu-95ms strategic bombers from the Caspian Sea were already in the airspace of Ukraine. All 15 cruise missiles and 21 attack drones were destroyed by the forces and means of air defence of the air force, in cooperation with the air defence systems of the defence forces of Ukraine.”
Governor: Russian forces killed 3, injured 12 in Donetsk Oblast on June 1, Governor Pavlo Kyrylenko wrote on Telegram. According to Kyrylenko, the two civilians were killed in attacks on Avdiivka and Chasiv Yar.
Shebekino residents spend the night in shelters: More than 1,600 residents of Shebekino, a small town in southwestern Russia, spent Thursday night in shelters in the regional capital of Belgorod after a chaotic day of drone and rocket attacks on the town that reportedly left at least 12 injured.
The governor of Russia’s Belgorod region said on Friday that 2 people had been killed and 2 injured when Ukrainian forces shelled Maslova Pristan near the Ukrainian border. “Fragments of the shells hit passing cars. Two women were travelling in one of them. They died from their injuries on the spot,” Reuters reports governor Vyacheslav Gladkov said.
Drone attacks reported in Russian city of Kursk. Drones were downed over the western Russian city of Kursk overnight on June 2, Kursk Oblast Governor Roman Starovoyt said in a Telegram post. Several explosions occurred in the occupied Berdyansk, Zaporozhye region. Videos posted on social media show a rising column of smoke in the port area. [Video via Alex Kokcharov]
Two long-range drones attacked fuel and energy infrastructure in Russia’s Smolensk region overnight on Friday, but no injuries or fires were reported, the region’s acting governor said.
Western official: Russia suffered 60,000 casualties in Bakhmut. Russia has suffered over 60,000 casualties as of June 1 in its assault on the Ukrainian city of Bakhmut, according to a Western official, British broadcasting organization Sky News reported.
The Russian military concentrates its main efforts on defensive operations in all directions, trying to complete the capture of Maryinka, locally improve its tactical position in the Kupyansk, Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and Maryinka directions
Russian forces aim to capture Khromove to set conditions for future efforts to advance towards Kramatorsk. Intensified artillery fire has been observed in the area to support this objective.
Russian shaping operations: The Russian military command transfers irregular formations and units of the so-called DNR from the Avdiivka area to the Bakhmut area. Russian forces are replacing old and worn-out equipment, including T-72 and T-62 tanks, and air defense systems in southern Ukraine. The equipment is being moved towards Mangush and Berdyansk, fearing Ukrainian strikes on Mariupol.
Russia relaunched its food blackmail by unilaterally applying unlawful restrictions to registering ships heading to Ukrainian ports under the Black Sea Grain Initiative, demanding facilitation of its fertilizer export.
Russian occupiers are expanding their agent network in the temporarily occupied territory of Ukraine, reports Hanna Maliar, Deputy Minister of Defense of Ukraine. Law enforcement agencies are forcing local transport services to identify people with pro-Ukrainian sentiments in Kherson, Donetsk and Luhansk regions. She added that local companies and individual carriers were warned that if they didn’t comply with these ‘requests’, their contracts would be terminated. At the same time, the transport market in the temporarily occupied territory is increasingly dominated by Russian companies.”
The "primaries" of the Russian ruling party "United Russia" in Kherson Oblast saw minimal participation, primarily involving collaborators and their relatives, stated Yuriy Sobolevsky, the first deputy chairman of the Kherson regional council. Sobolevsky highlighted instances where individuals were coerced into participating.
The Berdyansk city military administration report that two Russian ships entered the port of the temporarily occupied Berdyansk of the Zaporizhzhia Oblast, where they are being loaded with grain and metal stolen from Ukrainian owners. The local residents have observed incidents like this in April of this year, the administration said.
50 vessels are awaiting inspection in Turkish territorial waters loaded with 2.4 million tonnes of Ukrainian agricultural commodities ready to be exported to countries in need. Some vessels had been waiting for inspections for more than three months. Moscow demands to facilitate its export of fertilizers via Ukraine's territory, while it refuses to extend the number of Ukrainian ports and goods for Ukraine to export. Meanwhile, Russia boosted its fertilizers exports to India to over $3 billion (some 34 million tons of fertilizers of 55 million it produces annually) in 2022-2023.
