Jun 30: E-Stories
Day 491: Zalisne ZNPP Tokmak Bakhmut TrollFarm Surovikin Sobol Malofeev Zuppi Belarus Switzerland LITH EU Israel Germany Rosatom A&P ISW UKDef Rosenberg Scarr Gic ERIC WaPo Byline Iacoboni
Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
Stories we’re following…
In a post to social media President Zelenesky has described Ukraine’s path to victory as “difficult” but that they would achieve it. The Ukrainian president wrote:
We have to realise that the path to our victory is difficult. And now, no one can say when we will complete it. But when the goal is clear and fair, it does not matter how thorny the path to this goal is. Ukraine will walk this path to victory! And this is no longer a dream – it is a reality.
Governor: Russia hits relief center in Kherson, killing 2 civilians. Russian troops struck a relief center in Kherson on June 29, killing two civilians and injuring two more, according to Kherson Oblast Governor Oleksandr Prokudin. The attack occurred when residents came to the place, known as the "invincibility center," to receive humanitarian aid, Prokudin said. According to the Prosecutor General's Office, warehouses and other civilian infrastructure facilities were damaged in the attack.
Suspilne, Ukraine's state broadcaster, reports that yesterday in Donetsk region 11 settlements were fired upon, killing one person. Citing the Donetsk police force, it reported that in Zalisne “two apartment buildings and a private house, and a bank building were damaged by shelling, electricity was cut off.”
War update: Fierce battles raging in Lyman, Bakhmut, Marinka directions. Russian troops continue focusing efforts on the Lyman, Bakhmut and Marinka directions. Fierce battles are underway as reported by Ukrinform.
Ukrainian authorities start training to prepare for possible Russian attack on Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant. Large-scale special exercises have begun in Ukraine to prepare for a potential Russian attack at the occupied Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, the state nuclear energy agency Energoatom reported on June 29.
Official: Ukrainian forces make gains in Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia oblasts. As part of its counteroffensive efforts, Ukraine's military has advanced 1,300 meters toward Russian-occupied Berdiansk, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar reported on June 29.
Ukraine’s defence forces continue to make gains on the Tavriia front, where they destroyed 19 pieces of Russian military equipment over the course of the past 24 hours; up to three companies of Russian troops were injured or killed, reports Brigadier General Oleksandr Tarnavskyi, Commander of the Tavriia Operational and Strategic Group of Forces, on Telegram.
Ukrainian long range artillery hit and destroyed an ammunition warehouse, 11 artillery units at firing positions, 3 anti-aircraft devices, 2 RW stations and one important target of Russian forces.
Tokmak: three large explosions were heard near Tokmak at roughly 12:30 pm and a fire suddenly broke out at one of the enterprises in Nizhny Novgorod.
Ukrainian military analyst Oleksander Musiyenko said Ukrainian gains on the fringes of Bakhmut were probably a prelude for plans to recapture other areas, including the long-contested towns of Aviivka and Maryinka.
“It makes no sense to enter Bakhmut itself now. The risk is too great,” he told Ukrainian NV Radio “But in the east, Ukraine has gradually taken over the initiative. Ukraine has improved its tactical positions without sending in significant reserves.”
Tass is reporting that the Russian Federation is opening criminal cases against what it claims are 160 mercenaries from 33 different countries who are operating on behalf of Ukrainian forces in the country.
As a result of interaction with the ministry of defence of the Russian Federation and other operational services, evidence of the participation of mercenaries from Georgia, the US, Latvia, Sweden and other states has been collected. Currently, 160 foreigners from 33 countries are being prosecuted.
The St Petersburg troll factory and Prigozhin’s media assets have been seized by the Russian intelligence services, including all equipment in the offices in St Petersburg, as reported by some staff members of the the troll factory in The Bell.
Social media was ablaze last night as rumours circulated about the arrest and/or disappearance of general Gerasimov, Gen Sergei Surovikin, and now Surovikin’s deputy, Yudin, who reportedly has been fired.
Russian general Surovikin arrested over Wagner rebellion. Russian General Sergei Surovikin has been arrested, the Moscow Times wrote on June 28, citing its sources in Russia's Defense Ministry.
The Kremlin has refused to clarify the fate of Gen Sergei Surovikin, who has not been seen in public since Saturday. Asked by reporters if the Kremlin could clarify the situation with Surovikin, Peskov said: “No, unfortunately not.”
LATEST: Gen Sergei Surovikin has been detained in Russia, the Financial Times reports. Three people familiar with the matter told the Financial Times that Surovikin was being detained. It is not clear whether Surovikin has been charged as a plotter in the uprising led by Prigozhin on Saturday, or simply detained for interrogation.