The visual below shows us the intensity of drones that have been shot down by Ukrainian defence over the city of Kyiv in the month of May 2023.
Some Russian schools have begun to purchase "training drones" and other equipment to teach children how to fly drones, according to an iStories investigation. in St. Petersburg, two schools plan to spend one million rubles each on the purchase of drones for children. School No. 525 will be supplied with kits “for self-assembly of quadrocopters”, and from September 1, the program “Designing and programming UAVs” for schoolchildren aged 12-15 will open there.
Putin built a "Tsarskoye Selo" in Novo-Ogaryovo near Moscow and distributed land around the residence to his relatives. Through nominees and foreign offshore companies, he bought up plots and houses around his residence and distributed them to relatives, writes Proekt, having studied the correspondence of Putin's former son-in-law Kirill Shamalov. Putin, within the framework of the law on guarantees to the ex-president, secured the right to use the estate in Novo-Ogaryovo for the rest of his life.
The trade imbalance between Russia and India is depriving Moscow of billions of dollars in oil revenues. Due to restrictions on the convertibility of the rupee, to which countries have tried to transfer settlements, Russian exporters cannot withdraw money, and they accumulate in Indian banks. According to Bloomberg Economics, due to the trade imbalance, every quarter the amount of funds that Russia cannot use increases by up to $3 billion. There’s no way for the Russians to get to this money for now.
The U.S. Department of Defense will buy Gepard self-propelled anti-air systems for Ukraine worth $118.3 million, the Pentagon announced in a press release on June 1. A Florida-based company Global Military Products has received the contract for the purchase and delivery of the German-made 35-mm Gepard anti-aircraft systems.
The US is seeking to secure supplies of TNT in Japan for 155mm artillery shells, as Washington rushes weapons and ammunition to Ukraine for a counteroffensive against Russia, two people familiar with the matter said. For Japan, any procurement would test its willingness to court controversy to help Kyiv.
Secretary of State Anthony Blinken: “A cease-fire that simply freezes current lines in place - and enables Putin to consolidate control over the territory he has seized, and rest, rearm, and re-attack - is not a just and lasting peace...It would reward the aggressor and punish the victim.”
Starlink, the satellite communications service started by Elon Musk, now has a Department of Defence contract to buy those satellite services for Ukraine, the Pentagon said in a statement.
EU allocates $54 million to Ukraine for provisional bridges. The European Investment Bank (EIB) will allocate 50 million euros to Ukraine's State Agency for the Reconstruction and Development of Infrastructure for the purchase of provisional bridges, the agency announced on June 2.
The European Parliament voted (446 aiys and 67 neys) for a draft of the Act in Support of Ammunition Production aimed to accelerate the delivery of ammunition and missiles to Ukraine and to help member states restock their arsenals. It envisages €500 million in financing.
Scholz, Macron: Ukraine needs clear security guarantees from NATO allies, not membership. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and French President Emmanuel Macron both emphasized the necessity of security guarantees for Ukraine over NATO membership status while speaking at the second European Political Community Summit (EPC) in Moldova on June 1.
Hungarian Prime Minister opposes Ukrainian counter-offensive. Viktor Orban believes that it will only lead to new victims, primarily from Ukraine. He said:
This is the business of the Ukrainians, and I do not want to appropriate military laurels for myself. But even a person like me, who served a year and a half in the army, knows for sure - even without military academic knowledge - that if I attack, then I will have three times more casualties than someone who defends himself. And for a country whose population is only a small part of the population of the opposing side, massive military operations in such conditions are a bloodbath. We must do everything, even before the counterattack begins, to convince the parties of the need for a ceasefire and peace negotiations.
Tortoise media reports that the owner of the Independent and London’s Evening Standard newspaper Alexander Lebedev has been targeted for sanctions by Ukraine. It states that Ukraine’s decision to impose sanctions on Lebedev was “made by the country’s national security and Defence Council on 19 October 2022, but has not previously been reported.”
Ukrainian prosecutors officially charged 35 persons with war crimes against children. Indictments against 30 persons have been sent to the court. 11 people were convicted.
BRICS foreign ministers asserted their bloc's ambition to rival Western powers but their talks in South Africa were overshadowed by questions over whether Russia's president would be arrested if he attended a summit in August. South Africa's foreign minister Naledi Pandor said her country was mulling options if Vladimir Putin. The ministers also discussed plans to potentially admit new members to the club.