We know that Ramzan Kadyrov is still alive because Putin met with him on June 27, Kremlin Press Secretary Peskov admits post factum. This little tidbit is quite interesting given the fact that Kadyrov’s military units took their time to get to Rostov when ordered by the Kremlin.
Intelligence chief: Wagner Group will no longer fight in Ukraine. Head of military intelligence, Kyrylo Budanov, told Ukrainska Pravda on June 29 that Wagner Group mercenaries will no longer fight on the territory of Ukraine.
Russian propagandists have shown video footage of dictator Vladimir Putin greeting a stunned crowd on a walkabout in a square in Derbent during his visit to Dagestan. The president of the aggressor country was not deterred by the sanitary restrictions that he has been adhering to since the beginning of the Covid-19 pandemic. (Monique: I don’t think this was Putin since he never just ‘strolls’ the streets, and has shown that he never touches people. The location was chosen because Dagestan has registered a very high number of KIA in Russia’s war in Ukraine. It’s an attempt at showing unassuming TV watchers that Putin actually cares about Russians.)
Fareed’s Global Briefing highlights comments from Liana Fix and Michael Kimmage who write for Foreign Affairs.
“What will follow this rebellion is an interlude of distraction, recrimination, and uncertainty, as Putin deals not only with the logistics of getting things back to normal but also with the humiliation he has just been dealt and the revenge he is likely to pursue. None of this will pass quickly. … The United States and its allies will have to manage and mitigate the consequences of instability in Russia. In all scenarios, the West will need to seek transparency about the control of Russian nuclear weapons … Instability in Russia is unlikely to stay in Russia. It could spread across the region, from Armenia to Belarus.”
I don’t think Ukraine’s allies should try to figure out if Putin’s successor will be more or less bellicose. Russia should be contained in any event as it has sought to disrupt the international order via military means.
Media: Investigation reveals Russian soldiers acted 'on command' at Kakhovka dam. Journalists from Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty and Slidstvo.info have identified members of the Russian military who controlled the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant at the time of the dam explosion on June 6, according to a joint investigation.
From July 1, Russian hospitals will start treating homosexuality. You read that right, cure. “Sexologists” will be placed in psychiatric wards or psychiatric polyclinics, and The State Duma recommended that the heads of Russian regions limit the issuance of abortion licenses to private clinics to stimulate the birth rate in the country.
Steve Rosenberg: Today’s (June 28) Russian papers on the aftermath of the Wagner mutiny. One paper concludes: “Yevgeny Prigozhin’s actions have created a precedent. The possibility of this precedent repeating must, not only, be blocked. It must be completely cemented over.”
Cardinal Zuppi, envoy for the Vatican, arrived in Moscow yesterday and is meeting with Patriarch Kirill and Maria Lvova Belova today. Patriach Kirill was once a KGB officer, is closely linked to Putin personally, and there’s an ICC arrest warrant out for Belova for war crimes. It seems that this post is a warning to certain participants in the Ukrainian 10-pt peace formula presented a few days ago in Copenhagen.
Belarus blocks Ukrainian news sites for allegedly 'discrediting Lukashenko'. Belarus has started to block access several Ukrainian news websites for allegedly "discrediting the President of the Republic of Belarus," the Belarusian Prosecutor General's Office announced on June 28.
Suspilne reports that the distribution of humanitarian aid in Nevske in the Ukraine-controlled portion of Luhansk has been paused after Russian shelling. Artem Lysohor said there were no casualties or injuries, but that due to the deterioration of the security situation, the humanitarian aid would be distributed later.
Lithuania restricts transit of dual-use goods that could end up in Russia, Belarus. The Lithuania government approved a temporary ban on the land transport of dual-use goods that could reach Russia or Belarus and be used in the war against Ukraine, Baltic News Agency (BNS) reported on June 28.
Switzerland joins EU in expanding sanctions against Russia. Switzerland is expanding its sanctions against Russia in line with the EU’s 11th package of sanctions, the Swiss government announced on June 28.
The Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, said he had rejected calls from Washington and Kyiv to arm Ukraine due to “concerns that I don’t think any of the western allies of Ukraine have”. He said he also had fears that Israeli weaponry could be captured in Ukraine and turned over to Iran, specifically the Iron Dome air defence system, which was developed with the US. “If that system were to fall into the hands of Iran, then millions of Israelis would be left defenseless and imperiled,” he said.
Kaja Kallas, Prime Minister of Estonia, said that Ukraine will not receive "any shortcuts" on the way to the EU and must fulfil all the criteria for starting accession negotiations. "We supported the expansion, and we told Ukraine and Moldova that you must fulfil the criteria 100%. There will be no shortcuts for you," Kallas said.