China's Vice Minister Ma Zhaoxu said his country was happy about the prospect of more countries joining BRICS as it would increase the influence of the bloc and give it more power to serve the interests of developing countries. Iran and Saudi Arabia, along with Venezuela, Argentina, Algeria and the United Arab Emirates are among those that have either formally applied to join BRICS or expressed interest, officials said.
The Shangri-La Dialogue, which attracts senior military officers, diplomats, weapons makers and security analysts from around the globe, is taking place June 2-4 in Singapore. This is Asia’s top security meeting. Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese will deliver the keynote address on Friday evening, before U.S. Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin and China's new Defence Minister Li Shangfu are expected to trade barbs in speeches over the weekend. The relationship between the U.S. and China is at its lowest point in decades, as the two superpowers remain deeply divided over everything from the sovereignty of Taiwan to cyber espionage and territorial disputes in the South China Sea. Follow the Dialogue here.
KFOR attacked in Kosovo
An American NATO soldier tells us what happened when NATO soldiers were attacked by Srpska Lista senior officials. Srpska Lista is directly controlled by Serbian government. [Video via Admirim]
Scott Ritter upset over criticism
Scott Ritter has returned. In the following clip, he’s taken aback at the criticism of Russian life. Should we keep harping on the fact that so many Russian regions do not have toilets or running water? Yes, because it speaks to important issues regarding the Russian state and its relationship with its own citizens.
Scott is correct when he says that the lack of toilets is due to canalisation issues—that’s how water is brought into homes across Russia, and everywhere else in the world. There are areas in the world that do not have extensive canalisation infrastructure, and I still respect them. Russia is not among them.
The Russian ministries diverted funds from canalisation infrastructure projects, among others, and put those financial resources into the arms industry, as I have written about in a previous post about the ‘Family Guy’. Instead of focusing on providing services for its own citizens, the Russian government put that idea aside, and decided to wage a full-scale war on Ukraine. Russian state broadcasters focus all their attention on what is happening in Ukraine and hurling insults and threats to Ukraine’s allies instead of shedding light on the basics that many Russians don’t enjoy.
What is slowly emerging in the Russian regional press is that regional heads have started soliciting the central government for funds. It seems some are in dire straits. There are also indications coming from the occupied territories, for example in Crimea, where the salaries of public administration staff (educators, healthcare workers) aren’t being paid. I wonder if this is also happening in other areas outside Moscow and St Petersberg.
Scott would prefer to talk to himself or Russian aligned media than to debate these points or anything substantive. This is what all propagandists do if you’ve noticed: they operate in well-constructed silos.
In a speech at the Helsinki City Hall on Friday, Secretary of State Anthony Blinken said that, "President Putin has diminished Russian influence on every continent". Russia has lost more than 100,000 troops and has become a former shadow of itself because it had pursued the path of war.
Dietmar Pichler: Russian justifications
When certain individuals superficially condemn the Russian invasion of Ukraine and then proceed to present a long list of Russian narratives to justify it, they are supporting Russian propaganda
There is a reason why such individuals are invited and quoted on Russian state TV.This is particularly applicable when these influential individuals reach people outside of the pro-Russian bubble. It helps the Kremlin to propagate not necessarily their entire viewpoint, but at least to sow doubts, confusion, and shift responsibility.
Why was Jeffrey Sachs on Russian TV? For two reasons: Firstly, for the domestic audience, to demonstrate "look, even Westerners don't agree with Western politicians" and secondly: They appear "credible" when they make statements like "war is not pleasant."
The architects of Russian disinformation campaigns are well aware that they cannot convince everyone to openly support the Russian invasion. Their next best strategy is to support anyone who demonizes the West and Ukraine.
"War is not pleasant, the war needs to stop, Russia was provoked, and Ukraine and NATO are also to blame" is the mindset they aim to create, which is almost as advantageous for the Kremlin as openly supporting the invasion and its goals.
Trump was a construction worker in another galaxy
Programming note
Informative interview. Russia could be 'cracked open' if Putin cannot get control of his 'warlords' Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges tells Kate Gerbeau on Times Radio Frontline.