The EU should not “lower the bar” on membership for Ukraine in terms of corruption and democracy, Denmark’s foreign minister has warned in an interview with the Financial Times, saying to do so would risk “importing instability”. Lars Løkke Rasmussen told the newspaper Denmark supported EU membership for Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia and the western Balkans but that “geopolitical circumstances” did not justify skating over governance reforms. (Monique: Starting in June 2022, Ukraine has taken decisive steps to root out corruption in various ministries and high level government offices. The process will take time, but current efforts at cleaning house will bear fruits. Follow Daria Kaleniuk and Olena Halushka for up-dates on this issue.)
Britain's plan to deport asylum seekers to Rwanda is unlawful, London’s Court of Appeal ruled, in a major setback for Prime Minister Rishi Sunak. Britain's government planned to send tens of thousands of asylum seekers more than 4,000 miles to the East African country. (This is good news.)
What was not on everyone’s radar
In the past two days, there were two events that fell off of everyone’s radar. Last night, Lyubov Sobol, Navalny’s lawyer, had a spat with former members of Navalny’s team at FBK. She accused Leonid Volkov of “pocketing money” from FBK funds and in no uncertain terms, told Maria Pevchikh, a close FBK collaborator, to fuck off. I’m not sure what this was all about frankly. We’ll see what emerges in the next few days. And then this little tidbit from Olga Lautman, my Kremlin File colleague and expert on Russia and Ukraine:
I’d also like to bring up another issue that needs attention. The US is still buying uranium from Russia. The Russian share of this market in the US is 15%. There are other suppliers that the US could turn to for uranium, namely Canada and Kazakhstan. Why is this important: Rosatom uses uranium imports to keep it going, and there are reports that they are actively aiding in the Russia’s war of aggression in Ukraine.
There were rumblings in the energy market in May 2022 of a possible American embargo on uranium imports to the US, but in the end, American lawmakers have decided to cut back imports through legislation in May 2023 leading to a zero imports by 2028. I’ll be investigating the lobby group that was working on this outcome, and why Rosatom still hasn’t been sanctioned by the US or the European Union.
Inside Biden’s dramatic backchannel to Russia as a near-coup unfolded—Politico
Using a regular diplomatic channel, administration officials told counterparts inside President Vladimir Putin’s suddenly wobbly government that the White House viewed the mutiny led by the Wagner Group’s Yevgeny Prigozhin as an internal Russian matter. They would not be making any changes to U.S. or NATO troop positions. There was no need, the U.S. side made clear, for any direct talks between Biden and Putin or other high-ranking officials.
“Everything was done to ensure that Russia didn’t see an American hand in all this,” said Ian Bremmer, the president of the Eurasia Group who first wrote about the backchannel conversation in his weekly client newsletter. “From a U.S. perspective, that was actually quite useful, being able to communicate to Moscow that America’s policy is to defend Ukraine and help them get their land back but that it’s not regime change or destroying Russia.” [continue]
ERIC: RT still operating in Germany
This story broke yesterday in Tagesspiegel, but it’s behind a paywall and I didn’t have access to post it in E-Stories. Sergej Sumlenny at ERIC has interviewed one of the investigative journalists who worked on the investigation.
An investigation by the German newspaper Tagesspiegel discovered that Russia's EU-sanctioned video news agency Ruptly, a subsidiary of the Russia Today (RT) propaganda TV channel, continues to operate in Berlin. German authorities refused to investigate the case, according to journalists. The European Resilience Initiative Center recorded an exclusive interview with Olha Konsevych, a member of the Tagesspiegel's investigative team.
Byline Times: Johnson’s ties to Lebedev
Jacopo Iacoboni is the top expert on Russian interference and capture in Italy. He and his colleague Gianluca Paolucci, have co-authored two important books on the topic: “Oligarchi” and “Il Tesoro di Putin” in Italian. We are awaiting the English version. Italy is a safe haven for many GRU operatives and many Italian politicians, entrepreneurs, and academics have long-standing ties to Russia that date back to the Soviet Union.
Russian oligarchs and businesspeople have taken up residency in Italy in some of the most exclusive areas in Sardegna, Umbria, and Toscana to name a few.
I’ve spoken on Kremlin File and EuroFile with Jacopo several times. I’ll invite him and Gianluca on again to talk about their latest findings.
"You never leave the KGB... you're a dead man if you try to quit"
Jacopo Iacoboni is an investigative journalist who got his hands on an Italian intelligence report that says Boris Johnson's friend and "former" KGB spy Alexander Lebedev is still working for the Russian state.
He knows exactly what's going on and why Boris Johnson's murky links to the Lebedevs poses such a risk to national security.
Watch John Sweeney’s investigation into Johnson's KGB ties at http://Byline.tv/Kompromat